Who Stays and Who Goes?

[scottdude8]

I think the general consensus among those that would be considered in the know is that Mitchell and Proctor return, and Flip is much more of an iffy situation. He will essentially have a decision to make and it could go either way. However, it is important to remember that pretty much all these same people expected Keels back last year.

The same people also believe it is a given that Lively, Whitehead, and Roach won’t return.

Expand on this and provide some sourcing, otherwise this is textbook rumor mongering and against board policies.

I really hope you’re right, and if you know something please share fully. But this vague hinting isn’t the type of thing that’s smiled on around here.

[JasonEvans]

Hot off the presses, the DBR podcast just dropped a deep dive on who stays and who goes. We call this "educated guesses" so don't hold us to these predictions (though I feel pretty darn confident about most of them).

Here is the episode that talks about the guards: Proctor, Roach, Whitehead, Blakes, and Schutt -- https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/duk...=VMP6548844639

The episode that talks about the big men - Flip, Mitchell, Lively, Young, and Reeves - will drop tomorrow at 1pm. When it is available, you will be able to listen to it here -- https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/duk...=VMP3014930329

Enjoy!!

[aivroadstr]

Interesting take from nbadraftroom.com: https://nbadraftroom.com/which-fresh...urn-to-school/

According to them, Whitehead is the only Duke player who is the only one who 100% should declare. They say Lively and Proctor probably should declare. Flip and Mitchell maybe should declare but should probably return to school.

[BigZ]

Let’s be honest getting two of the six back would be great

[cbarry]

Let’s be honest getting two of the six back would be great

… but EXTREMELY unlikely. I’d put the over/under at 0.5, and I’d probably still take the under.

Players just don’t stick around Duke long term any more. I’d love to see Tyrese, Flip, and Mark stay one more year, but I don’t see it happening.

I think it’s very likely that Ryan is the only returning player who played more than 1 min/game last year. Hopefully we will get more multi-year players in the future, as Jon has stated… but we aren’t there yet.

[CDu]

… but EXTREMELY unlikely. I’d put the over/under at 0.5, and I’d probably still take the under.

Players just don’t stick around Duke long term any more. I’d love to see Tyrese, Flip, and Mark stay one more year, but I don’t see it happening.

I think it’s very likely that Ryan is the only returning player who played more than 1 min/game last year. Hopefully we will get more multi-year players in the future, as Jon has stated… but we aren’t there yet.

So you think Schutt and Blakes transfer? I think it is unlikely if we lose all six regulars that those two guys would also leave.

[cbarry]

So you think Schutt and Blakes transfer? I think it is unlikely if we lose all six regulars that those two guys would also leave.

I feel pretty certain that Schutt and Blakes transfer regardless of what the others do.

[SouthernDukie]

… but EXTREMELY unlikely. I’d put the over/under at 0.5, and I’d probably still take the under.

Players just don’t stick around Duke long term any more. I’d love to see Tyrese, Flip, and Mark stay one more year, but I don’t see it happening.

I think it’s very likely that Ryan is the only returning player who played more than 1 min/game last year. Hopefully we will get more multi-year players in the future, as Jon has stated… but we aren’t there yet.

The most depressing take yet on next season. I’m not sure when I’ve ever hoped a prognostication was more wrong than yours.

[CDu]

I feel pretty certain that Schutt and Blakes transfer regardless of what the others do.

Yeah, I am going to say with a fair bit of confidence that your prediction here is wrong.

[cbarry]

Yeah, I am going to say with a fair bit of confidence that your prediction here is wrong.

I sure HOPE I’m wrong…. But that’s what I think.

[Billy Dat]

… but EXTREMELY unlikely. I’d put the over/under at 0.5, and I’d probably still take the under.

Players just don’t stick around Duke long term any more. I’d love to see Tyrese, Flip, and Mark stay one more year, but I don’t see it happening.

I think it’s very likely that Ryan is the only returning player who played more than 1 min/game last year. Hopefully we will get more multi-year players in the future, as Jon has stated… but we aren’t there yet.

While your take is certainly pessimistic, until we see different, I can't refute your prognostication with anything other than hope. A mass exodus of the type you describe would be truly deflating. I am hoping for at least a little better.

