Who Stays and Who Goes?

[DavidBenAkiva]

Eh, aside from Love (and it's debatable his average value to their team), none of the UNC guys transferring were going to make an impact for them next year. They'll probably have a net upgrade from the portal. UVa loses a lot, with Clark, Gardner, and Vander Plas running out of eligibility and Shedrick, Traudt, and Caffaro leaving via transfer. It's going to be a substantial challenge for them to regroup, especially given the complexities of Bennett's system.

The problem for UNC is that they don't have anyone that could potentially develop in the future. A lot of the good teams that Roy had towards the end of his career were filled with guys that got a lot better as juniors and seniors. Theo Pinson, Luke Maye, Garrison Brooks, Brandon Robinson, Kenny Williams, etc. Some of those guys were top recruits coming out of high school but others were in the mid-tier (~30th-100th in RSCI) and then became good college players. They have been eviscerated of those types of players. Now they need to add starters and bench players. And they can't add many multi-year guys through the portal because they already have a big Class of 2024 coming in. That's why most of the portal contacts so far have been grad-transfer types. They have mortgaged their future on this one season and it completely wrecked them. It is going to take a few years to get back to having roster depth.

[CDu]

The problem for UNC is that they don't have anyone that could potentially develop in the future.

I disagree. Washington is a top-60 recruit. He could absolutely "potentially develop." Similar for High, who is a top-75 recruit. And Trimble, a top-40 recruit. And DeMarco Dunn was a top-75 recruit who will be a junior, so there is still development time for him.

They don't have a ton of guys who can develop. But they do still have some of those guys.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I disagree. Washington is a top-60 recruit. He could absolutely "potentially develop." Similar for High, who is a top-75 recruit. And Trimble, a top-40 recruit. And DeMarco Dunn was a top-75 recruit who will be a junior, so there is still development time for him.

They don't have a ton of guys who can develop. But they do still have some of those guys.

Obviously they have some guys left. But they have lost a ton of the potential guys that could develop. Washington has had Harry Giles-eque knee injuries and may never be a reliable player, unfortunately. One also wonder if the way that Hubert has been utilizing his bench if he either isn't focused on development or doesn't trust the bench guys, Dunn in particular, to be a contributor.

[Southgate0809]

I would say that losing 6 guys in the transfer portal (to date) is depleting. Kind of like a major league baseball team disbanding its minor league affiliates and saying we're just going to go with what we got, make trades, and sign free agents.

[CDu]

Obviously they have some guys left. But they have lost a ton of the potential guys that could develop. Washington has had Harry Giles-eque knee injuries and may never be a reliable player, unfortunately. One also wonder if the way that Hubert has been utilizing his bench if he either isn't focused on development or doesn't trust the bench guys, Dunn in particular, to be a contributor.

I don't think they have any fewer of those guys now than in previous years. In 2016, they had just 2 underclassmen in that developmental range (Kenny Williams and Luke Maye). In 2017, they had four (the previous two plus Woods and Robinson). In 2018 they had 5 (Woods, Robinson, Brooks, Manley, and Platek). In 2019 they had 4 (Brooks, Manley, Platek, and Black). In 2020 they had 3 (Black, Harris, Francis). In 2021 they had 3-4 (Davis technically fits by recruiting rank but he was a starter right away; then Walton, Harris, and Johnson). In 2022 they had 5 (Walton, Harris, Johnson, Styles, and Dunn). And this year they had 5 (Styles, Dunn, Trimble, Nickel, and Washington). Next year they'll have 4 (Trimble, Nickel, Washington, and High). Seems right in line with their norm.

What they don't have is a bunch of the junior and senior versions of those developmental guys (i.e., the end product). Only Davis (who arguably shouldn't have been included in the first place as he was a day-one starter for them). But that's a different issue, and that's addressable via the portal. But in terms of developmental options, they are right in line with their norm.

