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  1. #15761
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    How in the world are the Dems messing this up?
    Years and years of practice.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  2. #15762
    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    How in the world are the Dems messing this up? We have 3 years of data that shows Trump was a mediocre President, followed by a year in which both MAGA and Dems were displeased with how Covid was handled. Then, Trump LOST THE ELECTION. We had election denial, riot or insurrection in DC, “Find me 12,000 votes”, impeachments, indictments, lost court cases, sexual assault, slander, hiding classified docs after being asked to return them, praise of Putin and other dictators, “I will only be a dictator for one day”, Dobbs, charging Saudi backed golf league for use of his courses, multiple Generals saying he’s unfit for office, multiple former appointees saying he’s unfit for office, “bloodbath”, lies such as “we won Wisconsin and it’s been proven”, immunity, proposed leaving NATO and the list goes on and on. Still Trump leads in several polls. How? Are the Dems so incompetent that they might lose this election?
    It's not about Trump, it's about Biden.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/

  3. #15763
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    It's not about Trump, it's about Biden.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/
    Sort of. Trump has almost completely taken over the Republican party. That's astounding, and not about Biden.

  4. #15764
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    How in the world are the Dems messing this up? We have 3 years of data that shows Trump was a mediocre President, followed by a year in which both MAGA and Dems were displeased with how Covid was handled. Then, Trump LOST THE ELECTION. We had election denial, riot or insurrection in DC, “Find me 12,000 votes”, impeachments, indictments, lost court cases, sexual assault, slander, hiding classified docs after being asked to return them, praise of Putin and other dictators, “I will only be a dictator for one day”, Dobbs, charging Saudi backed golf league for use of his courses, multiple Generals saying he’s unfit for office, multiple former appointees saying he’s unfit for office, “bloodbath”, lies such as “we won Wisconsin and it’s been proven”, immunity, proposed leaving NATO and the list goes on and on. Still Trump leads in several polls. How? Are the Dems so incompetent that they might lose this election?
    Because Biden is old and uninspiring and everything costs more now than it did 3 years ago

  5. #15765
    Quote Originally Posted by mkirsh View Post
    Because Biden is old and uninspiring and everything costs more now than it did 3 years ago
    Trump is old too and it could be argued that everything costs more because of all the Covid era stimulus caused major inflation. However, Trump did say this week that if elected, "we will no longer have inflation". So that's reassuring.

  6. #15766
    Quote Originally Posted by Nepos View Post
    Sort of. Trump has almost completely taken over the Republican party. That's astounding, and not about Biden.
    This is akin to State fans always screaming, "THE REFS!" every time we lose a game. You have to have some introspection and see what it is you can do better before you get back to winning. If you always expect someone to suck more than you do as a strategy...well, I got no idea how you fix that.

  7. #15767
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    Trump is old too and it could be argued that everything costs more because of all the Covid era stimulus caused major inflation. However, Trump did say this week that if elected, "we will no longer have inflation". So that's reassuring.
    You could also argue that inflation is partially due to Trump's protectionist trade policies/tariffs, limitations on immigration/low cost labor, tax cuts to juice the economy, etc, but my point was that quick reactions and not deep rational thought seems to be what is driving the day.

  8. #15768
    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    Trump is old too and it could be argued that everything costs more because of all the Covid era stimulus caused major inflation. However, Trump did say this week that if elected, "we will no longer have inflation". So that's reassuring.
    Wasn't it recently shown that the covid stimulus was responsible for about 20% of the current inflation and the rest was businesses jacking up costs simply because they could and who was going to stop them?

    2016, 2020 and 2022 have shown polls to be particularly unreliable in today's political climate, so I don't place a lot of value in them. I'm sure the race is close and both Biden and Trump may seem undesirable to large swathes of the voting public. I do think there is something of a Trump fatigue as he is either embroiled in some legal battle, or he's saying some very questionable borderline criminal things. He just doesn't come across as some anti-establishment "drain the swamp" crusader that he was viewed as in 2016 vs Hillary Clinton. He doesn't have an age advantage over Biden. I think theres a large amount of people that just want him to go away. I'm not talking about "never Trumpers" or those liberally inclined, I just think the average undecided voter that probably doesn't relish 4 years of Biden, but really doesn't want to go backwards with 4 more years of Trump. He doesn't really have any positive images or events associated with him that the average person would point to and say "man, I wish that would come back". Unless the economy and job market craters, or Biden dies/has a stroke, I don't think Trump is going to win.

