New ACC Revenue Plan

[AGDukesky]

The super conferences were created, in part, to establish 2 divisions for a conference championship game. It seems like expanded playoffs will lesson the prestige of of the conference championship game. It would actually make a lot of sense to use conference championship week for round one of the playoffs. I’m sure there’s money to be made with those games but, if you’re a playoff team, do you really want to play a conference championship going in to the playoffs?

I agree and the combination of expanded playoffs with the unbalanced schedules of 2-division conferences lessens the importance and prestige of being a conference champion.

[AustinDevil]

Saying that Clemson doesn't add anything to the SEC because of South Carolina...I wouldn't be so sure about that. Clemson/Carolina is kinda like Duke/Carolina. We don't like the Gamecocks in the same way Duke fans don't like UNCheat. I'm not anti-South Carolina personally because I didn't group up in SC. When I moved there, I wasn't much of a college football fan so I was perplexed when the second question asked was "Are you Clemson or Carolina?".

I don't have facts/numbers to back up my thoughts but having gone to grad school at Clemson (my daughter just finished her freshman year as a Tiger), I can tell you that Clemson football is ridiculous and I suspect that it brings in a ridiculous amount of money. Now the SEC already has that but adding Clemson will make the rich richer, IMHO.

I was talking with my best friend, a die-hard Clemson football fan (and a solid Duke basketball fan) last week about the revenue sharing. His thoughts were simply that as long as Clemson has to share equally with schools that bring in less money for football the less likely they are to compete with top level football programs (Alabama, Ga, OSU, etc). They don't want to fall behind because right now they in the conversation each year...

There are reasons that the $EC was willing to run roughshod over A&M's feelings to add UT, some of which don't apply to Clemson/USC, such as the sheer number of eyeballs in Texas, but a whole lot of your thinking is valid and I think they will absolutely add Clemson if they can.

[House P]

Do ANY of these schools actually raise the revenue per school needle for the SEC or the Big10? Clemson and UNC are the only ones I think might, and only UNC wouldn't be blocked by an existing conference partner.

According to the numbers on this site, Clemson and FSU are the only ACC schools whose average TV viewership in 2022 was higher than the median viewership in the Big 10 or SEC.

- The average viewership for a regular season game involving a Big 10 team was ~1.6M.
- The average viewership for a regular season game involving an SEC team was ~1.8M.

Here is the average viewership of ACC teams in 2022

Clemson	2.59M
Florida State	2.03M
NC State	881K
North Carolina	849K
Syracuse	841K
Georgia Tech	837K
Pittsburgh	650K
Miami FL	608K
Wake Forest	523K
Louisville	496K
Boston College	322K
Virginia Tech	264K
Virginia	237K
Duke	116K

Of course these numbers are a bit misleading as the viewership for a specific team depends on who the team played. I suspect that Duke's viewership numbers would be a lot higher if they had played Maryland's schedule last year (games vs Ohio St, Michigan, and Penn St).

3.05M people watched the Ohio State-Toledo game last season! That's almost as many viewers as the ACC Championship game between Clemson and UNC.

[luvdahops]

Given (as several of us mention) that we may be nearing peak TV revenue what with cable woes, it could be perilous for the B1G or SEC to assume that new members, no matter how geographically impressive they may be, will result in larger TV payouts per school...but I would imagine the two conferences have presented the networks (privately, of course) with a few what ifs...the UCLA/USC deal obviously passed the test...

I can tell as someone who lives in Chicago and follows the B1G pretty closely, the conference has its hands full right now digesting USC and UCLA, including agreeing on a viable scheduling model and figuring out how to navigate the requirements of that new $7bn media rights contract with Fox, CBS and NBC. Any active talk of further expansion is very much on the backburner. For how long, who knows. But it is clearly not a priority for conference decision makers right now.

[AGDukesky]

According to the numbers on this site, Clemson and FSU are the only ACC schools whose average TV viewership in 2022 was higher than the median viewership in the Big 10 or SEC.

