2024 U.S. Presidential election

[budwom]

I tend to agree. Trump is going to have to be forcibly knocked out of the top spot, and this is a path that at least several candidates will pursue. Christie for sure, possibly DeSantis if sufficiently emboldened. Take the fight to Trump and deliver some tough but necessary medicine to GOP voters. He lost the House in 2018, lost the Presidential election in 2020 and lost the Senate in 2020 and the chance to retake it in 2022 simply because his ego prevented him from acknowledging his loss. Which has been confirmed by multiple judges, audits, etc., not to mention virtually everyone in his inner circle at the time - he knows he lost but he can't admit it. And he's been wasting everyone's time since because his ego is more important to him than the country, the party or even the MAGA faithful. And btw, who exactly is going to work in a second Trump Administration?

Will it work? Maybe, maybe not. Probably not with the MAGA faithful. But I do think there are a lot of Republicans looking to move beyond Trump, both voters and current office holders. But they need someone, or some group, with the courage to rip that bandaid, forcefully and relentlessly. And someone to emerge as a credible alternative.

Of course all of this reminds us geezers of the Olde Days when the party elders chose the nominee over martinis and thick steaks, forget about the primary jive. ...McConnell and his cohorts would like that right about now, though he had his chance to dethrone Trump and he passed on it...

[CameronBornAndBred]

I think Trump's answer at a debate would be something like "I don't have to answer that question, and it's a stupid question because I'm winning the nomination and everybody here and everybody in the country knows it. So your question is irrelevant because the situation isn't going to happen. I'm going to be the nominee, not any of the rest of these people."

wkdpp.jpg

(From one of the best POTUS race hosting nights in SNL history)

[ClemmonsDevil]

Of course all of this reminds us geezers of the Olde Days when the party elders chose the nominee over martinis and thick steaks, forget about the primary jive. ...McConnell and his cohorts would like that right about now, though he had his chance to dethrone Trump and he passed on it...

Oh I definitely miss those days right now.

[luvdahops]

Of course all of this reminds us geezers of the Olde Days when the party elders chose the nominee over martinis and thick steaks, forget about the primary jive. ...McConnell and his cohorts would like that right about now, though he had his chance to dethrone Trump and he passed on it...

Yup. It seemed like McConnell was genuinely torn in the immediate aftermath of Jan 6 but of course wound up taking the path of least resistance. Pretty certain he regrets that now.

And many of the big GOP donors would welcome a return to the smoke-filled room days as well. Maybe some on the Dem side, too.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Yup. It seemed like McConnell was genuinely torn in the immediate aftermath of Jan 6 but of course wound up taking the path of least resistance. Pretty certain he regrets that now.

And many of the big GOP donors would welcome a return to the smoke-filled room days as well. Maybe some on the Dem side, too.

I think the smoke-filled rooms on the Dem side are why no one is running against Biden - it has been made very clear to everyone what happens if they try (at least for now).

Jack Dorsey endorsed RFK Jr. So there's that...

[dudog84]

I tend to agree. Trump is going to have to be forcibly knocked out of the top spot, and this is a path that at least several candidates will pursue. Christie for sure, possibly DeSantis if sufficiently emboldened. Take the fight to Trump and deliver some tough but necessary medicine to GOP voters. He lost the House in 2018, lost the Presidential election in 2020 and lost the Senate in 2020 and the chance to retake it in 2022 simply because his ego prevented him from acknowledging his loss. Which has been confirmed by multiple judges, audits, etc., not to mention virtually everyone in his inner circle at the time - he knows he lost but he can't admit it. And he's been wasting everyone's time since because his ego is more important to him than the country, the party or even the MAGA faithful. And btw, who exactly is going to work in a second Trump Administration?

Will it work? Maybe, maybe not. Probably not with the MAGA faithful. But I do think there are a lot of Republicans looking to move beyond Trump, both voters and current office holders. But they need someone, or some group, with the courage to rip that bandaid, forcefully and relentlessly. And someone to emerge as a credible alternative.

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. It has been tried. I'm sure you've heard of The Lincoln Project, who have been very strident. And of course we saw what happened to Liz Cheney. Don't forget she was drummed out by her colleagues a year before she lost her election. If her colleagues had not abandoned her, I'm not sure the Wyoming voters would have. It certainly would have been a closer race.

