Who Stays and Who Goes?

[SkyBrickey]

Just catching up. So it’s Proctor, McCain, Mitchell, Flip and Holmes, with Foster, Blakes, Schutt, Mgbako, Power, Stewart, Reeves and Young all logging minutes in a 13 man rotation? Sounds like a national champion to me. 😁

From what I’ve read, I think you have to go after Holmes and do everything you can to keep Reeves from transferring - this all assumes Lively is gone. Assuming all 5 of these starters went pro, a starting lineup of Foster, Schutt, Mgbako, Stewart/Power and Reeves could be a top 10 team in 2024.

I don’t actually expect us to have all 13 of those guys on the roster. That would be a stockpiling crime…. But it’s a fun thought.

[cato]

But that is correlation, not causation.

Yes. That is my point.

[subzero02]

There is no independent value in being ranked at any point of the season. The only value is what a team is seeded, assuming they make the tournament.

However, there *is* value in being good enough to be ranked #1 preseason. That is a better predictor of NCAA success than rankings at other times during the year. Obviously it doesn’t work out all the time or even often, but it is an unquestionably good thing to be in position to get a preseason ranking as the best team prognosticators see in the field.

From a recruiting standpoint, being ranked #1 for a few weeks during the season is definitely a heck of a lot better than playing without a number next to Duke's name for several consecutive weeks.

[JGDUKE2008]

Just catching up. So it’s Proctor, McCain, Mitchell, Flip and Holmes, with Foster, Blakes, Schutt, Mgbako, Power, Stewart, Reeves and Young all logging minutes in a 13 man rotation? Sounds like a national champion to me. 😁

From what I’ve read, I think you have to go after Holmes and do everything you can to keep Reeves from transferring - this all assumes Lively is gone. Assuming all 5 of these starters went pro, a starting lineup of Foster, Schutt, Mgbako, Stewart/Power and Reeves could be a top 10 team in 2024.

I don’t actually expect us to have all 13 of those guys on the roster. That would be a stockpiling crime…. But it’s a fun thought.

I agree after next year I think Reeves could be ready to start. You can throw out a lineup of Mccain year 2, Harris, TJ Power, Stewart and Reeves, Schutt comes off the bench as the 6 man and then fill in the other spots with other guys

[jv001]

My 2 cents worth. This past season our team defense was the best in a long time. I give credit to having Lively who could switch on any screen. There are not that many players (bigs) coming out of high school every year who have that skill. I just don't see Derrick returning, so that's a big hole to fill at center. I don't think Reeves is even close to contributing on defense. If he was, then we'd have seen him on the court more often and not just mop up time. I don't see Coach Scheyer chaining Flip (if he returns) to that position offense or defense. If we were to pick up Holmes, Flip returns and Mark returns do we see Mark at the 4 and Flip at the 3? It's going to be interesting to see which way Coach Scheyer goes. One thing I think we see is better perimeter shooting.

GoDuke!

[JGDUKE2008]

My 2 cents worth. This past season our team defense was the best in a long time. I give credit to having Lively who could switch on any screen. There are not that many players (bigs) coming out of high school every year who have that skill. I just don't see Derrick returning, so that's a big hole to fill at center. I don't think Reeves is even close to contributing on defense. If he was, then we'd have seen him on the court more often and not just mop up time. I don't see Coach Scheyer chaining Flip (if he returns) to that position offense or defense. If we were to pick up Holmes, Flip returns and Mark returns do we see Mark at the 4 and Flip at the 3? It's going to be interesting to see which way Coach Scheyer goes. One thing I think we see is better perimeter shooting.

GoDuke!

Depending who comes back our defense could be better. Proctor is a great defender, Mitchel is a great defender, Stewart is a load blocking shots and atheltic getting rebounds. Mccain I did notice may struggle defensivley.

[kmspeaks]

This all just feels so weird to me. How can Duke have talked to Holmes if he isn't officially in the portal? I know it's a wild west out there with the portal now, but aren't there still rules against communicating with another team's player unless he's in the portal? I know our compliance department is top-notch so I feel like I'm missing some obvious change to the rules here, haha.

I imagine that Holmes has "people," (family, former AAU coaches, maybe someone from his high school?) and that those folks have had talks with people at or connected to Duke. It seems shady, but no less shady than anything to do with NIL.

It doesn't have to be the player making contact. It can be a family member or someone like that who reaches out just to gauge interest. And while I doubt Scheyer and company are making initial phone calls to players not in the portal, if Jon's phone rings (or he gets a text) I don't think there is anything wrong with him answering it.

Makes sense. Maybe I'm applying the NBA "tampering" perspective to this despite it not being an apples to apples comparison.

Man, it would be nice if the NCAA were competent and the rules for this sort of thing were well established and clear... but that's never gonna happen.

