Who Stays and Who Goes?

[lotusland]

I found this tweet interesting, which backs up the case folks are making about not needing an elite big man in March.

https://twitter.com/KyleTucker_ATH/s...385378819?s=20

Zach Edey - out first round
Armando Bacot - didn't make NCAAs
Oscar Tshiebwe - out second round
Hunter Dickinson - NIT
Trayce Jackson-Davis - out second round

All of them first, second, or third team preseason all americans.

They didn’t lose because they had a traditional big man. They lost because they didn’t have better players around those big men. As another poster said, it’s not great to have a traditional big as your first option on offense.

[tommy]

Houston, Uconn, Texas, Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, MSU, and Miami all have starting centers 6'9 or shorter. If Sean Stewart can play in the post, he should be fine as a 5 in college.

We had Uconn 2011, Villanova 2018, UVA 2019 all win titles with centers 6'9 in height.

A center in college needs to rebound, defend, and score in that order. TBH, Lively was only ok in rebounding for the year.

I think we'll be more than fine with a rotation of Sean, Ryan Young, and Christian Reeves. People forget that 2007-2009, 2014, 2017 and to some extent 2019 were all years we had less depth and/or talent at the 5.

Florida Atlantic's center is 7'1". Putting that aside, though, the counter to your point is that the centers for all of those teams are juniors or seniors. They're older, they're more experienced, their bodies are more developed, etc. That, IMO, is more important in many respects -- and not just at the center position -- than height.

Actually the one on your list who is not at least a junior is Miami's Norchad Omier. But Omier is a third year player after having transferred to Miami after two years at Arkansas State. He has 86 games of experience under his belt . . . and it shows.

[uh_no]

They didn’t lose because they had a traditional big man. They lost because they didn’t have better players around those big men. As another poster said, it’s not great to have a traditional big as your first option on offense.

Bingo. That logic was not sound.

"Team A has a big man and fails, therefore having a big man is not valuable in general." Does not follow.

The zion team showed if your only game is in the paint, then you can get packed in. Gotta have guards. Having SOME value in the paint makes a team complete. Where is Uconn without Sanogo, for instance? And this despite having 4 guys shooting 35+% from 3 (not including sanogo himself).

[proelitedota]

Florida Atlantic's center is 7'1". Putting that aside, though, the counter to your point is that the centers for all of those teams are juniors or seniors. They're older, they're more experienced, their bodies are more developed, etc. That, IMO, is more important in many respects -- and not just at the center position -- than height.

Actually the one on your list who is not at least a junior is Miami's Norchad Omier. But Omier is a third year player after having transferred to Miami after two years at Arkansas State. He has 86 games of experience under his belt . . . and it shows.

Well by your reasoning we should be more than fine with Ryan Young then.

I do think another summer of conditioning should improve his foot speed, maybe his vertical too.

With 3 options, I figured at least one will be at least net neutral on a given night.

[kmspeaks]

It seems like we (the DBR board contributors) go through this exercise every year (or, at least, since Duke went in on OAD big time), trying to guess who might stay for an additional year and, like Lucy snatching the football away from Charlie Brown, we always seem to end up being disappointed by the number of players that jump ship to the NBA or the G-League or wherever. I don't know any of these players personally but my impression is that they view "Duke" as just a one-year stepping stone to their ultimate goal and have almost zero interest in being a "Duke student". And I think that is a shame. I don't know if some of these people (those almost guaranteed to be a first-round draft pick) are even bothering showing up or taking any classes for the rest of this semester of if they have already moved on with their lives? My guess is that Whitehead, Proctor, Flip, Lively will all be gone and probably Mitchell and Roach too. Time to start anew next season.

Isn't every student using Duke as a stepping stone to get to their ultimate goal? I don't know many lifelong college students, but for some reason I'm supposed to look down on the guys who only needed one year to go on to be in the top 1% of their field versus staying for four?

We, meaning society, need to stop romanticizing the four-year college experience as if it's some magical portal that contains the only pathway to success and fulfillment.

