2023 MLB Season

[kmspeaks]

The Braves have had the magic touch in getting their stars locked up to long term deals that appear team friendly. Their farm system is poorly rated right now but I think that's a function of so many of those guys now contributing in the bigs. The division is really tough with the free spending Mets and Phils, but the Braves are solidly positioned to contend for a long time.

It's a really fun time to be a Braves fan.

All star Ozzie Albies - signed through 2027
ROY, All star, and MVP front runner Ronald Acuna - signed through 2028
ROY runner up Spencer Strider - signed through 2029
GG winner Sean Murphy - signed through 2029
GG winner and MVP contender Matt Olson - signed through 2030
ROY and GG snub Michael Harris - signed through 2032
All star and MVP contender Austin Riley - signed through 2033

Seems to me that Cohen and Dombroski spend money indiscriminately while AA is willing to spend but does it in a more measured manner. Personally I agreed with him on letting both Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson walk. The big test for me is Max Fried in a few years, don't cheap out Alex!!

One more note on the farm system - the Braves were severely restricted (might as well have been an outright ban) in the international market for a few years because of rule breaking by the previous regime and also had to release 13 prospects they had signed illegitimately. When you combine that with the number of young guys contributing, and the trades for Olson and Murphy the farm is gutted, but with the long term contracts they have time to build it back up.

[jv001]

The Cardinal's starting rotation SUCKS. This could be a long season. I'm beginning to regret purchasing MLB.TV for this season.

[kmspeaks]

For the Cardinal fans, what are your thoughts on the Tyler O'Neill drama? Seems to me like Marmol could have kept this in house, unless O'Neill is a repeat offender.

[DUKIECB]

Braves walk it off in a thriller against the Padres in their home offer last night. It was a great back and forth game with the Braves getting a double and a single with two outs in the 9th.

Braves have now won 4 in a row against the Cardinals and Padres. To say they are off to a great start is an understatement.

[CameronDuke]

For the Cardinal fans, what are your thoughts on the Tyler O'Neill drama? Seems to me like Marmol could have kept this in house, unless O'Neill is a repeat offender.

I think it should have been kept in house. I was at the game. The ball was hit hard to Acuña who has one of the best outfield arms in the National League. He was playing RF. O’Neill didn’t egregiously loaf around 3B to me initially or on replay. It was a 4-1 game and the run sound have meant very little. I would have liked bases loaded. So my question is why isn’t Pop Warner, the 3B coach, in the crosshairs? It seemed like a stretch for Marmol to throw O’Neill under the bus publicly like that. He has a history of injuries and it’s an April Wednesday game. Ease up.

[jv001]

I think it should have been kept in house. I was at the game. The ball was hit hard to Acuña who has one of the best outfield arms in the National League. He was playing RF. O’Neill didn’t egregiously loaf around 3B to me initially or on replay. It was a 4-1 game and the run sound have meant very little. I would have liked bases loaded. So my question is why isn’t Pop Warner, the 3B coach, in the crosshairs? It seemed like a stretch for Marmol to throw O’Neill under the bus publicly like that. He has a history of injuries and it’s an April Wednesday game. Ease up.

I agree with your take, especially since you were there. Tyler's run was important, but getting thrown out at home down 3 runs is on the 3rd base coach. Acuna is a great outfielder with a cannon, so why even chance it. Plus, the field was wet from what I read. I think Marmol is showing some frustration at this point. The front office decided to roll the dice with the pitching staff after saying they would spend $$$$$$$ in the off season. The Cardinals haven't won a playoff game in quite a while. I'm thinking MO told the press they were going to add players in order to keep Nolan Arenado from opting out.

[75Crazie]

I'm thinking MO told the press they were going to add players in order to keep Nolan Arenado from opting out.

My perverse sense of humor would find that rather appropriate if it happens ... but I would be very surprised if it does.

[CameronDuke]

The red hot Braves lost last night to the Friars. Pitching starters Soroka, Fried, and Wright are on the shelf, and now they also have relievers breaking down. Lots of concerns for pitching staff, too. Some horrific batting averages in their lineup currently, too:

Albies .212
Murphy .188
Rosario .222
Ozuna .095

I am not buying their stock just yet. Their rookie pitchers have been impressive thus far but the book will get out on them eventually I’m thinking.

[kmspeaks]

The red hot Braves lost last night to the Friars. Pitching starters Soroka, Fried, and Wright are on the shelf, and now they also have relievers breaking down. Lots of concerns for pitching staff, too. Some horrific batting averages in their lineup currently, too:

Albies .212
Murphy .188
Rosario .222
Ozuna .095

I am not buying their stock just yet. Their rookie pitchers have been impressive thus far but the book will get out on them eventually I’m thinking.

I'm not worried about batting averages with <40 plate appearances, especially the first two guys in your list. The issue will be if Brian Snitker can find the right formula to mix and match his catcher/DH/LF options and that is cause for worry. He's great at the handling people side of managing but lineup construction is not really his strong suit.

