Who Stays and Who Goes?

[BigZ]

Likely gone

Lively
Whitehead
Filipowski

50-50

Roach
Proctor

Likely Stays

Mitchell

[simplyluvin]

Too soon for this, but I'll say if Proctor returns and gets the sophomore shooting bump, we're going to be really, really good.

[Steven43]

Too soon for this, but I'll say if Proctor returns and gets the sophomore shooting bump, we're going to be really, really good.

How is it too soon? Our season is past tense. Jon Scheyer’s first year as Duke head coach has concluded. The One-And-Dones are done.

[gumbomoop]

I tend to think of this thread topic in terms of, as it relates to, the late-Feb thread on Scheyer’s presumed new recruiting focus, i.e., moving away from 1-done emphasis.

In that regard, I don’t expect, and will be disappointed, to see Scheyer bringing in any perimeter (PG and wings) player from the portal who’d likely play even 15 mpg. Even assuming none of Roach, Proctor, or Whitehead returns, and assuming neither Blakes nor Schutt leaves, we have 5 perimeter players who should be ready to take the vast majority of those 120 mpg: 3 guys who can play PG or wing/2 (Foster, McCain, Blakes), a likely sweet-shooting wing/2 (Schutt), and a major-minutes starting wing/3 (Mbako).

Would those 5 be “better” than this season’s “perimeter core 4” of Roach, Proctor, Mitchell, and Whitehead? Not at first glance. But that “perimeter core 4” took most of this entire season to jell, because of Whitehead’s injuries, Mitchell’s 3-4 tweener status, Roach’s injury interruption, and Proctor’s gradual emergence as a very dependable PG.

What if — as I hope — we have a “perimeter core 5” of starters Foster, McCain, and Mbako, and improved backups in Blakes and Schutt? Shouldn’t we expect Mbako to have, overall, a much more productive season than Whitehead’s injury-plagued year? Shouldn't we expect improvement from both Blakes and Schutt?

Absent the return of Filipowski, true, we’d have an inexperienced but — imo — very promising starting 5 in Reeves, backed up by Young. What we lose in Lively’s great, great impact on D, we gain — imo — in Reeves’s better potential on O. I think Reeves may actually have better footwork on O than does Lively. Young might have to play 20 mpg.

Absent the return of Mitchell, true, we’ll have to depend on 2 frosh at the 4, Stewart and Power.

So ... if none of this season’s core 6 returns, Duke would have a talented but inexperienced group of 9. A “transition” year, 2023-24, after which, in 2024-25, we might expect many returnees, joined by 2-3 class of ‘24 frosh.

As I don’t expect, say, as many as 3 of this season’s core 6 to return, I’ll hope for any 1 of that core to return, to give us 10 good players next season. Should 2 of this season’s core 6 (surprisingly) return, I’d predict a pre-season consensus top 5 team, but also, unfortunately, one departure through the portal.

The ideal for 2023-24 would see 2 returnees, a very good ACC season and NCAAT run, and a roster transition year.

[kshepinthehouse]

I tend to think of this thread topic in terms of, as it relates to, the late-Feb thread on Scheyer’s presumed new recruiting focus, i.e., moving away from 1-done emphasis.

In that regard, I don’t expect, and will be disappointed, to see Scheyer bringing in any perimeter (PG and wings) player from the portal who’d likely play even 15 mpg. Even assuming none of Roach, Proctor, or Whitehead returns, and assuming neither Blakes nor Schutt leaves, we have 5 perimeter players who should be ready to take the vast majority of those 120 mpg: 3 guys who can play PG or wing/2 (Foster, McCain, Blakes), a likely sweet-shooting wing/2 (Schutt), and a major-minutes starting wing/3 (Mbako).

Would those 5 be “better” than this season’s “perimeter core 4” of Roach, Proctor, Mitchell, and Whitehead? Not at first glance. But that “perimeter core 4” took most of this entire season to jell, because of Whitehead’s injuries, Mitchell’s 3-4 tweener status, Roach’s injury interruption, and Proctor’s gradual emergence as a very dependable PG.