And it's not really fair to look at a guy who hasn't developed yet and compare him to guys who finished their careers. Nobody thought Luke Maye would become a two-time All-ACC player and preseason All-American after his freshman year. Or even as of ACCT time during his sophomore year, and arguably not even after his NCAAT highlights his sophomore year either. Nobody thought Brandon Robinson would become a double-digit scorer, even after his junior year, and certainly not after his freshman or sophomore years.

Guys in that range take longer to develop. They don't typically look like impact players as freshmen or even as sophomores. And some of them never do get there. But they often do develop with time.

[Southgate0809]

I don't think they have any fewer of those guys now than in previous years. In 2016, they had just 2 underclassmen in that developmental range (Kenny Williams and Luke Maye). In 2017, they had four (the previous two plus Woods and Robinson). In 2018 they had 5 (Woods, Robinson, Brooks, Manley, and Platek). In 2019 they had 4 (Brooks, Manley, Platek, and Black). In 2020 they had 3 (Black, Harris, Francis). In 2021 they had 3-4 (Davis technically fits by recruiting rank but he was a starter right away; then Walton, Harris, and Johnson). In 2022 they had 5 (Walton, Harris, Johnson, Styles, and Dunn). And this year they had 5 (Styles, Dunn, Trimble, Nickel, and Washington). Next year they'll have 4 (Trimble, Nickel, Washington, and High). Seems right in line with their norm.

What they don't have is a bunch of the junior and senior versions of those developmental guys (i.e., the end product). Only Davis (who arguably shouldn't have been included in the first place as he was a day-one starter for them). But that's a different issue, and that's addressable via the portal. But in terms of developmental options, they are right in line with their norm.

And it's not really fair to look at a guy who hasn't developed yet and compare him to guys who finished their careers. Nobody thought Luke Maye would become a two-time All-ACC player and preseason All-American after his freshman year. Or even as of ACCT time during his sophomore year, and arguably not even after his NCAAT highlights his sophomore year either. Nobody thought Brandon Robinson would become a double-digit scorer, even after his junior year, and certainly not after his freshman or sophomore years.

Guys in that range take longer to develop. They don't typically look like impact players as freshmen or even as sophomores. And some of them never do get there. But they often do develop with time.

Nickel is in the portal, so they won't have him next year unless he changes his mind. I think the difference between their current situation and all those other years you mentioned is that now, UNC has lost most of its bench to the transfer portal AND they only have 2 players returning that play meaningful minutes. In 2016, for example, they may have had just 2 guys they were waiting to develop, but they also had a bunch of other players that they could put on the floor (Brice Johnson, Berry, Justin Jackson, Paige, Hicks, Meeks, Britt, and Pinson). Right now, they literally have 2. That's a tough position to be in.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I don't think they have any fewer of those guys now than in previous years. In 2016, they had just 2 underclassmen in that developmental range (Kenny Williams and Luke Maye). In 2017, they had four (the previous two plus Woods and Robinson). In 2018 they had 5 (Woods, Robinson, Brooks, Manley, and Platek). In 2019 they had 4 (Brooks, Manley, Platek, and Black). In 2020 they had 3 (Black, Harris, Francis). In 2021 they had 3-4 (Davis technically fits by recruiting rank but he was a starter right away; then Walton, Harris, and Johnson). In 2022 they had 5 (Walton, Harris, Johnson, Styles, and Dunn). And this year they had 5 (Styles, Dunn, Trimble, Nickel, and Washington). Next year they'll have 4 (Trimble, Nickel, Washington, and High). Seems right in line with their norm.

What they don't have is a bunch of the junior and senior versions of those developmental guys (i.e., the end product). Only Davis (who arguably shouldn't have been included in the first place as he was a day-one starter for them). But that's a different issue, and that's addressable via the portal. But in terms of developmental options, they are right in line with their norm.