Wright will be back Tuesday, no one in the organization was realistically expecting Soroka to provide anything, and I think McHugh might have been a little roster manipulation to get Shuster back from AAA to start yesterday. Fried is mildly concerning since hamstrings can linger but it's early and while the Braves don't have anyone of his caliber they certainly have enough arms to eat innings until he returns.

I love the pitch clock rules but the Padres attempts to circumvent them the last two nights have been annoying and make the game seem really sloooooooow. Their catcher holds the ball for 3-5 seconds after every pitch because the clock doesn't start until the ball is thrown back to the pitcher. He even did it on a foul ball that hit the backstop and came back near the plate. He walked over to get it and toss it to the dugout, got a new ball from the umpire, walked back to his spot (maybe 3-4 steps), held the ball for a few seconds, and then threw it back. Throughout the game his pitchers were back on the mound standing there with their glove up and he still took a second to throw the ball back. I hope this is not a tactic that gets adopted by others.

[CameronDuke]

I'm not worried about batting averages with <40 plate appearances, especially the first two guys in your list. The issue will be if Brian Snitker can find the right formula to mix and match his catcher/DH/LF options and that is cause for worry. He's great at the handling people side of managing but lineup construction is not really his strong suit.

Wright will be back Tuesday, no one in the organization was realistically expecting Soroka to provide anything, and I think McHugh might have been a little roster manipulation to get Shuster back from AAA to start yesterday. Fried is mildly concerning since hamstrings can linger but it's early and while the Braves don't have anyone of his caliber they certainly have enough arms to eat innings until he returns.

I love the pitch clock rules but the Padres attempts to circumvent them the last two nights have been annoying and make the game seem really sloooooooow. Their catcher holds the ball for 3-5 seconds after every pitch because the clock doesn't start until the ball is thrown back to the pitcher. He even did it on a foul ball that hit the backstop and came back near the plate. He walked over to get it and toss it to the dugout, got a new ball from the umpire, walked back to his spot (maybe 3-4 steps), held the ball for a few seconds, and then threw it back. Throughout the game his pitchers were back on the mound standing there with their glove up and he still took a second to throw the ball back. I hope this is not a tactic that gets adopted by others.

Murphy is a .235 career hitter with 100+ strikeouts the past two seasons and a career OBP of .328 and OPS of .754. Pretty meh. He isn’t elite defensively either although he has one gold glove a few years ago. Strider is a Tommy John survivor on a retreaded elbow who threw 96 and 101 pitches respectively in his first two starts. Hope Snit doesn’t run his arm into the ground like the Braves have been known to do with pitching injuries (Luke Jackson and Ian Anderson to name a couple because Strider is elite. Don’t know when their closer Iglesias will be back too. Very talented team (saw them sweep the Cardinals last week in St. Louis) but like you said, small sample size of success thus far.

[acdevil]

Memo to other teams - if someone could actually muster up the fortitude to beat the Rays every now and then, that would be much appreciated.

[mr. synellinden]

Memo to other teams - if someone could actually muster up the fortitude to beat the Rays every now and then, that would be much appreciated.

They are good and maybe great with Franco back and healthy but they’ve played the A’s, Tigers and Nationals so far - possibly the three worst teams in the league. Let’s see what happens when they start playing some better teams.

[kmspeaks]

Murphy is a .235 career hitter with 100+ strikeouts the past two seasons and a career OBP of .328 and OPS of .754. Pretty meh. He isn’t elite defensively either although he has one gold glove a few years ago. Strider is a Tommy John survivor on a retreaded elbow who threw 96 and 101 pitches respectively in his first two starts. Hope Snit doesn’t run his arm into the ground like the Braves have been known to do with pitching injuries (Luke Jackson and Ian Anderson to name a couple because Strider is elite. Don’t know when their closer Iglesias will be back too. Very talented team (saw them sweep the Cardinals last week in St. Louis) but like you said, small sample size of success thus far.

I was more focused on the small sample size in the first post but I can't let this go, why are we still talking about batting average in 2023? Sean Murphy has a career OPS+ of 114 which is the same as Willson Contreras and one point better than the guy most consider the best catcher in baseball - JT Realmuto. In 2022 more than 70% of hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title had 100+ strikeouts so that's not really a concern either. Speaking of Realmuto, in his time in the big leagues Murphy is 2nd only to him in average pop time to 2nd base. You are the only person I've heard question his defense and he's considered a top 5 catcher in pretty much every ranking that exists. Sean Murphy will be just fine, and outside of Philadelphia, Baltimore, and maybe LAD, I don't think you'll find teams that wouldn't want to switch places with the Braves and their tandem.

[kmspeaks]

Memo to other teams - if someone could actually muster up the fortitude to beat the Rays every now and then, that would be much appreciated.

