Pick the Top 5 movies of Summer 2023

[JasonEvans]

Hurry up and vote! The poll will only stay open for 2 days!!

Pick 5 films... not 4 and not 6. Our goal is to see who can get all 5 of the top domestic (US and Canada) boxoffice hits of the summer (May to mid/late September).

Good luck, gonna be a brutal field.

[JasonEvans]

Every one of these films is expected to make over $150 million at the boxoffice... I am unsure what the record is for movies making $200 mil in one summer, but I bet we get 7 or more. This may be the toughest contest we have ever had.

And adding to the struggle is that there really aren't many of these that are expected to top $300 mil. Usually, you can make your picks easy by saying, "well, these three are locks" but (as Udaman said in the other version of this thread that we had to close) I truly only see one flick that I know for certain is going to be in the top 5.

Whew... good luck, folks!

[JasonEvans]

I accidentally left Spiderverse out at first... yikes! It has been added now and no one has voted yet so we should be good.

[Phredd3]

I voted with my heart not my head. I'm not sure Oppenheimer is really much beyond a huge advertising budget. But I want it to be that good. I suspect it won't be, but there you go.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I hadn't heard of Elemental, but when I saw it was Pixar, I knew I better check it out, trailer included.

That made it easy to leave off my list; it looks like a seizure inducing chaotic mess, that didn't even have me remotely interested.

And of course that's why it will be the #1 hit of the summer and make me lose.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I voted with my heart not my head. I'm not sure Oppenheimer is really much beyond a huge advertising budget. But I want it to be that good. I suspect it won't be, but there you go.

It can still be really good and not make the top 5. Transformers will probably make it (and make me lose) and you know it won't be good.

[JasonEvans]

Stunned that Blue Beetle has more votes than Transformers and Pixar's Elemental combined thus far. Love the variety of our picks.

I would not have pegged Indy 5 as a sure-thing but we are all voting for it. Indy 4 was three shades of awful (though it still made $317 mil).

Also, all you folks who are voting for Spiderverse are aware that the original did $190 million in 2018, right? The boxoffice climate was way better and superhero fatigue wasn't a thing yet... but you folks seem to think the sequel is going to do 20% more than the original... ok.

On the other hand, I cannot imagine anyone who saw the first one not coming back for more so maybe $190 mil is the absolute floor for this film and there had to be folks who saw it on cable after its theatrical run who are now fans too. Hmmm, suddenly I am talking myself into being mad I didn't vote for it.

Hardest contest we have ever had... period, end of story.

[pcal6vb]

Stunned that Blue Beetle has more votes than Transformers and Pixar's Elemental combined thus far. Love the variety of our picks.

I would not have pegged Indy 5 as a sure-thing but we are all voting for it. Indy 4 was three shades of awful (though it still made $317 mil).

Also, all you folks who are voting for Spiderverse are aware that the original did $190 million in 2018, right? The boxoffice climate was way better and superhero fatigue wasn't a thing yet... but you folks seem to think the sequel is going to do 20% more than the original... ok.

On the other hand, I cannot imagine anyone who saw the first one not coming back for more so maybe $190 mil is the absolute floor for this film and there had to be folks who saw it on cable after its theatrical run who are now fans too. Hmmm, suddenly I am talking myself into being mad I didn't vote for it.

Hardest contest we have ever had... period, end of story.

Blue Beetle could be tempting because it sits out there in August more or less by itself, and could carry into Labor Day weekend. It would be putting a lot of faith in a somewhat obscure comic book character, though. (Of course, Guardians is a test case for that).

If this contest was for worldwide box office, then Transformers would have a stronger case. Domestic totals on the previous 3 Transformers movies have been relatively modest; they really made their money overseas.

Elemental seems like it should be an obvious contender, but the recent lackluster performances of Lightyear and Strange World may be making folks gun shy.

I ultimately went with (in order of confidence):

1. Guardians 3 (early positive buzz + past success of the franchise + assume folks will want to see closure)
2. The Flash (a Spider Man No Way Home-like cameo fest will be a draw if it is actually also good + the studio seems confident despite the bad press around the lead actor)
3. Little Mermaid (going purely on past success of live action Aladdin and Beauty of the Beast (live action Lion King was a juggernaut, but Mermaid hews closer to the other two in nature))
4. Indiana Jones (Crystal Skull made over $300M domestic despite terrible reviews; if this one's better, it should succeed despite the different theater climate of the 2020s)
5. Elemental (this was a tough decision, but assuming it approaches somewhere between the domestic totals of Inside Out and Coco (most recent comparable pre-pandemic stand-alone Pixar movies), it ought to top my closest omissions of Fast X and Mission Impossible)

My heart wanted to go with Mission Impossible, as that is the summer movie I am most anticipating; but the domestic box office numbers of the 3 most recent MI movies would portend that this one falls right around $200M. Others on this list have a chance to hit $300M or more.

