Duke MBB 2023-24 schedule intel

[AustinDevil]

The commish is meeting with all the coaches and ADs soon to address the issue.

It may come down to:
(A) raising a big stink to try and get TSC participants to move away from just numbers
(B) telling the ACC coaches to play the best they can in early season games. (I have always believed that some coaches with some teams will bring them along more slowly -- an expensive tradeoff in giving up loads of tournament revenue)

I do believe that Duke's #1 ranking will help, if Duke performs at that level but poor conference ratings begin to hurt. Perhaps the TSC will learn something.

None of this is necessarily wrong, but at the same time, none of it is evidence that Duke can happily load up on cupcakes in the 250+ range for this year’s season and not risk being penalized for it.

And if you think our current commish is in any way a stink-raiser, you haven’t been paying attention to him. Nor do we have any coaches with the reputational heft to do it. Duke needs a tougher OOC.

[sagegrouse]

None of this is necessarily wrong, but at the same time, none of it is evidence that Duke can happily load up on cupcakes in the 250+ range for this year’s season and not risk being penalized for it.

And if you think our current commish is in any way a stink-raiser, you haven’t been paying attention to him. Nor do we have any coaches with the reputational heft to do it. Duke needs a tougher OOC.

Don't disagree at all.

[tommy]

I don’t see the need to schedule true cupcakes at all. Why not have the whole OOC schedule be top 100 or 150 teams at worst? Are we really that afraid we’d lose a lot of those games ? I’m not. I’d rather have the team develop vs tougher competition and at the same time improve our SOS and Quadrant profile for down the line. Playing true cupcakes in a dead home arena does nothing for us IMO.

[JasonEvans]

I don’t see the need to schedule true cupcakes at all. Why not have the whole OOC schedule be top 100 or 150 teams at worst? Are we really that afraid we’d lose a lot of those games ? I’m not. I’d rather have the team develop vs tougher competition and at the same time improve our SOS and Quadrant profile for down the line. Playing true cupcakes in a dead home arena does nothing for us IMO.

It is worth noting that coaches like to schedule games against teams lower in the rankings because it is an opportunity to try things and to give opportunities to players who might not otherwise get chances against a better opponent.

There is a big difference in playing a top 150 team where you are likely to win by 10 or playing a bottom 100 team where you are likely to win by 25.

I'd love to see Duke up the SOS, but I would rather see it by playing more top 50, P6 teams, not by trading our games against teams ranked below 250 for teams ranked in the top 150.

[scottdude8]

It is worth noting that coaches like to schedule games against teams lower in the rankings because it is an opportunity to try things and to give opportunities to players who might not otherwise get chances against a better opponent.

There is a big difference in playing a top 150 team where you are likely to win by 10 or playing a bottom 100 team where you are likely to win by 25.

I'd love to see Duke up the SOS, but I would rather see it by playing more top 50, P6 teams, not by trading our games against teams ranked below 250 for teams ranked in the top 150.

While we all like to hate on the NET and the quadrant systems, I think one thing the new status quo does accomplish is making it harder to "game" the rankings, like was often done with the RPI. Teams used to be able to artificially inflate their RPI by scheduling more of those 100-150 teams as opposed to bottom 100 teams... while that difference probably doesn't tell us that much about a team's quality, IIRC it could massively affect the RPI. Now, it's the difference between a Q3 and a Q4 game, which is largely inconsequential at the top of the seed list.

I will say that I disagree a bit with Jason about the scheduling independent of how it affects rankings/seedings... well, maybe disagree is a strong word, but I'd like something in the middle. I think that a team can benefit from some early season game pressure from one of those 100-150 teams. It may not look as great on the resume to have a 10 point win, but it could pay dividends in terms of team development. And there's always the off chance a team like that ends up a surprise and gives you an extra Q2 win (I think College of Charleston did that for UNC last year).

[DavidBenAkiva]

It is worth noting that coaches like to schedule games against teams lower in the rankings because it is an opportunity to try things and to give opportunities to players who might not otherwise get chances against a better opponent.

