Who Stays and Who Goes?

[DevilYouKnow]

How long has it been since the actual exodus was less than the average Duke fan predictions?

I.e., these threads always have far more hope than the reality provides. I just hope Mitchell and Tyrese stay, but I’m expecting we lose our whole starting five plus Dariq.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Fascinating seeing the mix of optimism and pessimism on display in this thread.

As is usually the case, the truth probably lies somewhere in between.

I tend to be an optimist. Proctor and Mitchell aren't getting the kind of draft buzz most of the one-and-dones have received. There have been a couple of Duke freshmen that went pro anyway, like Duval and Steward. I tend to think those were outliers. Moore, Roach, Williams, Kennard, Hurt, Tre Jones, and others did return under somewhat similar circumstances. So history tells us at least one and maybe both will return. I am optimistic of that, but the history here supports that position.

Filipowski, Lively, and Whitehead are different. They were all top 10 players in their high school class and are consistently in mock drafts. The history suggests they will all go pro. I think Filipowski is the most likely to stay of the three. He is the least athletic of the trio although the most productive in college. He has said things in the past that make it seem like he might be inclined to play another year at Duke. That makes me optimistic he will stay but I understand why others feel different than I do.

Reeves and Schutt seem likely to stay based on historical precedence. Duke has only lost a couple of freshmen to transfer, most notably Brakefield and Coleman. Those two had unique circumstances and were higher-rated recruits coming out of high school. Guys like Goldwire, White, DeLaurier, Baker, O'Connell and others in recent years stayed for at least a sophomore year. The history suggests both Reeves a d Schutt will stay and I am optimistic they will as well.

So the optimists like me are probably overconfident that all but Lively and Whitehead return but I think the pessimists are being too pessimistic for thinking no one will stay. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

[scottdude8]

I agree it won't be a position of strength which lowers the team defense. Unless, Reeves is the 2nd coming of Mark Williams. Young was good against lower teams, but against the good teams, he was abused on defense. Our best looking incoming recruits are perimeter players and a really good looking 3 or 4. Stewart is a short 5 (6'8") or a good sized 4. It's going to be interesting to see what Coach Scheyer does if he loses most of this years freshmen.

GoDuke!

The bolded is key to me, and has been something I've kept an eye on all year. Back last summer, JP Estrella, an ascending 4* center recruit, was thought of as a sure thing to commit to Duke. But something changed suddenly, and he ended up committing to (ugh) Tennessee. The fact that Scheyer didn't seal the deal, when he's been able to do so on seemingly every recruit he's prioritized thus far as Duke's coach, strongly implied then what I still believe now: the staff thinks the solution at the 5 position in 2023-24 is already on the roster, or will be this summer.

There's the potential that this was influenced by Flip's supposed plan to be a multi-year player, which obviously may be out the window after his ascent this year. But it just as well might be that Jon wants to give Reeves the time to develop and become a program guy who makes a major impact as a junior and senior. That will likely require significant minutes this coming year, which can be complimented by Ryan. Recency bias has clouded our judgement of Ryan: on the year, he averaged 6.4 points and 5.5 rebounds in just 17.7 mpg. He played 28 minutes at UVA, putting up 6 points and 11 rebounds. He played 27 minutes at Va Tech putting up 8 and 8. He put up 20 and 12 in 24 minutes against FSU. I could go on. Ryan has shown that he can be a productive ACC big despite his limitations. While a tandem of Young and Reeves (and to some degree Stewart) wouldn't make the 5 position a strength next year, it would by no means be an anchor on this team's potential.

[scottdude8]

How long has it been since the actual exodus was less than the average Duke fan predictions?

I.e., these threads always have far more hope than the reality provides. I just hope Mitchell and Tyrese stay, but I’m expecting we lose our whole starting five plus Dariq.

It appears the deadline to declare is April 23, and the withdrawal deadline is May 31: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/com...ssKeyDates.pdf

I've got a sneaky suspicion that the program will advise the players to wait to officially declare until the tournament is over so as to maximize the news cycle, but there's nothing preventing anyone from making their decisions known at any point.

[knicknut]

How long has it been since the actual exodus was less than the average Duke fan predictions?

