Tar Heels off-season thread

[UrinalCake]

After this year - the message is hey, come help us avoid that embarrassment again.

"Nowhere to go but up!"

[cato]

Timberlake does not have a good defensive reputation from what I have read and the defensive stats - for whatever they are worth - seem to back that up.

I think the idea is that Wojcik and Timberlake are going to be depth guys that can also provide shooting off the bench. They have more highly-regarded players in Dunn, Wilcher, and Trimble that can play the guard spots already. I assume that Wilcher will have the inside track to starting at the off guard spot.

Washington looked completely lost on defense for the few minutes he did play last season. The Duke coaching staff repeatedly targeted him when he was in there. It would be surprising if Washington became an adequate defender. He can stretch the defense a little with his jumper.

Lots of questions about the defensive capabilities of the roster as it is shaping up in Chapel Hill. They can still add about 4 guys through the portal, but they will all need to be forwards that can produce or at least contribute. I don't think they can rely on Washington and High.

Dear DBA,

Please don’t get my hopes up with analysis or analytics. There is simply too much downside if the Heels end up decent or, Heaven forbid, good.

Your friend,
cato

[bshrader]

Dear DBA,

Please don’t get my hopes up with analysis or analytics. There is simply too much downside if the Heels end up decent or, Heaven forbid, good.

Your friend,
cato

I know over on IC they are absolutely praying for a Cadeau reclass. But as was mentioned earlier in this thread, the idea of going up against two 6-foot guards in Cadeau and Davis defensively...with us having Proctor, McCain, Foster...sign me up please.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Dear DBA,

Please don’t get my hopes up with analysis or analytics. There is simply too much downside if the Heels end up decent or, Heaven forbid, good.

Your friend,
cato

They could hit a homerun in the transfer portal at the wing position. It's totally possible.

I think the optimistic outlook from their perspective is that they are going to be like a suspension bridge. They have a solid player at both the 1 and 5. They would say better than solid, but that's what I am saying here. Davis and Bacot are the anchors for their team. They are both legit All-ACC caliber players, so no arguments there. Then you fill in the suspension part of the bridge 2-4. Love was so inefficient, Leaky Black was such a non-factor on offense, and Pete Nance was so blah that it will be addition by subtraction. They hope that Wilcher pans out as an above-average player that isn't relied upon to do much. Maybe Dunn improves, too, and provides solid minutes at the 2 or 3. Timberlake and Wojcik come in and hit a few shots to open up the offense and keep defenses from collapsing on Bacot. If they get the right guys at the 3 and 4 through the portal, this might be a potent offense. The hope is that they get the right guys there and end up slightly better than last year. It's a bridge year, after all, and the bridge is to 2024 and beyond when you get a big recruiting class to Chapel Hill. That class - Elliot Cadeau, Ian Jackson, Drake Powell, James Brown, maybe Jarin Stevenson - is the foundation for future success. It will be the recruits that make or break Hubert Davis's time in Chapel Hill. That's why they landed Timberlake and Wojcik - two grad transfers that will be gone next summer - so that they don't have to worry about playing time or crowding. Then you hope that most of that group stays together and you're back to being The Tar Heels by the time they are sophomore or juniors.

The pessimistic viewpoint is a bridge to nowhere. They strike out this summer at the 3 and 4 in the transfer portal. The portal is not looking so hot right now, anyway. The team is a disaster on defense after losing Black, who was at least keeping them decent on that end of the court. The mid-major transfers prove they are more Christian Keeling than Brady Manek and can't handle the pressure of playing against high-majors every game. The Class of 2024 - widely considered to be very weak in general and at the top in particular - isn't capable of putting together a winning product in Year 1. The fans, no longer huffing the high of beating Duke in the 2022 Final Four, start to remember that they expect to win every year. The pitchforks come out for Davis as he has to cobble together another roster overhaul next summer after Bacot exhausts his eligibility and Davis, Timberlake, and Wojcik leave while Dunn and Trimble say so long, too, having ridden Davis's underused bench for a combined 5 seasons. They go into 2024 with 5 freshmen and maybe 2-3 holdovers from the last few years and pray that the freshmen will save them from a 6th season of life on the bubble or worse.

I don't think either of these situations play out. The most likely is the in between scenario where they get 1 good transfer this summer and sort of stumble along in what should be yet another weak ACC schedule. Hopefully Duke beats them at least twice.

[MChambers]

Brendan Marks of the Athletic has a long article on what went wrong (or, in our view, right) with UNCheat's season. Looks like you can access it with a NYT subscription:

https://theathletic.com/4357815/2023...-hubert-davis/

[coldriver10]

Brendan Marks of the Athletic has a long article on what went wrong (or, in our view, right) with UNCheat's season. Looks like you can access it with a NYT subscription:

https://theathletic.com/4357815/2023...-hubert-davis/

This article was excellent. Amongst a number of noteworthy tidbits, this one, made during his discussion of Love's terrible offensive efficiency, stood out to me.

By season’s end, Love had missed 171 3-pointers; R.J. Davis, second on the team in 3-point tries, had attempted 174.

That's kind of nuts.

[wilko]

As much as I relish the notion of slaying the Dragon and the fall of UNC.
History has taught me that is the wrong way to categorize them as a foe.

They are zombie cockroaches and you will wear out boots trying to stomp them all out. There is no end. They just keep coming.

[BLPOG]

winning the program’s seventh

Counting bakery wins, eh, Brendan?

[OldPhiKap]

They are zombie cockroaches and you will wear out boots trying to stomp them all out. There is no end. They just keep coming.

This is gold.