[dukelifer]

… but EXTREMELY unlikely. I’d put the over/under at 0.5, and I’d probably still take the under.

Players just don’t stick around Duke long term any more. I’d love to see Tyrese, Flip, and Mark stay one more year, but I don’t see it happening.

I think it’s very likely that Ryan is the only returning player who played more than 1 min/game last year. Hopefully we will get more multi-year players in the future, as Jon has stated… but we aren’t there yet.

Do you define long term as 2 years?

[sagegrouse]

Some other sage once said, "Amidst all the excitement about new recruits and returning stars,the most underrated players on any team are the veterans who were on the bench." I'm looking forward to a 2d year from Schutt.

But generally speaking, those underappreciated veterans on the bench don't subsequently become starters the next year for Duke. So I'm not sure how true the saying really is.

Look at the past several years:
2023: Blakes is the only returning bench player; he averaged just 13 mpg this year, and once the top recruits came back he fell out of the rotation entirely
2022: Baker was the only bench player to return; he averaged just 12 mpg
2021: Baker was the only bench player to return (Moore and Goldwire played starter minutes the previous year); he averaged just 12 mpg
2020: Baker, O'Connell, DeLaurier, and Goldwire were the only bench players to return; Baker averaged just 12 mpg, DeLaurier saw his minutes decline, O'Connell averaged just 13 mpg, and Goldwire became a fringe starter (averaging less than 5 ppg)
2019: O'Connell, White, DeLaurier, Bolden, Vrankovic, and Goldwire were returning bench players; White, DeLaurier, and Bolden became fringe starters averaging less than 5 ppg, everybody else remained deep bench players.
2018: Bolden, DeLaurier, White, Vrankovic, and O'Connell were returning bench players; all remained bench players.
2017: Jeter and Vrankovic were the returning bench players; both remained bench players
2016: Plumlee and Allen were the returning bench players; both became impact players, Allen especially so. Though to be fair, both were McDonald's All-Americans, Allen was a top-25 recruit, and Plumlee was a 5th year senior and the only center on the roster.

Basically, only two of the last however many returning Duke bench players from the 2015-2022 seasons became impact players the following season. And both of those guys were McDonald's All-Americans. And only a handful more even became borderline starters. It's not impossible for a returning bench player to make an impact, but in the one-and-done era for Duke by far the safer assumption is that if a player was a bench player last year, he's probably going to be a bench player in the coming year.

My list of "underrated veterans on the bench" include these. (I said "underrated," not "sophomore starters.")
Tyler Thornton
Amile
Marshall Plumlee
Matt Jones
Delaurier
Jack White
Bolden
Goldwire
Robinson

Grayson would have been on the list except for his biblical experience at the end of his freshman Year ("And a child shall lead them"). He was on the bench but not underrated.

And, the list would have been longer if others had stuck around: Murphy, Semi, Chase Jeter, etc.

I am hoping we get to see the same jump forward from Blakes, Schutt and Reeves.

[JasonEvans]

I feel pretty certain that Schutt and Blakes transfer regardless of what the others do.

To be clear, you are saying that you think both Schutt and Blakes will leave even if Proctor and Roach also leave, right?

Put another way, you think Schutt and Blakes would walk away from opportunities to start or at least be the primary backcourt backup (would both McCain and Foster beat them out for the 2 guard spots?).

I feel pretty confident you are wrong about that.

There are 10 current scholarship Duke players who have eligibility left and could come back to the team. If less than 4 do come back, I will be extremely shocked.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

To be clear, you are saying that you think both Schutt and Blakes will leave even if Proctor and Roach also leave, right?

Put another way, you think Schutt and Blakes would walk away from opportunities to start or at least be the primary backcourt backup (would both McCain and Foster beat them out for the 2 guard spots?).

I feel pretty confident you are wrong about that.

There are 10 current scholarship Duke players who have eligibility left and could come back to the team. If less than 4 do come back, I will be extremely shocked.

