Who Stays and Who Goes?

[bluedev_92]

No I will not admit that. Not being listed on a mock draft board is not an indicator that a player will stay. I'm going off of historical precedence: Cassius, Trevon, DJ, Keels, Frank, Vernon etc etc

In fact, Proctor being listed as 10 on '24 big board is only further evidence he's seen as a solid pro prospect and will probably leave Duke this spring.

I'd challenge you to present some evidence that there is a 50/50 chance Proctor returns. Didn't play a "full season" at point guard? C'mon man. You're really reaching to find an argument here.

It’s still your personal opinion. Proctor has not said that he is leaving.

[SkyBrickey]

you have apparently missed the entire thread that Young himself announced that he is staying.

Neither Mitchell nor Proctor are ready for the NBA, but both might be ready to grow in the G-League. NIL $$ $ will likely be bigger at Duke than whatever they can get in G-League.

I know everybody is saying that Roach is a lock to be gone, but he won't get drafted and could start earning paltry salary in the G-League, and maybe a bit more in Europe. His best financial play is to stay at Duke and earn NIL money. I know that professional development will be faster in any professional setting than at Duke, but there's probably a lot more money available at Duke for Roach, Proctor, and Mitchell than any of their other options.

If Flip gets the indication that he's gonna get drafted in the 1st round, he should probably go.

This is pretty much my view. If anyone on this board knows how much NIL money is available to bring these three back, they are not saying.

It’s unfortunately partly an arms race in college basketball to get and retain key talent. I hope a big part of the reason we brought the Nike woman in is to put together deals that will keep Roach, Proctor and Mitchell around for one more year.

If those three return and with our stellar recruiting class, I like us as a preseason top 5 team. And if Flip is falling to the second round, let’s bring him back too.

I don’t think Duke NIL money can compete with NBA first round money, but I’d like to think it can entice all the rest to come back.

Yes, this is distasteful to us traditionalists - outright bidding for players. But we either have to do it, and do it well, or get out of the business and maybe join the Ivy League (not going to happen).

[mattyoung18]

I’m feeling that way too. Winning the ACCT was an amazing accomplishment, but UVA lost in the first round and Miami needed a big comeback to win and that was with Omier. Blowing out Pitt might have actually been our best performance of that week. Loved beating the CHeats twice but they were two close games against a team that clearly sucks. I’m happy with what the team accomplished this season, but when the dust settles we may just feel like we weren’t as good as we thought heading into the tourney.

Kenpom kept ranking Duke in the 20s even during our winning streak.I guess they knew something I didn't know.I felt like we were closing in on a top 10 ranking.I still thought we earned a better seed.But it doesnt help us now.

[proelitedota]

Kenpom kept ranking Duke in the 20s even during our winning streak.I guess they knew something I didn't know.I felt like we were closing in on a top 10 ranking.I still thought we earned a better seed.But it doesnt help us now.

According to Torvick we were top seven during our run.

[tommy]

Following on the discussion of our big man situation for next year, and the portal vs. “roll with what we have” issue, I think it boils down to this:

What has Jon seen at practice this year out of Christian Reeves? None of us know the answer to this. But it’s critical. He clearly was not ready to play meaningful minutes in games this year. But what’s he doing at practice? Is he showing enough signs of development and potential that Jon feels comfortable in counting on him next year and beyond to be a significant player for us such that we don’t need to go portaling for another big? Or no, he really is quite far away and we need to get someone in and if it means Reeves transfers out, then so be it ?

[Edouble]

It’s still your personal opinion. Proctor has not said that he is leaving.

Per my original post: Proctor was an absolute stud in the second half of the season and the second half of the Tennessee game. 18 years old, 6'5" 170 pound point guard who screams potential. He came up in a pro academy, played for the senior national team. His dad was a pro. One season at Duke completes the grooming process.

We are discussing who is likely to stay/go. My thoughts are based off of the evidence in front of us (above), not a need to "not getting (my) hopes up" as my post was in response to.

90%+ of the posts in this thread are opinion, but the previous poster implied that I was expressing my opinion as some sort of defense mechanism.

[simplyluvin]

Dream scenario: Flip, Proctor, and Mitchell come back. I’m still dreaming if only Proctor and Mitchell are back. In the latter we are a top 10 team.

