Who Stays and Who Goes?

[scottdude8]

Any chance the Boozer twins reclassify to next year?

Mitchell coming back is the least important consideration given the freshman wings coming in. We will not likely be a strong rim protecting team next year. Flip would take up space though and be a beast to guard inside.

Early of course - but hard to see we are a sweet 16 team, unless we have Flip and Proctor coming back as we would likely be weaker at every other position next year than we are this year.

Considering they're in the Class of 2025 (along with Cooper Flagg), that chance is zero. Sorry!

Next year, Mgbako is the clearest to project instant-impact guy, and he is indeed a 3/4 wing man like Mark. That combo would be scary, especially given Mgbako's scouting report is that he's a good shooter (certainly better than Mark, although he held his own). If Mark returns and spends the summer refining his shot, we could start two prototypical NBA 3 and D type guys next year, which would be a luxury. But it's worth noting that's really it as it pertains to wings, since Power is likely a longer term prospect that needs to bulk up and played against lesser HS competition. I think he's on a Schutt pathway rather than a Mitchell pathway. And Foster and McCain are both combo guards rather than wings given their size... we could certainly play 3 guard lineups (and likely will in some matchups), but I doubt that will be our go-to next year. The ideal scenario is that we have a returnee (Roach or Proctor) alongside Foster and McCain as a three-headed guard rotation for two spots, with Blakes and Schutt providing depth and the ability to go to a three guard lineup for bench minutes. That would really compliment Mitchel and Mgbako at the 3/4.

[FastBreak]

assume everyone leaves, then be pleasantly surprised if anyone stays. Managing expectations.

If we assume that, here is where we are comparing this year's team to what could be next year:


Lively > Young or Reeves
Flip > Stewart
Mitchell = Mgbako (Mgbako fell out of the top 5 recruit category late in the year)
Proctor > Foster (could be a push here)
Roach > McCain

Hard to imagine us being a top 25 team if 4 out of 5 starters will be worse than this year's.

[kshepinthehouse]

Fair point. What I should've said is that Duke has NBA-quality facilities and support staff, so the potential is there for significant development from Year 1-2. We already saw Blakes take a leap from a guy few expected to ever contribute to, like I said earlier, a guy who scored 17 points in back-to-back ACC games at one point this season. We haven't had a ton of multi-year guys recently to really test how good our year-to-year development is, but we did develop Wendell and Mark into first rounders when they returned last year.

I think those that are writing off Schutt/Reeves on their inability to contribute as freshmen are having much too narrow a few of things, especially given Scheyer's explicit desire to put a focus on developing multi-year players to maintain continuity. You can't teach 7-foot-1, and you can't teach Schutt's shooting ability (even if it hasn't yet translated to a game). Both have the potential to make an impact in a Duke uniform if we allow them to have their ups and downs, which we'll have to if we want to get away from OAD dominated teams. You can't have your cake and eat it too... or, more accurately, you can't have homegrown juniors and seniors and also demand we go find a better thing in the portal each season.



Yeah, by all accounts Stewart's calling card is defense and rebounding, including the all-important ability to switch onto guards on the perimeter when necessary. The fact that he doesn't have NBA size might keep him in a Duke uniform longer than someone like Lively, but in the college game he could have as big an impact (maybe just not in year 1). We've been spoiled with 7-footers of late, but there is a reason they're the exception and not the norm in the college game. I think we're very likely to see Stewart play important minutes at the 5 next year in the right matchup, especially if Reeves is still developing.

Interesting you keep touting Blakes’ improvement and 17 point outing. After that game in December he only had 20 points the rest of the season.

[scottdude8]

If we assume that, here is where we are comparing this year's team to what could be next year:


Lively > Young or Reeves
Flip > Stewart
Mitchell = Mgbako (Mgbako fell out of the top 5 recruit category late in the year)
Proctor > Foster (could be a push here)
Roach > McCain

Hard to imagine us being a top 25 team if 4 out of 5 starters will be worse than this year's.

I think you're really overestimating what it means to be a "Top 25 team". Memphis and FAU were #24 and 25 in the final AP poll this year, and I think a worst-case scenario lineup of Foster, McCain, Mgbako, Stewart, and Young is certainly on their level (even if it takes that young of a team time to gel, like it did last year). But that is a worst case scenario.

Also, don't sleep on Mgbako based solely on the raw ranking. Most of the recruiting sites have emphasized that the Top 10 this year is much more fluid than usual, and have explicitly stated that many see Mgbako as potentially the top prospect in the class. There's no clear consensus this year like in years past, surely part of the lingering effects of COVID on the scouting community. From everything I've seen and read, Mgbako has the potential to make the impact that we were hoping a healthy Dariq would have this year.

Finally, there's also plenty of evidence that Foster and McCain could be on Proctor's level as freshmen. Remember Tyrese was originally in the 2023 class and ranked around those guys, but came a year early. Both Foster and McCain have had impressive senior seasons, and will be a year older than Proctor was this year. Having a backcourt of freshmen is never ideal, but I think you're overestimating how much of a step down either of those guys would be from this year's Tyrese. Now, compared to a hypothetical sophomore Tyrese there's of course a bigger difference, but I don't think that's what you were outlining above.

[Reilly]

assume everyone leaves, then be pleasantly surprised if anyone stays. Managing expectations.

I learned to do this when Shav caught the ball on the low block -- trained my brain to expect a missed layup of some sort and sometimes was pleasantly surprised.

