2024 U.S. Presidential election

[Bostondevil]

One question I have is: What are the odds that both of the front runners will still be hale and hearty a year from now? Spring chickens they aren't.

Trump thought a picture of E. Jean Carroll was his ex-wife Marla. I know the press has been using that to show that E. Jean Carroll was exactly the kind of woman Trump was attracted to but the two women don't look that much alike. Some enterprising opponent could start questioning Trump's ability to recognize friends and family. I'm surprised no one has yet, quite frankly. Trump could very well be vulnerable in that area.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Appeal to younger voters. Will enough of Trump's base still be alive in a year to vote for him?

https://split-ticket.org/2023/05/08/a-generational-cliff/

Article looking at voter registration and party affiliation among the yutes (the whaaaaaaaat?!?!). If Democrats can roll out the youth vote (and interestingly they did in 2020, but didn't as much in 2022 midterms) then NC becomes very much in play. Honestly I am much more skeptical of youth turnout than you generally are. In NC specifically, the new head of the Democratic party is a 25 year old female from Person County who vows to target rural areas of the state. NC has the 2nd largest rural population in the US behind Texas and the Democratic party has largely left those areas in the last 2 decades. The margins are really low here and if she can somehow mobilize the youth vote and claw back some of the Republican vote counts in rural counties, then she is making a template that Democrats can and should use nationally. Especially given their huge advantage in youth party affiliation.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Any chance that anyone challenges Biden in a primary?

Not any meaningful candidates. Historically challenges to an incumbent REALLY hurt the incumbent and ruin the career of the challenger.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Many political observers say all that matters is Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona. If the Democrats win any of those, it is a done deal. The presumption is that if Pennsylvania or Michigan are really in play, the Democrats are doomed anyway. Similarly, if North Carolina is in play, the GOP candidate is probably already toast. I think Nevada and perhaps New Hampshire could also be very close in a tight election, but neither of them have enough EVs to swing the election one way or the other the way GA, WI, and AZ do.

I agree with this. Both sides, but particularly the Democrats, have devoted a lot of resources to Florida in recent elections and I think they will reallocate most of that money elsewhere - the Florida ship has sailed.

I wish Jason, OPK and our other friends in GA good luck with the ad blitzes they are going to see. I think I am going to spend the holiday weekend seeing who owns the major media outlets in the battleground states and buy their stocks - I would think the campaigns are already booking air time.

On an unrelated note, Trump has a certain percentage of the vote even if he shoots someone on 5th Ave (I have seen various estimates and don't want to guess but probably at least 25-30% of Republicans). So the more other candidates who enter and take 5% here, 6%, here, the better Trump's chances of winning primaries in states that have winner-take-all primaries.

[Bostondevil]

https://split-ticket.org/2023/05/08/a-generational-cliff/

Article looking at voter registration and party affiliation among the yutes (the whaaaaaaaat?!?!). If Democrats can roll out the youth vote (and interestingly they did in 2020, but didn't as much in 2022 midterms) then NC becomes very much in play. Honestly I am much more skeptical of youth turnout than you generally are. In NC specifically, the new head of the Democratic party is a 25 year old female from Person County who vows to target rural areas of the state. NC has the 2nd largest rural population in the US behind Texas and the Democratic party has largely left those areas in the last 2 decades. The margins are really low here and if she can somehow mobilize the youth vote and claw back some of the Republican vote counts in rural counties, then she is making a template that Democrats can and should use nationally. Especially given their huge advantage in youth party affiliation.

Very interesting article - thanks for posting.

This quote from the article "Contrary to the “young people will become more conservative” notion that dominates modern thinking, research suggests that ideology actually remains largely stable over the long term." aligns with something I have been saying for awhile - if Republicans don't pay attention to Gen Z's top concerns now, they will lose them forever. Gen Zers are picking their (most likely) lifelong brands right now and Republicans are losing in that particular battle. Sure, there are some Gen Zers who are picking red, but the majority are picking blue. Trump is never going to make any of them change their minds. I'm not sure any of the current crop will either. Ron DeSantis certainly won't.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Trump might get more than 50% of his party to vote for him in the primaries. (And of course he doesn't even need that much in a crowded field.)

He won't get more than 50% of the country to vote for him in the general. Trump is Biden's ticket to re-election.

[Matches]

One question I have is: What are the odds that both of the front runners will still be hale and hearty a year from now? Spring chickens they aren't.

