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  1. #15741
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Trillions? Interesting.
    To be fair, he inflate everything. Even the size of his condo in Trump Tower apparently.

  2. #15742
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by burnspbesq View Post
    As people start onboarding Kennedy’s message, his popularity will drop faster than DJT’s market cap.
    My Twitter feed is filled with his ads arguing that neither major candidate is addressing the debt. It may be a move from Ross Perot’s playbook, but it could gain traction. The debt ain’t gotten better since then, and neither major party can really (IMO) claim to be reducing the debt or even seriously addressing it.

  3. #15743

    Wisconsin

    RFK and others could have impact in Wisconsin in 2024. In 2020, Biden won the state by fewer than 21,000 votes, with no Green Party candidates on the ballot. In 2016, Trump carried Wisconsin by nearly 23,000 votes, with the Green Party’s Jill Stein earning more than 30,000 voters.

    For the 2024 election, Stein, along with Kennedy and left-wing scholar Cornel West, are offering themselves up this year as alternatives to unimpressed voters. Interesting stats for sure, Wisconsin will be a key state.

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/02/polit...-jr/index.html

  4. #15744
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    My Twitter feed is filled with his ads arguing that neither major candidate is addressing the debt. It may be a move from Ross Perot’s playbook, but it could gain traction. The debt ain’t gotten better since then, and neither major party can really (IMO) claim to be reducing the debt or even seriously addressing it.
    With props to Bubba and a few members of congress, it did for a few years. Alas, didn't last.
    Bad officials are elected by good citizens who do not vote. - George Jean Nathan

  5. #15745
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    More false equivalency. Please provide examples, even 1, of Biden acting like a stooge.
    That gets to close to policy for my comfort. Go ask any of your conservative friends. They will have a long list for you.

    You won't agree, but for conservatives, there are plenty of examples.

    It is not a false equivalency to believe Biden and Trump can both be unfit for office even if one is moreso than the other. It's a bit like saying it's more acceptable to be a fan of UNCs women soccer team than their men's basketball team. I guess that's a valid perspective, but I don't accept that I must cheer for either team.

  6. #15746
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by acdevil View Post
    There’s been so little GOTV that I didn’t even know it was primary day until I read this post.
    Hope you were able to vote. I went to my early voting location only to find out I was supposed to go to my regular location (a few blocks away in the rain). I filled in one tiny circle and that was it. Kind of pointless but it is important to do.

  7. #15747
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    My Twitter feed is filled with his ads arguing that neither major candidate is addressing the debt. It may be a move from Ross Perot’s playbook, but it could gain traction. The debt ain’t gotten better since then, and neither major party can really (IMO) claim to be reducing the debt or even seriously addressing it.
    Politicians have been Chicken Little-ing about debt and deficits for as long as anyone can remember. Has it gotten anyone any significant amount of traction in any election? Not that I’ve noticed.

    As Dr. Krugman so colorfully put it a few years ago, the Invisible Bond Vigilantes have never ridden over the hill. And as long as the United States is the issuer of the world’s reserve currency, they never will.
    Last edited by burnspbesq; 04-03-2024 at 08:31 AM.

  8. #15748
    Quote Originally Posted by burnspbesq View Post
    Politicians have been Chicken Little-ing about debt and deficits for as long as anyone can remember. Has it gotten anyone any significant amount of traction in any election? Not that I’ve noticed.
    Agreed. Would be interesting to hear what RFK’s plans would be to actually do anything about the debt. I suspect specifics would evaporate any goodwill he might receive for pointing out the problem.

  9. #15749
    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    Agreed. Would be interesting to hear what RFK’s plans would be to actually do anything about the debt. I suspect specifics would evaporate any goodwill he might receive for pointing out the problem.
    “Objection! Assumes facts not in evidence.”

  10. #15750

    Swing States: Trump Leads in Many Key States

    According to a Wall Street Journal Poll:

    Trump holds a two-point lead in Michigan and three-point lead in Pennsylvania. Biden also carried Georgia, Nevada and Arizona in the last election, all of which have stronger Trump support, according to the poll. Trump leads in Georgia by 3 points, in Nevada by 4 points and he holds a significant 5-point lead in Arizona.

    RFK is going to be a wild card, as a lifelong Democrat, who's always been supported by democrats, and who's California silicon valley elite VP pick who has given lots of money to democrats and was a major donor for George Gascon, just to name one controversial person. It will be intriguing to see how he can sway independents and how many republicans he can sway. If he takes up to 15% as projected in the Hill article, Biden and Trump should be worried.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...states-survey/

  11. #15751
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by burnspbesq View Post
    Politicians have been Chicken Little-ing about debt and deficits for as long as anyone can remember. Has it gotten anyone any significant amount of traction in any election? Not that I’ve noticed.
    Enough to win? No.

