While he doesn't meet the criteria of being undrafted since he got drafted 37th by the Kings in 2018, Gary Trent Jr. is an example of someone who definitely made the right decision on betting on himself and going to the NBA instead of returning to Duke.
I remember a lot of DBR members were upset that Trent didn't come back to Duke for his soph year and join the Zion, Barrett and Reddish freshman class but his dad wanted him to go pro and its clear another year at Duke wouldn't have helped his draft stock.
His stats wouldn't have gotten much better playing with high usage players like Barrett and Zion.
Now do I think his return would've helped Duke's chances to win in 2019? Absolutely, I think he was the missing piece due to his shooting and wing defense.
It sucks for Duke fans but luckily for him he prioritized himself first after consulting his parents, the coaching staff, etc.
No my point or question was the value of staying at Duke for a few years versus OAD, to a marginal NBA player in terms if their post basketball career? Amile is a perfect example. Had Amile decided to take his shot in the G league right after his freshman year, would he be on the Duke staff today? Or on the Northwestern staff (if he played for Chris)? Amile played so many games on TV for Duke that people probably remember his name and face in a Duke uniform. Presumably he also forged deeper relationship with the staff and possibly the alumni base. Is that added value a legit factor to consider for a marginal player?
I disagree. I think they are hoping to get drafted, failing that signing a free agent contract with an NBA team, and failing that, take an overseas deal.
I don't want to come across that I'm claiming playing overseas is a failure, I never said that once. That said, whether a player "knows" that they're playing overseas, they're going to prefer being drafted and they'll take an NBA free agent deal over an overseas deal should that opportunity present itself.
Of course, but this conversation started when you said that without a clear path to "the pros" staying in college is the safer bet. You clarified that "the pros" does not include overseas. I think that makes the assertion wrong. Someone who is destined for a career overseas may be better off starting that career earlier. It's certainly not obvious that staying in college is somehow "safer"
Then thats my fault, I didn't make my question clear. Actually I want to know if it "safer" for player to stay in college. This is the scenario I envision.
1. You come in a fairly high rated recruit.
2. You have a decent freshman campaign, but you didn't blow anyone away in terms of scoring ability or athleticism, in short, there isn't anything that immediately translates to NBA success at this specific moment.
3. Mock drafts have you as a borderline 2nd rounder or free agent.
4. It is most likely you end up playing professional basketball overseas (again, not bad, but not your first choice).
The question is, is there data that suggests that player who fits that sort of profile, do they actually help their NBA chances by returning to play in college? Some believe in say, Trevor Keels position, he would have improved his draft stock by returning to Duke. granted his career isn't done but he seems to best check that box. On the other hand, you have someone like Matthew Hurt who returned for his sophomore year but was not drafted and didn't make an NBA team (IIRC). Its not clear if he came back as a jr or even a sr that it would have helped his NBA prospects at all.
As I said before, there is no one size fits all example, but Im pretty sure there is enough data over the past decade of early entries to get an idea. Also I wonder if the players who are weighing these decisions have access to that data.
I think in general guys who are limited by their measurables don’t improve their standing a lot unless they happen to hit a weird growth spurt. The players who move up are the Wendell Moore’s and Mark Williams’ who already have the measureables but are able to polish their game with the extra year.
Keels was probably a little of both. He’s always going to be a below-the-rim player. If he had come back to Duke and displayed an elite 3-point shot? Maybe that could have moved him up. But it would have had to be a dramatic improvement.
I recall reading that Bob Hurley had Bobby's team practice in Strength Shoes in high school, so I bought a pair. I used them summer between freshman and sophomore year of high school, and added about 6-7 inches to my vertical and could dunk after two months and maybe 40 workouts.
I couldnt find a link for the old school version I had but this is on Amazon today -
https://www.amazon.com/Jump99-Ultra-.../dp/B0871P7HH3
Good news coming
Grant Hill is exceptional in [checks notes] every way imaginable. Of course, he didn’t get there by himself, but he is still exceptional, even in the context of an institution like Duke that is filled with exceptional people.
The ACC was really lucky to have people like Hill and Duncan stay 4 years. And I am sure that both of them would say they were lucky for how they developed over those four years, before they went on to have successful professional careers.
I wonder if *any* talent like Hill or Timmy would stay in college for 4 years these day.
Carolina delenda est