Tar Heels off-season thread

[Southgate0809]

UNC’s incoming transfers and the records of the teams they played for last season:

Cormac Ryan 11-21 (3-17)
Jae'lyn Withers 4-28 (2-18)
Paxton Wojcik 14-13 (7-7)

Combined 29-62 (32%) overall, 12-42 (22%) in conference. Some real winners they’re bringing in!

haha nice. I think they do have a psychological advantage next year. Last season was tough mentally. There was the pressure to be great, and they handled it poorly. Next year, I can see them getting a chip on their shoulder ("no one respects us," etc.). I don't see any of these incoming transfers having a big impact. I think the most important factor for them is how much of a leap Trimble and Washington take. Trimble has a reputation for being a great on-ball defender, but apparently he can't shoot. When he came into the game and was put on Roach, my observation was just that he fouled the hell out of him, which went uncalled. I'm not sure if I'd call that good defense, but I don't doubt that he's capable. Vitale was drooling over Washington when he played more minutes when Bacot was injured. So, the pieces MAY be there for them to be a pretty good team. I don't see them being top 10 or a national title contender. Their floor is incredibly low. What if Bacot's injury problems continue? What if he continues to struggle without a stretch 4 that can shoot? What if Davis has a bad shooting night? What if Hubert Davis just doesn't have what it takes to put together a cohesive team that relies on a bunch of transfers?

[whereinthehellami]

UNC is putting together the same kind of team they have had the past few years. they will beat who they should beat and lose to teams with a pulse. Luckily for them, the ACC will suck again next year, so they will look better than they are during the ACC portion of their season.

I think Hubie is in trouble. He strikes me as a nice guy who wants to do things the right way but is in over his head as a high level, successful coach. The reoccurring themes I see from IC are that hubert constantly inflates his players abilities, doesn't run any kind of offense with sets, has problems adjusting his defense to whatever the other team is running on offense, makes poor substitutions, and makes poor end of the game decisions.

UNC should be okay on offense next year and lacking on defense. I don't see any leaders or identity on their team. And all of this transition is not helping those issues.

Bacot's body is not made for longevity. He had a lot of injuries last year, I'm not sure he was ever fully healthy and this goes back to the year before. And the injuries he did have (ankles, shoulder) are a concern going forward. If they lose Bacot for any real part of their season they are in trouble.

[Southgate0809]

UNC is putting together the same kind of team they have had the past few years. they will beat who they should beat and lose to teams with a pulse. Luckily for them, the ACC will suck again next year, so they will look better than they are during the ACC portion of their season.

I think Hubie is in trouble. He strikes me as a nice guy who wants to do things the right way but is in over his head as a high level, successful coach. The reoccurring themes I see from IC are that hubert constantly inflates his players abilities, doesn't run any kind of offense with sets, has problems adjusting his defense to whatever the other team is running on offense, makes poor substitutions, and makes poor end of the game decisions.

UNC should be okay on offense next year and lacking on defense. I don't see any leaders or identity on their team. And all of this transition is not helping those issues.

Bacot's body is not made for longevity. He had a lot of injuries last year, I'm not sure he was ever fully healthy and this goes back to the year before. And the injuries he did have (ankles, shoulder) are a concern going forward. If they lose Bacot for any real part of their season they are in trouble.

It's interesting that everyone mentions that Hubert seems like a good guy. They love to mention that on IC, as they call for his firing. I can see Roy being a nice guy. I think Hubert looks like a jerk.

[gofurman]

While his DRtg is bad, Ryan's DBPM has been positive every year so far. I tend to put little stock in ORtg and DRtg and favor the BPM stats. So I think Ryan is actually an okay defender. He's scrappy and he has played on some bad defensive teams at Notre Dame, but I think that's less about him and more about the team itself.

I don't think Ryan makes the defense good or anything, but I don't think he compounds the problem.

What I do think is that he's a perfect fit next to RJ Davis. Ryan is a do-whatever-you-want type of player, capable of taking big shots but also capable of playing either PG or SG or SF. And his size is a good match next to Davis, who is tiny. Furthermore, he's a smart player who will help them avoid underutilizing their All-ACC center.

It's about the best-case get for the Heels unfortunately, and probably an upgrade in terms of fit with Davis and Bacot. Bad news for the hopes of UNC bottoming out next year.