I.e., these threads always have far more hope than the reality provides. I just hope Mitchell and Tyrese stay, but I’m expecting we lose our whole starting five plus Dariq.

This is sadly a very accurate point. Chime in if anyone disagrees, but over the last ten off seasons, the only two players I thought had a decent argument to leave who didn't were Grayson after his sophomore year (which may have been the right choice in hindsight, although his pro career has worked out) and Mark Williams coming back to last year's team after coming on late in 2020. Maybe Tre.

Everyone else who had an argument to leave did, along with many who didn't (DJ, Trevon).

Realistically, I think the over/under on returning players from our top 8 (excluding Ryan) is 0.5. We need to be pleasantly surprised if any one of Roach, Mark, or Tyrese return (I'd say Mark most likely, Tyrese least). Everyone convinces themselves of the "improve your stock" narrative, but that's just not the way it works anymore, even with NIL. The consensus seems to be to get to pro ball to work on your game, even if the guaranteed money isn't what you hoped.

[clinresga]

Have you folks looked at any mock drafts. None of our guys are projected as lottery picks. That doesn't always mean much, but usually a good indicator if someone is going. Actually mock drafts were pretty rough for Duke guys.

https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/
https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2023-nba-mock-draft/
Most friendly to Duke players is below.
https://www.nbcsports.com/washington...adline-edition

I am generally in the Mtn Devil camp--they're all going, deal with it--but G man does point out that mock drafts trend negatively towards the class. A quick look at five mocks show our players rated as follows (in order, nbadraftroom.net, NBC Sports, NBAdraft.net, SB Nation, Bleacher Report)
Whitehead: 26, 15, NR, 18, 22
Lively: 28, 28, NR, 29, 24
Filipowski: NR, 14, 30, 17, 17

Proctor, Mitchell are not on any of these mocks (including nbadraft.net, which ranked through the second round as well).

First, shows how random these drafts are--like Flip at either 14, or undrafted.
Also reminds us how different college and NBA preferences are--like Drew Timme at 58 or Isaiah Wong at 50.
Give me Mitchell back, and I'm very happy. Proctor, I'm ecstatic, both, I'm over the moon. But not holding my breath. And the transfer portal will surely take a bite out of us as well.

[scottdude8]

Fascinating seeing the mix of optimism and pessimism on display in this thread.

As is usually the case, the truth probably lies somewhere in between.

I tend to be an optimist. Proctor and Mitchell aren't getting the kind of draft buzz most of the one-and-dones have received. There have been a couple of Duke freshmen that went pro anyway, like Duval and Steward. I tend to think those were outliers. Moore, Roach, Williams, Kennard, Hurt, Tre Jones, and others did return under somewhat similar circumstances. So history tells us at least one and maybe both will return. I am optimistic of that, but the history here supports that position.

Filipowski, Lively, and Whitehead are different. They were all top 10 players in their high school class and are consistently in mock drafts. The history suggests they will all go pro. I think Filipowski is the most likely to stay of the three. He is the least athletic of the trio although the most productive in college. He has said things in the past that make it seem like he might be inclined to play another year at Duke. That makes me optimistic he will stay but I understand why others feel different than I do.

Reeves and Schutt seem likely to stay based on historical precedence. Duke has only lost a couple of freshmen to transfer, most notably Brakefield and Coleman. Those two had unique circumstances and were higher-rated recruits coming out of high school. Guys like Goldwire, White, DeLaurier, Baker, O'Connell and others in recent years stayed for at least a sophomore year. The history suggests both Reeves a d Schutt will stay and I am optimistic they will as well.

So the optimists like me are probably overconfident that all but Lively and Whitehead return but I think the pessimists are being too pessimistic for thinking no one will stay. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

Like you, I'm on the optimistic side but understand the pessimistic perspective given recent history. I think the worrying about transfers from Blakes, Schutt and Reeves is way off base considering what we actually know, which is that all three of them were recruited with a clear multi-year plan in place. Now, things can of course change, but unless we get an unusual amount of returnees that would make the pathway to minutes for any of those three extremely narrow, I think we can be confident that those three, plus Ryan Young, will make up a decent core of returning scholarship players. Any of those four could blossom and develop over the summer into a major contributor to next year's team, because the reality is (something that many here have somehow forgotten) that young basketball players do improve year-to-year, especially in Duke's developmental program (and yes, I recognize that Young probably is who he is at this point, so this applies mainly to the other 3 guys... but stranger things have happened).