Yup. ***** will be the same age in 2024 that Biden was in 2020, and he doesn’t exactly seem to treat his body as a temple. And Biden will be 82 - he seems relatively healthy despite the attempts to portray him as a vegetable - but 82 is old. That could change in a literal heartbeat.

Neither of these dudes are in mint condition. There’s always variance between how things look a year out versus how they end up, as George HW Bush could have attested - but this race has more variance than ever. So many moving pieces.

[Kdogg]

Interesting that we only have 2 people in the race who are currently in office. Also interesting that despite the saying, "every Senator wakes up in the morning and sees a President staring back in the mirror," we only have 1 GOP senator running thus far. I saw an excellent article in Politico about how the anti-Trump forces seem really divided between Tim Scott and Ron Desantis and how that might be a real boost for Trump.

That phrase must have been coined in South Carolina. In over half a century, we've had five US Senators (Thurmond, Hollings, Graham, DeMint & Scott). Four of them have now run for President and the fifth left the Senate midterm. Scott's going to be a prime VP candidate. He checks may of the boxes that Pence did plus has a working relationship with Trump.

Any chance that anyone challenges Biden in a primary?

They have Senator Robert Kennedy Jr. (husband of Cheryl Hines) and Marianne Williamson (author). I'm not sure either makes the ballot.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Very interesting article - thanks for posting.

This quote from the article "Contrary to the “young people will become more conservative” notion that dominates modern thinking, research suggests that ideology actually remains largely stable over the long term." aligns with something I have been saying for awhile - if Republicans don't pay attention to Gen Z's top concerns now, they will lose them forever. Gen Zers are picking their (most likely) lifelong brands right now and Republicans are losing in that particular battle. Sure, there are some Gen Zers who are picking red, but the majority are picking blue. Trump is never going to make any of them change their minds. I'm not sure any of the current crop will either. Ron DeSantis certainly won't.

I 100% agree with this. And Republicans knew this in the aftermath of the 2012 election. The 2012 post-mortem suggested they needed to moderate. And this article suggests that is still true. But not immediately. The EC advantage they have has meant that they can avoid changing to be more broadly appealing in the near term. Also they have leaned more into making it harder to vote for minorities and college age kids. These restrictions further delay any need to moderate.

[dudog84]

This is the role Liz Cheney wanted to play, but I think she realizes that her spot on the Jan 6th committee made GOP voters so angry that she has no voice in the party any more. Christie is a better proxy.

I think someone is going to try to play this role of Trump attacker without having a real shot at winning. But the tightrope act is a delicate one for the GOP. Getting rid of Trump while keeping his base engaged is a super difficult task. Our partisan divide is so close, if even 5% of Trump voters say they cannot support a non-Trump nominee, that probably spells doom for the GOP candidate.

Yep. The old saying "Can't live with him, can't live without him".

Any chance that anyone challenges Biden in a primary?

I think the Ds learned their lesson in 1980 (Ted challenges Jimmy). However, I never underestimate the hubris and stupidity of the political class, on either side.

Very interesting article - thanks for posting.

This quote from the article "Contrary to the “young people will become more conservative” notion that dominates modern thinking, research suggests that ideology actually remains largely stable over the long term." aligns with something I have been saying for awhile - if Republicans don't pay attention to Gen Z's top concerns now, they will lose them forever. Gen Zers are picking their (most likely) lifelong brands right now and Republicans are losing in that particular battle. Sure, there are some Gen Zers who are picking red, but the majority are picking blue. Trump is never going to make any of them change their minds. I'm not sure any of the current crop will either. Ron DeSantis certainly won't.

Yep yep. The youngsters are much more liberal than they were a generation ago, let alone 2 or 3 generations. But they've never ever been motivated. Between abortion, climate change, and LGBTQ issues, they are suddenly motivated not just for themselves but to motivate their friends into voting. I think it's a good thing and overdue, it's their future after all. But of the 3 issues I mentioned, abortion is the big one. It's hard to ignore the bans (at various levels), and if DeSantis makes it to the general his 6-week ban will be his albatross.

Speaking of DeSantis, he said yesterday that "On day one" he will look at pardoning January 6 rioters. Expect a lot of D ads with riot footage and pardon quotes.

It's early, but I see no way that the R nominee is not Trump or DeSantis. There's a lot of time left, but without the Electoral College this contest would already be over. The Rs seem to be on the wrong side of issues in all the polling that I see. Is it too early to talk about polling?

