MBB: Duke v Tenn (Sat 3/18, 2:40, CBS) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[knicknut]

A few metrics per Torvik:

Full season - TN is 4; Duke is 18
Since Feb. 1 - TN is 32; Duke is 11
Since Feb. 16 (i.e., last month) - TN is 23; Duke is 2

Vegas puts us as a 3 point favorite, ~57% win probability, which is more aligned with the last month to six weeks than over the whole season.

[FastBreak]

Who would you take right now on your team? Sophomore Mark Williams or the current Lively? I'm taking Lively. His presence on defense seems more game altering than Williams - and he was pretty game altering.

This starting 5 is playing great defense of course. Last year's team had an incredible defense, but had some vulnerabilities on defense that ultimately cost us the FF game. Feeling good about our chances...

[indy1duke]

It seems to me that Tennessee will struggle to score against Duke’s defense. According to their team stats they don’t shoot the 3 well. It looks to be a physical game. I hope the refs call the constant contact we are likely to see from Tenn. The other obvious stat that pops out is the number of players that Barnes will throw out at us. Nine guys get 10 minutes or more. Their lead guard Vescovi gets almost 33 minutes. After that a bunch of guys get around 25 minutes.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Blue jerseys tomorrow?

How about the dark Brotherhood jerseys?

[DukieInBrasil]

Forcing turnovers has not been one of our strengths but I would love if we could capitalize on their lack of PG by generating some easy buckets out of runouts. Unfortunately our fast break execution has not been great either. I expect this to be a tough game, TN was a top-5 overall team for a chunk of the season before the injury, but we are on such a roll right now that if we play our game I think we can come out with a W.

I don't Abmas's reputation as a ball-handler, but Roach was really up in his grill, and got his hand on the ball forcing him to pick up the ball or stop an attempted pass on a few occasions. Proctor as well was very disruptive vs ORU's guards. I have confidence that Duke's perimeter defense will make life very hard on UT's already struggling offense.
As others have made their mantra, Duke's success will be dictated by limiting turnovers and offensive rebounding. Our defense is consistently very good, so even just basic competence on offense can be a recipe for success.

[MarkD83]

I brought this up on the announcer thread and wanted to add it here as a more appropriate place...

This of course touches on something that we have only done once or twice in pre-game threads (and I plan to suggest it in the TN thread). What is the scouting report that an ORU or TN fan board would post about Duke...

1. Duke will take away your first and perhaps second options on offense.
2. Don't drive the lane unless you go very strong or Lively will block your shot.
3. Block out, block out, block out or we will get killed on the boards.
4. Very balanced offense from outside and inside so don't fall asleep on D

[UrinalCake]

Who would you take right now on your team? Sophomore Mark Williams or the current Lively? I'm taking Lively. His presence on defense seems more game altering than Williams - and he was pretty game altering.

I had a similar thought which I brought up in the postgame thread. Lively is better at defending on the perimeter, which is something we had heard about him in high school but hadn't really seen up until recently. I will say that Jon's defensive scheme is better at keeping Lively close to the basket whereas K's switch-everything style had Williams defending guards one on one at the three point line more often. Lively is really good at blocking a shot and keeping it in bounds or even directing it right at a teammate, whereas Williams would volleyball spike the crap out of the ball and take away the shooter's soul. Williams had more offense, he would occasionally post up and make a move to get a bucket and he could hit the short jump shot too. It's a tough call and I'm not going to choose between them but will just say they are both awesome and we are incredibly lucky to have had them in consecutive seasons.

[duke2x]

Odds are every game going forward will be against a higher seed. However many that is.

Don't assume we beat TN. Rick Barnes and a blind squirrel have a lot in common.
Don't assume chalk in this bracket. I like the odds of KY and MSU beating KSU and Marquette if the games happen.

[House P]

A few metrics per Torvik:

Full season - TN is 4; Duke is 18
Since Feb. 1 - TN is 32; Duke is 11
Since Feb. 16 (i.e., last month) - TN is 23; Duke is 2

One additional point:
Through Jan 31: TN was 1, Duke was 32

Had this game been played on Feb 1, Tenn would have been a 9-10 point favorite per Torvik.

[wavedukefan70s]

Don't assume we beat TN. Rick Barnes and a blind squirrel have a lot in common.
Don't assume chalk in this bracket. I like the odds of KY and MSU beating KSU and Marquette if the games happen.

