Who Stays and Who Goes?

[UrinalCake]

I think what is likely to come into greater focus the next few weeks is that playing well against a very weak ACC made us overestimate both the overall team's standing nationally, but individual players as well.

I’m feeling that way too. Winning the ACCT was an amazing accomplishment, but UVA lost in the first round and Miami needed a big comeback to win and that was with Omier. Blowing out Pitt might have actually been our best performance of that week. Loved beating the CHeats twice but they were two close games against a team that clearly sucks. I’m happy with what the team accomplished this season, but when the dust settles we may just feel like we weren’t as good as we thought heading into the tourney.

[proelitedota]

I’m feeling that way too. Winning the ACCT was an amazing accomplishment, but UVA lost in the first round and Miami needed a big comeback to win and that was with Omier. Blowing out Pitt might have actually been our best performance of that week. Loved beating the CHeats twice but they were two close games against a team that clearly sucks. I’m happy with what the team accomplished this season, but when the dust settles we may just feel like we weren’t as good as we thought heading into the tourney.

You see, had Mitchell being available for the Tenn game I would agree with this.

We all know how Duke fares with and without it's full roster this season. Evey piece was crucial due to the complimenting roles and overall balance of talent.

I would say this post season was setup for us, and then it wasn't.

[Edouble]

I think the MOST pessimistic group should expect the following back:

Proctor, Mitchell, Young (has said so), Reeves, and at least one of Blakes/Schutt

Plus the 5 freshmen

That is 10-11 scholarship players with a need at the 5. I can't remember going into a season where the roster wasn't at least 80% clear at the end of the previous season. The closest situation was in 2016 when Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow somewhat unexpectedly went pro. Still, they got Thornton to reclassify. Really they just needed one guy to fill a hole at PG. There a Flip sized question mark for next year's roster. Otherwise, it looks pretty good.

Temper your expectations.

Proctor was an absolute stud in the second half of the season and the second half of the Tennessee game.

18 years old, 6'5" 170 pound point guard who screams potential. He came up in a pro academy, played for the senior national team. His dad was a pro. One season at Duke completes the grooming process.

My jaw would be on the floor if I saw him in a Duke uniform again.

[bshrader]

Temper your expectations.

Proctor was an absolute stud in the second half of the season and the second half of the Tennessee game.

18 years old, 6'5" 170 pound point guard who screams potential. He came up in a pro academy, played for the senior national team. His dad was a pro. One season at Duke completes the grooming process.

My jaw would be on the floor if I saw him in a Duke uniform again.

Except that I haven't seen him forecasted in any 1st round mocks and with the NIL packages that Duke could put together, coupled with next year looking to be a much weaker draft class, I don't think it's impossible we see him back for one more year.

[KandG]

You see, had Mitchell being available for the Tenn game I would agree with this.

We all know how Duke fares with and without it's full roster this season. Evey piece was crucial due to the complimenting roles and overall balance of talent.

I would say this post season was setup for us, and then it wasn't.

This is my assessment as well. I saw this team’s upside as an Elite Eight or Final Four team based on how our path looked, with the biggest reasons for optimism tied to our defensive profile (unicorn-level center on defense capable of staying with guards, very good perimeter defenders with height outside of Roach). Our defense looked optimized for tournament play, where limiting guard and wing play is so important.

But I was extremely surprised at the number of pundits that had us getting to the championship game or winning it all. I understand it may have been the open nature of the tournament and lack of dominant teams, but I always saw our offense as too limited to get us far, barring a dramatic step forward for one or more of the freshmen.

This evolved into a very talented group, but as I posted elsewhere, it isn’t close to the 2017, 18, 19 or 22 teams. Margin of error was razor thin, and it vanished with Michell’s injury.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Temper your expectations.

Proctor was an absolute stud in the second half of the season and the second half of the Tennessee game.

18 years old, 6'5" 170 pound point guard who screams potential. He came up in a pro academy, played for the senior national team. His dad was a pro. One season at Duke completes the grooming process.

My jaw would be on the floor if I saw him in a Duke uniform again.