The rules are actually quite clear....enforcement is another issue, but the scenarios outlined above are all against the rules. From an NCAA FAQ on transfer rules:

In order to meet the criteria of the one-time transfer exception, the student-athlete must:

» Certify in writing, along with their new head coach, they did not have direct or indirect communication with the new school’s athletics staff prior to entering the NCAA Transfer Portal.

Q7: What happens if a student-athlete had impermissible communications, directly or indirectly, with coaching staff or boosters at the Division I school to which they transfer?

A7: Existing recruiting rules prohibit communication and contact with a student-athlete enrolled at another NCAA school prior to the student-athlete appearing in the NCAA Transfer Portal. These rules also prohibit the indirect use of third parties contacting
individuals on the student-athlete’s behalf (e.g., family member, scholastic or no scholastic coach, advisor). Certain violations of these rules can constitute a significant breach of conduct as it relates to the NCAA infractions process. A student-athlete’s eligibility can be
jeopardized at the school that engaged in impermissible communication."

[gumbomoop]

The rules are actually quite clear...enforcement is another issue, but the scenarios outlined above are all against the rules. From an NCAA FAQ on transfer rules:

It strikes me that enforcement may be inconsistent because there’s too much wiggle-room in the rules, which aren’t entirely clear.

The FAQ says: “Certain violations of these rules can constitute a significant breach of conduct as it relates to the NCAA infractions process. A student-athlete’s eligibility can be jeopardized at the school that engaged in impermissible communication." [Bold added.]

The words “certain” and “can” in the first sentence are mushy. For if “certain” violations “can” be a breach of conduct, others presumably do not always constitute a breach. And in the second sentence, eligibility “can” be jeopardized, but maybe won’t be.

[scottdude8]

The rules are actually quite clear...enforcement is another issue, but the scenarios outlined above are all against the rules. From an NCAA FAQ on transfer rules:

It strikes me that enforcement may be inconsistent because there’s too much wiggle-room in the rules, which aren’t entirely clear.

The FAQ says: “Certain violations of these rules can constitute a significant breach of conduct as it relates to the NCAA infractions process. A student-athlete’s eligibility can be jeopardized at the school that engaged in impermissible communication." [Bold added.]

The words “certain” and “can” in the first sentence are mushy. For if “certain” violations “can” be a breach of conduct, others presumably do not always constitute a breach. And in the second sentence, eligibility “can” be jeopardized, but maybe won’t be.

With the usual caveat that I have 100% faith in our compliance department, this is what I was nervous about. Especially now that this interest has been somewhat widely reported (especially now that it's gone from "insider boards" to reporters on Twitter), it'll be a bit of an iffy look if Holmes does indeed end up in a Duke uniform. That said, given the loose language that gumbo highlighted and the overall wildness of the transfer portal as it stands, I have a feeling the NCAA wouldn't pick this as the case they want to go all-in on. It certainly isn't any more egregious than when Nigel Pack's NIL deal was announced in concert with his decision to transfer to Miami.

All that aside, wouldn't it be nice if this becomes a moot point because Dereck decides to come back and work his way into the Top 10 of next year's draft? A guy can dream.

[Matches]

Eh. Much like the NBA’s tampering rules, the NCAA rules are totally unenforceable. The player can’t have “indirect” contact? What does that even mean? Is it referencing contact through an intermediary? An exchange of pleasantries/ the patented Coach K stomach pat after a game in which they were on opposing sides? Hanging out with players from the new school on a weekend road trip?

There is no - NO - way to police that stuff. The rule is there to prevent coaches or their intermediaries from openly recruiting guys who are on other teams and trying to convince them to transfer, without the knowledge of their current coach. Nothing short of that is a real problem.

[kmspeaks]

With the usual caveat that I have 100% faith in our compliance department, this is what I was nervous about. Especially now that this interest has been somewhat widely reported (especially now that it's gone from "insider boards" to reporters on Twitter), it'll be a bit of an iffy look if Holmes does indeed end up in a Duke uniform. That said, given the loose language that gumbo highlighted and the overall wildness of the transfer portal as it stands, I have a feeling the NCAA wouldn't pick this as the case they want to go all-in on. It certainly isn't any more egregious than when Nigel Pack's NIL deal was announced in concert with his decision to transfer to Miami.

All that aside, wouldn't it be nice if this becomes a moot point because Dereck decides to come back and work his way into the Top 10 of next year's draft? A guy can dream.

I wonder if it's similar to high school recruiting where kids can contact coaches as much as they want, but the schools can't respond prior to a certain date?

[MarkD83]

With the usual caveat that I have 100% faith in our compliance department, this is what I was nervous about. Especially now that this interest has been somewhat widely reported (especially now that it's gone from "insider boards" to reporters on Twitter), it'll be a bit of an iffy look if Holmes does indeed end up in a Duke uniform. That said, given the loose language that gumbo highlighted and the overall wildness of the transfer portal as it stands, I have a feeling the NCAA wouldn't pick this as the case they want to go all-in on. It certainly isn't any more egregious than when Nigel Pack's NIL deal was announced in concert with his decision to transfer to Miami.