I have to agree with this (jinx in play ??) - no, I actually do agree. With Davis at 6 foot or whatever.. Ryan is a good fit at 6'5". That gives em some needed height in the backcourt. Also, I recall UNC had 0 assists at ND in the first half. I don't think Cormac Ryan (24 yrs old !) would allow that. Good to have that experience, unfortunately ... So they get a proven expereinced player. is he the next coming of NBA awesomeness? no. But he is a decent shooter and very expereinced player. I wish he was available on our bench honestly.

[dlmzzz]

I have to agree with this (jinx in play ??) - no, I actually do agree. With Davis at 6 foot or whatever.. Ryan is a good fit at 6'5". That gives em some needed height in the backcourt. Also, I recall UNC had 0 assists at ND in the first half. I don't think Cormac Ryan (24 yrs old !) would allow that. Good to have that experience, unfortunately ... So they get a proven expereinced player. is he the next coming of NBA awesomeness? no. But he is a decent shooter and very expereinced player. I wish he was available on our bench honestly.

Look, they're going to get some players out of the portal. As long as they keep getting guys for their starting lineup that would be on our bench, I'm good with that.

It's interesting that everyone mentions that Hubert seems like a good guy. They love to mention that on IC, as they call for his firing. I can see Roy being a nice guy. I think Hubert looks like a jerk.

Hey, I'm really looking forward to the day when we can say, "Nice guy. Finished last."

[ClemmonsDevil]

I am comforted by knowing you thought UNC was going to be really good last season. I hope they are as good as last year.

This is absolutely fair.

[UrinalCake]

With Davis at 6 foot or whatever.. Ryan is a good fit at 6'5". That gives em some needed height in the backcourt.

They are still talking about getting 2024 commit Elliot Cadeau to reclassify up and play point guard this coming season. He’s about the same size as Davis and would push Ryan to the 3. That would be an awesome defense - for their opponents to feast on.

[House P]

I'm not sure how my eye test matches the stats, but it felt like Bacot had a less impressive year last year. Maybe that was because his team suffered and he missed some games to injury.

The stats seem to back up the eye test. One thing that is interesting to me is that - by the eye test and stats - none of the four main players at UNC seemed to improve in any meaningful way* between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Add in the fact that Pete Nance was a downgrade from Brady Manek and Carolina goes from a borderline top 25 team who got hot in the NCAA tourney to a borderline top 40 team who didn't give themselves the chance to get hot in the NIT.

Here are the traditional and advanced stats for UNC's top 5 guys in 2022 and 2023. They are remarkably similar with the exception of the dropoff between Manek and Nance.

Season
Player
G
MP
FGA
FG%
2P%
3PA
3P%
FT%
REB
AST
PTS
PER
TS%
eFG%
FTr
ORB%
DRB%
AST%
STL%
BLK%
TOV%
USG%
OBPM
DBPM
BPM

2021-22
Bacot
39
31.6
11.0
56.9%
57.7%
0.2
12.5%
67.0%
13.1
1.5
16.3
29.1
59.6%
57.0%
50.8%
14.8
30.0
9.9
1.5
5.3
12.6
24.3
5.8
3
8.9

2022-23
Bacot
32
30.3
10.4
55.4%
56.4%
0.2
0.0%
66.5%
10.4
1.4
15.9
26.7
58.7%
55.4%
62.6%
15.2
22.7
10.2
1.1
3.3
14.1
25.9
5.1
1.5
6.7





























2021-22
Love
39
34.2
13.7
37.1%
38.0%
6.6
36.0%
86.3%
3.4
3.6
15.9
15.0
51.2%
45.8%
28.7%
0.7
10.0
19.5
1.6
0.8
14.9
26.2
2.2
1.2
3.4

2022-23
Love
33
35.7
15.1
37.8%
45.5%
7.4
29.9%
76.5%
3.7
2.8
16.7
14.5
49.1%
45.2%
26.6%
1.1
10.3
16.5
1.7
0.6
12.5
27
1.6
0.9
2.5





























2021-22
Davis
39
33.9
10.7
42.5%
46.9%
4.6
36.7%
83.3%
4.3
3.6
13.5
16.5
55.0%
50.4%
30.1%
1.9
11.6
19.5
1.7
0.6
13.4
20.5
2.4
2.5
4.9

2022-23
Davis
33
34.9
12.4
43.8%
49.4%
5.3
36.2%
88.1%
5.1
3.2
16.1
18.9
56.7%
51.5%
30.8%
1.9
14.1
18.8
1.8
0.2
11.7
22.9
3.6
2.4
6





