I agree. I'm surprised so many people think Proctor is coming back. Even before his big leap in his play I thought he was leaving. The last two months only solidifies that. I understand that he's not in any mock drafts and could be a potential lottery pick next season but this wants to get to the NBA. Some team will give him a promise of a 2nd round pick. Or even better for him he can sign with someone as undrafted and go to the ideal spot for him.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I'm assuming you mean that all 6 in question leave, 2 of 3 from Reeves, Schutt and Blakes transfer?

I don't like discussing my pessimistic thoughts. I'm just noting that some folks here seem to have very little creativity when imagining worst-case scenarios for our roster next year.

[lotusland]

Lively is a great defender but TN made us play 4-5 on offense by not guarding him when he set screens and not allowing any lobs. It’s possible that a team Duke could easily beat will beat TN because they have a 5 who can score over post defenders or hit open shots. It’s all about matchups and we were beaten down low by 4-5 rotating thugs vs Lively. Flip was effective in lane against their D but he played 38 minutes and understandably had tired legs = 0-6 from 3.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Temper your expectations.

Proctor was an absolute stud in the second half of the season and the second half of the Tennessee game.

18 years old, 6'5" 170 pound point guard who screams potential. He came up in a pro academy, played for the senior national team. His dad was a pro. One season at Duke completes the grooming process.

My jaw would be on the floor if I saw him in a Duke uniform again.

You have to admit that it is your personal point of view that Proctor is going pro this summer. He hasn't been consistently listed in mock drafts. He didn't play a full season at his NBA position, PG, this year. He is not an elite athlete for the NBA and wasn't a knock-down shooter. Hardly anybody that does mock drafts or covers the NBA has been talking about Proctor. There just isn't an outside source that tells us he is going pro. Believing he will go pro right now is a personal belief. The same applies to Mitchell. You just have to believe this for whatever - not getting your hopes up, managing expectations, etc. Everything the player has said this year, the recruiting strategy, and people outside the Duke sphere point in the opposite direction. Even history suggests a better than 50/50 chance he returns. Yes, some players that were not 1st round locks have gone pro. But a lot haven't. I choose to look at all the information we have available.

[dyedwab]

1) Until a player says he's staying, I assume he's leaving. So right now, our roster is Ryan Young and bunch of incoming freshman.

2) I can not prove this but, I think that Duke's reputation as a NBA one-and-done program leads to the psychology among many players that if the AREN'T one-and-done, that they have somehow failed. It strikes me that this leads to some decisions about leaving that raise eyebrows.

3) Because of salary-slotting for NBA rookies, if one can work up from a late 1st rounder/2nd rounder to late lottery by staying an extra year, the rookie contract would overcome the salary lost by not playing the the NBA for that one year. (In other words, a late-lottery contract from the 2024 draft makes enough more than a late 1st round contract from the 2023 that it overcomes the lost salary from 2023.

4) It may be true for a few players that they CAN improve their draft status like that - Mark Mitchell is the most likely among our players to fit in this category. (Trevor Keels was one of those players last year)

5) Previously, almost all players in this category left early, but with Rachel Baker and NIL, I'm hoping that Duke can change some of these calculations

6) I worry A LOT more about transfers than I do about early-entry at this point, given Scheyer's stated desire to recruit have fewer freshman AND the fact that if we are competing for the best HS players in the country, they will inevitably be one-and-done types.

7) We have already embarked upon changing our recruitment profile BUT we haven't yet succeeded. The cautionary tale is the COVID-year team with Jaemyn Brakefield and Henry Colemam, both of whom were expected to be multi-year players, but transeferred after one year. That is my (at this point) unfounded fear re: Schutt, Reeves, amd Blakes

8) I've always believed that players get better over the off-season, but, I would argue that Duke has been much better at recruiting elite talent than having players develop into elite talent. Given Scheyer's expressed desire about roster construction, putting a premium on talent-development within the program should be a heightened priority. We need to be able to recruit player who aren't yet NBA ready, but could be, by prioritizing a program of developing them

9) I always hate the time after Duke's terminal loss in the season, but I hate it even more now, as it feels like it extens for a month as the entire roster decides whether they are putting in another year. Nothing to do about it, but it just isn't any fun.

