Who Stays and Who Goes?

[clinresga]

I contend that if he was playing against “ inferior competition “, he could have significantly improved over his Freshman year and his experience, strength and ability to drive may have been enough to get Duke to a FF. The perception of Keels would have changed and he could have perhaps made it to the first round. It is possible that Keels would not have been a better NBA player but not every first rounder has a long NBA career. Keels is still a young kid and it may all turn out great for him. I see why he left but the point is that he could have been a first rounder if everything broke his way in that sophomore year.

This makes no sense! We know how good Keels would have been after another year at Duke--at best, no better than he is now, but much more likely, significantly less improved than he is after having been after his year in G League.

As I keep reiterating, playing far less than half as much basketball while going to college could never have led to more improvement than we see after a year in G--and he is clearly not a first round pick--he's fighting to even get anything more than a 10 day contract. It's not speculation, it's proof of his ceiling, at least as of now. No way another year at Duke would have made him a first round pick. That's just wistful thinking.

[Matches]

This makes no sense! We know how good Keels would have been after another year at Duke--at best, no better than he is now, but much more likely, significantly less improved than he is after having been after his year in G League.
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I tend to agree that most players develop better playing full-time, against superior competition etc than they do by remaining in college. I do think it’s fair to temper that, though, with the understanding that everyone is different and quirky and we can never know conclusively where the road not taken would have led.

I don’t think Keels in any way made a “dumb” decision or mistake or whatever it was called upthread. I just don’t think it’s useful to speculate in either direction about how his soph year at Duke would have gone - there are just too many unknowables.

[azzefkram]

This makes no sense! We know how good Keels would have been after another year at Duke--at best, no better than he is now, but much more likely, significantly less improved than he is after having been after his year in G League.

As I keep reiterating, playing far less than half as much basketball while going to college could never have led to more improvement than we see after a year in G--and he is clearly not a first round pick--he's fighting to even get anything more than a 10 day contract. It's not speculation, it's proof of his ceiling, at least as of now. No way another year at Duke would have made him a first round pick. That's just wistful thinking.

We don't know anything with respect to how Trevor would have been after another year at Duke. Right now, Trevor is getting G-League coaching and training. Is that better than the coaching and training he would get at Duke? NBA coaching and training. no doubt. G-League? I honestly don't know. The top of the Knicks org chart is... suspect. While he won't have his time divided by school work (much like unc players), there is no guarantee all or any of that time will be devoted to basketball. Trevor is a young man with a bit of coin in his pocket and possibly not a ton of supervision.

Do I think Trevor made a mistake by leaving last year? No. He was following his dream. Would he have been better staying at Duke for another year? I don't think anyone knows. I'm not sure anyone thought Wendell Moore was a first round pick heading into his junior year.

[FerryFor50]

We don't know anything with respect to how Trevor would have been after another year at Duke. Right now, Trevor is getting G-League coaching and training. Is that better than the coaching and training he would get at Duke? NBA coaching and training. no doubt. G-League? I honestly don't know. The top of the Knicks org chart is... suspect. While he won't have his time divided by school work (much like unc players), there is no guarantee all or any of that time will be devoted to basketball. Trevor is a young man with a bit of coin in his pocket and possibly not a ton of supervision.

Do I think Trevor made a mistake by leaving last year? No. He was following his dream. Would he have been better staying at Duke for another year? I don't think anyone knows. I'm not sure anyone thought Wendell Moore was a first round pick heading into his junior year.

Keels is doing fairly well in the G League, shooting 36% on his threes, which, not coincidentally, is what he needed to get better at to make the NBA.

While I wish he had stayed, I don't think he should have stayed if making the NBA was his goal.

[Southgate0809]

Keels is doing fairly well in the G League, shooting 36% on his threes, which, not coincidentally, is what he needed to get better at to make the NBA.

While I wish he had stayed, I don't think he should have stayed if making the NBA was his goal.

That's a good way to put it. If going to Duke is purely a business decision for these guys, then it's hard to argue against any of them going to the G league or the NBA. Most of them seem to say, though, that they love being at Duke. Every single ranked recruit we get has a goal to play in the NBA. The better question is if that's you're goal and you also love being in school, how much are you losing to come back to school, and how much are you losing to declare for the draft? Do you really love being a student athlete, and have you fully processed the fact that once you leave, you never get to have that experience again? Is making the most amount of money right now you're biggest priority? Is it less about the money and moreso about achieving your dream? If so, will waiting 1 more year be worth it to prolong this great experience, then reach your dream?