Something else to consider (and something Brendan Marks highlighted in his paywalled Athletic piece a few weeks back) is that this year's draft class is widely seen as much better than next year's. There's a real chance that Tyrese could go from a second rounder to a lottery pick, and Mark from undrafted to a first rounder, given the relative strength of the 2023/24 classes. Heck, Kyle could conceivably go from a fringe lottery pick to a Top 5 guy if he bulks up. That, plus NIL, makes the decisions for those three much different than the decisions we've been used to in the last decade or so.

[mapei]

I suspect that most will go, either to play pro ball in the NBA or somewhere else, or to the portal. I have sort of resigned myself to the idea that few players care much anymore about the "student" part of "student-athlete," and that without the lure of getting a decent academic education players tend to move on when they have choices. I wish it were otherwise: Duke is a great university with a great basketball tradition/program. But players' usual reason for participating seems to be to get exposure while they develop and to form useful relationships. Not much incentive to stay once the doors are opened to their next chapters. I have loved watching this year's team but I don't expect to see many of the same faces next year.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Like you, I'm on the optimistic side but understand the pessimistic perspective given recent history. I think the worrying about transfers from Blakes, Schutt and Reeves is way off base considering what we actually know, which is that all three of them were recruited with a clear multi-year plan in place. Now, things can of course change, but unless we get an unusual amount of returnees that would make the pathway to minutes for any of those three extremely narrow, I think we can be confident that those three, plus Ryan Young, will make up a decent core of returning scholarship players. Any of those four could blossom and develop over the summer into a major contributor to next year's team, because the reality is (something that many here have somehow forgotten) that young basketball players do improve year-to-year, especially in Duke's developmental program (and yes, I recognize that Young probably is who he is at this point, so this applies mainly to the other 3 guys... but stranger things have happened).

Something else to consider (and something Brendan Marks highlighted in his paywalled Athletic piece a few weeks back) is that this year's draft class is widely seen as much better than next year's. There's a real chance that Tyrese could go from a second rounder to a lottery pick, and Mark from undrafted to a first rounder, given the relative strength of the 2023/24 classes. Heck, Kyle could conceivably go from a fringe lottery pick to a Top 5 guy if he bulks up. That, plus NIL, makes the decisions for those three much different than the decisions we've been used to in the last decade or so.

I think the MOST pessimistic group should expect the following back:

Proctor, Mitchell, Young (has said so), Reeves, and at least one of Blakes/Schutt

Plus the 5 freshmen

That is 10-11 scholarship players with a need at the 5. I can't remember going into a season where the roster wasn't at least 80% clear at the end of the previous season. The closest situation was in 2016 when Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow somewhat unexpectedly went pro. Still, they got Thornton to reclassify. Really they just needed one guy to fill a hole at PG. There a Flip sized question mark for next year's roster. Otherwise, it looks pretty good.

[CDu]

Like you, I'm on the optimistic side but understand the pessimistic perspective given recent history. I think the worrying about transfers from Blakes, Schutt and Reeves is way off base considering what we actually know, which is that all three of them were recruited with a clear multi-year plan in place. Now, things can of course change, but unless we get an unusual amount of returnees that would make the pathway to minutes for any of those three extremely narrow, I think we can be confident that those three, plus Ryan Young, will make up a decent core of returning scholarship players. Any of those four could blossom and develop over the summer into a major contributor to next year's team, because the reality is (something that many here have somehow forgotten) that young basketball players do improve year-to-year, especially in Duke's developmental program (and yes, I recognize that Young probably is who he is at this point, so this applies mainly to the other 3 guys... but stranger things have happened).

Something else to consider (and something Brendan Marks highlighted in his paywalled Athletic piece a few weeks back) is that this year's draft class is widely seen as much better than next year's. There's a real chance that Tyrese could go from a second rounder to a lottery pick, and Mark from undrafted to a first rounder, given the relative strength of the 2023/24 classes. Heck, Kyle could conceivably go from a fringe lottery pick to a Top 5 guy if he bulks up. That, plus NIL, makes the decisions for those three much different than the decisions we've been used to in the last decade or so.