    Enough for a third party candidate to swing the election? Ross Perot arguably won the White House for Clinton twice, and he was basically a one-trick pony on the debt. It is a proven vote-getter, and this race may well be determined in the margins.

  12. #15752
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    In perhaps prosecutors’ strongest rebuke yet to how Judge Aileen Cannon has handled the classified documents case against former President Donald Trump, special counsel Jack Smith said in court filings late Tuesday evening that the judge had ordered briefings based on a “fundamentally flawed” understanding of the case that has “no basis in law or fact.
    That sounds like lawyerese for "You don't know what the hell you are doing". Is he setting up for a higher review of her status on the case?

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/02/polit...ons/index.html
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  13. #15753
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    That sounds like lawyerese for "You don't know what the hell you are doing". Is he setting up for a higher review of her status on the case?

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/02/polit...ons/index.html
    I read this as pretty standard frankly when you think a judge is making a mistake. I did not read this as terribly inflammatory but I have not read the whole brief.

  14. #15754
    Quote Originally Posted by burnspbesq View Post
    Politicians have been Chicken Little-ing about debt and deficits for as long as anyone can remember. Has it gotten anyone any significant amount of traction in any election? Not that I’ve noticed.
    How does a nation go bankrupt? Slowly and then all at once.

    I would say that the 1992,94 and 96 elections were very focused on the debt and deficit thanks to Ross Perot and the result was policies that by the end of Clinton's second term saw a balanced budget and a few months were we actually paid off some debt. Since then, both parties seem to be following VP Cheney's mantra of "deficits don't matter" (with convenient flip flops if they are out of power, then they do matter but only long enough to get power again).

    The challenge posed to deficit hawks is that you can't prove that government overspending is crowding out private investments. You can't prove that growth would be hire without the misallocation of capital that results from government spending. Nothing that would win the argument about deficits can really be proven, especially at a personal level that politics resonate. A deficit hawk can't say to Joe Bob and tell him he would have a great job if only the country wasn't $35 trillion in debt, but spend-a-holics can say to Jim Bob aren't you fortunate that the government subsidizes your health insurance, gives you food stamps, housing subsidies and all the rest of the anti-poverty programs that his family benefits from? Deficit hawks have a losing argument and that's why they come across as "chicken little-ing".

    One day they'll be right, when is that day? Tomorrow? Two years? Two decades? Who knows. It will happen. This level of overspending has really only happened since Reagan took office. Prior to that there was always some restraint. The last time debt was this high the US government slashed spending so hard (cut ~70% IIRC) it took 16 years for spending to reach the same heights again (the US was winding down from WWII so a lot of it was just cutting the size of the military and military spending). So we are really in uncharted territory. The US has never budgeted like this before over an extended period of time with plans to continue the spending into perpetuity.

  15. #15755

    Wisonsin Dem Primary

    47,847, or 8.4% or Wisconsin voters were "Uninstructed"... This more than doubled the 20,682 votes President Joe Biden won the state by in 2020, sending a warning sign for his reelection chances in the battleground state.

    Michigan and Minnesota, where a similar "uncommitted" option took about 13% and 19% of the vote in the Democratic primary, respectively.

    Wisconsin is the only Battleground state that Biden is winning in according to a Wall Street Journal Poll. NC, AZ, GA, PA and Michigan all have Trump ahead.

  16. #15756
    Quote Originally Posted by sciencegeek View Post
    47,847, or 8.4% or Wisconsin voters were "Uninstructed"... This more than doubled the 20,682 votes President Joe Biden won the state by in 2020, sending a warning sign for his reelection chances in the battleground state.

    Michigan and Minnesota, where a similar "uncommitted" option took about 13% and 19% of the vote in the Democratic primary, respectively.

    Wisconsin is the only Battleground state that Biden is winning in according to a Wall Street Journal Poll. NC, AZ, GA, PA and Michigan all have Trump ahead.
    That's looks fairly similar to the numbers that Haley, DeSantis and others are pulling in the Republican primaries although I'd give the edge to Biden on disaffected voters.

    Yesterday:

    NY - Biden 91.5% vs Trump 82.1%
    CT - Biden 84.8% vs Trump 77.9%
    RI - Biden 82.6% vs Trump 84.4%
    WI - Biden 88.6% vs Trump - 79.2%

    Since you mentioned them...though I guess technically MI and MN were still contested, we all knew Trump had won
    MI - Biden 81.2% vs Trump 68.1%
    MN - Biden 70.7% vs Trump 69.1%

    The big question is "what do these voters do in the general?". They are clearly committed to voting. They showed up for a primary that doesn't matter in the least.