Win or lose doesn't matter much to me, I just want to keep seeing these sweet throwbacks!

download.jpeg

[CameronDuke]

I was more focused on the small sample size in the first post but I can't let this go, why are we still talking about batting average in 2023? Sean Murphy has a career OPS+ of 114 which is the same as Willson Contreras and one point better than the guy most consider the best catcher in baseball - JT Realmuto. In 2022 more than 70% of hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title had 100+ strikeouts so that's not really a concern either. Speaking of Realmuto, in his time in the big leagues Murphy is 2nd only to him in average pop time to 2nd base. You are the only person I've heard question his defense and he's considered a top 5 catcher in pretty much every ranking that exists. Sean Murphy will be just fine, and outside of Philadelphia, Baltimore, and maybe LAD, I don't think you'll find teams that wouldn't want to switch places with the Braves and their tandem.

Eh. Did I question his defense? Might want to go back and read what I wrote before responding. That’s a huge stretch on your part. Too tired to check the stats but I’d say Contreras and Realmuto both have 100ish more career HRs than Murphy and I know Realmuto has 200% the gold gloves than Murphy.

OPS+ is overrated to me too. It undervalues walks and doesn’t factor in baserunning. Calculations that better weight all offensive contributions (runs created, base runs and weighted on-base average) correlate better to runs than OPS does, and derived stats (wins above replacement and win shares) are stronger comparisons than OPS+ across varying conditions.

What’s his WAR?

[kmspeaks]

Eh. Did I question his defense? Might want to go back and read what I wrote before responding. That’s a huge stretch on your part. Too tired to check the stats but I’d say Contreras and Realmuto both have 100ish more career HRs than Murphy and I know Realmuto has 200% the gold gloves than Murphy.

OPS+ is overrated to me too. It undervalues walks and doesn’t factor in baserunning. Calculations that better weight all offensive contributions (runs created, base runs and weighted on-base average) correlate better to runs than OPS does, and derived stats (wins above replacement and win shares) are stronger comparisons than OPS+ across varying conditions.

What’s his WAR?

Of course they have more homers and other counting stats - they're older and have played way more games than Murphy.

Player	bWAR	per game	fWAR	per game	WRC+
Murphy	8.0	.024	10.7	.032	116
Realmuto	29.9	.029	29.9	.029	112
Contreras	20.9	.028	15.7	.021	117

[CameronDuke]

Of course they have more homers and other counting stats - they're older and have played way more games than Murphy.

Player	bWAR	per game	fWAR	per game	WRC+
Murphy	8.0	.024	10.7	.032	116
Realmuto	29.9	.029	29.9	.029	112
Contreras	20.9	.028	15.7	.021	117

So it sounds like what you’re telling me based off that chart is he has a pretty horrific WAR.

If sample size is your argument couldn’t the same be used against Murphy who hasn’t even played that many games at the
MLB level to form meaningful conclusions?

[kmspeaks]

So it sounds like what you’re telling me based off that chart is he has a pretty horrific WAR.

If sample size is your argument couldn’t the same be used against Murphy who hasn’t even played that many games at the
MLB level to form meaningful conclusions?

I'm confused, Murphy has a smaller sample size than the other two but I don't think it's too small to draw conclusions. He's had 3 full seasons, although one of them was the covid shortened year. How is his WAR horrific? It's a cumulative stat so since Realmuto has played more than 3x as many games as Murphy and Contreras more than double their WAR should be higher. That's why I broke it down per game. If you prefer, here it is per 162:

bWAR
Murphy 3.9
Realmuto 4.8
Contreras 4.6

fWAR
Murphy 5.2
Realmuto 4.8
Contreras 3.4

We're comparing two guys in the back half of their careers to one just entering his prime, but I think no matter how you stack it up Murphy is a top 5 catcher. If you want to disagree with the vast majority of people who write and talk about baseball for a living that's your prerogative. I'm just going to enjoy watching him play and thankfully he should be playing a lot more now that Snitker can't take AA's "split time" comment literally and keep him out of the lineup every other day.

[CameronDuke]

I'm confused, Murphy has a smaller sample size than the other two but I don't think it's too small to draw conclusions. He's had 3 full seasons, although one of them was the covid shortened year. How is his WAR horrific? It's a cumulative stat so since Realmuto has played more than 3x as many games as Murphy and Contreras more than double their WAR should be higher. That's why I broke it down per game. If you prefer, here it is per 162:

bWAR
Murphy 3.9
Realmuto 4.8
Contreras 4.6

fWAR
Murphy 5.2
Realmuto 4.8
Contreras 3.4

We're comparing two guys in the back half of their careers to one just entering his prime, but I think no matter how you stack it up Murphy is a top 5 catcher. If you want to disagree with the vast majority of people who write and talk about baseball for a living that's your prerogative. I'm just going to enjoy watching him play and thankfully he should be playing a lot more now that Snitker can't take AA's "split time" comment literally and keep him out of the lineup every other day.

Don’t think Murphy isn’t a top 5 catcher. Just can’t hit.

I know you mentioned you don’t put much weight on batting average but the guy is hitting .158. I disagree. I still weigh that metric fairly heavily.

[Rogue]

Padres take 3 out of 4 from Braves before heading north to take on NY Mets . Padres bats came to life tonight. 10-2 win