2023 NCAAM West Regional Thread (sɐsuɐʞ, ∀˥Ɔ∩, ɐƃɐzuoפ, Connecticut)

[House P]

UConn had no tradition until Calhoun got there and now they’re on the verge of winning their fifth national championship. That would be as many as Duke and more than Kansas if I have my math right. I think it would also tie them with Indiana. I don’t like them but when you see what Calhoun belt and what has been sustained, obviously with some lapses by Ollie and now Hurley it’s pretty amazing.

UConn has had 6 great tourney runs in the past 25 years, resulting in (at least) 4 championships. This is well above what would be expected based on their overall performance.

Consider the following:

- KenPom lists UConn 17th overall in his program ratings (1997-2022). UConn's ten closest peers - UCLA, Illinois, UVA, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Syracuse, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, and Oregon - have won a combined total of 3 championships.

- Since 1997, UConn has made 6 Final Fours, but has "only" reached the Sweeet Sixteen 10 times. The other programs which have reach 6 Final Fours - Duke, Kentucky and Kansas - have reached the Sweet Sixteen 18, 15, 15 times respectively.

[ClemmonsDevil]

UConn has had 6 great tourney runs in the past 25 years, resulting in (at least) 4 championships. This is well above what would be expected based on their overall performance.

Consider the following:

- KenPom lists UConn 17th overall in his program ratings (1997-2022). UConn's ten closest peers - UCLA, Illinois, UVA, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Syracuse, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, and Oregon - have won a combined total of 3 championships.

- Since 1997, UConn has made 6 Final Fours, but has "only" reached the Sweeet Sixteen 10 times. The other programs which have reach 6 Final Fours - Duke, Kentucky and Kansas - have reached the Sweet Sixteen 18, 15, 15 times respectively.

Yes. So much luck is required to win a title and they have benefited from it. So has Duke and YNC, but UConn more than anyone. They make the Final 4 (the mark of a great season) less often than Duke, UNC, Kansas, Kentucky, but have won the title if they made it.

[uh_no]

UConn has had 6 great tourney runs in the past 25 years, resulting in (at least) 4 championships. This is well above what would be expected based on their overall performance.

Consider the following:

- KenPom lists UConn 17th overall in his program ratings (1997-2022). UConn's ten closest peers - UCLA, Illinois, UVA, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Syracuse, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, and Oregon - have won a combined total of 3 championships.

- Since 1997, UConn has made 6 Final Fours, but has "only" reached the Sweeet Sixteen 10 times. The other programs which have reach 6 Final Fours - Duke, Kentucky and Kansas - have reached the Sweet Sixteen 18, 15, 15 times respectively.

I'm curious how much the program ranking tanked after 2014. It also discounts the fact that uconn had several very strong seasons in the 90s.

But either way, uconn has certainly been more boom or bust than I think any other program, and certainly than the ones you mention...and you could even toss UNC and UCLA in there.

It's hard to argue against their top-end success since 1990, but it's also easy to argue that their lows are typically lower, even if we "adjust" for the ollie era. For instance, I think UNC was easier to turn around after the D'oh era than uconn after the ollie era due to UNC being UNC (and likely the clout of Roy relative to Hurley). But i think it's hard to argue that this program was turned around because of Danny Hurley, and not because they're "uconn." He said as much in a presser, that the history is great, but it doesn't help you get players now, or win games now.

This all said, I think the transfer market changes a lot of things. Duke and UNC have always been able to snag recruits. The transfer market is a bit of an equalizer, in that more programs are going to be able to fill their ranks with high-performing players on demand. I think the OAD recruiting actually hurts this, as why, as a top performing athlete at a mid-tier school are you going to a place where your contribution is unknown and depends on how well an incoming recruit will do, vs a program that has a couple pieces, and has a specific role they want you to fill? I don't think Duke has made that adjustment quite yet, even getting their toes wet in the market, but I think it will be how you have to recruit moving forward...and I think that is part of the idea with Jon's comments about changing recruiting.

The "old" model was hot shot OAD and experience. The new model is experience in the program, great recruits, and transfers that fill specific gaps...and I think, for better or worse, getting great ready to play recruits hurts the transfer part.

[moonpie23]

As others have said, it was the Nova vs. Carolina play, except about 5 feet further out and without the sideline screen. That took some stones to put it up.