- The average viewership for a regular season game involving a Big 10 team was ~1.6M.
- The average viewership for a regular season game involving an SEC team was ~1.8M.

Here is the average viewership of ACC teams in 2022

Clemson	2.59M
Florida State	2.03M
NC State	881K
North Carolina	849K
Syracuse	841K
Georgia Tech	837K
Pittsburgh	650K
Miami FL	608K
Wake Forest	523K
Louisville	496K
Boston College	322K
Virginia Tech	264K
Virginia	237K
Duke	116K

Of course this is a bit misleading as the viewership for a specific team depends on who the team played. I suspect that Duke's viewership numbers would be higher if they had played Maryland's schedule last year (games vs Ohio St, Michigan, and Penn St).

3.05M people watched the Ohio State-Toledo game last season! That's almost as many viewers as the ACC Championship game between Clemson and UNC.

Great info! It will be interesting to see Duke’s average after this season with games against ND, Clemson and FSU plus coming off a 9-win season. If anything shows how weak the schedule was last year, those viewership numbers do.

[LeadingEdge]

Given (as several of us mention) that we may be nearing peak TV revenue what with cable woes, it could be perilous for the B1G or SEC to assume that new members, no matter how geographically impressive they may be, will result in larger TV payouts per school...but I would imagine the two conferences have presented the networks (privately, of course) with a few what ifs...the UCLA/USC deal obviously passed the test...

It has been reported that the B10 had TV (Fox?) evaluate whether also adding Washington and Oregon would at least maintain the per-school payout. This was done just after adding UCLA and USC. The answer was "no," which squelched adding those two.

Aside from perhaps Clemson, FSU, and ND, I believe there are no schools outside the B10/SEC that would not dilute per-school payout if added to either conference. (Good research above on per-school, average-game viewership.)

As you persuasively argue, why would a conference want to add new markets if doing so reduces per-school payouts?

Eventually, some conference will be the first to move to the next phase: kicking out TV underperformers. It probably will go along the path used by law firms to weed out underproducing partners: first, you demote to partner-in-name-only (salary), then you cut salary, then, if the hint isn't taken, you perhaps fire or find other ways to make life miserable. Law firm mergers are a favorite way to weed out; get the acquiring firm to do your dirty work for you.

Realignment is a big sorting exercise, with the subtraction part on its way. Schools such as yours (Duke) and mine (Virginia) would be better off if we could just get the sorting over in one fell swoop and move on.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It has been reported that the B10 had TV (Fox?) evaluate whether also adding Washington and Oregon would at least maintain the per-school payout. This was done just after adding UCLA and USC. The answer was "no," which squelched adding those two.

Aside from perhaps Clemson, FSU, and ND, I believe there are no schools outside the B10/SEC that would not dilute per-school payout if added to either conference. (Good research above on per-school, average-game viewership.)

As you persuasively argue, why would a conference want to add new markets if doing so reduces per-school payouts?

Eventually, some conference will be the first to move to the next phase: kicking out TV underperformers. It probably will go along the path used by law firms to weed out underproducing partners: first, you demote to partner-in-name-only (salary), then you cut salary, then, if the hint isn't taken, you perhaps fire or find other ways to make life miserable. Law firm mergers are a favorite way to weed out; get the acquiring firm to do your dirty work for you.

Realignment is a big sorting exercise, with the subtraction part on its way. Schools such as yours (Duke) and mine (Virginia) would be better off if we could just get the sorting over in one fell swoop and move on.

Kind of like "it's easier to find a job before you lose your current one?"

[sagegrouse]

According to the numbers on this site, Clemson and FSU are the only ACC schools whose average TV viewership in 2022 was higher than the median viewership in the Big 10 or SEC.

- The average viewership for a regular season game involving a Big 10 team was ~1.6M.
- The average viewership for a regular season game involving an SEC team was.