Likely scenario: Mitchell comes back and we go to the portal for a starting center and a shooter. McCain seems to be a good 3pt threat, but I am worried about perimeter offense next year as well, so I hope Coach goes after a veteran shooter who ideally can handle the ball.

Roach coming back would be amazing and a key ingredient to a championship run, but there seems to be too much chatter on his moving on.

[Edouble]

All the guys you listed, save Duval and Steward, were consistently in the mock drafts. Every one. And then they got drafted. Proctor isn't.

There were more 5-star freshmen (Proctor was not, I might remind you) that stayed at Duke - prior to NIL - that weren't in the mock drafts and returned than there have been 5-stars that weren't being mocked to go pro that went anyway (just Duval and Steward). Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Chase Jeter, Marques Bolden, Tre Jones, Matthew Hurt, Jeremy Roach, Wendell Moore, and Mark Williams were all 5-stars that returned. Hardly any of them were in the mock drafts (you know, like Proctor) after their freshmen year. They returned for a sophomore year.

There were more 4-star or less players that stayed at Duke than that, guys like Jack White, Javin DeLaurier, Alex O'Connell, Jordan Goldwire, Joey Baker, and others. So just off the historical precedence (not a 5-star recruit out of high school and not in the mock drafts for upcoming NBA draft), it's better than 50/50 that Proctor returns.

Then you quote a mock draft for 2024 (you know, NEXT year), as evidence he is not coming back? That's illogical. That's evidence he IS coming back.

There is a lot of historical precedence that he will return. The only reason you could hold that he will leave this summer is that you hold this belief. There isn't a source outside of Duke or even a track record for Duke guys to support the position. I get it, you are trying to not feel hurt or not get your hopes up. I am the one being rational here.

I know that you know that Proctor was not 5 star b/c he reclassed.

You make a nice argument, that is flawed, IMO. None of those 4 star guys played significant minutes and/or started, and neither did half of the 5 stars. Proctor, as I noted in my first post, screams NBA prospect, in a way that someone like Hurt, Bolden, Jeter, Moore never did.

I'll just say that given Proctors background and season, he looks like he's set to make the jump, based on the history of what guys before him have done, many having done far less on the court, and/or offering far less potential. I guess you could call it a sort of post season eye test. For the record, and I don't have the posts to back it up, the only time I've been surprised at someone leaving or not leaving in the past 10-15 years were the departures of Steward and Jackson, so in my mind, I have a pretty good feel for who stays and who goes. For the most part if you are a "player", which Proctor is, you go pro.

Last thing I feel like doing today is arguing with other Duke fans. It's been a rough 24 hours. I consider my position the rational one, so we can agree to disagree. Go Devils!

[WHOneedsSOX]

I know that you know that Proctor was not 5 star b/c he reclassed.

You make a nice argument, that is flawed, IMO. None of those 4 star guys played significant minutes and/or started, and neither did half of the 5 stars. Proctor, as I noted in my first post, screams NBA prospect, in a way that someone like Hurt, Bolden, Jeter, Moore never did.

I'll just say that given Proctors background and season, he looks like he's set to make the jump, based on the history of what guys before him have done, many having done far less on the court, and/or offering far less potential. I guess you could call it a sort of post season eye test. For the record, and I don't have the posts to back it up, the only time I've been surprised at someone leaving or not leaving in the past 10-15 years were the departures of Steward and Jackson, so in my mind, I have a pretty good feel for who stays and who goes. For the most part if you are a "player", which Proctor is, you go pro.

Last thing I feel like doing today is arguing with other Duke fans. It's been a rough 24 hours. I consider my position the rational one, so we can agree to disagree. Go Devils!

There's no reason for Proctor to stay except for guaranteed money (higher draft position in 2024). He can develop just as well if not better in the NBA.

[AngolaDevil]

My small two cents:

Gone - Whitehead, Lively
75% Gone - Flip, Proctor
50% Gone - Roach, Mitchell
25% Gone - Schutt

Does anyone have the historical precedent for when these decisions have gone down in the past few seasons?

[bshrader]

My small two cents:

Gone - Whitehead, Lively
75% Gone - Flip, Proctor
50% Gone - Roach, Mitchell
25% Gone - Schutt

Does anyone have the historical precedent for when these decisions have gone down in the past few seasons?