All that aside, wouldn't it be nice if this becomes a moot point because Dereck decides to come back and work his way into the Top 10 of next year's draft? A guy can dream.

This is not an issue with scottdude's comment but a comment about what are "official" versus "unofficial / speculative" comments.

Insider boards and tweets from reporters are (in my mind) speculative and should not be considered as factual or official. If they were then here is my two cents...

"I think that everyone thinking about transferring who is not in the portal has considered going to unc. Therefore, they cannot go to unc because it would be a violation of NCAA regulations. I can start to name names of actual players to give this a bit more specificity or I can send an email to the NCAA and they should start an investigation into unc's recruiting practices....based on my crazy idea."

[scottdude8]

This is not an issue with scottdude's comment but a comment about what are "official" versus "unofficial / speculative" comments.

Insider boards and tweets from reporters are (in my mind) speculative and should not be considered as factual or official. If they were then here is my two cents...

"I think that everyone thinking about transferring who is not in the portal has considered going to unc. Therefore, they cannot go to unc because it would be a violation of NCAA regulations. I can start to name names of actual players to give this a bit more specificity or I can send an email to the NCAA and they should start an investigation into unc's recruiting practices...based on my crazy idea."

Very fair. I guess I should clarify my stance on this: by no means do I think that whatever is going on with this prospective transfer is actually a violation. We have every reason to believe that things like this go on all the time in the new college basketball landscape. That said, the potential optics of it make me slightly anxious, given what we know; but that said, we almost 100% only know a tiny portion of what is actually going on, making this all very likely a moot point and just more fodder for offseason conversation that will amount ot nothing significant.

[rsvman]

Well, Dariq is gone. I know there is a whole thread about it, but figured it should at least be mentioned in a thread entitled "Who Stays and Who Goes?"

[azzefkram]

So Duke next year is

Known
Tyrese Proctor
Ryan Young
Caleb Foster
Jared McCain
Sean Stewart
TJ Power
MacKenzie MgBako

TBD
Flip
Jeremy Roach
Mark Mitchell
Dereck Lively
Christian Reeves
Jaylen Blakes
Jaden Schutt

If my math is correct, one more player has to go.

[bshrader]

So Duke next year is

Known
Tyrese Proctor
Ryan Young
Caleb Foster
Jared McCain
Sean Stewart
TJ Power
MacKenzie MgBako

TBD
Flip
Jeremy Roach
Mark Mitchell
Dereck Lively
Christian Reeves
Jaylen Blakes
Jaden Schutt

If my math is correct, one more player has to go.

Not to play the prognosticator, but it could be Roach.

[HoKogan]

So Duke next year is

Known
Tyrese Proctor
Ryan Young
Caleb Foster
Jared McCain
Sean Stewart
TJ Power
MacKenzie MgBako

TBD
Flip
Jeremy Roach
Mark Mitchell
Dereck Lively
Christian Reeves
Jaylen Blakes
Jaden Schutt

If my math is correct, one more player has to go.

I think Lively declares, Blakes transfers. No rumor mongering, just my own guess.

[Southgate0809]

It would be nice if Duke winds up with no transfers out and not needing any incoming transfers. UNC has 6 in the portal. I believe UVA has 3. Neither of those teams is losing guys to the NBA like we will, but I'd rather lose someone to the NBA than have them decide they just don't want to play for Duke anymore.

[johnb]

The rules are actually quite clear...enforcement is another issue, but the scenarios outlined above are all against the rules. From an NCAA FAQ on transfer rules:

Good point.

Jeremy could probably tell us exactly how Duke interprets the rules since he is probably actively negotiating with other schools as we speak. My guess is that he’ll have a deal in place before he announces a portal entry.

I guess it’s possible that he’ll stay if he doesn’t find a good offer, but it would be a little off-putting if he enters the portal and then decides he wants to stay at Duke.

Of course, if he does test the waters and decide to stay, I’m sure it’ll be awesome—we should all be looking for the best situation possible,

[CDu]

It would be nice if Duke winds up with no transfers out and not needing any incoming transfers. UNC has 6 in the portal. I believe UVA has 3. Neither of those teams is losing guys to the NBA like we will, but I'd rather lose someone to the NBA than have them decide they just don't want to play for Duke anymore.

Eh, aside from Love (and it's debatable his average value to their team), none of the UNC guys transferring were going to make an impact for them next year. They'll probably have a net upgrade from the portal. UVa loses a lot, with Clark, Gardner, and Vander Plas running out of eligibility and Shedrick, Traudt, and Caffaro leaving via transfer. It's going to be a substantial challenge for them to regroup, especially given the complexities of Bennett's system.