Oh, and don't forget guns. You may be seeing my name in the headlines. My next-door neighbor has set up a shooting range in his backyard (we're on 80-foot lots, do the math). If he doesn't stop, I'm going to sue him, the City, and the State. I'm for the 2nd Amendment, but this is ridiculous and if I'm gonna be miserable, everybody is gonna be miserable.

So many moving pieces.

And a shout-out to The Dude in our midst.

[budwom]

We’ve seen this movie before on the Republican side but now with DeSantis taking the Ted Cruz role while Tim Scott and Nicky Haley fighting for the sacrificial Jeb Bush role. How do you beat Trump without offending his base with him lobbing grenades every time you get within range? We know, from experience, that you can’t. Seems to me that Jack Smith is the only hope for any of them.

that's the way I see it. Without Jack Smith he picks them off one by one.

[dudog84]

that's the way I see it. Without Jack Smith he picks them off one by one.

I don't see how Jack Smith makes a difference in the primary. It might cost him some support, but just as likely gains him some, and with his current lead it will not be enough to make a difference. We will not have a trial and conviction in the next 18 months, an indictment (if there is one) won't matter.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Yep yep. The youngsters are much more liberal than they were a generation ago, let alone 2 or 3 generations. But they've never ever been motivated. Between abortion, climate change, and LGBTQ issues, they are suddenly motivated not just for themselves but to motivate their friends into voting. I think it's a good thing and overdue, it's their future after all. But of the 3 issues I mentioned, abortion is the big one. It's hard to ignore the bans (at various levels), and if DeSantis makes it to the general his 6-week ban will be his albatross.

Though I tend to agree with this, I would like to note that many of us tend to live in a bubble of younger people who are highly educated and thus tend to skew blue. Our perspective is based on what we hear from our kids who go to Duke or wherever else. The educational divide is really critical and there are a lot of college-aged young adults who do not go to college. And there are still plenty of people that age who go to college and are very Republican. I live in an area that skews very heavily in one direction and socialize many with people of this leaning, but try very hard to occasionally step back and see what is going on in the rest of the country, rather than primarily gaining my perspective on the view of college-aged kids I interact with. The vote of the 21 year old working at the grocery store 30 miles outside Pittsburgh or Atlanta actually counts a lot more than the vote of the kid from suburban NY, Boston or SF.

I do agree that motivation among those who care about the issues dudog mentioned (which are very important to many young adults) has grown. In 2016 a meaningful portion of them chose to drop out of politics when Hillary got the nomination over Bernie, and by not voting, they effectively voted for Trump. After experiencing four years of Trump, many of them got more engaged and, from their perspective, held their noses and voted for Biden. The abortion ruling and follow-ups such as DeSantis' six-week rule has further energized many of them so they are less likely to sit this one out, even if they don't really like Biden.

[budwom]

I agree with Crazy, I think the view of youths from vast parts of the country is decidedly more conservative than many of us would like to think.

[dudog84]

I get what you guys are saying, especially about climate change (I want my big truck, and if you don't live on the coast who cares about sea level rise), LGBTQ issues, and guns/Jan 6. But that's why I say abortion is the biggie. Certainly the vast, vast majority of young girls don't want to be forced to give birth, and only a slightly smaller majority of boys don't want to be saddled with the consequences of their actions (it takes 2 after all).

Trump lost in 2020, and while the margins in certain states were close it was a shock that he lost Georgia, and to a lesser extent Arizona. Since that election we have had January 6, the Dobbs decision (directly attributable to his Supreme Court picks), and the abortion restrictions put into place by numerous states. Where has he picked up support that he didn't already have? It's not the economy, I firmly believe it's abortion, stupid. If Dobbs had happened and the states hadn't literally rushed to top each other on restrictions, Dobbs may not have mattered that much.

Plus as someone noted above, every day in this country thousands of old people (who skew conservative) die. At the same time, every day thousands of young people (who skew liberal, though admittedly maybe not as much as most think) turn 18. It used to be balanced by the quantity of actual voters, but now that the youngsters are voting it is going to make a difference. Heck, even a lot of older people don't want to see their daughters/granddaughters forced to give birth.

I don't think that's a partisan statement, the polling supports it overwhelmingly.