[proelitedota]

If we assume that, here is where we are comparing this year's team to what could be next year:


Lively > Young or Reeves
Flip > Stewart
Mitchell = Mgbako (Mgbako fell out of the top 5 recruit category late in the year)
Proctor > Foster (could be a push here)
Roach > McCain

Hard to imagine us being a top 25 team if 4 out of 5 starters will be worse than this year's.

I disagree that freshman Proctor being better than feshman McCain. Proctor only came into form at the end of the season. McCain would be far more productive day 1.

[BigZ]

If we assume that, here is where we are comparing this year's team to what could be next year:


Lively > Young or Reeves
Flip > Stewart
Mitchell = Mgbako (Mgbako fell out of the top 5 recruit category late in the year)
Proctor > Foster (could be a push here)
Roach > McCain

Hard to imagine us being a top 25 team if 4 out of 5 starters will be worse than this year's.

Could be a good thing bc the team might get next years guys to actually return for Sophomore seasons in 25

[scottdude8]

Interesting you keep touting Blakes’ improvement and 17 point outing. After that game in December he only had 20 points the rest of the season.

Again, it's all about context. At this point last year, the majority opinion on this board was that Blakes had no chance of ever playing impactful minutes in a Duke uniform. He outplayed that by a mile this year. And while his production expectedly leveled off, we don't know how much of that was influenced by Tyrese's ascent and his broken nose (I get the sense that the latter had much more of an effect than was ever let on).

I think people are really misreading my posts on Jaylen, so let me be clear. I'm not saying I expect Jaylen to be a starter next year. I'm not saying I ever expect him to be. But I'm saying that writing him off based on how he faded this season is a massive overreaction, as is assuming that means he's going to transfer.

When Jaylen entered the program, all accounts were that he was planning on being a 4 year guy, with his high school coach flat out saying that was his plan and his goal was to be a future captain. Jon went out of his way to heap praise upon Jaylen much of the season. There's no reason to believe he can't take another step forward this season to the point that he's more consistent contributor. It's not guaranteed, because nothing is guaranteed in college basketball. But again, Jaylen is not Jordan Goldwire: he was ESPN's #91 recruit, with offers from Texas, UConn, and Va Tech amongst others. He's always had potential.

If we want to get away from OAD dominated teams, Jaylen is the type of guy we want that will stick with the program and get incrementally better each season until he makes a big impact as an upper classman. We can't have our cake and eat it to: we can't want 3/4 year guys that improve over time and create continuity in the program while also having a knee-jerk reaction each offseason and demanding Jon go to the portal to get the shiny new thing. Maybe that means we have some rockier starts to seasons, or more seasons where we're a 4/5 seed as opposed to a 1/2 seed than we've been accustomed to... we'll find out if Jon commits to that route. But I'm getting frustrated by the perspective on this board that these players' potential is fully dictated by what we see from them in Year 1 or 2. That's not the reality for most every other program in the country, and by all accounts that won't be the reality for our program moving forward as Jon puts his stamp on things.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Some folks on here have a much higher floor for "pessimism." My most pessimistic scenario is much worse than any I see listed here.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Make a deal with Mike Elko. 3 of the strongest most agile guys from the football team join basketball when the football season ends. Use them when the game is called like it is wrestling or football and not basketball.

SoCal

[bshrader]

Some folks on here have a much higher floor for "pessimism." My most pessimistic scenario is much worse than any I see listed here.

I'm assuming you mean that all 6 in question leave, 2 of 3 from Reeves, Schutt and Blakes transfer?

[hsheffield]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMEgsVOtVQY

[Hartford Dukie]

Lots of talk elsewhere with "people in the know" that we will know within the next two weeks that several of our starters will be back. Implication that Flip, Tyrese, and Mark will be back.

[CDu]

Fair point. What I should've said is that Duke has NBA-quality facilities and support staff, so the potential is there for significant development from Year 1-2. We already saw Blakes take a leap from a guy few expected to ever contribute to, like I said earlier, a guy who scored 17 points in back-to-back ACC games at one point this season. We haven't had a ton of multi-year guys recently to really test how good our year-to-year development is, but we did develop Wendell and Mark into first rounders when they returned last year.

Moore and Williams were top-tier recruits though. I am not sure that their arrival as 1st round picks is due to Duke vs them just being fairly elite prospects out of high school.

Conversely, we have had several 3-4 year guys who haven’t developed much: Bolden, Baker, and DeLaurier for example.

So I would again suggest that development hasn’t been the strength of Duke’s program for a while now. But rather talent acquisition has been the program’s strength.

[proelitedota]

Implication that Flip, Tyrese, and Mark will be baclk.

If this is true pray that we stay healthy the whole year.

[proelitedota]

Moore and Williams were top-tier recruits though. I am not sure that their arrival as 1st round picks is due to Duke vs them just being fairly elite prospects out of high school.

Moore and Williams were around low five stars and high four stars. They're expected to stay in college for two to three years, unless they blow up like Cassius did.

Our most recent guy that should've gone after a year based on their ranking but stayed is Matt Hurt.

[jaywilliams22]

Lots of talk elsewhere with "people in the know" that we will know within the next two weeks that several of our starters will be back. Implication that Flip, Tyrese, and Mark will be back.

Where? I need to read some positivity!

[UrinalCake]

I agree it won't be a position of strength which lowers the team defense. Unless, Reeves is the 2nd coming of Mark Williams.

Lively was the second coming of Mark Williams. Reeves would have to be the third 8-)

[Rich]

I need to read some positivity!

Go to the Men's Lax and Women's Softball threads

[MChambers]

Lots of talk elsewhere with "people in the know" that we will know within the next two weeks that several of our starters will be back. Implication that Flip, Tyrese, and Mark will be back.

Please don't get my hopes up!