Barbie seems like the biggest wildcard to me. I have no idea how to gauge that one. You could tell me it will gross $60M or that it will gross $300M and I would believe either.

Looking forward to being surprised!

[JasonEvans]

Time is running out to make your picks... only a few hours left.

[bundabergdevil]

In like a dirty shirt.

[PackMan97]

Time is running out to make your picks... only a few hours left.

This contest was fixed due to the short voting period.

This is the time I finally would have gone 5 for 5 and you didn't give me enough time to vote!

* picks I would have made will be announced at the end of August.

[JasonEvans]

This contest was fixed due to the short voting period.

This is the time I finally would have gone 5 for 5 and you didn't give me enough time to vote!

* picks I would have made will be announced at the end of August.

You can announce them now and I will allow it.

[JasonEvans]

Not saying any of this will come to pass, but I was fiddling with some numbers this morning...

Early estimates are that Guardians 3 is going to do $116 mil in its opening weekend. That is 20% below the $146 mil opening for Guardians 2. Guardians 2 ended up making $389 mil at the domestic boxoffice. If Guardians 3 earns 20% less in its full run then it will still make $310 mil in total boxoffice, which should be easily enough to be one of our top 5.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Not saying any of this will come to pass, but I was fiddling with some numbers this morning...

Early estimates are that Guardians 3 is going to do $116 mil in its opening weekend. That is 20% below the $146 mil opening for Guardians 2. Guardians 2 ended up making $389 mil at the domestic boxoffice. If Guardians 3 earns 20% less in its full run then it will still make $310 mil in total boxoffice, which should be easily enough to be one of our top 5.

Interesting article here. While it's good to have action at the box office for theaters, G3 is the lowest Disney/Marvel kick off to the Summer.
Of nine movies, it comes in dead last.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...180911423.html

[PackMan97]

You can announce them now and I will allow it.

Naw, you guys disallow editing posts like 10 minutes after you make them. I need more like the months

[JasonEvans]

After an opening weekend that might have presented a bit of a concern, Guardians of the Galaxy 3 had a phenomenal second weekend. It made $60.5 mil and only dropped 49% from its opening weekend. Most Marvel flicks drop 60+% from opening weekend. Ant Man: Quantumania dropped a stunning 70% in its second weekend. This 49% decline is a sign of strong word of mouth and repeat business, something that should last throughout Guardians run.

The film is currently at $213.2 million in total domestic boxoffice. It is pretty much impossible to imagine that it does not comfortably cross the $300 mil mark at this point. I know this is going to be a super competitive summer, but there is just no way $300 mil doesn't make you a lock to be in our Top 5.

Next weekend brings Fast X. I am seeing it on Monday and will have a report soon after.

[Phredd3]

After an opening weekend that might have presented a bit of a concern, Guardians of the Galaxy 3 had a phenomenal second weekend. It made $60.5 mil and only dropped 49% from its opening weekend. Most Marvel flicks drop 60+% from opening weekend. Ant Man: Quantumania dropped a stunning 70% in its second weekend. This 49% decline is a sign of strong word of mouth and repeat business, something that should last throughout Guardians run.

The film is currently at $213.2 million in total domestic boxoffice. It is pretty much impossible to imagine that it does not comfortably cross the $300 mil mark at this point. I know this is going to be a super competitive summer, but there is just no way $300 mil doesn't make you a lock to be in our Top 5.

Next weekend brings Fast X. I am seeing it on Monday and will have a report soon after.

I saw Guardians 3 this past weekend, and there's no way it isn't a top five summer film. I don't think my family puts it into the top five of all Marvel movies, but it was universally appreciated. I'm not at all surprised to hear that it's likely to have a long tail.

[bigperm13]

Seen Vol 3 three times. Loved it every time.

[JasonEvans]

Next weekend brings Fast X. I am seeing it on Monday and will have a report soon after.

Technically, the review embargo (lifts on Wednesday) does not allow me to post extensive comments about the film. But, I am allowed to post "social media commentary" on it. So, click here (and maybe give a fella a retweet or like): https://twitter.com/JasonDukeEvans/s...28941072203779

[Phredd3]

Technically, the review embargo (lifts on Wednesday) does not allow me to post extensive comments about the film. But, I am allowed to post "social media commentary" on it. So, click here (and maybe give a fella a retweet or like): https://twitter.com/JasonDukeEvans/s...28941072203779

Your tweet sums up my assumptions based on the trailer, which played prior to Guardians 3. I have no plans to see the film.