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  1. #381
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    The fact that some scout wants him in the nba is interesting, but doesn't prove anything.

    Dereck will go if Dereck decides to go, not simply because somebody wants him to go. Ultimately, it is not the nba scout's decision. And yes, I am aware that these types of people can be very persuasive. But the ultimate authority on what Dereck does is himself.

    Yes, I think he will go. But I don't think it is 100%, and I owe it to everybody to let them have their autonomy.
    Hollinger is a bit more than "some scout." No one is saying Dereck should or will do anything, so I am not sure how anyone is impacting Dereck's autonomy. I, for one, can be happy for Dereck if he decides to go pro, and sad for myself as a Duke fan.

  2. #382
    These are the things the NBA covet: exceptional size and length, exceptional rim protection, exceptional lateral quickness, exceptional 3 point shooting (with elevation and quick release), exceptional athleticism.

    If you have these qualities, even if just one or two of them, then you are going to be wanted by the NBA, even if other aspects are deficient. Lively and Whitehead fits. The other freshmen don't, they are decent at some of these, but no one who's exceptional at any of these skills.

  3. #383
    It seems like we (the DBR board contributors) go through this exercise every year (or, at least, since Duke went in on OAD big time), trying to guess who might stay for an additional year and, like Lucy snatching the football away from Charlie Brown, we always seem to end up being disappointed by the number of players that jump ship to the NBA or the G-League or wherever. I don't know any of these players personally but my impression is that they view "Duke" as just a one-year stepping stone to their ultimate goal and have almost zero interest in being a "Duke student". And I think that is a shame. I don't know if some of these people (those almost guaranteed to be a first-round draft pick) are even bothering showing up or taking any classes for the rest of this semester of if they have already moved on with their lives? My guess is that Whitehead, Proctor, Flip, Lively will all be gone and probably Mitchell and Roach too. Time to start anew next season.

  4. #384
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kfanarmy View Post
    I get it, but the team is five, so I figured you must be making a comment about guarding/defense...
    He or she was making a comment that the 3 of them would fill the center position in some fashion or another, and that this trio would potentially fill the position adequately. I don't think any specific statement was made about defense there.

    As to your question, Stewart is purported to be a good defender, and definitely has the athleticism and shotblocking ability. Young is a more offensive-minded player and a stout rebounder. Reeves is the biggest question mark, but he's 7'1" and has decent athleticism so it's possible he makes a jump with the added year of physical development.

    So I think the statement that the trio might be effective is a reasonable statement. Not a guarantee of course: we know Young's physical limitations and neither Reeves nor Stewart are proven at all. But "may be" allows for the possibility of "not."

  5. #385
    Quote Originally Posted by Kfanarmy View Post
    Trying to follow this reference to Cerberus. You think those three players will make Duke's defense effective or be able to defend the paint? why?
    Well, I don't think Young is a good defender as a starter but in shorter stints he can be effective. His basketball IQ seems high, he is a very good rebounder, and effort will never be an issue. Reeves has looked fairly athletic and Stewart's reputation leads me to think he will be athletic. I think Duke's D will really miss Dereck if he decides to go, but I can see Reeves and Stewart covering a bit of what Dereck brought to the table.

  6. #386
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    Feb 2007
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    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    I still do not follow your logic. Filipowski being a more credible threat from outside would only help him and his teammates. That is sort of the whole idea behind "pace and space" that is all the rage in the NBA and some corners of the college basketball world. Having a big man that can draw big defenders out form the rim opens up the lane, making it easier for everyone to get high-quality shots at the rim. Filipowski becoming a consistent 38%+ 3-point shooter isn't redundancy. It's a key to unlocking a higher degree of efficiency for the entire offense.
    My wish list for Ryan Young this off season is to add a 3 point shot to his arsenal. Not to be a high volume threat, but just a "keep the defense honest" shot when he has the ball at the top of the key and his defender sags off him. He actually hoisted 21 threes as a freshman at NW (hitting only 3 of them) before effectively eliminating them from his game, but he shot a career best 81% from the FT line this year so you could argue he has shown the ability to improve shooting stroke over time (though to be fair you could ague this year was an outlier FT % and if he hasn't developed 3 point range in 5 years of college why would he start now?)

