Way Way Way too early 2023-24 top 25 NCAA Men's Basketball rankings

[Duke79UNLV77]

DBA, you can add Seth Davis in the Athletic to your Too Early consensus rankings: https://theathletic.com/4374061/2023...shared_article

1. Marquette
2. Purdue
3. Creighton
4. Miami
5. Florida Atl
6. Mich St.
7. UCLA
8. Arizona
9. Kentucky
10. Duke

Considering Seth went to Duke, it is almost like he is not paying any attention to the team. He lists Ryan Young among the players leaving despite Young stating he will be back. He expects Flip to go and Roach to stay (many folks seem to expect the opposite, though who knows how either will decide).

Even more confounding, how does he not have U Conn anywhere in the top 10??? Maybe, the national championship run will push a couple of guys to go pro who were not projected in the draft before the tournament, but they still should clearly be top 10 and potentially #1 by a landslide if everyone returns who could.

I am also surprised by people who either rank Virginia or put them in the others considered at this point. It's possible to reconstruct a team immediately through the portal, but right now, can they even field a team?

[DavidBenAkiva]

DBA, you can add Seth Davis in the Athletic to your Too Early consensus rankings: https://theathletic.com/4374061/2023...shared_article

1. Marquette
2. Purdue
3. Creighton
4. Miami
5. Florida Atl
6. Mich St.
7. UCLA
8. Arizona
9. Kentucky
10. Duke

Considering Seth went to Duke, it is almost like he is not paying any attention to the team. He lists Ryan Young among the players leaving despite Young stating he will be back. He expects Flip to go and Roach to stay (many folks seem to expect the opposite, though who knows how either will decide). Most significantly, he says this about Duke:



Ummm, Seth, you project Duke to return 3 starters and 4 of our top 7 players, including our starting backcourt. How is that not a shift from past Duke teams?!

On second thought, DBA, maybe don't bother to include this poorly researched notion of an early top 25.

Davis project Filipowski and Young (???) to depart.

I'm sure his and other rankings will look different by the end of the summer.

[CDu]

Even more confounding, how does he not have U Conn anywhere in the top 10??? Maybe, the national championship run will push a couple of guys to go pro who were not projected in the draft before the tournament, but they still should clearly be top 10 and potentially #1 by a landslide if everyone returns who could.

I am also surprised by people who either rank Virginia or put them in the others considered at this point. It's possible to reconstruct a team immediately through the portal, but right now, can they even field a team?

Yeah, I don't get that list at all by Davis. Then again, I also don't think he is actually very insightful about college basketball (ironic, given that's his job). But this list doesn't look like he put much effort into it.

I also agree about UVa. It would be one thing if Tony Bennett ran a program that was well-suited to make roster changes on the fly. But his system requires a level of discipline and precision that typically requires a couple of years to master. So it's hard to see a team with so few returning players (and potentially none of its starters) being really good next year.

[Southgate0809]

Usually, when they do these way too early rankings, Duke is listed somewhere in the teens with the explanation being "we don't know yet who will leave for the draft from Duke, but we expect them all to leave. We can't rank them higher than that just based on incoming freshmen, so we'll have to wait and see how good the new freshmen are."

How good of a feeling is it not to see that this year?

[Southgate0809]

Agreed about UVA. It seems like there have been many times where they're underranked going into the season and wind up being just as dominant as they always are, but this feels different.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Updated with The Athletic and USA Today

Way-Too-Early-Top-25_4-4-2023V1.3.jpg

[CDu]

Agreed about UVA. It seems like there have been many times where they're underranked going into the season and wind up being just as dominant as they always are, but this feels different.

Right, as a general rule of thumb: when they have a bunch of continuity, expect them to do a bit better than things look on paper. When they don’t, expect a down year.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Updated with The Athletic and USA Today

Way-Too-Early-Top-25_4-4-2023V1.3.jpg

I know this whole premise is silly but someone's throwing darts in the dark with that UNC ranking. "I have no idea what their team will look like next year, so 23 sounds right."

[DavidBenAkiva]

I know this whole premise is silly but someone's throwing darts in the dark with that UNC ranking. "I have no idea what their team will look like next year, so 23 sounds right."

The crazy thing is the number of people doing the same thinking with UNC. They have started each of the past 4 seasons in the AP Top 25 and then fallen out of the polls.