There is a big difference in playing a top 150 team where you are likely to win by 10 or playing a bottom 100 team where you are likely to win by 25.

I'd love to see Duke up the SOS, but I would rather see it by playing more top 50, P6 teams, not by trading our games against teams ranked below 250 for teams ranked in the top 150.

Agree with what Jason wrote - there's a reason to schedule the 250+ group of schools. Even Gonzaga, Kansas, and Michigan State are doing that and they are each aggressive with scheduling high-quality non-conference opponents. Last season, both Gonzaga and Kansas scheduled 3 teams that ended up in the 225+ rankings by T-Rank while MSU had 2 of those opponents as well as a team that was ranked 192nd.

As I wrote upthread, I think we are jumping the gun on griping about the quality of the non-conference until we find out the final 4 opponents.

[tommy]

Agree with what Jason wrote - there's a reason to schedule the 250+ group of schools. Even Gonzaga, Kansas, and Michigan State are doing that and they are each aggressive with scheduling high-quality non-conference opponents. Last season, both Gonzaga and Kansas scheduled 3 teams that ended up in the 225+ rankings by T-Rank while MSU had 2 of those opponents as well as a team that was ranked 192nd.

As I wrote upthread, I think we are jumping the gun on griping about the quality of the non-conference until we find out the final 4 opponents.

What is that reason? To be able to try out more stuff? Look at the schools ranked 50-100 or even 75-100 in the final NET last year. We wouldn’t feel comfortable trying new sets or schemes or playing Jayden Schutt or TJ Power against those kinds of teams? I don’t see a problem with it. The teams at 250 don’t provide nearly as much value for us IMO.

[DavidBenAkiva]

What is that reason? To be able to try out more stuff? Look at the schools ranked 50-100 or even 75-100 in the final NET last year. We wouldn’t feel comfortable trying new sets or schemes or playing Jayden Schutt or TJ Power against those kinds of teams? I don’t see a problem with it. The teams at 250 don’t provide nearly as much value for us IMO.

Why does the team schedule exhibition games? They need to get reps in against someone else besides their own teammates during practice. As Jason noted, it's also about variance. If you have a 99% chance of winning against an overmatched opponent, that means that you are almost certain to be able to run certain actions, refine the rotations, try out certain guys in certain situations, etc. If you have a 75% chance of winning, then you can expect a much tighter first half and might not ever build a big-enough lead to get through the playbook, rotations, and bench guys you hoped to play in live situations. The game may only be comfortable for the final 5 minutes of action and there's a decent chance it won't be comfortable at all.

A lot of coaches will try out plays early in the season just so they know if the guys can run them later in the year when they need a change of pace or buzzer beater or something. You can try it in practice all you want, but it's different when the opponent is different. At the end of the day, every high-major coach is going to schedule at least a couple of so-called cupcakes. They do it, I can only assume, because it's a good idea.

[Dr. Maturin]

To DBA's point earlier - if Duke schedules 3 more potential Q1 games (ACC/SEC, game at MSG, 3rd game somewhere) then I'll retract my complaints. That would be a quality schedule.

I'm less worried about the buy games at home. Provided we win them, they have very little effect on the season or Duke's resume. Those are almost always going to be an easy win and a Q3/Q4 game. To get a Q2 win at home, a team has to be in the top 75 of NET - that's getting into the territory of teams like Oral Roberts that could beat you if you don't really show up. I wouldn't mind the occasional game in that category, but generally buy games are there for lower-stakes team building.

[JasonEvans]

Look at the schools ranked 50-100 or even 75-100 in the final NET last year. We wouldn’t feel comfortable trying new sets or schemes or playing Jayden Schutt or TJ Power against those kinds of teams? I don’t see a problem with it.

You mean teams like:
Providence - 51
USC - 55
Pitt - 56
Michigan - 57
Az St - 61
Clemson - 67
Oklahoma - 70
Wisconsin - 72
Florida - 73
VT - 75
Dayton - 77
Wake - 89
Nebraska - 92
UNLV - 94

All of those teams had multiple Quad 1 wins last year. They are all dangerous and even a top 5 team is going to face legit danger of losing to them. I know every game can have variance (Duke barely beats Pitt at home one time and crushes them by nearly 30 another) but the odds are very slim that Duke is "trying stuff out" and playing deep bench players against USC, Michigan, Dayton, Wisconsin, or UNLV.

