Tar Heels off-season thread

[rsvman]

Personally, I was thrilled hearing that Hubris has Cadeau coming in this upcoming season versus the following one. I don’t believe having Cadeau and Davis sharing the ball is gonna keep everyone happy on that team. Not to mention their defense, with those two small guys defending our length when we play them. Hell yeah!!!

I haven't checked their boards lately, but I'm 95% sure that they are likely ecstatic with this announcement. They are likely saying that Cadeau was the one and only missing piece, and the only thing they needed to make a run at the final four and maybe even the national championship. I am hoping that they are entirely wrong (as they usually are), but I don't see Cadeau's reclassification and signing as a good thing for us.

[azzefkram]

Cadeau is a really good reclass for the Heels. He is an elite PG. Yes, defense could be a problem, but adding a player with top-tier court vision is a huge add. With Cadeau on the team next year, UNC should really suck. Why? Because they always suck. It is in their nature to suck. Suckitude is woven into the very fabric of their beings.

[JasonEvans]

I haven't checked their boards lately, but I'm 95% sure that they are likely ecstatic with this announcement. They are likely saying that Cadeau was the one and only missing piece, and the only thing they needed to make a run at the final four and maybe even the national championship. I am hoping that they are entirely wrong (as they usually are), but I don't see Cadeau's reclassification and signing as a good thing for us.

Yeah, I hate to be a Debbie Downer but I agree with rsv that this makes the Heels a better club. There are absolutely some fit issues that Carolina will have to figure out and they could have some trouble on D with a small backcourt, but a guy like Cadeau makes everyone around him better and he's probably going to mean an extra 6-8 easy points per game for the Heels... that's a big deal!

[scottdude8]

Yeah, I hate to be a Debbie Downer but I agree with rsv that this makes the Heels a better club. There are absolutely some fit issues that Carolina will have to figure out and they could have some trouble on D with a small backcourt, but a guy like Cadeau makes everyone around him better and he's probably going to mean an extra 6-8 easy points per game for the Heels... that's a big deal!

Yeah, in hindsight I think my front page article may have more of a negative tone then I meant it to, haha. Cadeau certainly ups the ceiling for this year's UNC squad, and undoubtedly makes them more talented. But, I think his presence also increases the possibility for another messy year... how much so is up for debate, but I think it's certainly a higher probability than it was two days ago. Roles that were clear in the locker room are suddenly unclear; how he and Davis co-exist is a major question mark; how they defend is now a HUGE question mark (and arguably already was with the loss of Black, who covered up many defensive issues with his excellent play last year).

However, if I were a betting man, I would wager that Hubert would've preferred Cadeau stay in 2024 for many of the reasons I outlined. That doesn't mean they're worse with him on the team by any means, just that maybe this wasn't Option A in Chapel Hill.

[jv001]

Yeah, in hindsight I think my front page article may have more of a negative tone then I meant it to, haha. Cadeau certainly ups the ceiling for this year's UNC squad, and undoubtedly makes them more talented. But, I think his presence also increases the possibility for another messy year... how much so is up for debate, but I think it's certainly a higher probability than it was two days ago. Roles that were clear in the locker room are suddenly unclear; how he and Davis co-exist is a major question mark; how they defend is now a HUGE question mark (and arguably already was with the loss of Black, who covered up many defensive issues with his excellent play last year).

However, if I were a betting man, I would wager that Hubert would've preferred Cadeau stay in 2024 for many of the reasons I outlined. That doesn't mean they're worse with him on the team by any means, just that maybe this wasn't Option A in Chapel Hill.

I guess we'll see just how good a coach Hubert is this coming season. Will he be the FF type coach two seasons ago or will he be the "missed the tourney" coach of last season. I figure somewhere in between.

GoDuke!

[peloton]

Cadeau is a really good reclass for the Heels. He is an elite PG. Yes, defense could be a problem, but adding a player with top-tier court vision is a huge add. With Cadeau on the team next year, UNC should really suck. Why? Because they always suck. It is in their nature to suck. Suckitude is woven into the very fabric of their beings.

I like the way you think.

[dlmzzz]

I guess we'll see just how good a coach Hubert is this coming season. Will he be the FF type coach two seasons ago or will he be the "missed the tourney" coach of last season. I figure somewhere in between.

GoDuke!

This was answered up above.

UNC should really suck. Why? Because they always suck. It is in their nature to suck. Suckitude is woven into the very fabric of their beings.

[SouthernDukie]

Cadeau is a really good reclass for the Heels. He is an elite PG. Yes, defense could be a problem, but adding a player with top-tier court vision is a huge add. With Cadeau on the team next year, UNC should really suck. Why? Because they always suck. It is in their nature to suck. Suckitude is woven into the very fabric of their beings.

Except when they play us in the FF. Or did we all just wipe that unpleasant experience from our collective memory?

Look, no one here hates the Heels more than I do. But I still think we need to be careful about jumping on their grave prematurely. They've gone from looking at a pretty bad season next year to a surprisingly optimistic one.

[MChambers]

Except when they play us in the FF. Or did we all just wipe that unpleasant experience from our collective memory?

Look, no one here hates the Heels more than I do. But I still think we need to be careful about jumping on their grave prematurely. They've gone from looking at a pretty bad season next year to a surprisingly optimistic one.

They're still gonna suck, because they are UNC.

[roywhite]

What does the rotation look like for the 23-24 Heels? Who starts beside Bacot, Davis, and Cadeau?

[DavidBenAkiva]

What does the rotation look like for the 23-24 Heels? Who starts beside Bacot, Davis, and Cadeau?