As Scott mentioned earlier, I wouldn't expect any news until after the tournament is over to allow the guys maximum media exposure.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It’s still your personal opinion. Proctor has not said that he is leaving.

No one except Young has indicated anything about their intentions.

In other words - every single post regarding who is coming back is 100% opinion, conjecture, and guesses.

[proelitedota]

I know that you know that Proctor was not 5 star b/c he reclassed.

You make a nice argument, that is flawed, IMO.

There are two types of reclass. First type is the top NBA ready players who does it to get to the NBA faster, i.e. Bagley, Barret, GG Jackson, etc. The second type is so that they are given a chance to develop in college or the college needs them for an open spot, ie. Andre Dawkins, Derrick Thornton, Joey Baker, Proctor.

The latter usually stay multiple years. I would say precedence overwhelmingly points to Tyrese coming back for another year.

[kshepinthehouse]

There are two types of reclass. First type is the top NBA ready players who does it to get to the NBA faster, i.e. Bagley, Barret, GG Jackson, etc. The second type is so that they are given a chance to develop in college or the college needs them for an open spot, ie. Andre Dawkins, Derrick Thornton, Joey Baker, Proctor.

The latter usually stay multiple years. I would say precedence overwhelmingly points to Tyrese coming back for another year.

Except for the fact that Proctor has been on a fast track to the NBA his whole life. He's gone.

[proelitedota]

Except for the fact that Proctor has been on a fast track to the NBA his whole life. He's gone.

Everyone who goes to Duke as a 4/5 stars is on a fast track to the NBA their whole life. Lol.

If you guys want to have a pie bet about Proctor let's do it.

[kshepinthehouse]

Everyone who goes to Duke as a 4/5 stars is on a fast track to the NBA their whole life. Lol.

If you guys want to have a pie bet about Proctor let's do it.

Deal. I hope I lose!

[jv001]

Following on the discussion of our big man situation for next year, and the portal vs. “roll with what we have” issue, I think it boils down to this:

What has Jon seen at practice this year out of Christian Reeves? None of us know the answer to this. But it’s critical. He clearly was not ready to play meaningful minutes in games this year. But what’s he doing at practice? Is he showing enough signs of development and potential that Jon feels comfortable in counting on him next year and beyond to be a significant player for us such that we don’t need to go portaling for another big? Or no, he really is quite far away and we need to get someone in and if it means Reeves transfers out, then so be it ?

Your post made me think about the articles that mentioned Coach Jefferson working with Lively before practice and after practice. I wonder how much time he spent with Reeves? It's hard to imagine Amile didn't work with Reeves as well, but there just so many hours allowed by the corrupt NCAA.

GoDuke!

[kAzE]

Except for the fact that Proctor has been on a fast track to the NBA his whole life. He's gone.

Just curious, what makes you say this? I haven't followed him for very long, so I'm wondering if you know of any quotes form him or his family indicating his desire to jump to the pros as soon as possible.

Going pro and playing in the G-League would most likely allow him to develop his game just as quickly (if not more so) as staying at Duke, but the TV exposure, being the leader of a college team, and experience playing in high pressure games can only come at Duke. I think there's a good argument to be made that he should stay.

[dukejunkie]

Point of information for those citing age and reclassification for Proctor staying: he is 2 months younger than Lively and 4 months older than Whitehead. He might stay. However, all the talk this year that he should have been a senior in high school is bunk.

[lotusland]

I'm not worried so much about rim protection as having a 5 who can rebound, switch onto perimeter players, score in the low post, and stretch the floor.

Who are the greatest shotblockers in Duke history? Gman, Shelden, Mark, and Dereck. Zero titles and only two Final Fours.

Who were the rim protectors in 1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, and 2015? Battier comes the closest, but he was only 6'8", and blocked a lot of shots for his size, but I don't think he was a true rim protector.

If Flip comes back, he'd be a great big man, with relief from Ryan and Christian.

I agree wholeheartedly with this post. Reeves, Ryan and a stretch 4/5 gives us a lot of flexibility for situational lineups plus 15 fouls. Flip would be fantastic but Mitchell could also play some small ball 5.