[Matches]

I get what you guys are saying, especially about climate change (I want my big truck, and if you don't live on the coast who cares about sea level rise), LGBTQ issues, and guns/Jan 6. But that's why I say abortion is the biggie. Certainly the vast, vast majority of young girls don't want to be forced to give birth, and only a slightly smaller majority of boys don't want to be saddled with the consequences of their actions (it takes 2 after all).

It's not the economy, I firmly believe it's abortion, stupid. If Dobbs had happened and the states hadn't literally rushed to top each other on restrictions, Dobbs may not have mattered that much.

Agreed with this. The GOP messaging on this issue seems almost calculated to alienate young women. Too often the face of these legislative restrictions are old white dudes or rich women holding Bibles. GenZ’ers are *livid* over this issue and they’re only going to get more motivated as more 6-week restrictions and the like get passed.

[Bostondevil]

Though I tend to agree with this, I would like to note that many of us tend to live in a bubble of younger people who are highly educated and thus tend to skew blue. Our perspective is based on what we hear from our kids who go to Duke or wherever else. The educational divide is really critical and there are a lot of college-aged young adults who do not go to college. And there are still plenty of people that age who go to college and are very Republican. I live in an area that skews very heavily in one direction and socialize many with people of this leaning, but try very hard to occasionally step back and see what is going on in the rest of the country, rather than primarily gaining my perspective on the view of college-aged kids I interact with. The vote of the 21 year old working at the grocery store 30 miles outside Pittsburgh or Atlanta actually counts a lot more than the vote of the kid from suburban NY, Boston or SF.

I do agree that motivation among those who care about the issues dudog mentioned (which are very important to many young adults) has grown. In 2016 a meaningful portion of them chose to drop out of politics when Hillary got the nomination over Bernie, and by not voting, they effectively voted for Trump. After experiencing four years of Trump, many of them got more engaged and, from their perspective, held their noses and voted for Biden. The abortion ruling and follow-ups such as DeSantis' six-week rule has further energized many of them so they are less likely to sit this one out, even if they don't really like Biden.

More young people are college educated than previous generations. Percentage wise, it may wind up that twice as many Gen Zers will be college educated compared to Baby Boomers. Looking at percent of college aged kids in college right not, it's at 57% compared to 52% for Millennials and 42% for Gen X at the same age. That's not degrees though, we don't yet know how many Gen Zers will have college degrees, but 57% are at least attending some college. I didn't find numbers for Baby Boomers in college when they were college aged, but 28% of Baby Boomers have college degrees.

Yes, I listen to my kids, but one of the things they tell me is what their non college educated friends are saying. Only my theory here, but in the current landscape of Discord servers, the likelihood that a Gen Zer will have both college educated and non-college educated friends is higher than in previous generations. They talk to each other online. The peer pressure to reject bigotry is huge and this group associates bigotry with Republicans. This crowd still loves their memes. They think of Biden as super old but still meme-worthy. Trump used to be meme-worthy but no longer is. DeSantis never was and never will be. Does this group vote? Not as much as some others, to be sure, but enough of them vote that they could make the difference in AZ/GA/WI. My 2nd son is the most active on Discord servers of the 4. He voted for the first time in 2016. He is among the oldest of the Gen Z voters. He had many online friends who thought the idea of a Trump presidency was cool in 2016. He had no online friends who wanted a second term for Trump. Not all voted for Biden, but the ones who didn't vote for Biden either didn't vote or went third party/write-in. Trump will never get those voters back and they aren't switching to DeSantis. That said, the right kind of Republican, one that could capture the imagination of the memers, could get their votes. It's unclear if any are capable of that right now, but one could emerge. It won't be Trump or DeSantis. If one does capture them though and does not get the Republican nomination, they won't show up to vote for whoever does. Note: I am talking about the memer crowd - not the 4chan b channel types, or, heaven forbid, the 8chan folks (wherever they are now). But the 4chan/8chan types are more Millennials, not Gen Zers. Or, in the language of the Gen Zers, Boomers. I say Baby Boomer to denote the generation, being a Boomer is an attitude, not an age, and posting on 4chan makes you a Boomer. Sadly, so does posting on the DBR. We are all Boomers here.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Trump lost in 2020

He also lost in 2022.

[Matches]

We are all Boomers here.

Rude. 🤣

Not wrong. But rude. {Yells at cloud}

[Bostondevil]

Rude. 🤣

Not wrong. But rude. {Yells at cloud}

Talk to my son, not me.