And it's not really fair to look at a guy who hasn't developed yet and compare him to guys who finished their careers. Nobody thought Luke Maye would become a two-time All-ACC player and preseason All-American after his freshman year. Or even as of ACCT time during his sophomore year, and arguably not even after his NCAAT highlights his sophomore year either. Nobody thought Brandon Robinson would become a double-digit scorer, even after his junior year, and certainly not after his freshman or sophomore years.

Guys in that range take longer to develop. They don't typically look like impact players as freshmen or even as sophomores. And some of them never do get there. But they often do develop with time.

The bolded is the point I am making. They have lost a ton of the guys that would become juniors and seniors, 5 of them plus Caleb Love. That's what is missing from their roster and they won't have many of them for a few years. In fact, just Dunn will be a bench junior next season and he's unlikely to play much of a role with their incoming freshmen and grad transfers.

[CameronDuke]

Anyone worried about Duke not having a center next year?

[FerryFor50]

Anyone worried about Duke not having a center next year?

No.

Sean Stewart and Mgbako are both coming in and could play the college 5 if needed.

Christian Reeves would likely stick around - especially if Flip and Lively leave.

Ryan Young is returning.

There are plenty of centers in the transfer portal.

[CDu]

The bolded is the point I am making. They have lost a ton of the guys that would become juniors and seniors, 5 of them plus Caleb Love. That's what is missing from their roster and they won't have many of them for a few years. In fact, just Dunn will be a bench junior next season and he's unlikely to play much of a role with their incoming freshmen and grad transfers.

They lost arguably one guy that would still be a developmental guy (Nickel). They lost 2 junior/senior guys (Styles and Johnson), meaning no longer developmental guys. McKoy was already a senior, so he wasn't a developmental loss. And Shaver wasn't a developmental guy anyway. He played 6 minutes in his two years on campus. Lumping McKoy and Shaver in there is highly misleading.

And like I said, they still have the same number of developmental types that they usually have. Trimble, Washington, and High. They are just missing out on the "finished product" developmental guys (namely Johnson, but possibly Styles). But that type of guy (the junior/senior/grad transfer type) is easily replaceable in the portal. What is harder to replace in the portal is the freshmen/sophomore developmental guys. But again, they still have those, and they only lost one of them in the portal anyway.

And again, we don't know what Dunn will be next year. We know what he was this year, but that doesn't mean that next year he won't make the jump. He might make the leap to starter and double-digit scorer. Or he might struggle to crack the rotation again. We just don't know. Similar story for Washington and Trimble. They could break out, or they could continue to be fringe rotation guys. Only time will tell.

[Southgate0809]

They lost arguably one guy that would still be a developmental guy (Nickel). They lost 2 junior/senior guys (Styles and Johnson), meaning no longer developmental guys. McKoy was already a senior, so he wasn't a developmental loss. And Shaver wasn't a developmental guy anyway. He played 6 minutes in his two years on campus. Lumping McKoy and Shaver in there is highly misleading.

And like I said, they still have the same number of developmental types that they usually have. Trimble, Washington, and High. They are just missing out on the "finished product" developmental guys (namely Johnson, but possibly Styles). But that type of guy (the junior/senior/grad transfer type) is easily replaceable in the portal. What is harder to replace in the portal is the freshmen/sophomore developmental guys. But again, they still have those, and they only lost one of them in the portal anyway.

And again, we don't know what Dunn will be next year. We know what he was this year, but that doesn't mean that next year he won't make the jump. He might make the leap to starter and double-digit scorer. Or he might struggle to crack the rotation again. We just don't know. Similar story for Washington and Trimble. They could break out, or they could continue to be fringe rotation guys. Only time will tell.

Let's simplify. Their roster has been gutted by the transfer portal. Can we agree on that?

[CameronDuke]

No.

Sean Stewart and Mgbako are both coming in and could play the college 5 if needed.

Christian Reeves would likely stick around - especially if Flip and Lively leave.

Ryan Young is returning.

There are plenty of centers in the transfer portal.