This is who the Republican Party is. We need to stop pretending it is not.

[ClemmonsDevil]

SCOTUS absolutely painted Republicans into a corner with Dobbs. They had a legitimate chance to take a more moderate stance and allow a change to the age of viability anchor that had traditionally been followed to the 15 week ban that Mississippi was trying to establish. Historically that kind of incrementalism is one of the Hallmarks of the Roberts Court and the path that he tried to chart. But it turns out that confirming justices with an anti-Roe bias that was HEAVILY influenced by the anti-abortion lobby yeilded a maximalist approach. As this article lays out, prior to dobbs, the median voter would have probably accepted at 15 week ban. What SCOTUS's maximalist approach did was make the Democratic position the default position of the majority of the country and it has caused quite the Schism on the right. And the far right of the Republican Party is in no mood to compromise. If you don't toe the line then you will get primaried from the right. This makes it incredibly tricky for Republican Presidential candidates. I don't see a way they can possibly back off of the extreme stances when they get into the general election.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...an-candidates/

[budwom]

Oh I definitely miss those days right now.

I remember wondering in my younger days what the Smoke Filled Room guys were worried about with primaries. What could go wrong? Now I think I'm catching on....

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I remember wondering in my younger days what the Smoke Filled Room guys were worried about with primaries. What could go wrong? Now I think I'm catching on...

The problem with a democracy is it's so difficult to get people to choose the "correct" choice. Sometimes they need a little nudging.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Sometimes they need a little nudging.

And winking.

[luvdahops]

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. It has been tried. I'm sure you've heard of The Lincoln Project, who have been very strident. And of course we saw what happened to Liz Cheney. Don't forget she was drummed out by her colleagues a year before she lost her election. If her colleagues had not abandoned her, I'm not sure the Wyoming voters would have. It certainly would have been a closer race.

This is who the Republican Party is. We need to stop pretending it is not.

The Lincoln Project is somewhat analogous but had some important distinctions:

-Its focus was on preventing Trump from winning the 2020 General Election, not the Republican nomination; the group was only formed in late 2019 and endorsed Biden in April 2020

-They effectively disbanded in early 2021, well before the full collateral damage of Trump’s ego and inability to admit his loss was evident

-Its membership was drawn primarily if not entirely from moderates and Establishment Republicans; it never had credibility or mindshare among true conservatives, whether traditional or MAGA

-They were also a bunch of experienced operatives, rather than candidates or office holders

What I am suggesting is for actual GOP candidates to take the fight to Trump directly and relentlessly, appealing to GOP voters that winning (at all levels) is the most important thing in 2024 and making that the central focus of the nomination process. Rather than fighting for the “soul of the party” as the LP believed it was doing.

Liz Cheney’s fight was also much more about the soul of the party, as well as holding Trump accountable for his behavior and actions post-election from a legal standpoint. Again, not the same thing as him being bad for the party from an electoral standpoint.

[budwom]

add Sununu to the list of people who doesn't want to run but does want to persuade the party to move away from Trump. What's the plan, Chris?

[MartyClark]

And winking.

As the old politician said "Never write, when you can speak. Never speak when you can nod. Never nod when you can wink"

[Kdogg]

The Lincoln Project is somewhat analogous but had some important distinctions:

-Its focus was on preventing Trump from winning the 2020 General Election, not the Republican nomination; the group was only formed in late 2019 and endorsed Biden in April 2020

-They effectively disbanded in early 2021, well before the full collateral damage of Trump’s ego and inability to admit his loss was evident

-Its membership was drawn primarily if not entirely from moderates and Establishment Republicans; it never had credibility or mindshare among true conservatives, whether traditional or MAGA

-They were also a bunch of experienced operatives, rather than candidates or office holders

What I am suggesting is for actual GOP candidates to take the fight to Trump directly and relentlessly, appealing to GOP voters that winning (at all levels) is the most important thing in 2024 and making that the central focus of the nomination process. Rather than fighting for the “soul of the party” as the LP believed it was doing.

Liz Cheney’s fight was also much more about the soul of the party, as well as holding Trump accountable for his behavior and actions post-election from a legal standpoint. Again, not the same thing as him being bad for the party from an electoral standpoint.