Re Duke's low rating. I perceive that noon kickoffs and ACCN affected the viewership. I may be delusional, of course.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Re Duke's low rating. I perceive that noon kickoffs and ACCN affected the viewership. I may be delusional, of course.

They didn't help things. But also, at that low viewership, it's hard to argue for better.

[budwom]

It has been reported that the B10 had TV (Fox?) evaluate whether also adding Washington and Oregon would at least maintain the per-school payout. This was done just after adding UCLA and USC. The answer was "no," which squelched adding those two.

Aside from perhaps Clemson, FSU, and ND, I believe there are no schools outside the B10/SEC that would not dilute per-school payout if added to either conference. (Good research above on per-school, average-game viewership.)

As you persuasively argue, why would a conference want to add new markets if doing so reduces per-school payouts?

Eventually, some conference will be the first to move to the next phase: kicking out TV underperformers. It probably will go along the path used by law firms to weed out underproducing partners: first, you demote to partner-in-name-only (salary), then you cut salary, then, if the hint isn't taken, you perhaps fire or find other ways to make life miserable. Law firm mergers are a favorite way to weed out; get the acquiring firm to do your dirty work for you.

Realignment is a big sorting exercise, with the subtraction part on its way. Schools such as yours (Duke) and mine (Virginia) would be better off if we could just get the sorting over in one fell swoop and move on.

I hope they won't do that (kick out underproducers)...there's plenty of money to go around and they're sitting pretty. Plus sometimes the good teams become crappy, and vice versa...

[budwom]

Re Duke's low rating. I perceive that noon kickoffs and ACCN affected the viewership. I may be delusional, of course.

And I think it took a while for non Duke fans to realize hey, these guys play pretty good football and don't totally suck as they used to...(and I certainly agree about the noon starts)...Duke was definitely one of the more entertaining teams to watch in the league last year.

[Avvocato]

In truth, the ACC can resolve these issues if it's better football schools play up to their rep. It's not like the Big 12 has great traditional programs anymore. But they play at high levels. If FSU, Va. Tech and Miami in particular, held up their end of the bargain (and help Clemson), there would be no real issue here. Then when other schools like Duke, UNC, Ga Tech or UVA, for example have great years, even better. The whole league other than Clemson for about 10 years has been very mediocre. Start winning, win out of conference, and win bowl games. All these other revenue sharing models and thinking out of the box will resolve themselves. Easier said than done. But FSU looks to be rebounding. That will help. Clemson finally looks to have a quarterback again. That helps. Miami and Va Tech look lost, but hopefully some other schools can fill the void.

With that said, the ACC looks like the final years of the old Big East, which contorted itself trying to make its basketball and football work. The ACC has a chance where the Big East was doomed by having too many non-football playing schools. The ACC's problem is fixable. Just win baby. But they better do it soon before it's too late, and the clock is ticking.

[LeadingEdge]

I hope they won't do that (kick out underproducers)...there's plenty of money to go around and they're sitting pretty. Plus sometimes the good teams become crappy, and vice versa...

This is about TV value, not about just winning games. To have TV value, do you need to be somewhat of a football blue blood and consistently draw a big viewership year over year over year. No matter how much Northwestern or Wake Forest win, they will never reach that level up TV followership and, thus, value. Every P5 conference could raise is per-school TV value by weeding out some low TV-value schools.

[budwom]

This is about TV value, not about just winning games. To have TV value, do you need to be somewhat of a football blue blood and consistently draw a big viewership year over year over year. No matter how much Northwestern or Wake Forest win, they will never reach that level up TV followership and, thus, value. Every P5 conference could raise is per-school TV value by weeding out some low TV-value schools.

maybe I'm being naive, but I just don't see them doing that. And I would imagine that at least in the B1G's case, there would be a mighty legal battle should they try to do so. No reason to take on that mess with so much money pouring in.