[UrinalCake]

The loss to SFA hurt but I would gladly take an OOC loss every few years in exchange for a stronger strength of schedule and more exciting home games to watch every season. Beating up on teams ranked 250+ isnt all that beneficial and is boring.

[JasonEvans]

https://goduke.com/news/2023/5/9/men...challenge.aspx

Details of the lame MTE, named the Blue Devil Challenge (strange name because none of these teams will present much of a challenge), have been announced.

Blue Devil Challenge Schedule

Tuesday, Nov. 14
Bucknell at La Salle

Friday, Nov. 17
Bucknell at Duke
Southern Indiana at La Salle

Monday, Nov. 20
Southern Indiana at Bucknell

Tuesday Nov 21
La Salle at Duke

Friday Nov 24
Southern Indiana at Duke

[hallcity]

Duke will be playing Bucknell on 11/17/23 and Lasalle on 11/21/23 in Duke's MTE, such as it is.

[brevity]

It appears that Duke will be hosting a Multi-Team Event this upcoming season, featuring Bucknell, LaSalle, and Southern Indiana. Dates are TBD.

https://twitter.com/roccomiller8/sta...yumM1xGmhXbIUw

Dates are no longer TBD.

GoDuke: Men’s Basketball Announces 2023 Blue Devil Challenge

The field for the Blue Devil Challenge, a men's basketball multi-team event (MTE) to played in November, was announced Tuesday with Duke hosting Bucknell, La Salle and Southern Indiana at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Game times and broadcast details are still to be determined.

Friday, Nov. 17
Bucknell at Duke

Tuesday Nov 21
La Salle at Duke

Friday Nov 24
Southern Indiana at Duke

I wonder what happened with the tournament in Charleston. That tournament now has a team from every major conference other than the ACC. Duke was the last ACC school to schedule an MTE so the Charleston tournament won't have an ACC team. There's no way they planned it that way. I have to think they were hoping for Duke.

The Charleston Classic field: Houston, St. John's, LSU, Dayton, Utah, North Texas, and Towson

FYI, Wake Forest was recently announced as the 8th team for the Charleston Classic.

In April, it was announced that the Deacs would play in the 2023 Cayman Island Classic alongside Drake, LMU. Marshall, Oakland, Ole Miss, Stephen F. Austin, and Utah State. As teams can only play in 1 MTE (multi-team event) per season, it seems as if Wake will no longer be making the trip to the Cayman Islands.

[DavidBenAkiva]

JasonEvans and Brevity rushing to post the same info

[JasonEvans]

JasonEvans and Brevity rushing to post the same info

I beat him by a good 6 minutes!

Hallcity was also in the race, perhaps the gif should look like this instead...

[brevity]

JasonEvans and Brevity rushing to post the same info

Thank you for not using a GIF of sumo wrestlers. It was the Wake Forest link that slowed me down.

Kudos to hallcity for squeezing in between (not looking forward to that GIF).

Edited to add: it happened again! That 3-car wreck looks gnarly. Good thing I'm older and I have more insurance.

[azzefkram]

https://goduke.com/news/2023/5/9/men...challenge.aspx

Details of the lame MTE, named the Blue Devil Challenge (strange name because none of these teams will present much of a challenge), have been announced.

Maybe it will be a challenge for the fans to get jazzed about it.

[duke2x]

Duke has 5 non-conference spots: maybe Baylor in NYC, 1 SEC, and 3 without rumor. The current split is 5H, 1A/N with 7-4 and 6-5 the likely outcome.

Open spots in 2023: 11/6 (if allowed)
11/27 (after Thanksgiving): all week but there might be an ACC game.
12/4: all week but there might be an ACC game.
12/18: all week in theory but there might be an ACC game.

[TywinBlue]

I will hold my comments until the entire schedule is revealed...