[MarkD83]

It seems like we (the DBR board contributors) go through this exercise every year (or, at least, since Duke went in on OAD big time), trying to guess who might stay for an additional year and, like Lucy snatching the football away from Charlie Brown, we always seem to end up being disappointed by the number of players that jump ship to the NBA or the G-League or wherever. I don't know any of these players personally but my impression is that they view "Duke" as just a one-year stepping stone to their ultimate goal and have almost zero interest in being a "Duke student". And I think that is a shame. I don't know if some of these people (those almost guaranteed to be a first-round draft pick) are even bothering showing up or taking any classes for the rest of this semester of if they have already moved on with their lives? My guess is that Whitehead, Proctor, Flip, Lively will all be gone and probably Mitchell and Roach too. Time to start anew next season.

I know that "kmspeaks" also responded to this and I did want to add another point or two.

I think it is OK to express our feelings about who stays or goes and yes we do seem to have the same conversation each year.

However, I disagree with the sentiment in bold. We do not know what the players' views are on being Duke students and probably should not presume anything. The new point of view I will give is that the statement in bold may also suggest that the Duke administration and Duke coaching staff are not paying attention. This is NOT unc (a little dig here). Part of Duke's appeal is if you are vested you will get a great education even if it is just for 1 year or 2 years. In addition, if you are not interested there are plenty of folks in the administration and the coaching staff that will lecture you about commitment which includes academic commitment.

[proelitedota]

If I was Scheyer this is what I personally would tell the players.

Derek: Go
Dariq: Go
Mark: Test the waters. If you're getting good signals go. Otherwise, come back.
Tyrese: Test the waters. If you're getting good signals go. Otherwise, come back.
Jeremy: Test the waters. If you're getting good signals go. If not, wait to see what Tyrese does. If he is also coming back, do what's in your interest. Otherwise, come back.
Flip: Go if you're first round. Otherwise, come back. NIL money + zero competition at the 5.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I found this tweet interesting, which backs up the case folks are making about not needing an elite big man in March.

https://twitter.com/KyleTucker_ATH/s...385378819?s=20

Zach Edey - out first round
Armando Bacot - didn't make NCAAs
Oscar Tshiebwe - out second round
Hunter Dickinson - NIT
Trayce Jackson-Davis - out second round

All of them first, second, or third team preseason all americans.

A lot of those guys were post-season All-Americans, too, even the one whose team couldn't finish the regular season in the top 6 of their ho-hum conference.

[trinity79]

A lot of those guys were post-season All-Americans, too, even the one whose team couldn't finish the regular season in the top 6 of their ho-hum conference.

How can you slander Hunter Dickinson that way?

[dlmzzz]

Well by your reasoning we should be more than fine with Ryan Young then.

I do think another summer of conditioning should improve his foot speed, maybe his vertical too.

With 3 options, I figured at least one will be at least net neutral on a given night.

Honestly, I don't know why more people aren't thinking this way.

I assume, maybe wrongly, that Duke's program for improving conditioning, strength, and agility is better than at other schools. I know that Junior Wendell was physically completely different than Sophomore Wendell, in ways that both helped his game and helped his NBA combine scores. If Ryan Young improves physically to a similar extent, what would that look like in terms of player improvement? By KenPom stats, he's already rating as one of the 20 best players in the country for offensive rating, one of the top 15 players in the country in offensive rebounding, and one of the top 25 players at 2 point percentage. His defense improved throughout the year. If he has a jump from one year to the next, that's not just a serviceable player, but a pretty good one.

Didn't someone point out earlier in this thread that one of the key things you see throughout the teams that are still in the tourney is players that are older and have experience?

Similarly, one of the things that you hear constantly in the forums is the desire for more multi-year players. I think reality is that the only way Duke is going to have multi-year experience is to have a number of players who only have an OK year, then come back and have a pretty good one. If you have a pretty good year to start with, then we're going to be asking if they are coming back at all. I don't remember anyone asking if Sophomore Wendell was going pro.


tl, dr;
Multi-year players at Duke doesn't mean "Flip came back!". It means "Ryan Young came back and got a lot better."

[SkyBrickey]

If I was Scheyer this is what I personally would tell the players.

