Attention data nerds (538)

[JasonEvans]

Some of you may have heard a little while ago that as part of the Disney/ABC layoffs, they let a bunch of folks at 538 go including Nate Silver.

Well, now we know that G Elliot Morris of The Economist is the new Nate: https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/s...51071344156673

My bet is that 538 is going to cut back on some of the sports and entertainment stuff they did and really just focus on politics and opinion polls.

[Skydog]

Some of you may have heard a little while ago that as part of the Disney/ABC layoffs, they let a bunch of folks at 538 go including Nate Silver.

Well, now we know that G Elliot Morris of The Economist is the new Nate: https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/s...51071344156673

My bet is that 538 is going to cut back on some of the sports and entertainment stuff they did and really just focus on politics and opinion polls.

I hope all the changes aren’t mainly focused on cost-cutting. If not change might be good. I’m a Nate Silver fan from way back but he began doing some weird, ill thought out Twitter posting during Covid. And 538 itself has been getting a bit stale and quality control seems to have waned. As a tiny example they recently iterated through several poor NBA prediction models, each worse than the prior one. And their soccer prediction models are a joke. But their political prediction models remained some of the very best despite mischaracterizations to the contrary.

For the first few years of their existence I checked 538 out every day. In the last couple of years not so much. So hopefully it gets spruced up rather than gutted.

[crimsondevil]

I hope all the changes aren’t mainly focused on cost-cutting. If not change might be good. I’m a Nate Silver fan from way back but he began doing some weird, ill thought out Twitter posting during Covid. And 538 itself has been getting a bit stale and quality control seems to have waned. As a tiny example they recently iterated through several poor NBA prediction models, each worse than the prior one. And their soccer prediction models are a joke. But their political prediction models remained some of the very best despite mischaracterizations to the contrary.

For the first few years of their existence I checked 538 out every day. In the last couple of years not so much. So hopefully it gets spruced up rather than gutted.

Agree with this, also as a long-time 538/Silver fan. It kinda feels like Nate himself was becoming less interested in the election models, etc. However, I believe Silver has said that he still owns the IP for the models, so I don't know what is going to happen to them once he leaves. It would be a shame if Nate let them languish and ABC/538 ended up making a less robust ones.

[JasonEvans]

Agree with this, also as a long-time 538/Silver fan. It kinda feels like Nate himself was becoming less interested in the election models, etc. However, I believe Silver has said that he still owns the IP for the models, so I don't know what is going to happen to them once he leaves. It would be a shame if Nate let them languish and ABC/538 ended up making a less robust ones.

Yes, Nate absolutely owns the model and will be taking it with him wherever he goes. I would imagine someone will pay him to do it for the next election. I would also imagine that 538 will have some new model that will be a major part of their 2024 coverage of the election. That's a good thing.

Nate is really into poker and I believe he is writing a book on it at the moment. His interest in polling has clearly waned in recent years. While I am sad that he and ABC decided to part ways, I wonder if this might not end up being better for both of them in the long term.

[OldPhiKap]

My bet is that 538 is going to cut back on some of the sports and entertainment stuff they did and really just focus on politics and opinion polls.

I hope so.

[curtis325]

Yes, Nate absolutely owns the model and will be taking it with him wherever he goes. I would imagine someone will pay him to do it for the next election. I would also imagine that 538 will have some new model that will be a major part of their 2024 coverage of the election. That's a good thing.

Nate is really into poker and I believe he is writing a book on it at the moment. His interest in polling has clearly waned in recent years. While I am sad that he and ABC decided to part ways, I wonder if this might not end up being better for both of them in the long term.

Possibly because polling has become more and more difficult. Models are nice and Nate's is fine, but GIGO still rules.

[tommy]

Nate Cohn had overtaken Nate Silver anyway as the go-to guy for analysis of the polling and for political predictions.

And yeah the 538 podcast had gotten really stale. I rarely listened anymore.

[Phredd3]

Nate Cohn had overtaken Nate Silver anyway as the go-to guy for analysis of the polling and for political predictions.

And yeah the 538 podcast had gotten really stale. I rarely listened anymore.

I was done with the podcast the moment they let Clare Malone go.