2020: AP Preseason #9, 14-19 record, unranked in final AP Poll, would have missed the NCAA Tournament
2021: AP Preseason #16, 18-11 record, unranked in Final AP Poll, NCAA Tournament 8-seed, lost in R64
2022: AP Preseason #19, 29-10 record, unranked in Final AP Poll, NCAA Tournament 8-seed, National Runner Up <-- 6 weeks of great basketball amidst 4 years of mediocrity
2023: AP Preseason #1, 20-13, unranked unranked in Final AP Poll, missed NCAA Tournament

What's the common denominator here? Is it Armando Bacot? RJ Davis has been part of the last 3 year's of this. I'm all for them falling out of the Top 25 again now that I think about it.

[AGDukesky]

Another weird ranking to me are those putting Houston in the Top Ten. I guess it is a compliment to Sampson but the team is losing some vital players with an okay recruiting class and is moving to the Big XII. I just don’t see anything better than maybe top 15 and almost certainly at least 3-4 more losses due to the new conference alone.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The crazy thing is the number of people doing the same thinking with UNC. They have started each of the past 4 seasons in the AP Top 25 and then fallen out of the polls.

Must spread sporks, this post makes me smile.

[Natty_B]

Davis project Filipowski and Young (???) to depart.

I'm sure his and other rankings will look different by the end of the summer.

This Seth Davis (son of powerful DC lobbyist Lanny) list has set a new bar for half assing. With the portal these lists are even more pointless than they used to be (apparently they get clicks though).

[Nugget]

Updated with The Athletic and USA Today

Way-Too-Early-Top-25_4-4-2023V1.3.jpg

DBA, not sure if you want to add John Rothstein's picks to your consensus compilation but here's the link.

https://collegehoopstoday.com/index...eason-edition/

[DavidBenAkiva]

DBA, not sure if you want to add John Rothstein's picks to your consensus compilation but here's the link.

https://collegehoopstoday.com/index...eason-edition/

Can't stop, won't stop.

Funny that Rothstein has 14 players listed as starters + bench for Kentucky...

Way-Too-Early-Top-25_4-4-2023v1.4.jpg

[tommy]

Seth Davis seems affable and a cool guy to have a beer with. But how he has ascended to top studio analyst for CBS is beyond me.

I don't know how cool of a guy to have a beer with he'd be. He seems like his shorts are too tight. But regardless of that, Seth is just not . . . very . . . smart about college basketball. He's routinely wrong about everything.

[johnb]

I don't know how cool of a guy to have a beer with he'd be. He seems like his shorts are too tight. But regardless of that, Seth is just not . . . very . . . smart about college basketball. He's routinely wrong about everything.

It's kinda strange that he'd miss details that wouldn't be missed by anyone on this board. Yes, Flip might go pro, but his decision seems the least clear of any of the current players, so why be definitive? And Jeremy might leave Duke, but it's prob not to test the NBA draft. And Ryan announced his return 2 weeks ago (which is 300 days in Recruitment Years).

I'm sure Davis is busy, but he's a Duke guy--he needs to do his homework... Or, as might be possible, he outsourced the writing of this column to an intern, which would be worse.

[MChambers]

here is a take from the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...-early-top-25/

Marquette, Purdue, UConn, Duke, Creighton, Miami . . .

[brevity]

Can't stop, won't stop.

Way-Too-Early-Top-25_4-4-2023v1.4.jpg

That's the spirit!

Can't spork you, but the best DBR content brings so something uniquely helpful that the rest of Internet would benefit if they just knew about it. That said, The Field of 68 has also put up a consensus grid.

I think yours is easier to read: you can focus on one team and see how its rankings vary. Theirs is kind of a logo mess, but it does include their own ranking (Field of 68) and T-Rank (and lists Jon Rothstein as Stadium). Probably worth adding.

[kAzE]

I actually think the departure of Caleb Love really helps UNC. I wouldn't be surprised if they beat those predictions and end up a top 15 team.

I'm not a Hubert Davis believer at all, but a team built around RJ Davis and Armando Bacot should be pretty formidable. Love's awful shot selection really hurt them last season.

[bshrader]

I actually think the departure of Caleb Love really helps UNC. I wouldn't be surprised if they beat those predictions and end up a top 15 team.

I'm not a Hubert Davis believer at all, but a team built around RJ Davis and Armando Bacot should be pretty formidable. Love's awful shot selection really hurt them last season.

Love's shot selection was, indeed, awful and he was wildly inefficient. But he wasnt the only issue they had. Nance's ineffectiveness from the perimeter hurt them (he dropped over 13% from his 2021-2022 to his 2022-2023 season and at one point late in the year I believe he was sub-30% from 3), which would allow teams to sag and double Bacot in the post. Leaky, outside of a couple games, being inept on the offensive end was an issue. And they had absolutely zero depth, which Hubert has no one to blame but himself for.