Who Stays and Who Goes?

[Steven43]

Good thing that you don't have to shudder about this. Lively will be a lottery pick.

No, the shuddering already occurred just by thinking about the possibility. You can’t stop a shudder.

[lotusland]

If Holmes comes we are preseason number 1 but I don't think we will get both him and Filip.

So the rumor mill reported on the DBR podcast was that Duke was looking for a 5 in the portal because they did not see Flip at 5 as a viable option if he stays. So, if true, Flip and Portal 5 are not mutually exclusive.

[bshrader]

So the rumor mill reported on the DBR podcast was that Duke was looking for a 5 in the portal because they did not see Flip at 5 as a viable option if he stays. So, if true, Flip and Portal 5 are not mutually exclusive.

I really like this option, as we saw last season. Flip is still a matchup nightmare going up against most college 4s and it keeps him from having to guard true 5s in the post, where he may be a little foul prone.

[cato]

I have always seen no value in being ranked #1 at any point in the season.

There is no independent value in being ranked at any point of the season. The only value is what a team is seeded, assuming they make the tournament.

However, there *is* value in being good enough to be ranked #1 preseason. That is a better predictor of NCAA success than rankings at other times during the year. Obviously it doesn’t work out all the time or even often, but it is an unquestionably good thing to be in position to get a preseason ranking as the best team prognosticators see in the field.

[DukeTrinity11]

No offense, but you are insane

Lively is a game-changing defender the likes of which do not come along often. I would expect him to be the best defensive player in the country if he returns to school. He can score zero points and still be a major factor in a team's victory. He takes entire sections of the floor out of consideration for an offense. Wherever he is, you can basically draw about a 12 foot circle and know the opposition is not going to attempt to get a shot in that area... and that circle moves as he does.

I believe that by the end of this year, he was as good a shot blocker as anyone who has worn a Duke uniform who did not have the number 23 on their back (not talking about Brian Davis or CWell). I shudder to think what another year of development will bring.

Even if Lively is a generational defender, Holmes' defense is disruptive and he's a good rim protector but his offense is on a completely different level than what Lively can offer. I think Lively is a better pro but Holmes is likely more impactful overall in Year 2. Our defense will be elite out of the gate but our offensive improvement will portend how we ultimately do next year.

[Southgate0809]

Sounds good to get a good center, but please don't run off reeves. It's okay if Ryan Young's minutes go way down. He'll come in at times when the more talented guys are screwing up and you need a leader on the court.

[kako]

Pitching in my agreement here. Ain't no way I'm taking a guy who's never suited up for Duke over the Brotherhood guy that was just named to the Defensive All-ACC first team and All-ACC freshman team.

Uh, yeah... this is a no-brainer. And he was named to those teams after taking a lot of ramp up time post-injury. Lively is a generational defensive player. They don't come along every year. Or even every 20 years. But though he hasn't announced, there's no part of me that thinks he's staying.

9F

[kako]

There is no independent value in being ranked at any point of the season. The only value is what a team is seeded, assuming they make the tournament.

However, there *is* value in being good enough to be ranked #1 preseason. That is a better predictor of NCAA success than rankings at other times during the year. Obviously it doesn’t work out all the time or even often, but it is an unquestionably good thing to be in position to get a preseason ranking as the best team prognosticators see in the field.

I guess we will just have to disagree about value in the first place. The real value is the team itself and how it performs, regardless of ranking. And pre-season rankings have no value in and of themselves, just a bunch of writers and coaches who make guesses. We could do the same thing on this board, and we might be more correct when it's said and done.

9F

[kidA]

However, there *is* value in being good enough to be ranked #1 preseason. That is a better predictor of NCAA success than rankings at other times during the year. Obviously it doesn’t work out all the time…

UNCheats look good…

[DukieInBrasil]

Sounds good to get a good center, but please don't run off reeves. It's okay if Ryan Young's minutes go way down. He'll come in at times when the more talented guys are screwing up and you need a leader on the court.