[Maged]

i don't know exactly how NIL works but if Duke would focus its efforts at getting Proctor and Mitchell back, that would be the best combination for next year. A point guard and a "glue guy" front court player, both of whom will undoubtedly improve tremendously between now and November.

[jipops]

This is 100% not happening, but I would love to have Lively back just to see Kathy back in the stands.

[Reddevil]

Okay, this is an admittedly lazy question. When will we know for sure the answer to the title of this post? I mean what is the cut off date for declaring? Sorry, but my research lately involves asking Alexa, and I am guessing someone here just knows about when this is. On second thought Alexa says April 22nd. True? I don't trust her.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Okay, this is an admittedly lazy question. When will we know for sure the answer to the title of this post? I mean what is the cut off date for declaring? Sorry, but my research lately involves asking Alexa, and I am guessing someone here just knows about when this is. On second thought Alexa says April 22nd. True? I don't trust her.

Scroll up. There's the declaration date that you found, but also the "pull your name from the draft" date about a month later.

It's a lengthy watch if you care to stay glued to it.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

i don't know exactly how NIL works but if Duke would focus its efforts at getting Proctor and Mitchell back, that would be the best combination for next year. A point guard and a "glue guy" front court player, both of whom will undoubtedly improve tremendously between now and November.

I know this has been discussed elsewhere, but what are the rules for Proctor with NIL. I thought there were restrictions on NIL for foreign players but I also thought I read that he had a deal with a local restaurant. I know schools have found ways around this so I’m sure Duke could figure it out but I am curious.

[Edouble]

You have to admit that it is your personal point of view that Proctor is going pro this summer. He hasn't been consistently listed in mock drafts. He didn't play a full season at his NBA position, PG, this year. He is not an elite athlete for the NBA and wasn't a knock-down shooter. Hardly anybody that does mock drafts or covers the NBA has been talking about Proctor. There just isn't an outside source that tells us he is going pro. Believing he will go pro right now is a personal belief. The same applies to Mitchell. You just have to believe this for whatever - not getting your hopes up, managing expectations, etc. Everything the player has said this year, the recruiting strategy, and people outside the Duke sphere point in the opposite direction. Even history suggests a better than 50/50 chance he returns. Yes, some players that were not 1st round locks have gone pro. But a lot haven't. I choose to look at all the information we have available.

No I will not admit that. Not being listed on a mock draft board is not an indicator that a player will stay. I'm going off of historical precedence: Cassius, Trevon, DJ, Keels, Frank, Vernon etc etc

In fact, Proctor being listed as 10 on '24 big board is only further evidence he's seen as a solid pro prospect and will probably leave Duke this spring.

I'd challenge you to present some evidence that there is a 50/50 chance Proctor returns. Didn't play a "full season" at point guard? C'mon man. You're really reaching to find an argument here.

[Hartford Dukie]

Okay, this is an admittedly lazy question. When will we know for sure the answer to the title of this post? I mean what is the cut off date for declaring? Sorry, but my research lately involves asking Alexa, and I am guessing someone here just knows about when this is. On second thought Alexa says April 22nd. True? I don't trust her.

For what appears clear from elsewhere, we are going to know very soon what every starter plus Whitehead's plans are. Give it ten days and if nothing is out from our players, then come back to worrying about deadlines.

[Dukehky]

Scroll up. There's the declaration date that you found, but also the "pull your name from the draft" date about a month later.

It's a lengthy watch if you care to stay glued to it.

I don't expect this to take too terribly long.

I think Jon learned from getting caught in a bind with how long Trevor took last year. Not ever going to force a kid out, but I think declaring for the draft means you're all in, and you're not coming back, so Duke is not going to wait on you.

These guys don't need to go through the process to make their determination, they have ample knowledge of where they are likely to get drafted. If you go to the combine or go through the process with the hopes of improving your stock, it means you think you have such significant stock that you're going to go anyway.