Barnes loves bruiser ball if I remember correctly.
Every team is lethal since the one and done era. More so now than in the past.
What is it with Barnes and orange teams.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Don't you love this? Being the hunter, not the hunted? Going into each game knowing that we are underdogs, at least on paper? Saying "I really think these guys could pull this off" instead of "I hope we don't screw this up?" Could all end Saturday. But won't jinx us by saying what I think will actually happen.

Honestly, after all the insane pressure of last year... Absolutely.

[SouthernDukie]

Don't assume we beat TN. Rick Barnes and a blind squirrel have a lot in common.
Don't assume chalk in this bracket. I like the odds of KY and MSU beating KSU and Marquette if the games happen.

I agree on both counts (although I think Marquette probably advances to the Elite Eight).

As for Tennessee, I'm certainly not counting any eggs beforehand. They will be a tough out, even with the injury to Zeigler. They are big and our inside presence with Lively and Flip may be somewhat negated by their height/strength. It for sure won't be as easy as we had it with ORU. Just hoping our outside shooting is solid because if it is, we will win. Well, that and not coughing the ball up to much. As a third point, we can't let them beat us up on the boards. Shouldn't happen, but you never know.

[cato]

Did we not play even one higher seed in our 2010 run?

Edit. Strike that. We were number one seed and I didn’t even remember that.

How in the world were we the #1 seed when we were so ‘alarmingly unathletic’? Funny how the memory plays tricks on you.

Maybe some late season results showed the committee the potential of the team. There was one that stuck in my memory. 82-50 was the final score, I believe.

[ns7]

Maybe some late season results showed the committee the potential of the team. There was one that stuck in my memory. 82-50 was the final score, I believe.

Duke was also #1 overall in KenPom on Selection Sunday. That team won every major title possible that season; a very special team.

[dukelion]

All things considered it's a pretty good match-up for us.

The Vols turned it over 17 times last night and struggle to initiate offense...they're clearly missing their point guard.

They also rely on OR but doubt they've seen the length that Duke will counter with.

Of course they could get hot from 3 and force us into a bunch of TOs as well but I like our chances.

[MChambers]

Who would you take right now on your team? Sophomore Mark Williams or the current Lively? I'm taking Lively. His presence on defense seems more game altering than Williams - and he was pretty game altering.

This starting 5 is playing great defense of course. Last year's team had an incredible defense, but had some vulnerabilities on defense that ultimately cost us the FF game. Feeling good about our chances...

I'd take Lively every time. As our coach says, he's a defensive unicorn.

[simplyluvin]

Tennessee looks like a team playing without a PG because they are. The loss of Zeigler (torn ACL) a couple of weekends ago really shows. They lack guard play but are are a big team and very tough on offense. They force a lot of turnovers but also cough up the ball a lot. They struggle to shoot the ball. Their defacto PG 6'3" SR Santiago Vescovi is the only one on the team with a 3P% above 33%. He is a smart player but not particularly athletic. Most of his shots come from behind the arc. Tennessee is a great offensive rebounding team, so keeping them from getting second and third shot attempts will be key. They are just frustrating to play, tough to score against, and play a slow tempo. Without Zeigler, they are like a more extreme version of Virginia, better on defense but worse on offense. It will be a rock fight.

Completely agree that the Vols are tougher on D than the Hoos. UVA has great D in their system, but the Vols have atheticism, quickness, and length which causes problems. I think this game will be reminiscent of the Texas Tech game last year. They had the #1 D in the country, and we came out pretty jittery. Coach even said we were nervous. (Hope Flip has nerves of steel going forward.) In the second half we were more patient and deliberate, and going to zone hurt their rhythm in that game.

They really miss ZZ, so we mainly need to be patient. Rebound and treasure the ball, and we should be fine.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Tennessee has taken a step back across as a team since the end of January. According to T-Rank, the Vols are the #30 team in the nation since 1/31 and have a 6-7 record. Some of this coincides with losing Zeigler, their PG.