[FastBreak]

This makes no sense! We know how good Keels would have been after another year at Duke--at best, no better than he is now, but much more likely, significantly less improved than he is after having been after his year in G League.

As I keep reiterating, playing far less than half as much basketball while going to college could never have led to more improvement than we see after a year in G--and he is clearly not a first round pick--he's fighting to even get anything more than a 10 day contract. It's not speculation, it's proof of his ceiling, at least as of now. No way another year at Duke would have made him a first round pick. That's just wistful thinking.

Strongly disagree. This falls into the tendency of thinking of these kids as machines and not actually kids. Trevor Keels was 18 years old. Sure at Duke he would have to take classes, but for an 18 year, the emotional and relationship support of college is enormous. The camaraderie of a team and feeling they have your back gives a huge amount of well-being that gives the energy to keep it going. The G-League has got to be a much more lonely experience. Imagine players on the team are all in it to showcase their skills versus winning for the team? You really think players are helping each other in that environment?

And then the assumption that these guys are playing basketball all day long. No - there is only so much physical activity they can do in a day. 4 hours? 5 hours a day of physical exertion? What do you do the rest of the day? Again, if you are 18 years old and on the Grand Rapids G-League team, what are you doing? Versus being at Duke and being on campus with friends you will have for life.

And oh, I would take Jon Scheyer and his coach over any G-League coaching staff...

[lotusland]

I suspect the level of training and development a player gets in the G league varies from player to player. The Nicks invested a second round pick in Keels so perhaps that’s enough to make sure he’s coming along. I wonder if undrafted guys can count on the same level of commitment from G league teams. Between Lance, Quinn and Seth, 4-year Duke guys have had some success beating the odds. Maybe the time, training and maturity gained helps you get better prepared to handle the tough road. I’d be interested to hear from those guys and other former Dukies how they feel about staying vs leaving in hindsight.

[FerryFor50]

That's a good way to put it. If going to Duke is purely a business decision for these guys, then it's hard to argue against any of them going to the G league or the NBA. Most of them seem to say, though, that they love being at Duke. Every single ranked recruit we get has a goal to play in the NBA. The better question is if that's you're goal and you also love being in school, how much are you losing to come back to school, and how much are you losing to declare for the draft? Do you really love being a student athlete, and have you fully processed the fact that once you leave, you never get to have that experience again? Is making the most amount of money right now you're biggest priority? Is it less about the money and moreso about achieving your dream? If so, will waiting 1 more year be worth it to prolong this great experience, then reach your dream?

What they lose in leaving school? A few years of college living. That's it. It's fun, but they also get to have fun not being in college and worrying about academics if they're more interested in pro ball. And if they really care about the academics, nothing is stopping them from coming back to finish their degree.

There's also the specter of potential injury when coming back to play unpaid/less paid ball. NIL will definitely change the game for some players, but it's usually not enough to outweigh that potential career ender. Guys like Zion and Kyrie had injury scares in their one year. If I were a fringe first rounder, I'd be terrified of that.

I don't begrudge anyone who puts their best interests in mind. I think a lot of people have trouble separating what they want out of the team they love and what is best for the players.

[sagegrouse]

Strongly disagree. This falls into the tendency of thinking of these kids as machines and not actually kids. Trevor Keels was 18 years old. Sure at Duke he would have to take classes, but for an 18 year, the emotional and relationship support of college is enormous. The camaraderie of a team and feeling they have your back gives a huge amount of well-being that gives the energy to keep it going. The G-League has got to be a much more lonely experience. Imagine players on the team are all in it to showcase their skills versus winning for the team? You really think players are helping each other in that environment?

And then the assumption that these guys are playing basketball all day long. No - there is only so much physical activity they can do in a day. 4 hours? 5 hours a day of physical exertion? What do you do the rest of the day? Again, if you are 18 years old and on the Grand Rapids G-League team, what are you doing? Versus being at Duke and being on campus with friends you will have for life.

And oh, I would take Jon Scheyer and his coach over any G-League coaching staff...

I agree strongly with Fast Break. Plenty of Duke players who didn't make it in the NBA put up fabulous numbers in the G League -- far, far better than at Duke. E.g., Amile and Vernon Carey.

And I believe there is some benefit to being surrounded by good teammates and a strong professional staff of coaches and other personnel. And being in the student body on a cosmopolitan campus is likely a far better personal environment than offered by, say, the Rio Grande Vipers.