  9. #15769
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    However, Trump did say this week that if elected, "we will no longer have inflation". So that's reassuring.
    Now I know who is running mate is going to be.

    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  10. #15770
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Re: the WSJ poll

    Their self-described methodology says that they polled with phone calls and texts. They do not mention any kind of non-response bias or any attempts to correct for non-response bias.

    I then looked at the published percentages. Using the actual voting demographics from the 2020 election, white voters were slightly over-represented in the WSJ sample. Older voters, both 50+ and 65+ were over-represented by more than a slight amount. The last thing I looked at was religion. Evangelicals are way over-represented in this sample.

    I then looked at the WSJ poll rating on 538. It doesn't have one. So, I looked at the published poll results and calculated a transparency score based on 538's published methodology. WSJ scored a 2 out of 10.

    Yeah, I have time on my hands right now. That doesn't let the rest of you off the hook for buying polling news whole cloth. The very least the rest of you can do is check the poll's rating on 538 before you believe the results.

    Given that the people who participated in this poll are slightly whiter, older, and a lot more evangelical compared to the voters in the 2020 election, I would be surprised if Trump wasn't in the lead. I do not have enough time to do individual state comparisons - I will leave that to the rest of you.

    For the record - I don't think polling methods have caught up with the 21st century so I don't trust most polls. I'm sure they are all missing some group or other. I have found - and no, I have not collected data so it might just be confirmation bias on my part - but it is my belief that most links to polls posted here reflect the preferred outcome of the poster.

  11. #15771
    Quote Originally Posted by Bostondevil View Post
    Re: the WSJ poll

    Their self-described methodology says that they polled with phone calls and texts. They do not mention any kind of non-response bias or any attempts to correct for non-response bias.

    I then looked at the published percentages. Using the actual voting demographics from the 2020 election, white voters were slightly over-represented in the WSJ sample. Older voters, both 50+ and 65+ were over-represented by more than a slight amount. The last thing I looked at was religion. Evangelicals are way over-represented in this sample.

    I then looked at the WSJ poll rating on 538. It doesn't have one. So, I looked at the published poll results and calculated a transparency score based on 538's published methodology. WSJ scored a 2 out of 10.

    Yeah, I have time on my hands right now. That doesn't let the rest of you off the hook for buying polling news whole cloth. The very least the rest of you can do is check the poll's rating on 538 before you believe the results.

    Given that the people who participated in this poll are slightly whiter, older, and a lot more evangelical compared to the voters in the 2020 election, I would be surprised if Trump wasn't in the lead. I do not have enough time to do individual state comparisons - I will leave that to the rest of you.

    For the record - I don't think polling methods have caught up with the 21st century so I don't trust most polls. I'm sure they are all missing some group or other. I have found - and no, I have not collected data so it might just be confirmation bias on my part - but it is my belief that most links to polls posted here reflect the preferred outcome of the poster.
    IIRC, in 2016 you had the "secret Trump voter" where several polls didn't take into account for the person that wasn't going to reply, or they weren't going to admit their actual choice. 538's 2016 pollings were notoriously off due to this. A lot of the polls also predicted the "Red Wave" of 2022, and it didn't happen as they predicted, with republicans picking up incredibly modest gains in the house and no gains in the senate. It could be that politics are so toxic and unappealing now that some people do not want to engage with it unless absolutely required. EDIT: It should be noted that polls did not take into account how threatening reproductive rights really backfired on republicans, hence, no red wave.

