Who Stays and Who Goes?

[bshrader]

Makes sense. Maybe I'm applying the NBA "tampering" perspective to this despite it not being an apples to apples comparison.

Man, it would be nice if the NCAA were competent and the rules for this sort of thing were well established and clear... but that's never gonna happen.

After all, we are talking about the NCAA here.

[Southgate0809]

I'm guessing a good coach would help a player facilitate a transfer once a player tells his coach that they want to leave. I'm guessing that's how we got guys from Chris Collins and Wojo. There may be a period where the transferring player tells his coach his intentions and the coach helps him reach out to Duke to gauge interest before the player makes a public declaration of entering the transfer portal. I could also be completely wrong because I don't have a clue how that process actually works.

[CameronBornAndBred]

If Holmes comes we are preseason number 1 but I don't think we will get both him and Filip.

Ask Carolina about how much being preseason #1 is worth.

[kako]

Ask Carolina about how much being preseason #1 is worth.

I have always seen no value in being ranked #1 at any point in the season. Duke already has a big enough target on its back, one doesn't need it to be bigger. Polls don't get you a higher seed in the tourney. I'm fine with being in the top 10 conversation, as it just means you are definitely a title contender. But as Alabama and many other teams can confirm, being #1 doesn't actually help you hit more 3s, defend the pick and roll or stop a fast break. Or get you into the Final Four.

9F

[DavidBenAkiva]

If Holmes comes we are preseason number 1 but I don't think we will get both him and Filip.

I think anything like the following and Duke will be a heavy preseason favorite (top 2 or 3 team):


Filipowski and Mitchell return, Lively goes pro (most likely IMO)
Filipowski and Lively go pro, Mitchell returns, Holmes transfer to Duke (next most likely and maybe the most likely)
Filipowski, Lively, and Mitchell return (least or next-least likely IMO)
Filipowski and Mitchell return, Lively goes pro, Holmes transfers to Duke (least likely because Holmes is not in the portal yet and may go pro)

[dukelifer]

Ask Carolina about how much being preseason #1 is worth.

That is because there was no love lost between certain players- or maybe too much Love.

[Southgate0809]

I have always seen no value in being ranked #1 at any point in the season. Duke already has a big enough target on its back, one doesn't need it to be bigger. Polls don't get you a higher seed in the tourney. I'm fine with being in the top 10 conversation, as it just means you are definitely a title contender. But as Alabama and many other teams can confirm, being #1 doesn't actually help you hit more 3s, defend the pick and roll or stop a fast break. Or get you into the Final Four.

9F

Being #1 during pre-season or during the regular season, of course, is just a number. Things just feel right with the world, though, when Duke is on top. I'm tired of this Big 10 and SEC BS too. It doesn't help the argument when an unranked Duke and UNC are playing each other. UNC can stay unranked, and we'll take #1.

Speaking of ACC success - I managed to get a 16/1 bet in before the elite eight for Miami to win the title. If they beat UConn, then I'll have to make the awful decision of whether to make a hedge bet.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

For me at least, it depends on who reached out. If the player reached out to the potential destination program, I don't think that's a problem. If the program reached out to the kid, that's more of grey (dark grey, maybe) area, depending on circumstances. I think it's a little different where a program is between coaches and in limbo than if the head coach is in place and secure.

If the program reached out to the kid while they were still playing ... that's really gross.

It is a bit of an iterative issue. Though you can return to your old school after entering the portal, that is really not a good outcome as you have rocked the boat by saying you might leave. So before entering the portal publicly you want to know if there are any destinations you might be interested in that are also interested in you.

The only way to find that out is reaching out (or having someone reach out on your behalf). Therefore, players will often have to make contact with schools before they are publicly in the portal.

QED.

[BigZ]

If Holmes comes we are preseason number 1 but I don't think we will get both him and Filip.

Holmes and Mitchell would be enough to make us favorites. I'd rather have Holmes than Lively.

[gam7]

I'm guessing a good coach would help a player facilitate a transfer once a player tells his coach that they want to leave. I'm guessing that's how we got guys from Chris Collins and Wojo. There may be a period where the transferring player tells his coach his intentions and the coach helps him reach out to Duke to gauge interest before the player makes a public declaration of entering the transfer portal. I could also be completely wrong because I don't have a clue how that process actually works.

I think this is wayyyy off in terms of how it generally plays out. But, players transfer in all sorts of different circumstances. By all public accounts, Ryan Young and Theo were in good standing with Collins and Wojo, so it's possible they made a call to Duke for those guys.