Kindly,
Sage
'And I have been to the Rio Grande Valley many, many times'

[CameronBornAndBred]

Does Greg Paulus have a Covid year of eligibility?

Only for football, and I don't see him beating Riley Leonard out at QB.

[Southgate0809]

What they lose in leaving school? A few years of college living. That's it. It's fun, but they also get to have fun not being in college and worrying about academics if they're more interested in pro ball. And if they really care about the academics, nothing is stopping them from coming back to finish their degree.

There's also the specter of potential injury when coming back to play unpaid/less paid ball. NIL will definitely change the game for some players, but it's usually not enough to outweigh that potential career ender. Guys like Zion and Kyrie had injury scares in their one year. If I were a fringe first rounder, I'd be terrified of that.

I don't begrudge anyone who puts their best interests in mind. I think a lot of people have trouble separating what they want out of the team they love and what is best for the players.

The idea that they don't really lose anything by leaving school is one that I have a really hard time with. I know how important it was for me to have those years in college and grow up. Coming back to take classes later isn't the same thing. I think having those college years is an important part of development for most young people. Those who join the military get a very different type of development as young adults, but a similar experience in the sense that you are living in a barracks with other young people as a trainee and a young enlisted person. I'm not saying any of that should outweigh making millions or achieving your dream, but I do hope there's someone advising players to consider that aspect when making their decisions. Being 19 and in the NBA with some sort of handler assigned to you to make sure you don't make bad financial decisions is not how someone grows up and rounds themself out into a mature adult. I don't remember where it is, but I remember an article written about Okafor when he was with the 76ers. They described him sitting in his apartment with his personal assistant there. It sounded like the assistant's job was to babysit him, and it seemed like Okafor was unprepared for adult life. For plenty, that rocky transition might be worth it, but I think it's unfair to say you're just missing out on a little bit of fun by leaving college.

[lotusland]

Former Duke players who didn’t make it in the league have held a lot of high level positions in college and the pros. We haven’t seen the same success from the OAD players who didn’t make it.

[sagegrouse]

Strongly disagree. This falls into the tendency of thinking of these kids as machines and not actually kids. Trevor Keels was 18 years old. Sure at Duke he would have to take classes, but for an 18 year, the emotional and relationship support of college is enormous. The camaraderie of a team and feeling they have your back gives a huge amount of well-being that gives the energy to keep it going. The G-League has got to be a much more lonely experience. Imagine players on the team are all in it to showcase their skills versus winning for the team? You really think players are helping each other in that environment?

And then the assumption that these guys are playing basketball all day long. No - there is only so much physical activity they can do in a day. 4 hours? 5 hours a day of physical exertion? What do you do the rest of the day? Again, if you are 18 years old and on the Grand Rapids G-League team, what are you doing? Versus being at Duke and being on campus with friends you will have for life.

And oh, I would take Jon Scheyer and his coach over any G-League coaching staff...

I agree strongly with Fast Break. Plenty of Duke players who didn't make it in the NBA put up fabulous numbers in the G League -- far, far better than at Duke. E.g., Amile and Vernon Carey.

And I believe there is some benefit to being surrounded by good teammates and a strong professional staff of coaches and other personnel. And being in the student body on a cosmopolitan campus is likely a far better personal environment than offered by, say, the Rio Grande Vipers.


Kindly,
Sage
'And I like the Rio Grande Valley'

[DavidBenAkiva]

Former Duke players who didn’t make it in the league have held a lot of high level positions in college and the pros. We haven’t seen the same success from the OAD players who didn’t make it.

Duke hasn't had a lot of OAD players wash out or retire yet. Most of them are still in the NBA.

Luol Deng, for what it is worth, has built a very successful post-NBA career in real estate and with NBA Africa.

[lotusland]

Duke hasn't had a lot of OAD players wash out or retire yet. Most of them are still in the NBA.

Luol Deng, for what it is worth, has built a very successful post-NBA career in real estate and with NBA Africa.

Yeah that’s why I said OAD’s who didn’t make it in the league. Having a successful NBA career alone gives you a leg up on success outside the NBA. Also Deng would probably be financially set even if he never worked again. No one should suggest that Deng needed another year at Duke.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Former Duke players who didn’t make it in the league have held a lot of high level positions in college and the pros. We haven’t seen the same success from the OAD players who didn’t make it.

You mean to tell me that there may be some value in having a degree?

Although, to be fair, I'm not sure there has been enough time to make that statement yet.