My guess is Harrison Ingram starts for sure and one of Cormac Ryan or Jae'lyn Withers. Ryan would give them more offensive versatility but might result in a porous defensive pairing with their two too-small guards. Withers has a better shooting percentage than Ryan from 3 but is not necessarily a shot creator and is a bit of an adventure on defense in his own way.

No matter what, 3 of their starters will be new to the team this year. As many as 5 of the top 7 rotation could also be new to Chapel Hill. Team defense is going to be one of the first things I would worry about them if I were interested in seeing them succeed. Since I don't care for that, I look forward to many high-scoring affairs in the Dean Dome this season.

[UrinalCake]

Is anybody on their roster a plus defender?

[DavidBenAkiva]

Is anybody on their roster a plus defender?

That is my biggest question for them. And then there is the team defense issue. If they don't have an individual plus defender, how do they expect to form a cohesive team defense with so many new faces?

[JasonEvans]

Is anybody on their roster a plus defender?

I mean, one could ask if anybody on their roster is considered an even average defender...

I suppose Bacot is average, mostly based on his stellar rebounding. He doesn't get destroyed in the PnR and can block a shot every now and then. RJ has a rep as a fairly poor defender. So does Ryan. Withers has never really stood out on that end of the floor. I don't know much about Ingram as he played at Stanford and I have not heard much about him since he was a touted high school recruit (though not one touted for his D). Cadeau is a mystery... though his size would seem to work against him in that regard and it is pretty rare for a freshman guard to stand out on the defensive end of the floor.

When you consider that so many of their top players are new to Chapel Hill -- and defense is something you learn by playing together -- I think it is not very likely that Carolina will be a top 40 D this coming season.

[dlmzzz]

I mean, one could ask if anybody on their roster is considered an even average defender...

I suppose Bacot is average, mostly based on his stellar rebounding. He doesn't get destroyed in the PnR and can block a shot every now and then. RJ has a rep as a fairly poor defender. So does Ryan. Withers has never really stood out on that end of the floor. I don't know much about Ingram as he played at Stanford and I have not heard much about him since he was a touted high school recruit (though not one touted for his D). Cadeau is a mystery... though his size would seem to work against him in that regard and it is pretty rare for a freshman guard to stand out on the defensive end of the floor.

When you consider that so many of their top players are new to Chapel Hill -- and defense is something you learn by playing together -- I think it is not very likely that Carolina will be a top 40 D this coming season.

From evanmiya.com, here are the DBPR ratings for some the key players last year. 0 is the average across all college players (all the way through the benchwarmers on bad teams):
Davis 0.79
Bacot 0.78
Ingram 0.47
Ryan 0.11
Withers -0.02


For comparison:
Flip 2.17
Mitchell 1.60
Proctor 1.07
Young 0.63
Roach 0.47
(Lively was 2.16)

In other words, our worst defenders are about equal to Carolina's best.

[bshrader]

From evanmiya.com, here are the DBPR ratings for some the key players last year. 0 is the average across all college players (all the way through the benchwarmers on bad teams):
Davis 0.79
Bacot 0.78
Ingram 0.47
Ryan 0.11
Withers -0.02


For comparison:
Flip 2.17
Mitchell 1.60
Proctor 1.07
Young 0.63
Roach 0.47
(Lively was 2.16)

In other words, our worst defenders are about equal to Carolina's best.

I understand that it is simply a metric, but my eyes tell me Roach is a better defender than RJ.

[UrinalCake]

Interesting stats. I thought Ingram was supposed to be a good defender. He certainly isn’t a shooter, so if his defense is also mediocre then what exactly does he bring? I guess we should keep in mind that he, Withers, Ryan, and the guy from Brown all played on terrible teams last year. Maybe that dragged them down, or maybe not.

Fans tend to overlook the importance of defense, but in this case I think UNC fans are really, REALLY ignoring how bad their defense will be and how difficult it will be for them to outscore their opponents. A backcourt of Cadeau/Davis/Ryan is going to be handing out a lot of biscuits… to the other team.

[JasonEvans]

I'll be honest... if I had to put money -- right now -- on the player who would win ACC Freshman of the Year in 2023-24, I'm probably putting my money on Cadeau (McCain and Louisville's Trenty Flowers would be my backup picks).

Sorry folks, I think he's gonna have a pretty big impact. There's almost no way he doesn't lead ACC freshmen in assists.

[luvdahops]

That’s a good point. But it’s not a given that, playing alongside Davis, Cadeau will have the ball in his hands enough to make a noticeable difference on that front. Could very well happen, but that would require giving a freshman point guard a lot more time with the ball in his hands than a senior point guard (who, we should note, doesn’t have a great track record of producing while off the ball).

I think Davis, like Jeremy Roach, is much better characterized as a combo guard or an undersized 2 than a true point guard. If he plays at the next level, it will almost surely as a change of pace guy off the bench rather than a floor general of any sort.

Davis and Roach have very similar assist rates and A/TO ratios through 3 years, and like Roach, Davis has the quickness to penetrate but lacks the vision and anticipation to be a great creator for others. Cadeau would appear to be the much better option for the starting PG, with Davis moving technically off-ball but still having it in his hands a lot, a la Roach or Quinn Cook.

[AGDukesky]

I'll be honest... if I had to put money -- right now -- on the player who would win ACC Freshman of the Year in 2023-24, I'm probably putting my money on Cadeau (McCain and Louisville's Trenty Flowers would be my backup picks).

Sorry folks, I think he's gonna have a pretty big impact. There's almost no way he doesn't lead ACC freshmen in assists.

Under Roy Williams, it would be very likely. Pass-first PGs flourished in his offense. I still don’t have a good feel for Hubert’s ability but I would not be surprised if Cadeau was an assist machine.