I wouldn’t say that players improve “especially in Duke’s developmental program.” I think that many programs do a better job of developing players over the last decade or more. Duke’s strength has been in acquiring elite talent.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

It appears the deadline to declare is April 23, and the withdrawal deadline is May 31: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/com...ssKeyDates.pdf

I've got a sneaky suspicion that the program will advise the players to wait to officially declare until the tournament is over so as to maximize the news cycle, but there's nothing preventing anyone from making their decisions known at any point.

And furthering this point, see who else is declaring so they have a better sense of the competition. These decisions should not be made in a vacuum.

The two huge unknowns that we don’t know are a) how much are they really getting from NIL and b) how much do they enjoy being at Duke.

I know these players have a ton of self confidence and a lot of people telling them how great they are. Personally, I would rather be a rock star at Duke than riding buses between cities that none of us ever consider visiting unless we really had to. But I’m also a highly risk averse person who sits behind a desk and tells people how to avoid risk for a living, so what do I know?

[CDu]

I think the MOST pessimistic group should expect the following back:

Proctor, Mitchell, Young (has said so), Reeves, and at least one of Blakes/Schutt

Plus the 5 freshmen

That is 10-11 scholarship players with a need at the 5. I can't remember going into a season where the roster wasn't at least 80% clear at the end of the previous season. The closest situation was in 2016 when Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow somewhat unexpectedly went pro. Still, they got Thornton to reclassify. Really they just needed one guy to fill a hole at PG. There a Flip sized question mark for next year's roster. Otherwise, it looks pretty good.

I don’t think the most pessimistic view would include two starters returning.

I think it is quite possible that two starters return. But that wouldn’t be the most pessimistic view.

[FastBreak]

Recency bias has clouded our judgement of Ryan: on the year, he averaged 6.4 points and 5.5 rebounds in just 17.7 mpg. He played 28 minutes at UVA, putting up 6 points and 11 rebounds. He played 27 minutes at Va Tech putting up 8 and 8. He put up 20 and 12 in 24 minutes against FSU. I could go on. Ryan has shown that he can be a productive ACC big despite his limitations.

I think what is likely to come into greater focus the next few weeks is that playing well against a very weak ACC made us overestimate both the overall team's standing nationally, but individual players as well. Young did do well in the ACC, but against top 10 level teams, both him and others on the team couldn't keep up.

[dukelifer]

Fascinating seeing the mix of optimism and pessimism on display in this thread.

As is usually the case, the truth probably lies somewhere in between.

I tend to be an optimist. Proctor and Mitchell aren't getting the kind of draft buzz most of the one-and-dones have received. There have been a couple of Duke freshmen that went pro anyway, like Duval and Steward. I tend to think those were outliers. Moore, Roach, Williams, Kennard, Hurt, Tre Jones, and others did return under somewhat similar circumstances. So history tells us at least one and maybe both will return. I am optimistic of that, but the history here supports that position.

Filipowski, Lively, and Whitehead are different. They were all top 10 players in their high school class and are consistently in mock drafts. The history suggests they will all go pro. I think Filipowski is the most likely to stay of the three. He is the least athletic of the trio although the most productive in college. He has said things in the past that make it seem like he might be inclined to play another year at Duke. That makes me optimistic he will stay but I understand why others feel different than I do.

Reeves and Schutt seem likely to stay based on historical precedence. Duke has only lost a couple of freshmen to transfer, most notably Brakefield and Coleman. Those two had unique circumstances and were higher-rated recruits coming out of high school. Guys like Goldwire, White, DeLaurier, Baker, O'Connell and others in recent years stayed for at least a sophomore year. The history suggests both Reeves a d Schutt will stay and I am optimistic they will as well.