Before 1/31 (18-3):
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.7 (31st)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 81.7 (1st)
BARTHAG (overall ranking): .9736 (1st)
Effective FG%-Offense: 51.5 (120th)
Effective FG%-Defense: 39.1 (1st)
Turnover Rate-Offense: 19.3 (236th)
Turnover Rate-Defense: 24.6 (9th)
Offensive Rebound Rate-Offense: 38.5 (2nd)
Offensive Rebound Rate-Defense: 28.0 (151st)
Free Throw Rate-Offense: 32.5 (134th)
Free Throw Rate-Defense: 33.4 (237th)
2P%-Offense: 52.0 (99th)
2P%-Defense: 43.5 (12th)
3P%-Offense: 33.8 (177th)
3P%-Defense: 22.0 (1st)

From 1/31 to Present (6-7)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 108.9 (105th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 91.5 (9th)
BARTHAG (overall ranking): .8815 (30)
Effective FG%-Offense: 48.4 (267th)
Effective FG%-Defense: 48.1 (64th)
Turnover Rate-Offense: 16.9 (150th)
Turnover Rate-Defense: 17.9 (136th)
Offensive Rebound Rate-Offense: 33.3 (48th)
Offensive Rebound Rate-Defense: 24.4 (50th)
Free Throw Rate-Offense: 29.2 (237th)
Free Throw Rate-Defense: 35.9 (283rd)
2P%-Offense: 49.7 (205th)
2P%-Defense: 46.3 (41st)
3P%-Offense: 31.0 (295th)
3P%-Defense: 33.8 (155th)

Zeilger was a pest on defense, very fast, very quick with his hands and able to strip the ball. The 3P% defense has really suffered without him. The defense is still pretty good without him, but the offense is really struggling. The number for TN without Zeigler are even worse if you change the timeframe to the end of February. That's a small sample size, of course, but the team looks lost on offense without him. There were so many passes to no one against Louisiana last night. They clearly miss having a steady hand to help setup plays.

Duke is going to need to hit some jumpers in this one. The Tennessee frontcourt is big and strong. Plavsic (7'1" and very, very sturdy), Aidoo (6'11), and Nkamhoua (6'9") are all capable interior defenders. They crash the offensive boards very well as a team. Their guards are not the most dynamic and quite thin. Vescovi is the only one that poses a credible threat from deep. I think neutralizing him is one of the main defensive strategies Duke can employ. The grad transfer, 6'2" Tyreke Key, is overmatched against Proctor and Roach. The only other guard that plays is 6'4" SO Jahmai Mashack. He's a defense-first kind of guy with an inconsistent jumper and has been very turnover prone of late with added playmaking responsibilities. I think the goal here will be to force Vescovi to give up the ball and then feast on their mistakes. Vescovi is the only guard that can offer a steadying influence on their team right now.

On offense, Duke is going to have to make jumpers. Whitehead appears to be dialed in from deep. Since coming back from the leg injury he sustained against VT, Whitehead is hitting an incredible 52.9% from 3. The team needs him, Roach, Proctor, and Grandison to hit from 3. Tennessee is very good rebounding team so Duke can't rely on getting 35% or better of their misses. I'd like to see Whitehead be a difference maker in this one. He seems to excel in one-on-one defense matchups and gets a good number of strips. His handle has been sloppy, to say the least, so it would be nice if he doesn't turn it over just as often as he creates fast break opportunities for Duke.

One other advantage that Duke has is that Tennessee, perhaps by virtue of their depth, sends the other team to the FT line a lot. Duke is a very good FT shooting team. That can be a double-edged sword if the team isn't making its FTs. So I hope the team is ready to take and make their FTs at a high rate.

Both teams like to grind it out on defense and play a low tempo. I don't think either team will crack 70 points in this one and I assume the first to reach 50 points will feel good about their chances of winning.

[WillJ]

I'd take Lively every time. As our coach says, he's a defensive unicorn.

Perhaps K's scheme let Mark W get isolated on the perimeter more than Scheyer's would have if implemented last year, but boy did Mark get roasted a lot last year when taken away from the basket. Lively is *much* better in those situations.

[CasualObserver]

Hopefully, on the intangible side, our handling of ORU gets rid of the tournament jitters, and increases our ability to play confidently, with less ‘rushing’ against a now slower paced team. Conversely, TN can’t pragmatically improve guard play one game to the next and their sloppiness last night continues to erode confidence on their side. As the lovable Kenny Smith says, NCAAT success is all about guard play.