2021-22
Black
38
29.7
3.8
46.6%
53.7%
1.3
33.3%
86.8%
4.3
2.7
4.9
12.3
56.7%
52.4%
26.0%
4.9
10.6
14.8
1.7
2.1
18.4
8.7
1.7
4.2
5.9

2022-23
Black
33
32.1
6.3
41.1%
47.2%
2.6
32.6%
70.2%
6.5
1.5
7.3
13.9
50.8%
47.8%
27.3%
6.1
16.4
8.4
2.3
2.5
10.9
12.5
1.9
4
5.9





























2021-22
Manek
39
30.4
11.4
49.3%
60.2%
6.2
40.3%
69.7%
6.1
1.8
15.1
22.0
61.3%
60.4%
17.1%
5.5
16.0
11.8
1.1
2.3
10.9
22.3
6.8
2.2
8.9

2022-23
Nance
30
30.1
7.7
42.2%
50.0%
3.3
32.0%
81.6%
6.0
1.7
10.0
14.6
54.7%
49.1%
37.5%
4.3
17.7
10.3
0.6
3.7
15.7
17.9
1.6
2.6
4.2

*My eye test tells me that Leaky Black improved his shooting to the point that you couldn't completely ignore him. His stats show that he took more shots but hit a lower percentage of them.

[MarkD83]

The focus of unc’s portal additions are shooter but no one seems to fit the role Leakey Black played. He kept unc from being a complete disaster.

[Southgate0809]

The stats seem to back up the eye test. One thing that is interesting to me is that - by the eye test and stats - none of the four main players at UNC seemed to improve in any meaningful way* between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Add in the fact that Pete Nance was a downgrade from Brady Manek and Carolina goes from a borderline top 25 team who got hot in the NCAA tourney to a borderline top 40 team who didn't give themselves the chance to get hot in the NIT.

Here are the traditional and advanced stats for UNC's top 5 guys in 2022 and 2023. They are remarkably similar with the exception of the dropoff between Manek and Nance.

Season
Player
G
MP
FGA
FG%
2P%
3PA
3P%
FT%
REB
AST
PTS
PER
TS%
eFG%
FTr
ORB%
DRB%
AST%
STL%
BLK%
TOV%
USG%
OBPM
DBPM
BPM

2021-22
Bacot
39
31.6
11.0
56.9%
57.7%
0.2
12.5%
67.0%
13.1
1.5
16.3
29.1
59.6%
57.0%
50.8%
14.8
30.0
9.9
1.5
5.3
12.6
24.3
5.8
3
8.9

2022-23
Bacot
32
30.3
10.4
55.4%
56.4%
0.2
0.0%
66.5%
10.4
1.4
15.9
26.7
58.7%
55.4%
62.6%
15.2
22.7
10.2
1.1
3.3
14.1
25.9
5.1
1.5
6.7





























2021-22
Love
39
34.2
13.7
37.1%
38.0%
6.6
36.0%
86.3%
3.4
3.6
15.9
15.0
51.2%
45.8%
28.7%
0.7
10.0
19.5
1.6
0.8
14.9
26.2
2.2
1.2
3.4

2022-23
Love
33
35.7
15.1
37.8%
45.5%
7.4
29.9%
76.5%
3.7
2.8
16.7
14.5
49.1%
45.2%
26.6%
1.1
10.3
16.5
1.7
0.6
12.5
27
1.6
0.9
2.5





























2021-22
Davis
39
33.9
10.7
42.5%
46.9%
4.6
36.7%
83.3%
4.3
3.6
13.5
16.5
55.0%
50.4%
30.1%
1.9
11.6
19.5
1.7
0.6
13.4
20.5
2.4
2.5
4.9

2022-23
Davis
33
34.9
12.4
43.8%
49.4%
5.3
36.2%
88.1%
5.1
3.2
16.1
18.9
56.7%
51.5%
30.8%
1.9
14.1
18.8
1.8
0.2
11.7
22.9
3.6
2.4
6





























2021-22
Black
38
29.7
3.8
46.6%
53.7%
1.3
33.3%
86.8%
4.3
2.7
4.9
12.3
56.7%
52.4%
26.0%
4.9
10.6
14.8
1.7
2.1
18.4
8.7
1.7
4.2
5.9

2022-23
Black
33
32.1
6.3
41.1%
47.2%
2.6
32.6%
70.2%
6.5
1.5
7.3
13.9
50.8%
47.8%
27.3%
6.1
16.4
8.4
2.3
2.5
10.9
12.5
1.9
4
5.9





