So the optimists like me are probably overconfident that all but Lively and Whitehead return but I think the pessimists are being too pessimistic for thinking no one will stay. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

I feel similarly. Although unlikely, I could see Flip staying one more year- to bolster his draft position and to get stronger. He would be in a position to be a candidate for ACC POY, will have an opportunity to develop as a leader and work on that inconsistent 3 point shot. Plus his twin brother will likely graduate from Harvard and will laud that college degree over him. One more year gets him closer to that goal

Proctor could go pro in Australia any time and could have done so without stepping on Duke’s campus. His goal is the NBA and he has to decide if he wants to develop in the G league or on campus. He is a possible second rounder because of his size and that may be enough to entice.

Mitchell has NBA potential but is not there yet. He needs to get better next year to improve his stock but right now he is a possible second rounder or will be undrafted. The knee injury may be a factor - so we will see about that.

[Acymetric]

I think the MOST pessimistic group should expect the following back:

Proctor, Mitchell, Young (has said so), Reeves, and at least one of Blakes/Schutt

Plus the 5 freshmen

That is 10-11 scholarship players with a need at the 5. I can't remember going into a season where the roster wasn't at least 80% clear at the end of the previous season. The closest situation was in 2016 when Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow somewhat unexpectedly went pro. Still, they got Thornton to reclassify. Really they just needed one guy to fill a hole at PG. There a Flip sized question mark for next year's roster. Otherwise, it looks pretty good.

I think you need to take Mitchell off that list. Far from a given he returns, if we're talking about the "most pessimistic group".

[proelitedota]

Just FYI, Sean Stewart averaged more blocks per game in his senior year, 4.6 than Lively did at 4.5. maybe the level of competition isn't the same but by all accounts Sean is a good rim protector.

He is going to be a good defender at the 5 but might lack the bulk against 7 footers.

[FastBreak]

Any chance the Boozer twins reclassify to next year?

Mitchell coming back is the least important consideration given the freshman wings coming in. We will not likely be a strong rim protecting team next year. Flip would take up space though and be a beast to guard inside.

Early of course - but hard to see we are a sweet 16 team, unless we have Flip and Proctor coming back as we would likely be weaker at every other position next year than we are this year.

[budwom]

assume everyone leaves, then be pleasantly surprised if anyone stays. Managing expectations.

[scottdude8]

I wouldn’t say that players improve “especially in Duke’s developmental program.” I think that many programs do a better job of developing players over the last decade or more. Duke’s strength has been in acquiring elite talent.

Fair point. What I should've said is that Duke has NBA-quality facilities and support staff, so the potential is there for significant development from Year 1-2. We already saw Blakes take a leap from a guy few expected to ever contribute to, like I said earlier, a guy who scored 17 points in back-to-back ACC games at one point this season. We haven't had a ton of multi-year guys recently to really test how good our year-to-year development is, but we did develop Wendell and Mark into first rounders when they returned last year.

I think those that are writing off Schutt/Reeves on their inability to contribute as freshmen are having much too narrow a few of things, especially given Scheyer's explicit desire to put a focus on developing multi-year players to maintain continuity. You can't teach 7-foot-1, and you can't teach Schutt's shooting ability (even if it hasn't yet translated to a game). Both have the potential to make an impact in a Duke uniform if we allow them to have their ups and downs, which we'll have to if we want to get away from OAD dominated teams. You can't have your cake and eat it too... or, more accurately, you can't have homegrown juniors and seniors and also demand we go find a better thing in the portal each season.

Just FYI, Sean Stewart averaged more blocks per game in his senior year, 4.6 than Lively did at 4.5. maybe the level of competition isn't the same but by own accounts Sean is a good rim protector.

He is going to be a good defender at the 5 but might lack the bulk against 7 footers.

Yeah, by all accounts Stewart's calling card is defense and rebounding, including the all-important ability to switch onto guards on the perimeter when necessary. The fact that he doesn't have NBA size might keep him in a Duke uniform longer than someone like Lively, but in the college game he could have as big an impact (maybe just not in year 1). We've been spoiled with 7-footers of late, but there is a reason they're the exception and not the norm in the college game. I think we're very likely to see Stewart play important minutes at the 5 next year in the right matchup, especially if Reeves is still developing.

[proelitedota]

We will not likely be a strong rim protecting team next year.

I pointed out in my previous post that Sean Stewart averaged more blocks a game than Lively did in high school.

Obviously unlikely do be as imposing as Lively as a defender but interior defense is not a weakness in the lane for Stewart.