What if — as I hope — we have a “perimeter core 5” of starters Foster, McCain, and Mbako, and improved backups in Blakes and Schutt? Shouldn’t we expect Mbako to have, overall, a much more productive season than Whitehead’s injury-plagued year? Shouldn't we expect improvement from both Blakes and Schutt?

Absent the return of Filipowski, true, we’d have an inexperienced but — imo — very promising starting 5 in Reeves, backed up by Young. What we lose in Lively’s great, great impact on D, we gain — imo — in Reeves’s better potential on O. I think Reeves may actually have better footwork on O than does Lively. Young might have to play 20 mpg.

Absent the return of Mitchell, true, we’ll have to depend on 2 frosh at the 4, Stewart and Power.

So ... if none of this season’s core 6 returns, Duke would have a talented but inexperienced group of 9. A “transition” year, 2023-24, after which, in 2024-25, we might expect many returnees, joined by 2-3 class of ‘24 frosh.

As I don’t expect, say, as many as 3 of this season’s core 6 to return, I’ll hope for any 1 of that core to return, to give us 10 good players next season. Should 2 of this season’s core 6 (surprisingly) return, I’d predict a pre-season consensus top 5 team, but also, unfortunately, one departure through the portal.

The ideal for 2023-24 would see 2 returnees, a very good ACC season and NCAAT run, and a roster transition year.

If Reeves had such amazing footwork I think we would have played him more this year.

And I thought Mbako was more of a 4

[gumbomoop]

If Reeves had such amazing footwork I think we would have played him more this year.

And I thought Mbako was more of a 4

I didn’t say that Reeves has “amazing” footwork. But I think his O-footwork is smoother than Lively’s. Lively had no handle, sometimes looked awkward with the ball, poor balance, had essentially but a single scoring skill, dunking. I’m aware there’s a significant difference of opinion about Reeves, especially for next season.

Others may want to chime in on Mgbako (which I misspelled in my post, sorry). My impression is that he’s a 3-4, has a good handle and nice outside shot.

[DevilYouKnow]

Too soon for this, but I'll say if Proctor returns and gets the sophomore shooting bump, we're going to be really, really good.

Tyrese has always struck me as an archetypical NBA guard.

[Maged]

I have no problem going into next year with Stewart/Reeves/Young. Reeves will not defend anywhere near Lively or Mark Williams, but he will score some which will be a welcome change from this year. Coach Scheyer will mix and match and play zone when necessary. I see Reeves as being similar to Syracuse's Edwards last year, maybe a 15-18 minute a game guy and a really good full time center the following year.

[dukelifer]

Likely gone

Lively
Whitehead
Filipowski

50-50

Roach
Proctor

Likely Stays

Mitchell

Mitchell may have to stay if the injury requires surgery.

[bshrader]

Mitchell may have to stay if the injury requires surgery.

I don't think Roach is anywhere close to 50/50. I think he's 100% gone.

[Acymetric]

Worried Mitchell's injury could spook him into jumping.

[BigZ]

I’m my opinion Lively is the only guy who could play in a NBA game right now but that doesn’t really mean much.

[kshepinthehouse]

I’m my opinion Lively is the only guy who could play in a NBA game right now but that doesn’t really mean much.

Lively needs about two years of strength training before he plays in the NBA. I’m sure many teams would love to have him but he won’t play much right away.

[JetpackJesus]

Lively needs about two years of strength training before he plays in the NBA. I’m sure many teams would love to have him but he won’t play much right away.

I'd say there's a distinction between playing much on an NBA roster and being in the G-League. I also think Lively is the best candidate for making an NBA team right away and getting some minutes, even if garbage time run.

[kshepinthehouse]

I'd say there's a distinction between playing much on an NBA roster and being in the G-League. I also think Lively is the best candidate for making an NBA team right away and getting some minutes, even if garbage time run.

I don’t think he’s ready to contribute and I think the team who drafts him will want him to get some minutes. That would put him spending time in the g league.

Also, last mock I saw had him drafted in the 20s. Those are playoff teams. He’s not ready to contribute con NBA playoff teams. He didn’t even score today or take a shot.