    To me the most fascinating thing about this election is if Trump loses, what becomes of the Republican party? They aren't going to trot him out again to lose a 3rd time and he'll be older than Biden is now. But they've tied themselves so tightly to his identity that they won't be able to break away without tearing the party asunder. It would be great if I wasn't directly affected by its outcome.

  12. #15772
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Bostondevil View Post
    Re: the WSJ poll
    Must spread time on your hands sporks. Nice digging.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  13. #15773
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    This is akin to State fans always screaming, "THE REFS!" every time we lose a game. You have to have some introspection and see what it is you can do better before you get back to winning. If you always expect someone to suck more than you do as a strategy...well, I got no idea how you fix that.
    Agreed. At some point Republicans are going to have to come up some actual strategy.

  14. #15774
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by HoKogan View Post
    To me the most fascinating thing about this election is if Trump loses, what becomes of the Republican party? They aren't going to trot him out again to lose a 3rd time and he'll be older than Biden is now.
    I think they would do exactly that. The Republican party is like a neutron star: Trump has blown it up so that most of what is left are his hard core supporters. He'll spend the next 4 years talking about how the 2024 election was rigged and I suspect that, assuming he can stand upright, he will be the 2028 Republican nominee.

  15. #15775
    Quote Originally Posted by HoKogan View Post
    IIRC, in 2016 you had the "secret Trump voter" where several polls didn't take into account for the person that wasn't going to reply, or they weren't going to admit their actual choice. 538's 2016 pollings were notoriously off due to this. A lot of the polls also predicted the "Red Wave" of 2022, and it didn't happen as they predicted, with republicans picking up incredibly modest gains in the house and no gains in the senate. It could be that politics are so toxic and unappealing now that some people do not want to engage with it unless absolutely required. EDIT: It should be noted that polls did not take into account how threatening reproductive rights really backfired on republicans, hence, no red wave.

    To me the most fascinating thing about this election is if Trump loses, what becomes of the Republican party? They aren't going to trot him out again to lose a 3rd time and he'll be older than Biden is now. But they've tied themselves so tightly to his identity that they won't be able to break away without tearing the party asunder. It would be great if I wasn't directly affected by its outcome.
    I thought a lot of the 2022 polling was very accurate. I think 538 predicted there would not be a big “Red Wave.” Am I misremembering?

  16. #15776
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Summerville ,S.C.
    Quote Originally Posted by howardlander View Post
    I think they would do exactly that. The Republican party is like a neutron star: Trump has blown it up so that most of what is left are his hard core supporters. He'll spend the next 4 years talking about how the 2024 election was rigged and I suspect that, assuming he can stand upright, he will be the 2028 Republican nominee.
    I thought or think he'd be incarcerated by then. Then again I thought he'd be incarcerated by now.at the least ineligible due to convictions .
    Getting his day in court seems to be a daunting task at this point.
    For that matter I thought we'd have two different candidates.maybe that is or was hope clouding my judgment.

    Potus isn't as concerning as congress .

    I also believe it's now or never for DJT.

  17. #15777
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Huntington Beach, CA
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Now I know who is running mate is going to be.

    All you have to do is stop measuring for it. It’s the same as discouraging COVID testing. No measurement = No inflation

  18. #15778
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Hillary tells voters to "Get over yourself". Why doesn't she just go away? Biden needs to tell her to ST*U.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/hillary-c...135623429.html

    Seriously, I'm wondering if this will be her last public appearance until after the election.
    Bad officials are elected by good citizens who do not vote. - George Jean Nathan

  19. #15779
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Judge Merchan tells Trump "Seeya soon".

    A judge on Wednesday rejected Donald Trump's bid to delay his April 15 hush money criminal trial until the Supreme Court rules on presidential immunity claims he raised in another of his criminal cases — spurning another of the former president's ploys to put off the historic trial. Several more are pending.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/judge-rej...204453149.html
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  20. #15780
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Hillary tells voters to "Get over yourself". Why doesn't she just go away? Biden needs to tell her to ST*U.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/hillary-c...135623429.html

    Seriously, I'm wondering if this will be her last public appearance until after the election.
    Yes, Hillary, make this election about you...the only person Trump can beat.

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