  7. #387
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kfanarmy View Post
    I don't think Hollinger has ever been an NBA Scout...the tweet says "the NBA Scout in me..." Hollinger is a sportswriter who developed some advanced metrics for comparing Basketball player performance, and he did a stint as a VP of Basketball Operations for the Grizzlies (it is unclear what he actually did). So this is like a any other sportswriter making a comment, nothing more.
    As you note, Hollinger did "a stint" (actually 7 years, so more than just "a stint") as the VP of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies. So I think he has juuuuuuust a wee bit more than just "sportswriter" cred when talking about this. He knows way more about what NBA execs are looking for than just your typical sportswriter.

  8. #388
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    It seems like we (the DBR board contributors) go through this exercise every year (or, at least, since Duke went in on OAD big time), trying to guess who might stay for an additional year and, like Lucy snatching the football away from Charlie Brown, we always seem to end up being disappointed by the number of players that jump ship to the NBA or the G-League or wherever. I don't know any of these players personally but my impression is that they view "Duke" as just a one-year stepping stone to their ultimate goal and have almost zero interest in being a "Duke student". And I think that is a shame. I don't know if some of these people (those almost guaranteed to be a first-round draft pick) are even bothering showing up or taking any classes for the rest of this semester of if they have already moved on with their lives? My guess is that Whitehead, Proctor, Flip, Lively will all be gone and probably Mitchell and Roach too. Time to start anew next season.
    This is just too negative take for my blood. Sure we have had some unexpected departures, but we have had some players stay that could leave as well. Mark Williams most recently was a great story after coming back. Wendell Moore also. Trevor Keels's decision most recently surprised a bunch of us, but from everything out there, it really does seem it was a close call.

    It is irrational to be expecting the NBA capable players of not wanting to be "Duke students". They need to leave early to get started on their careers as professional athletes. Why have an attitude that somehow they are not academic or caring of the college experience. Listen to Zion speak and you immediately get the sense he truly misses college. That said, look at so many of our non NBA capable players pursuing their degrees and non sports goals. We've had players go to med school, business school and be great students. That's what we should also be focusing on.

  9. #389
    Join Date
    Nov 2022
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    Atlanta
    Just watched that post-game interview with Lively. He's so likeable. Incredibly composed after a season-ending loss. Compare that to what you saw from veteran UNC players after their loss to UVA.

    From watching the video, here's my take as a biased fan that desperately wants him to stay: The players are obviously advised not to make announcements about the NBA in post-game interviews (unless it's someone like Ryan Young who has no chance of going to the NBA). I would think that coaches and advisers don't want the players to impulsively say "I'm coming back" out of frustration after a tough loss, only to have to announce a different decision weeks later after changing their minds. From watching the video, it sounded like Lively was saying he wanted to come back. He said "we" need to get back in the gym and get better. Then, they asked him if that meant he was coming back. Then, he realized oops, I shouldn't have said that and dialed it back. Towards the end of the interview, he said he realized freshman year was over. If I was going to the NBA, I would be realizing that my college career is over, not just my freshman year. It seemed obvious that he was picturing himself returning to school.

    Here's my take as a Duke fan that has seen how this process goes for years: I think everything I wrote above is probably true. We hear stories afterwards from Zion and Kyrie about how they wanted to come back to school, only to be persuaded by their parents and/or coaches at the last minute to go to the NBA. I think it's still very likely that there is someone important to him telling him it's the best decision to go pro, and he will probably do so. My only hope is that he's not Zion or Kyrie. He's a guy that would benefit so much from coming back to school and developing some post moves.

    I hate this time of year, and I hate how these announcements always end. I had pretty much accepted that's the way it is, then Scheyer and NIL gave some little bit of hope that things might be changing a little bit. I'd be so happy to get back just one of these guys.

  10. #390
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    It seems like we (the DBR board contributors) go through this exercise every year (or, at least, since Duke went in on OAD big time), trying to guess who might stay for an additional year and, like Lucy snatching the football away from Charlie Brown, we always seem to end up being disappointed by the number of players that jump ship to the NBA or the G-League or wherever. I don't know any of these players personally but my impression is that they view "Duke" as just a one-year stepping stone to their ultimate goal and have almost zero interest in being a "Duke student". And I think that is a shame. I don't know if some of these people (those almost guaranteed to be a first-round draft pick) are even bothering showing up or taking any classes for the rest of this semester of if they have already moved on with their lives? My guess is that Whitehead, Proctor, Flip, Lively will all be gone and probably Mitchell and Roach too. Time to start anew next season.
    At least we're not talking about why <player du jour> is exceptional enough to eschew the long standing "guidelines" and have their jersey retired.
    1200. DDMF.