I don't mean that in a negative way. But, like, I don't think Flip is going to, or needs, to take 3 weeks to go to team workouts and figure out what he's going to do. He's going to make a decision, and keep moving. Same with Proctor.

IMO, I think Proctor, Flip, and Mitchell all come back. I think there's an outside chance Lively does. I think Roach is going to get his diploma in May and move on, and I think Whitehead can't risk another series of injuries next year. Enough scouts saw his shooting and still rely on his high school tape regarding his athleticism.

Lively got to be really famous towards the back half of this year. Has a great attitude, smile, etc. I think there's some real NIL opportunities for that guy. I think with the weak draft class next year, a full year working on his offensive game, and getting stronger, there's a real argument he goes in the lottery, whereas this year he'd be in the back half of the first round. Not saying I think he comes back, but think that is a solid case for thinking about it. Again, not really something extensive feedback is going to help him do. He's just going to make a decision and roll with it.

[MChambers]

The issue is that if Young/Reeves/Stewart is our 5 next year, rim protection is a major question mark. Guard driven offense might work, but then we have our next problem which is if both Roach and Proctor are gone, we are relying on freshman guards (Schutt and Blakes are not guys to lead an offense). Perimeter defense with freshman guards also will make for some serious growing pains.

Reality is we NEED one of Proctor or Roach back AND Flip back to support the 5 position. Without that talent returning expecting the portal to solve the gaps is asking for too much. The additional question also of whether we risk Reeves and/or Schutt leaving because we go to the portal and throw the continuity aspiration out the window.

Let's pray for some returning players!

I'm not worried so much about rim protection as having a 5 who can rebound, switch onto perimeter players, score in the low post, and stretch the floor.

Who are the greatest shotblockers in Duke history? Gman, Shelden, Mark, and Dereck. Zero titles and only two Final Fours.

Who were the rim protectors in 1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, and 2015? Battier comes the closest, but he was only 6'8", and blocked a lot of shots for his size, but I don't think he was a true rim protector.

If Flip comes back, he'd be a great big man, with relief from Ryan and Christian.

[DavidBenAkiva]

No I will not admit that. Not being listed on a mock draft board is not an indicator that a player will stay. I'm going off of historical precedence: Cassius, Trevon, DJ, Keels, Frank, Vernon etc etc

In fact, Proctor being listed as 10 on '24 big board is only further evidence he's seen as a solid pro prospect and will probably leave Duke this spring.

I'd challenge you to present some evidence that there is a 50/50 chance Proctor returns. Didn't play a "full season" at point guard? C'mon man. You're really reaching to find an argument here.

All the guys you listed, save Duval and Steward, were consistently in the mock drafts. Every one. And then they got drafted. Proctor isn't.

There were more 5-star freshmen (Proctor was not, I might remind you) that stayed at Duke - prior to NIL - that weren't in the mock drafts and returned than there have been 5-stars that weren't being mocked to go pro that went anyway (just Duval and Steward). Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Chase Jeter, Marques Bolden, Tre Jones, Matthew Hurt, Jeremy Roach, Wendell Moore, and Mark Williams were all 5-stars that returned. Hardly any of them were in the mock drafts (you know, like Proctor) after their freshmen year. They returned for a sophomore year.

There were more 4-star or less players that stayed at Duke than that, guys like Jack White, Javin DeLaurier, Alex O'Connell, Jordan Goldwire, Joey Baker, and others. So just off the historical precedence (not a 5-star recruit out of high school and not in the mock drafts for upcoming NBA draft), it's better than 50/50 that Proctor returns.

Then you quote a mock draft for 2024 (you know, NEXT year), as evidence he is not coming back? That's illogical. That's evidence he IS coming back.

There is a lot of historical precedence that he will return. The only reason you could hold that he will leave this summer is that you hold this belief. There isn't a source outside of Duke or even a track record for Duke guys to support the position. I get it, you are trying to not feel hurt or not get your hopes up. I am the one being rational here.