But the question is “what is the soul of the party.” These nominees would have to attack the standard bearer of the party and then pickup that same banner. The masses aren’t going to have it. Parties change. It’s a fact of politics. This isn’t the party of Lincoln or Teddy Roosevelt or even Nixon or either Bushes. People think that the GOP of old will eventually remerge but as the days go by I think that’s less likely. At some point the world will have to except that this is what it has become. We can look the the national voice but pay more attention to the local pols. It’s more MAGA than it’s ever been and they slowly, slowly become more and more. A famous governor once said he didn’t leave his party, it left him. The GOP might be at that inflection point for many of the traditionalists.

[dudog84]

The Lincoln Project is somewhat analogous but had some important distinctions:

-Its focus was on preventing Trump from winning the 2020 General Election, not the Republican nomination; the group was only formed in late 2019 and endorsed Biden in April 2020

-They effectively disbanded in early 2021, well before the full collateral damage of Trump’s ego and inability to admit his loss was evident

-Its membership was drawn primarily if not entirely from moderates and Establishment Republicans; it never had credibility or mindshare among true conservatives, whether traditional or MAGA

-They were also a bunch of experienced operatives, rather than candidates or office holders

What I am suggesting is for actual GOP candidates to take the fight to Trump directly and relentlessly, appealing to GOP voters that winning (at all levels) is the most important thing in 2024 and making that the central focus of the nomination process. Rather than fighting for the “soul of the party” as the LP believed it was doing.

Liz Cheney’s fight was also much more about the soul of the party, as well as holding Trump accountable for his behavior and actions post-election from a legal standpoint. Again, not the same thing as him being bad for the party from an electoral standpoint.

Oh, the Lincoln Project is alive and well. Well, don't know about "well". But they are certainly very active:

https://www.youtube.com/results?sear...incoln+project

A lot of contradictions in the 2nd bold.

Yes Liz Cheney put country 1st, but don't kid yourself that she wasn't acutely aware of where this was leading her party electorally. She is very much a politician, she grew up in politics as much as anyone in the country.

But mostly, what Kdogg said.

[ClemmonsDevil]

1. Who?
2. So all the other ad hominem attacks, like ridiculing Republican war hero John McCain were above board, but this was his bridge too far?
3. I don't understand the angle by the NH guy.
4. How in the hell is this news outside of that gulch or notch place that votes first?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...fox-news-host/

[ClemmonsDevil]

Trump evidently expects to face charges related to the classified document case. My prior is this helps in the primary and hurts in the general.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...meet-with-doj/

[budwom]

1. Who?
2. So all the other ad hominem attacks, like ridiculing Republican war hero John McCain were above board, but this was his bridge too far?
3. I don't understand the angle by the NH guy.
4. How in the hell is this news outside of that gulch or notch place that votes first?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...fox-news-host/

I can tell you with fifty plus years of experience that it is a fruitless exercise to try and analyze what New Hamsterites of that political persuasion are thinking. It will damage your cranium. I know people don't believe me, but they are still working through some really crazy political stuff that emanated from the Manchester Union Leader...

[Matches]

Trump evidently expects to face charges related to the classified document case. My prior is this helps in the primary and hurts in the general.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...meet-with-doj/

I realize that every time he’s alleged/ revealed to have done something awful it seems to coalesce support from his base - but I dunno that it helps him this time. Maybe it has no effect which would be a win for him, but we’re likely to get a LOT of details soon, and some of it may be genuinely shocking even to those of us who long ago professed we’d never be surprised by this person’s behavior.

IMO there’s a reason the House GOP is going all-in on the idea that Biden is somehow the head of an international crime syndicate. It’s an attempt to create a both sides narrative, and the whole reason to do that is if you are trying to get ahead of something really bad.

[ClemmonsDevil]

I standby my assertion that it helps him in the primary. I think he has absolutely convinced the vast majority of Republicans that he is being unfairly targeted. I actually think this will confirm their beliefs, regardless of what comes out. I don't think it matters if it turns out he was on the take from foreign countries. I think none of that matters in his Republican party. Because it's his. I think there's this thought process that this is a monetary blip and that eventually the Republican Party of bush and Reagan will come back. I don't think this is accurate. I think this is the party and there is no changing it for the foreseeable future.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/0...tment-00090001