I'm sticking to obvious choice one-and-dones here, not the "what were you thinking" guys.
Jabari Parker might be a good example. Drafted less than 10 years ago, he last "played" in the league in '21. Not sure what he's doing now, but that's only 2 years ago and he's likely got a very nicely sized bank account.

Jabari's follow up OAD, Okafor, last played in the league in '21. Since then he's visited China, and is now in the G-League.
Again, a guy likely with a sizeable bank account, and obviously not quite ready to unlace his shoes.

Everyone after those two (and before when you look at Irving, who kicked it all off in this true OAD era) is still playing in the NBA. They might not be starting, but they are getting paid.

I know you specified the "OAD players who didn't make it", but for those folks I'm sticking with my statement that a degree means something in life. Even if you only want to be involved in basketball off the court, most people care that you have some paperwork showing that you have a command of the business. Those guys likely decided that school wasn't for them, and so they made those questionable choices to kick start their pro careers, and the consequences bit them in their butts. Hopefully if they are no longer playing they are working on their educations so they can move up.

[FastBreak]

Former Duke players who didn’t make it in the league have held a lot of high level positions in college and the pros. We haven’t seen the same success from the OAD players who didn’t make it.

This wasn't even my point - I believe strongly that college is a MUCH better training ground for an 18-21 year old than the G-League is. The abyss of loneliness and grind of professional playing will take the joy out of the process, and with it the mental strength that's needed to keep going in any professional sport. Read the story of Justice Winslow and his experience in Miami to get a sense.

Some have been doing the rough math of a minimum NBA 2 way contract is still more than an NIL deal and therefore justifies these kids taking a shot. What's not discussed is how maturing for another year into a responsible adult with coaches and teammates that truly care for you sets you up mentally and emotionally for greater success. Not that there aren't exceptions of course, but this element is lost in the discussion I think.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Yeah that’s why I said OAD’s who didn’t make it in the league. Having a successful NBA career alone gives you a leg up on success outside the NBA. Also Deng would probably be financially set even if he never worked again. No one should suggest that Deng needed another year at Duke.

How many OADs has Duke had that are even out of their basketball playing years? Corey Maggette and Deng had successful NBA careers. It's like you are dog piling on Jahlil Okafor. Most of the other OADs at Duke are either still playing or trying to get back to the NBA through the G-League. Kyrie Irving and Austin Rivers were the first true OADs that Duke had and both are still on NBA rosters.

[sagegrouse]

How many OADs has Duke had that are even out of their basketball playing years? Corey Maggette and Deng had successful NBA careers. It's like you are dog piling on Jahlil Okafor. Most of the other OADs at Duke are either still playing or trying to get back to the NBA through the G-League. Kyrie Irving and Austin Rivers were the first true OADs that Duke had and both are still on NBA rosters.

Just teasing, but please don't drop in a new term like "true OADS" without explaining what you mean. We have enough arguments here, as it is.

[clinresga]

This wasn't even my point - I believe strongly that college is a MUCH better training ground for an 18-21 year old than the G-League is. The abyss of loneliness and grind of professional playing will take the joy out of the process, and with it the mental strength that's needed to keep going in any professional sport. Read the story of Justice Winslow and his experience in Miami to get a sense.

Some have been doing the rough math of a minimum NBA 2 way contract is still more than an NIL deal and therefore justifies these kids taking a shot. What's not discussed is how maturing for another year into a responsible adult with coaches and teammates that truly care for you sets you up mentally and emotionally for greater success. Not that there aren't exceptions of course, but this element is lost in the discussion I think.

There are a lot of assumptions here that are at best unsupported. I am sure that there are some players, at some times in their G League career, who experienced loneliness and joylessness. But our oft-inflated memories of our times at Duke may have us seeing the Duke experience through rose colored glasses.

I think there's a whiff of paternalism here--"Oh gosh, if Trevor had only been smart enough to see how much better his life would have been with one more year at Duke." Um, he spent a year at Duke, with those "coaches and teammates that truly care[d] for him." None of us have a greater insight into what that is like than a guy who actually did it. None of us can possibly have a better perspective on that choice than Trevor did.

I am sure he was grateful and enjoyed Duke. And I am also equally sure that as an intelligent young man with drive and aspirations, that he went into the draft full well knowing what it would be like to play, in the NBA and the G League. And he decided that his future was better served by moving onto the pros, rather than spending another year at the Duke Nirvana. I totally respect that, and think that anyone who calls him "dumb" (the OP) is condescending and letting his/her Duke fandom place Trevor's benefit to the Duke team over Trevor's own best interests.