[wilko]

In truth, the ACC can resolve these issues if it's better football schools play up to their rep. It's not like the Big 12 has great traditional programs anymore. But they play at high levels. If FSU, Va. Tech and Miami in particular, held up their end of the bargain (and help Clemson), there would be no real issue here. Then when other schools like Duke, UNC, Ga Tech or UVA, for example have great years, even better. The whole league other than Clemson for about 10 years has been very mediocre. Start winning, win out of conference, and win bowl games. All these other revenue sharing models and thinking out of the box will resolve themselves. Easier said than done. But FSU looks to be rebounding. That will help. Clemson finally looks to have a quarterback again. That helps. Miami and Va Tech look lost, but hopefully some other schools can fill the void.

With that said, the ACC looks like the final years of the old Big East, which contorted itself trying to make its basketball and football work. The ACC has a chance where the Big East was doomed by having too many non-football playing schools. The ACC's problem is fixable. Just win baby. But they better do it soon before it's too late, and the clock is ticking.

Sort of.. Mostly.
Now that the league has adopted the incentivized model, I hope Duke wins more than ever to spit in the eye of those demanding a larger piece of the pie.
For YEARS they demanded Duke try harder in FB.. well that's seemingly here! And the rest of the league will need to take a few lumps. Cause and effect of be careful what you wish for.

If I'm being honest, other than some wistful nostalgia and familiarity... I'm a bit tired of the way the ACC is being run.
Flip being hammered, bad calls, too much physicality being allowed to hide crappy teams, phantom PI calls that effectively end a game. Duke seems to be getting the short end of the stick, more than other programs.
If this is the way the league wants it, I'm FINE to move on. They have a lot to atone for if you ask me.

[budwom]

no matter what new schemes the ACC comes up with, revenue per team will be WAY below that of the B1G and the SEC, so the Clemsons and FSUs of the league will not be assuaged. But it's not clear what recourse they have, either.

[sagegrouse]

maybe I'm being naive, but I just don't see them doing that. And I would imagine that at least in the B1G's case, there would be a mighty legal battle should they try to do so. No reason to take on that mess with so much money pouring in.

Kicking weak performing teams out of a conference is not "collegial," to say the least. It is not exactly in keeping with academic values espoused by every league.

Schools, however, could leave in a group and form a new conference. It happened 60 years ago when the four CA schools plus UDub left the PCC to form something called AAWU. Gradually new members were added to form the PAC-8, 10, 12. The only team left on the sidelines was the Idaho Vandals, a member of the PCC. Now, of course. The PAC-12 is going to lose teams to the Big Ten.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I'll reiterate that if the writing is on the wall, it will be much better for Duke to jump ship before the conference collapses. If the SEC/BIG break up the ACC, we will lose any perceived leverage and won't find ourselves in a very comfortable position.

[uh_no]

Kicking weak performing teams out of a conference is not "collegial," to say the least. It is not exactly in keeping with academic values espoused by every league.

Schools, however, could leave in a group and form a new conference. It happened 60 years ago when the four CA schools plus UDub left the PCC to form something called AAWU. Gradually new members were added to form the PAC-8, 10, 12. The only team left on the sidelines was the Idaho Vandals, a member of the PCC. Now, of course. The PAC-12 is going to lose teams to the Big Ten.

the big east chucked temple back in the day...and i'm sure if the SEC could chuck vandy, they would...but they're making enough big bucks to tolerate a freeloader right now.

[Kdogg]

I'll reiterate that if the writing is on the wall, it will be much better for Duke to jump ship before the conference collapses. If the SEC/BIG break up the ACC, we will lose any perceived leverage and won't find ourselves in a very comfortable position.

It pains me to ask this but: Who wants us? The B1G and SEC are on track to be super conferences. When the next round of expansion starts, our best option is to try to bind ourselves to UNC as it goes to the B1G. The next option would be the A second tier conference that would be formed from the left over pieces of the ACC, PAC? and Big 12. We want to avoid the B conference made of the leftover's leftovers.