2021-22
Manek
39
30.4
11.4
49.3%
60.2%
6.2
40.3%
69.7%
6.1
1.8
15.1
22.0
61.3%
60.4%
17.1%
5.5
16.0
11.8
1.1
2.3
10.9
22.3
6.8
2.2
8.9

2022-23
Nance
30
30.1
7.7
42.2%
50.0%
3.3
32.0%
81.6%
6.0
1.7
10.0
14.6
54.7%
49.1%
37.5%
4.3
17.7
10.3
0.6
3.7
15.7
17.9
1.6
2.6
4.2

*My eye test tells me that Leaky Black improved his shooting to the point that you couldn't completely ignore him. His stats show that he took more shots but hit a lower percentage of them.

I think his average went way down just due to all the 3's be missed against us. And that wide open one at the end of the game in Cameron was the best representation of hiw Scheyer outcoached Hubert. (I was typing "outcoached," and my phone auto corrected to "outclassed." Apparently Android has a sense of humor).

My memory was that Leaky got hot early in the season and actually had the highest 3p% on the team at one point, and then pulled a Mark Mitchell.

[Southgate0809]

The focus of unc’s portal additions are shooter but no one seems to fit the role Leakey Black played. He kept unc from being a complete disaster.

Who does UNC put on Flip next year? The guy from Louisville?

[PackMan97]

The focus of unc’s portal additions are shooter but no one seems to fit the role Leakey Black played. He kept unc from being a complete disaster.

I'll settle for complete disaster next season for the heels.

[SavDukeGrad]

Who does UNC put on Flip next year? The guy from Louisville?

Maybe Hubert will put Bacot on Flip. Kinda like he put Bacot on Paolo to start the game in Chapel Hill last year. When Bacot picked up 2 quick fouls in the first few minutes. Good times!

[dlmzzz]

I think his average went way down just due to all the 3's be missed against us. And that wide open one at the end of the game in Cameron was the best representation of hiw Scheyer outcoached Hubert. (I was typing "outcoached," and my phone auto corrected to "outclassed." Apparently Android has a sense of humor).

My memory was that Leaky got hot early in the season and actually had the highest 3p% on the team at one point, and then pulled a Mark Mitchell.

I, for one, welcome our new AI overlords.

[UrinalCake]

I think his average went way down just due to all the 3's [he] missed against us. And that wide open one at the end of the game in Cameron was the best representation of [how] Scheyer outcoached Hubert.

But he had hit something like three in a row from deep prior to that miss, all wide open. The miss was him reverting to the mean.

[MartyClark]

I'll settle for complete disaster next season for the heels.

Yes, what you said.

[brevity]

He's not the guy on Notre Dame that went off on us this year is it? I'm blanking on that guy's name.

No, he's the guy that went off on us in the COVID season.

Here's a highlight video of Cormac Ryan's 28-point outburst in Cameron back in February 2021.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Here's a highlight video of Cormac Ryan's 28-point outburst in Cameron back in February 2021.

I did a little googling to refresh my memory on Ryan. He is a NYC kid who went to an elite prep school (Collegiate) before transferring to a boarding school in Mass. He played his freshman year at Stanford before transferring to Notre Dame and sitting out a year before playing there, so he will be turning 25 on October. After going to two elite academic schools like Stanford and Notre Dame, joining the UNC basketball program will surely be a cultural change for him.

Is he going to single-handedly win a title for Carolina? No. But are they a better team today now that they have him than they were a few days ago without him? Definitely.

[Music man55]

I did a little googling to refresh my memory on Ryan. He is a NYC kid who went to an elite prep school (Collegiate) before transferring to a boarding school in Mass. He played his freshman year at Stanford before transferring to Notre Dame and sitting out a year before playing there, so he will be turning 25 on October. After going to two elite academic schools like Stanford and Notre Dame, joining the UNC basketball program will surely be a cultural change for him.

Is he going to single-handedly win a title for Carolina? No. But are they a better team today now that they have him than they were a few days ago without him? Definitely.

Cormac Ryan, I think will provide some leadership for the cheats next season. For Notre Dame, I noticed he was always pulling that team together in the huddle. However, how will RJ Davis react? Could also cause some angst among them. Let’s hope it’s the latter!

[quahog174]

Depends on who Cormac’s girlfriend is.