[roywhite]

As much as I relish the notion of slaying the Dragon and the fall of UNC.
History has taught me that is the wrong way to categorize them as a foe.

They are zombie cockroaches and you will wear out boots trying to stomp them all out. There is no end. They just keep coming.

Agreed. Been watching them since the late 1960's. They never run out of talented players. They sometimes are not well coached.

[HPDevil]

Counting bakery wins, eh, Brendan?

Someone please correspond with him on this issue.

[BLPOG]

Someone please correspond with him on this issue.

Honestly, if I were to bother sending him a message I'd prioritize something else, like a statistical error I spotted (or an error of language regarding statistics, depending on how you choose to frame it).

On the other hand, I would LOVE to see an update with a correction.

Seriously though, how does someone get that wrong? Basic due diligence...

[BrummieDevil]

As much as I relish the notion of slaying the Dragon and the fall of UNC.
History has taught me that is the wrong way to categorize them as a foe.

They are zombie cockroaches and you will wear out boots trying to stomp them all out. There is no end. They just keep coming.

There's just no point to worrying about if they'll be good or not. We've seen how desperate they are to be the top dog in this rivalry, which they haven't been over a matter of decades now, and how low they'll sink trying to make that happen.

It's like worrying about the hand someone who you know is cheating will show in a poker game (or in their case it's probably more like a game of Go Fish).

[jv001]

As much as I relish the notion of slaying the Dragon and the fall of UNC.
History has taught me that is the wrong way to categorize them as a foe.

They are zombie cockroaches and you will wear out boots trying to stomp them all out. There is no end. They just keep coming.

There hasn't been a pesticide invented that will take either out. After a season where the future looked bright for us Duke fans and the future looked bleak for the Cheat fans, they somehow came up from the dust. Of course, when you can recruit like they did and keep the same recruits eligible, that helps.

GoDuke!

[gumbomoop]

Cadeau looked very good in GEICOs. Pure PG, as they say. He set a GEICO Nationals record for assists, 29 in 3 games.

When asked after Championship game, which his team won, when he’d be coming to CH, he said something like, “Not sure yet, working on it.” If he does reclassify, he’s their PG, backed up by Trimble. Moves Davis to the 2, backed by incoming frosh Wilcher.

If Cadeau reclassifies and they get a good PF from the portal, they’ll be very good.

[trinity79]

Cadeau looked very good in GEICOs. Pure PG, as they say. He set a GEICO Nationals record for assists, 29 in 3 games.

. . .

If Cadeau reclassifies and they get a good PF from the portal, they’ll be very good.

Which would be very bad 😔

[JasonEvans]

If he does reclassify, he’s their PG, backed up by Trimble. Moves Davis to the 2, backed by incoming frosh Wilcher.

Yeah but RJ Davis is best with the ball in his hands. He was PG this year and last and his 114.3 Ortg on KenPom topped the team among the regular players. I doubt he will take kindly to being moved off the ball as a senior.

What's more, Cadeau is 6-1, 165... He is basically the same size as Davis (maybe an inch taller and 10-15 pounds lighter). Cadeau is also not known as a strong defender. If you roll out a pair of 6-nothing PGs who weigh less than 180, your team is probably going to struggle mightily on D.

This feels like some fairly serious positional overlap that could be problematic for Carolina. I think the talk that Cadeau and Ian Jackson will reclass was based on the notion that RJ and Caleb would be moving on this year. With RJ still on the team, I just don't see how Cadeau makes sense.

[UrinalCake]

Cadeau is 6'1, 165lb and would be 19 years old. RJ Davis will be one of the best scorers in the league but is 6'0, 160lb and already gets exploited defensively. That would be a REALLY small backcourt and I salivate at the thought of Proctor and Foster going at them, both of whom run 6'5. Foster would have 30 pounds on Davis based on listed weight. Also Davis was unable to control his team of veterans and UNC has historically not developed elite freshmen well, so let's just say I'm skeptical at how well he'll be able to coach up a kid who reclasses up.

In other UNC-CHeat news, perusing through IC I see that the Timberlake kid from Towson finished his official visit last week and there was an expectation that he would commit on the spot but he did not, so now they're worried he's not coming. Their insiders were also optimistic that Justin Moore of Villanova was going to enter the portal and the readers got worked up into a frenzy about him coming, only to have their hopes dashed when he affirmed his committment to Nova. They need to find three starters out of the portal but they response they've gotten so far has been more like...

[lotusland]

You should consider using those words as the chorus to a song. In fact, it’s so good you should begin the vocal portion of the song with said chorus.

Unorthodox, yes, but you can pull it off if you have a really Sweet voice. Even Caleb might Love it if you’re good enough.

There should be a good reply about a ballroom blitz or a Fox on the run but my desolation angels have let me down.

[dukelion]

Cadeau is 6'1, 165lb and would be 19 years old. RJ Davis will be one of the best scorers in the league but is 6'0, 160lb and already gets exploited defensively. That would be a REALLY small backcourt and I salivate at the thought of Proctor and Foster going at them, both of whom run 6'5. Foster would have 30 pounds on Davis based on listed weight. Also Davis was unable to control his team of veterans and UNC has historically not developed elite freshmen well, so let's just say I'm skeptical at how well he'll be able to coach up a kid who reclasses up.

If they want to take the ball out of Davis' hands and instead put it into a freshman pass-first PG without a reliable jumpshot, thereby making Davis a catch and shoot 6' shooting guard...who are we to argue?

Seriously though...Cadeau seems like a decent prospect but forcing him on next year's team roster seems like a "cadeau" for us.

And if they lost out on Timberlake that would be pretty significant. He's about as good as they can hope for to fill the SG spot through the Portal.