[sagegrouse]

I think this is wayyyy off in terms of how it generally plays out. But, players transfer in all sorts of different circumstances. By all public accounts, Ryan Young and Theo were in good standing with Collins and Wojo, so it's possible they made a call to Duke for those guys.

I read that Jon called Chris, who said, basically, if he is not going to play at Northwestern, he might as well play for Duke.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Holmes and Mitchell would be enough to make us favorites. I'd rather have Holmes than Lively.

Strong disagree on Lively vs. Holmes. Lively is a defensive game-changer. I don't think Holmes is as defensively versatile, although he is much more productive on offense. A sophomore Lively would, I assume, but a much better offensive threat just like how Mark Williams became a much more well-rounded offensive player as a sophomore.

[gam7]

I read that Jon called Chris, who said, basically, if he is not going to play at Northwestern, he might as well play for Duke.

Ah, thanks. My guess is that that's more likely the way a Chris-Jon, Wojo-Jon dynamic would work -- a kid who used to play for a former Duke coach would express interest to Duke, and Jon would reach out to Chris/Wojo to make sure he's not stepping on their toes and that it's a good kid.

But the more common scenario in a transfer situation is that the coach of the departing player will do nothing to facilitate that player's leaving.

[JasonEvans]

I'd rather have Holmes than Lively.

No offense, but you are insane

Lively is a game-changing defender the likes of which do not come along often. I would expect him to be the best defensive player in the country if he returns to school. He can score zero points and still be a major factor in a team's victory. He takes entire sections of the floor out of consideration for an offense. Wherever he is, you can basically draw about a 12 foot circle and know the opposition is not going to attempt to get a shot in that area... and that circle moves as he does.

I believe that by the end of this year, he was as good a shot blocker as anyone who has worn a Duke uniform who did not have the number 23 on their back (not talking about Brian Davis or CWell). I shudder to think what another year of development will bring.

[cato]

Maybe. In terms of a possible championship run, Mitchell is the least important of the potential returners (I consider Whitehead and Lively gone).

Did you watch the Tennessee game? I’ve been thinking that Proctor was the most important player to return, but that is no knock on how vital Mitchell is to the team. Every great Duke team has had someone fill a role like he fills. Strong, focused, does everything on D, doesn’t step out of his capabilities on offense.

Losing Mitchell would be a severe blow to the team, but I can’t imagine that happening. He’s a Duke guy if I’ve ever seen one and he’s coming back — just giving his teammates their own moment to make their announcements.

[bshrader]

Did you watch the Tennessee game? I’ve been thinking that Proctor was the most important player to return, but that is no knock on how vital Mitchell is to the team. Every great Duke team has had someone fill a role like he fills. Strong, focused, does everything on D, doesn’t step out of his capabilities on offense.

Losing Mitchell would be a severe blow to the team, but I can’t imagine that happening. He’s a Duke guy if I’ve ever seen one and he’s coming back — just giving his teammates their own moment to make their announcements.

I share the sentiments of cato here. Mitchell returning would be such a huge lift for next year's team because of the versatility he offers, especially on the defensive end. Remember, it often takes incoming freshmen quite a while to adjust to the speed/physicality of the college game. Getting Mitchell back gives us someone who can effective guard the 2-4 (and even the 5 if a team is playing small).

[CameronBornAndBred]

Holmes and Mitchell would be enough to make us favorites. I'd rather have Holmes than Lively.

Strong disagree on Lively vs. Holmes. Lively is a defensive game-changer.

No offense, but you are insane

Lively is a game-changing defender the likes of which do not come along often. I would expect him to be the best defensive player in the country if he returns to school.

Pitching in my agreement here. Ain't no way I'm taking a guy who's never suited up for Duke over the Brotherhood guy that was just named to the Defensive All-ACC first team and All-ACC freshman team.

[chrishoke]

Pitching in my agreement here. Ain't no way I'm taking a guy who's never suited up for Duke over the Brotherhood guy that was just named to the Defensive All-ACC first team and All-ACC freshman team.

And is only going to get better and better.

[proelitedota]

I shudder to think what another year of development will bring.

Good thing that you don't have to shudder about this. Lively will be a lottery pick.

[KKDL19]

All this guessing... Duke will most likely pursue another big even if Flip and Mitchell both return unless they feel Reeves is ready. Duke nor Flip want him to be anchored in the post. The Duke staff will bring in players for a "win now" mindset with the roster they will/should have.

I do believe that there is some kind of X factor here with bringing in a portal player for the 5. The player would need to be either be good enough to be an instant starter or a reserve that will know that he competes with Young for minutes.

There has to be some thought about Reeves though. Duke is not looking to bring in a big in the 2024 class so ...