Ryan certainly was that seasoned veteran early and even mid-way thru the year. However, over the last 10 games or so, Ryan was not nearly as valuable. His FG% fell off some, but mostly it was the propensity for turnovers that caught my eye. His rebounding stayed strong though. I think it's mostly just that ACC teams figured him out and took away what worked well for him. He brings a lot of value to the team and i'm glad he'll be back, but if he's our starting C there will be issues. Even if Duke doesn't land a C from the portal (so futuristic!), Duke will have at least 3 guys who can play the position even if none are ideal for it.

In the offseason I'm hoping that Ryan gets on a strict regimen to increase his foot speed & agility, which should also be accompanied by a body-sculpting campaign. Ryan is not fat, but he would benefit quite substantially if he got ripped. Not necessarily muscle-bound, but more toned, JJ style.
I'm hoping Reeves just continues being tall and that he too works on his lateral quickness. I didn't notice any glaring deficiencies, but then again, he didn't play any minutes in which his play had an impact on the outcome of the game.

[tommy]

Ryan certainly was that seasoned veteran early and even mid-way thru the year. However, over the last 10 games or so, Ryan was not nearly as valuable. His FG% fell off some, but mostly it was the propensity for turnovers that caught my eye. His rebounding stayed strong though. I think it's mostly just that ACC teams figured him out and took away what worked well for him. He brings a lot of value to the team and i'm glad he'll be back, but if he's our starting C there will be issues. Even if Duke doesn't land a C from the portal (so futuristic!), Duke will have at least 3 guys who can play the position even if none are ideal for it.

In the offseason I'm hoping that Ryan gets on a strict regimen to increase his foot speed & agility, which should also be accompanied by a body-sculpting campaign. Ryan is not fat, but he would benefit quite substantially if he got ripped. Not necessarily muscle-bound, but more toned, JJ style.
I'm hoping Reeves just continues being tall and that he too works on his lateral quickness. I didn't notice any glaring deficiencies, but then again, he didn't play any minutes in which his play had an impact on the outcome of the game.

Haha I'm not sure I ever would have expected "Ryan Young" and "body sculpting" to be uttered in the same sentence!

But unless Reeves is ready to contribute, which is highly speculative at this point, or unless we get a shotblocker in the portal, one of the holes in our roster is going to be a lack of rim protection. Kyle, if he returns, is not a rim protector despite being 7 feet tall. Stewart is only 6'8". And Ryan of course is not a shotblocker at all, despite his getting those two in one aberrational outing this year. So yeah, if we were to pursue a rim protector -- which I have to say has been really, really nice to have on the roster the last couple of years -- then that is a sign that the staff does not think Reeves is going to get there by next year.

[cato]

I guess we will just have to disagree about value in the first place. The real value is the team itself and how it performs, regardless of ranking. And pre-season rankings have no value in and of themselves, just a bunch of writers and coaches who make guesses. We could do the same thing on this board, and we might be more correct when it's said and done.

9F

There is zero disagreement. There is no independent value in being ranked. There is value in being good. Being ranked preseason #1 is a better predictor of being good than many other measures.

[freshmanjs]

Being ranked preseason #1 is a better predictor of being good than many other measures.

But that is correlation, not causation.

[Southgate0809]

I don't know, some big men don't play a lot of minutes. If we got a transfer that started and played 25 minutes, reeves could play 10-15, young plays 0-5. That's a significant time upgrade for reeves.

[dukelifer]

But that is correlation, not causation.

The key is to be playing the best ball at the end of the season and to stay healthy. Just need to get into the tourney.

[sagegrouse]

Anyway, I want to be a #1 seed in the NCAAs, just like the old days. Fourteen times in all.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Anyway, I want to be a #1 seed in the NCAAs, just like the old days. Fourteen times in all.

grampasimpson_1.jpg

I remember those old days. It was 2019 when I watched the selection show, and we got that number one seed. I wore an onion on my belt, as it was the style at the time.

[ClemmonsDevil]

grampasimpson_1.jpg

I remember those old days. It was 2019 when I watched the selection show, and we got that number one seed. I wore an onion on my belt, as it was the style at the time.

Sporked!

[Southgate0809]

In fairness, anything precovid seems like a long time ago.

[curtis325]

In fairness, anything precovid seems like a long time ago.

Known as "the before times."