  11. #391
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
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    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    Dereck will go if Dereck decides to go, not simply because somebody wants him to go. Ultimately, it is not the nba scout's decision. And yes, I am aware that these types of people can be very persuasive. But the ultimate authority on what Dereck does is himself.

    Yes, I think he will go. But I don't think it is 100%, and I owe it to everybody to let them have their autonomy.
    I mean, of course it is Dereck's decision, and nobody here is denying him any autonomy. Dereck has said he wants a nest egg for his mom, and he won't get that from NIL. He'll get a nice income, but not a retirement. He's already being projected to be drafted in the first round, which is guaranteed money at near-retirement level, and it is the gateway to the mythical 2nd contract, where the REAL retirement-level money is. If Dereck decides to come back to Duke, he will not be doing so on rational grounds, and it will be contrary to his stated goals.

    I would be phenomenally surprised if he returns to Duke. I'd welcome him with open arms, but then I'd pick my jaw back up off the floor.

  12. #392
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    Nov 2022
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    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by mkirsh View Post
    My wish list for Ryan Young this off season is to add a 3 point shot to his arsenal. Not to be a high volume threat, but just a "keep the defense honest" shot when he has the ball at the top of the key and his defender sags off him. He actually hoisted 21 threes as a freshman at NW (hitting only 3 of them) before effectively eliminating them from his game, but he shot a career best 81% from the FT line this year so you could argue he has shown the ability to improve shooting stroke over time (though to be fair you could ague this year was an outlier FT % and if he hasn't developed 3 point range in 5 years of college why would he start now?)
    I would like to see him shed some weight and get ripped. He's a muscular guy. If he trimmed that fat, he'd be a monster. It would help him be quicker and be a better defender. I'm of the same mindset though that if he hasn't done this already, I don't think it's likely now.

  13. #393
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    He or she was making a comment that the 3 of them would fill the center position in some fashion or another, and that this trio would potentially fill the position adequately. I don't think any specific statement was made about defense there.

    As to your question, Stewart is purported to be a good defender, and definitely has the athleticism and shotblocking ability. Young is a more offensive-minded player and a stout rebounder. Reeves is the biggest question mark, but he's 7'1" and has decent athleticism so it's possible he makes a jump with the added year of physical development.

    So I think the statement that the trio might be effective is a reasonable statement. Not a guarantee of course: we know Young's physical limitations and neither Reeves nor Stewart are proven at all. But "may be" allows for the possibility of "not."
    Pretty much all this. I think Duke will need Stewart and Reeves to surprise a bit to the upside for the Cerberus to work.

  14. #394
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    I mean, of course it is Dereck's decision, and nobody here is denying him any autonomy. Dereck has said he wants a nest egg for his mom, and he won't get that from NIL. He'll get a nice income, but not a retirement. He's already being projected to be drafted in the first round, which is guaranteed money at near-retirement level, and it is the gateway to the mythical 2nd contract, where the REAL retirement-level money is. If Dereck decides to come back to Duke, he will not be doing so on rational grounds, and it will be contrary to his stated goals.

    I would be phenomenally surprised if he returns to Duke. I'd welcome him with open arms, but then I'd pick my jaw back up off the floor.
    Yep. It's not impossible for Lively to return. But it would go against historical norms (we've had all of one likely first-round pick return since Mason Plumlee did so after the 2010 championship) and simplest logic. The overwhelmingly most likely scenario is that he takes his 1st round status and goes pro this year. Like, extremely close to 100%.

    And as you note, us talking about it has no impact on the likelihood, nor does it have any impact on Lively's autonomy to make his own choices.

  15. #395
    Quote Originally Posted by JGDUKE2008 View Post
    You don't need a true center to make a run in the tourney, Michigan State doesn't have a center and they have a good shot at making the final four. What we need to improve on is bringing in guys who can defend and shoot. TJ Power is going to play a lot next year just because he can post up and is a great outside shooter. Proctor, Mitchell should for sure come back, I think Filip can benefit from another year to improve his shot and get strong. The thing going for Duke is 2023 is a loaded draft class where 2024 isn't the same. A guy like Proctor and Filip could easily be top 10-15 picks next year. Here's how I'd like to see our lineup next year.