Mgbako is 6-8, 195 lbs, no?

[scottdude8]

Anyone worried about Duke not having a center next year?

No for me as well. Along with FerryFor50's reasons, here's another: I think Kyle can play the 5 in college. He may not be an elite athlete, but he showed decent rim-protection abilities this past year, and a real rebounding knack. I think he can guard most ACC centers, while having a center guarding him accentuates the mismatches he poses on the offensive end.

Now, based on various scuttlebutt it doesn't sound like this is Jon's plan going into next year if Kyle does return. But I see no reason why we wouldn't see more secondary lineups with Kyle at the 5 next season in this scenario.

[Southgate0809]

I think whatever we see happen over the next couple weeks will tell us about how Scheyer feels about that position next year. If we get a good transfer to play center, then you have that plus Reeves and Young (or just Young if Reeves were to decide to transfer). I'm good with that scenario, but really hope Reeves doesn't leave.

If we don't go after any big man transfer, that tells me that Scheyer thinks Reeves can hold it down next year. That would excite me, and I trust that he knows what Reeves is capable of. There would maybe be some growing pains just like there was for Lively this year. Maybe Young would start some games early on.

Another scenario would be that we get a mediocre big man in the portal. He and Reeves then split time or essentially compete for playing time.

I'm not super worried with any of those scenarios. They all assume that Lively is leaving. I agree that Filipowski is capable of filling in at the 5 at times, but I doubt that would be the plan because there would have been plenty of opportunities to do that this year if the coaching staff thought it was a good idea.

[dukelifer]

Anyone worried about Duke not having a center next year?

Stewart is a long bouncy 6' 9". He can play center.

[Southgate0809]

Stewart is a long bouncy 6' 9". He can play center.

that too

[Nugget]

Let's simplify. Their roster has been gutted by the transfer portal. Can we agree on that?

I'm more aligned with CDu on this -- other than Puff and maybe Styles, none of the other guys they are losing would really have been in line to play much next year or not been a cancer in the locker room (Love). I think we're dancing on UNC's grave much too soon.

[CDu]

Let's simplify. Their roster has been gutted by the transfer portal. Can we agree on that?

Sort of, yes, but probably not to the degree that “six guys in the portal!” might suggest.

They lost one key starter in Love, one definite rotation guy in Johnson, and two possible rotation guys in Styles and Nickel. McKoy and Shaver are a nothingburger.

Conversely, they appear to be already adding two possible rotation players from the portal. So the net portal loss so far is one key starter and either a rotation guy or a developmental guy depending on how good the arrivals are.

It depends on how good Wilcher will be (is he a Coby White or a Seventh Woods? Or something in between like RJ Davis?) as to the replacement of Love, but if they can add a clear-cut starter via the portal they will probably be a net even with the year’s squad. Which likely still be a positive outcome from our point of view.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Anyone worried about Duke not having a center next year?

If the best news happens - Filipowski returns - then no, not worried at all.

If Flip goes pro, there is the portal.

Until we hear otherwise, Young and Reeves are there.

Not a concern but could be a slight one until the portal season is over.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Sort of, yes, but probably not to the degree that “six guys in the portal!” might suggest.

They lost one key starter in Love, one definite rotation guy in Johnson, and two possible rotation guys in Styles and Nickel. McKoy and Shaver are a nothingburger.

Conversely, they appear to be already adding two possible rotation players from the portal. So the net portal loss so far is one key starter and either a rotation guy or a developmental guy depending on how good the arrivals are.

It depends on how good Wilcher will be (is he a Coby White or a Seventh Woods? Or something in between like RJ Davis?) as to the replacement of Love, but if they can add a clear-cut starter via the portal they will probably be a net even with the year’s squad. Which likely still be a positive outcome from our point of view.

Yes, a positive outcome from our point of view. It is also a multi-year problem for them and a bigger perceptual problem to potential recruits and transfers.