    I would argue that these "no-Biden" Democrats are more likely to either vote Biden, third party, or sit it out. I think most of the dissatifiscation is coming from middle east policies. I doubt they cross over and vote Trump because there is not an improvement on that issue. The "no-Trump" are the ones that could make a difference. I don't see them voting for Trump. The question is do they vote Biden, third party or sit it out. Biden isn't really trying at all to win anti-Trumpers. His sole sales pitch to them is that Trump is a threat to Democracy. Maybe that will be enough, maybe not.

  17. #15757
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I read this as pretty standard frankly when you think a judge is making a mistake. I did not read this as terribly inflammatory but I have not read the whole brief.
    I do think it is interesting that the government cites the search warrant proceeding for this very case, in which the Eleventh Circuit made the exact distinction the government is making here. Technically, of course, that's a different case, but it's pretty hard to argue that it is irrelevant. The government is also very clear that they are aware of when jeopardy attaches and are going to be very insistent on getting the relevant legal questions resolved prior to that point. I wouldn't call it inflammatory, exactly, but it's not subtle. It seems pretty clear on reading the stuff in this case that the government prosecutors are simply better lawyers than this judge.
    Last edited by Phredd3; 04-03-2024 at 11:31 AM.

  18. #15758
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Chapel Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    I do think it is interesting that the government cites the search warrant proceeding for this very case, in which the Eleventh Circuit made the exact distinction the government is making here. Technically, of course, that's a different case in a different circuit, but it's pretty hard to argue that it is irrelevant. The government is also very clear that they are aware of when jeopardy attaches and are going to be very insistent on getting the relevant legal questions resolved prior to that point. I wouldn't call it inflammatory, exactly, but it's not subtle. It seems pretty clear on reading the stuff in this case that the government prosecutors are simply better lawyers than this judge.
    That is putting it in the kindest of words. I recall reading her ruling in the search warrant proceeding and I simply could not understand what she was writing. She gets confused pretty easily about legal issues that are not that complicated.

  19. #15759
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    That's looks fairly similar to the numbers that Haley, DeSantis and others are pulling in the Republican primaries although I'd give the edge to Biden on disaffected voters.

    Yesterday:

    NY - Biden 91.5% vs Trump 82.1%
    CT - Biden 84.8% vs Trump 77.9%
    RI - Biden 82.6% vs Trump 84.4%
    WI - Biden 88.6% vs Trump - 79.2%

    Since you mentioned them...though I guess technically MI and MN were still contested, we all knew Trump had won
    MI - Biden 81.2% vs Trump 68.1%
    MN - Biden 70.7% vs Trump 69.1%

    The big question is "what do these voters do in the general?". They are clearly committed to voting. They showed up for a primary that doesn't matter in the least.

    I would argue that these "no-Biden" Democrats are more likely to either vote Biden, third party, or sit it out. I think most of the dissatifiscation is coming from middle east policies. I doubt they cross over and vote Trump because there is not an improvement on that issue. The "no-Trump" are the ones that could make a difference. I don't see them voting for Trump. The question is do they vote Biden, third party or sit it out. Biden isn't really trying at all to win anti-Trumpers. His sole sales pitch to them is that Trump is a threat to Democracy. Maybe that will be enough, maybe not.
    I guess what matters is who wins, head to head to head, in the end. RFK is going to be crucial when it comes down to it.

  20. #15760
    Quote Originally Posted by sciencegeek View Post
    47,847, or 8.4% or Wisconsin voters were "Uninstructed"... This more than doubled the 20,682 votes President Joe Biden won the state by in 2020, sending a warning sign for his reelection chances in the battleground state.

    Michigan and Minnesota, where a similar "uncommitted" option took about 13% and 19% of the vote in the Democratic primary, respectively.

    Wisconsin is the only Battleground state that Biden is winning in according to a Wall Street Journal Poll. NC, AZ, GA, PA and Michigan all have Trump ahead.
    How in the world are the Dems messing this up? We have 3 years of data that shows Trump was a mediocre President, followed by a year in which both MAGA and Dems were displeased with how Covid was handled. Then, Trump LOST THE ELECTION. We had election denial, riot or insurrection in DC, “Find me 12,000 votes”, impeachments, indictments, lost court cases, sexual assault, slander, hiding classified docs after being asked to return them, praise of Putin and other dictators, “I will only be a dictator for one day”, Dobbs, charging Saudi backed golf league for use of his courses, multiple Generals saying he’s unfit for office, multiple former appointees saying he’s unfit for office, “bloodbath”, lies such as “we won Wisconsin and it’s been proven”, immunity, proposed leaving NATO and the list goes on and on. Still Trump leads in several polls. How? Are the Dems so incompetent that they might lose this election?

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