[jipops]

I don’t think he’s ready to contribute and I think the team who drafts him will want him to get some minutes. That would put him spending time in the g league.

Also, last mock I saw had him drafted in the 20s. Those are playoff teams. He’s not ready to contribute con NBA playoff teams. He didn’t even score today or take a shot.

He’s not ready but somebody is going to take a chance on him. He’s a 7-1 gazelle who can block everything. He doesn’t need the ball and shows he knows his role. Who knows if he’ll ever play nba minutes. He’ll spend a lot of time in the D league. At worst, he’ll make a nice living overseas.

[dm9e24]

History is against anyone returning from the freshman class. Every player in this class is better than all the kids who left the program after one year only to either go in the 2nd round or not get drafted at all in the last seven years. Gary Trent Jr the lone exception. If Keels, Jackson, Stanley, Trent Jr, to name a few, can get 2nd round money than so will every freshman on this year's roster.

We get to watch another team next year that will be heavily reliant on freshman (again) and will eventually lose to an older, more mature program in March. This years team was fortunate that both Miami and Virginia lost their best big men during the ACC tournament. Would we have won anyway. We will never know. But older teams win in March. And we get younger every year.

Jon will need to go to the portal to get some experience on next years team if he plans to make a run. Or a miracle that a few freshmen become sophomores.

[dukelifer]

History is against anyone returning from the freshman class. Every player in this class is better than all the kids who left the program after one year only to either go in the 2nd round or not get drafted at all in the last seven years. Gary Trent Jr the lone exception. If Keels, Jackson, Stanley, Trent Jr, to name a few, can get 2nd round money than so will every freshman on this year's roster.

We get to watch another team next year that will be heavily reliant on freshman (again) and will eventually lose to an older, more mature program in March. This years team was fortunate that both Miami and Virginia lost their best big men during the ACC tournament. Would we have won anyway. We will never know. But older teams win in March. And we get younger every year.

Jon will need to go to the portal to get some experience on next years team if he plans to make a run. Or a miracle that a few freshmen become sophomores.

Injuries happen- not sure why you are dismissing the accomplishments of this team. Even if Scheyer goes to the portal- it will still be a young team. It will take several years before this shifts toward a more experienced team and even then UNC had a very experienced team and they certainly did not win in March.

[dm9e24]

Injuries happen- not sure why you are dismissing the accomplishments of this team. Even if Scheyer goes to the portal- it will still be a young team. It will take several years before this shifts toward a more experienced team and even then UNC had a very experienced team and they certainly did not win in March.

I'm not dismissing the accomplishments of this team. I stated a fact. We benefited from injuries to our opponents much like we were hampered today by an injury to one of our key players. It is a part of the game. We had a great season, considering we had one starter back with 11 new players. I would say that 27 wins that included an ACC Championship was a great accomplishment, considering that we played so much of the season without a full complement of players because of...injuries. We were actually 18-1 when we were fully healthy.

UNC lost quite a few games in January or February too. Clemson had an experienced team. Rutgers had an experienced team. Wake had an experienced team. You have to have talent too.

If Jon goes to the portal, it will be according to who he brings in as to whether we can judge whether our top 7 rotation will be young or not. A lot depends on the decisions of 5 of our top 7 players this spring. I'm hoping we buck history.

[dukelifer]

I'm not dismissing the accomplishments of this team. I stated a fact. We benefited from injuries to our opponents much like we were hampered today by an injury to one of our key players. It is a part of the game. We had a great season, considering we had one starter back with 11 new players. I would say that 27 wins that included an ACC Championship was a great accomplishment, considering that we played so much of the season without a full complement of players because of...injuries. We were actually 18-1 when we were fully healthy.

UNC lost quite a few games in January or February too. Clemson had an experienced team. Rutgers had an experienced team. Wake had an experienced team. You have to have talent too.

If Jon goes to the portal, it will be according to who he brings in as to whether we can judge whether our top 7 rotation will be young or not. A lot depends on the decisions of 5 of our top 7 players this spring. I'm hoping we buck history.

Old players does make an old team. Teams need experience playing as a unit. Teams need time to gel regardless of the age of the individual players.