Also, this is pure speculation (so delete if necessary), but based on everything I read about Blakes coming in, he is a smart kid who was also very bought into the academic and Brotherhood side of things. He knew he would get a chance to play but we would also likely recruit five star recruits over him. I think he is smart enough to realize that though he might be able to eek out some money playing abroad, the bulk of his future earnings would not come from playing basketball.

Merging this with another ongoing discussion topic here, I could see him being someone who was actively on the three year academic plan, and if after three years at Duke he is still not playing, he can go spend his fourth year at a school with guaranteed playing time and he will also have Duke degree and access to all of the benefits of the Brotherhood in his pocket to use for the rest of his life.

Or I could be totally wrong. We shall see...

[cbarry]

To be clear, you are saying that you think both Schutt and Blakes will leave even if Proctor and Roach also leave, right?

Put another way, you think Schutt and Blakes would walk away from opportunities to start or at least be the primary backcourt backup (would both McCain and Foster beat them out for the 2 guard spots?).

I feel pretty confident you are wrong about that.

There are 10 current scholarship Duke players who have eligibility left and could come back to the team. If less than 4 do come back, I will be extremely shocked.

That is exactly what I am predicting. I really, really HOPE it doesn’t happen because that would leave us in a similar situation as this year, where Roach was the only returning rotation player. I suspect Schutt and Blakes see that they will tend to be viewed as reserve players by the Duke coaching staff, even if all of the current players leave.

I enjoyed your discussion on the latest podcast about leaving vs staying. The issue of what they SHOULD do and what they WILL do is key, and for several of the players, the “should” does not equal the “will”.

I think the following players SHOULD come back:
Proctor, Mitchell, Flip

But my gut says none of them WILL.

At this point, it’s all conjecture, so we will just have to wait and see…

[DavidBenAkiva]

… but EXTREMELY unlikely. I’d put the over/under at 0.5, and I’d probably still take the under.

Players just don’t stick around Duke long term any more. I’d love to see Tyrese, Flip, and Mark stay one more year, but I don’t see it happening.

I think it’s very likely that Ryan is the only returning player who played more than 1 min/game last year. Hopefully we will get more multi-year players in the future, as Jon has stated… but we aren’t there yet.

Do you take bets?

[SouthernDukie]

I think the following players SHOULD come back:
Proctor, Mitchell, Flip

But my gut says none of them WILL.

At this point, it’s all conjecture, so we will just have to wait and see…

And again I'll reiterate if that prognostication is correct (even assuming Blakes and Schutt do return) then Duke will be looking at no better than the middle of the pack in the ACC next season.

My real hope would be that Proctor and Mitchell stay (I'm 99% sure the rest are locks to leave, including Roach). We'd need both of them, with Blakes and Schutt, to field what could be considered a Top 15 team that could be good enough for a Final Four run next March. But Proctor progressed so much over the last couple of months that it's likely we lose him as well. So if it's only Mitchell that stays, I'd say we might not even be Top 25 at the beginning of the season.

But a team that returns Mitchell, Young, Blakes and Schutt, along with some solid freshmen, could still progress like this year's team and be in better shape for a run in the ACC Tournament.

[SkyBrickey]

While your take is certainly pessimistic, until we see different, I can't refute your prognostication with anything other than hope. A mass exodus of the type you describe would be truly deflating. I am hoping for at least a little better.

Yeah, I’ve got a lot more confidence in Jon and staff, including Rachel Baker, to keep more of these guys around. I believe Jon has created a great culture and players on the fence will choose to stay. If all the freshmen plus Blakes plus Schutt leave, I will reconsider this position…..

[dukebluesincebirth]

Yeah, I’ve got a lot more confidence in Jon and staff, including Rachel Baker, to keep more of these guys around. I believe Jon has created a great culture and players on the fence will choose to stay. If all the freshmen plus Blakes plus Schutt leave, I will reconsider this position…..

Hope you're right, I'm just not convinced Jon (or any other coach) has much sway in this environment. Rachel Baker probably has more at this point. These guys are all making business decisions, and taking the best option available. I don't think Hubert Davis has much to do with Bacot returning again and again, it's just that college and NIL happen to be his best option available. I think all of our guys have higher ceilings and greater future potential than Bacot, so we'll see what happens.