    Starters.
    1. Proctor 6'6
    2. Foster 6'5
    3. Mitchel 6'8
    4. Mgbako 6'8
    5. FILIP 6'8

    Bench
    1. McCain
    2. Schutt/Blakes
    3. Power
    4. Stewart
    5. Reeves/ Young
    If Filip leaves then you def need to target a portal big. We can rely on Young playing against superior teams. He fouls too much.
    I can even see a lineup where TJ Power starts at the 3 or 4 next year to get more shooting on the floor.
    Are you anticipating that Flip will shrink 4 inches??

  16. #396
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    I mean, of course it is Dereck's decision, and nobody here is denying him any autonomy. Dereck has said he wants a nest egg for his mom, and he won't get that from NIL. He'll get a nice income, but not a retirement. He's already being projected to be drafted in the first round, which is guaranteed money at near-retirement level, and it is the gateway to the mythical 2nd contract, where the REAL retirement-level money is. If Dereck decides to come back to Duke, he will not be doing so on rational grounds, and it will be contrary to his stated goals.

    I would be phenomenally surprised if he returns to Duke. I'd welcome him with open arms, but then I'd pick my jaw back up off the floor.
    Re Dereck -- A one-of-a-kind player with length, quickness and agility valued at every level of hoops. I am guessing he would go in the middle of the lottery -- and will decide to go.

    Dariq has a high ceiling. He had a relatively poor year at Duke due to injury and IMHO (where the H got lost at a 4H show) will go to the NBA, where his talent should land him in the first round.

    Others? I assume Roach is near graduation, given the summer school regimen for our players. I doubt he returns, which has been the word since the beginning of the season.

    No idea about the others, but the welcome mat is out

  17. #397
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yep. It's not impossible for Lively to return. But it would go against historical norms (we've had all of one likely first-round pick return since Mason Plumlee did so after the 2010 championship) and simplest logic. The overwhelmingly most likely scenario is that he takes his 1st round status and goes pro this year. Like, extremely close to 100%.

    And as you note, us talking about it has no impact on the likelihood, nor does it have any impact on Lively's autonomy to make his own choices.
    I agree that it is unlikely that Lively returns, but do want to point out that "historical norms" may carry less weight in the current environment with NIL as a new factor. Maybe NIL isn't enough to matter, or maybe it keeps some borderline second rounders back in school for another year. Too early to tell.

  18. #398
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    Oct 2013
    Location
    Dallas, TX

    Givony Mock Draft

    https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/ins...caa-tournament

    Here's a very recent (6 days ago) ESPN insider article where Jonathan Givony ranks the players in the NCAA tournament. So keep in mind this excludes all college players who did not make the tournament, and obviously foreign players and players who competed in the G-League/OTE/etc.

    He has Kyle #8, Dereck #13, Dariq#15, Tyrese #31, and Mark #48

    Doing some rough draft math in my head, that puts Kyle in the borderline lottery territory, Dereck and Dariq in the mid to late 1st round, and Tyrese in the middle of the 2nd round, and Mark undrafted.

    My completely uninformed opinion is that Dereck and Dariq are 100% going to declare for the draft. The other 3, I could see returning. Flip, only because he's indicated in the past that he is interested in playing multiple years. However, if he's projected to go in the lottery, the chances of him coming back take a massive hit.

  19. #399
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    Feb 2007
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    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Re Dereck -- A one-of-a-kind player with length, quickness and agility valued at every level of hoops. I am guessing he would go in the middle of the lottery -- and will decide to go.

    Dariq has a high ceiling. He had a relatively poor year at Duke due to injury and IMHO (where the H got lost at a 4H show) will go to the NBA, where his talent should land him in the first round.

    Others? I assume Roach is near graduation, given the summer school regimen for our players. I doubt he returns, which has been the word since the beginning of the season.

    No idea about the others, but the welcome mat is out
    Dariq is the most interesting to me. What we saw at Duke was an NBA ready body, elite catch-and-shoot 3 pt shooting, solid on ball defender, good athleticism at times (blocked shots, rebounds in traffic) but less at other times (missed dunks, etc), and a pretty unreliable handle and inability to create. Based on that I am surprised he is a sure fire first rounder, unless pro scouts put a lot of weight into his high school performance. I guess they must as the consensus seems to be a high pick for him, but I am a little surprised (but again, no NBA team is calling me and asking for my draft board).

  20. #400
    If we want to win a championship we need to get better at outside shooting. Foster and Mccain will be big 3 point threats but outside of them next year I don't see anyone besides Schutt who will be shooting 35% or better. Proctor maybe but needs to improve if he comes back. I'd like to target 1 more SG

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