Derek: Go
Dariq: Go
Mark: Test the waters. If you're getting good signals go. Otherwise, come back.
Tyrese: Test the waters. If you're getting good signals go. Otherwise, come back.
Jeremy: Test the waters. If you're getting good signals go. If not, wait to see what Tyrese does. If he is also coming back, do what's in your interest. Otherwise, come back.
Flip: Go if you're first round. Otherwise, come back. NIL money + zero competition at the 5.

Yes but what are good signals?

My hope is that Rachel Baker has helped line up NIL deals for these guys that makes a second year at Duke more attractive than leaving as a second round pick. I truly believe the three freshmen in question could play themselves into higher picks next year by coming back and improving one or two areas. The NIL deal at Duke just needs to tip the scale in our favor. ( For Flip moving from late first round to maybe lottery )

The Jeremy situation is a bit different. Other than an unexpected surge in his 3 pt shooting, I think it’s unlikely he can improve his draft stock. But a 4th year captain at Duke with all the exposure and accolades alongside an NIL deal would seem to beat a season in the G League. But that’s a personal decision for him….

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Well by your reasoning we should be more than fine with Ryan Young then.

I do think another summer of conditioning should improve his foot speed, maybe his vertical too.

With 3 options, I figured at least one will be at least net neutral on a given night.

Duke’s training program is likely better than Northwestern’s. But I’m sure Northwestern’s is still very good. So I think the odds of him making a huge jump in terms of speed, vertical, etc are small. Maybe some marginal improvement, but I would count in much more.

[uh_no]

Duke’s training program is likely better than Northwestern’s. But I’m sure Northwestern’s is still very good. So I think the odds of him making a huge jump in terms of speed, vertical, etc are small. Maybe some marginal improvement, but I would count in much more.

I suspect almost every major D1 program has an exceptionally high quality conditioning program. It's not like training is some secret...the bigger issue is how long it takes for programs to adapt to new META, and even on that front, sometimes Duke was behind the times (for instance, they used static stretching pre-game long past when there was research showing decreased muscle performance, and dynamic stretching far more effective).

I suspect focusing on conditioning (over, say, spending time on skills), and the attitude of ensuring people stick to the program is far more impactful than any differences in the program itself. Conditioning is like the one place where almost any school should be able to match the top guns.

[cato]

Duke’s training program is likely better than Northwestern’s. But I’m sure Northwestern’s is still very good. So I think the odds of him making a huge jump in terms of speed, vertical, etc are small. Maybe some marginal improvement, but I would count in much more.

Also, training programs have to work with what the player has going for himself. Wendell was a plus athlete who improved on his strengths. I would expect that Young can get stronger, but not sure he is going to improve his lateral quickness or vertical. He is a below the rim guy.

[BigZ]

They didn’t lose because they had a traditional big man. They lost because they didn’t have better players around those big men. As another poster said, it’s not great to have a traditional big as your first option on offense.

This isn’t pro sports it’s not like teams can trade a big for a guard they can just add to what they already have. So having a big has no impact on if a team has good guards

[SouthernDukie]

Also, training programs have to work with what the player has going for himself. Wendell was a plus athlete who improved on his strengths. I would expect that Young can get stronger, but not sure he is going to improve his lateral quickness or vertical. He is a below the rim guy.

You’ve apparently never heard of flubber.

[rsvman]

You’ve apparently never heard of flubber.

It's not flubber, but there is a guy on Youtube (Isaiah Rivera) who recently reached a 50-inch max vertical (!), and he has a training program that he says can increase verticals significantly. Maybe Ryan should look into it.

[BigZ]

Shane Battier is clearly the best defender in Duke history but Lively is second in my opinion. Shelden was great on defending his guy but he couldn't switch like Lively and guard other positions.

[jv001]

Shane Battier is clearly the best defender in Duke history but Lively is second in my opinion. Shelden was great on defending his guy but he couldn't switch like Lively and guard other positions.

Don't forget Billy King.

GoDuke!

[dukebluesincebirth]

Don't forget Billy King.

GoDuke!

Or Tommy Amaker!