The Nova play:



9F

like a juicy 40oz cowboy ribeye...

[uh_no]

Yes. So much luck is required to win a title and they have benefited from it. So has Duke and YNC, but UConn more than anyone. They make the Final 4 (the mark of a great season) less often than Duke, UNC, Kansas, Kentucky, but have won the title if they made it.

That's a bit of a weird argument, and implies that uconn has had easier games when they make the FF, which I'm not sure I agree overall. Lets look at it a bit more closely. And I'll use KP numbers rather than seeds...since at least it's not exposed to bias.

2015: #15 MSU and #2 wisconsin
2014: #3 florida and #13 kentucky
2011: #7 kentucky and #36 butler
2010: #5 WV and #12 butler
2009: #9 MSU
2004: played eachother

The only outlier here was butler in 2011...but that team's road to the final four was 21 cincinnati, 8 SDSU and 20 Arizona (the latter two in effectively home games for the other team), which was harder than, say, Duke's last year. So were they lucky there? Sure. But they also had proved they belonged, especially given the absurd big east run.

In any case, I don't think Uconn has been especially "lucky" in who they've played overall. They are certainly boom/bust for one reason or another, but not really beacuse of their opponents relative to a typical run to either the FF or title.

[House P]

I'm curious how much the program ranking tanked after 2014. It also discounts the fact that uconn had several very strong seasons in the 90s.

Good point. I don't have an easy way to look at KenPom rankings through 2014, but I do have a spreadsheet with all the SRS rankings since 1950. Based on this, UConn had the 8th best average SRS rating between 1997 and 2014.

The ten programs with the closest average SRS ranking have a total of 6 championships over this period.

Michigan State

Arizona

Florida

Louisville

Wisconsin

Maryland

Syracuse

Illinois

Texas

Ohio State

The fact is the UConn has had a tremendously high tourney success rate when they had a quality team since the late 90s. If my count is correct, UConn has been seeded 4 or higher ten times in this period and have managed to parlay that into 5 final fours and 3 championships (plus their 2014 championship as a 7 seed).

[sagegrouse]

You may get your wish after the wave of defections (FSU, Clemson and others) in the next few years. I know the name UCONN is despised on this board, but I’m certain they’d want to join and I don’t know what other school the ACC would take ahead of them. Thus assumes ACC and PAC don’t merge.

West Virginia has been dying to be an ACC member for the past 70 years.

[uh_no]

Good point. I don't have an easy way to look at KenPom rankings through 2014, but I do have a spreadsheet with all the SRS rankings since 1950. Based on this, UConn had the 8th best average SRS rating between 1997 and 2014.

The ten programs with the closest average SRS ranking have a total of 6 championships over this period.

Michigan State

Arizona

Florida

Louisville

Wisconsin

Maryland

Syracuse

Illinois

Texas

Ohio State

The fact is the UConn has had a tremendously high tourney success rate when they had a quality team since the late 90s. If my count is correct, UConn has been seeded 4 or higher ten times in this period and have managed to parlay that into 5 final fours and 3 championships (plus their 2014 championship as a 7 seed).

don't get me wrong, I'm not arguing that they haven't had far more than their fair share of success relative to their overall program quality. It's just hard to look at it and understand...why...as you wouldn't expect over the long run a team to have postseason results imcommensurate with their overall performance...and I think we're at a point where it's hard to just chalk it up to random chance given 3 surprising runs in 12 years, and *if* there is a confounding factor, I would suggest the following:

1) Effective recruiting dominance in the northeast. Look at their rosters.

Clingan: bristol CT
Diarra: Queens
Jackson: AMsterdam, NY
Karaban: Southborough, MA
Richie Springs: Brooklyn

We can go back to some of their other teams.
2014:
Terrence Samuel: brooklyn
Tyler Olander: Mansfield, CT
Shabazz Napier: Roxbury, MA
Omar Calhoun: Brooklyn NY

2011:
Jamal Coombs: Dorchester, MA
Kemba Walker: The Bronx
Alex Oriakhi: Lowell, MA

There is huge talent that comes out of some of the cities in the northeast, and obviously there are programs that recruit nationally, but Uconn has the inside track on a lot of that...and I honestly think being out of the BE hurt that. There's a great 30 for 30 on the history of the big east, and IIRC, it ends with the line "You'd play with all these kids at the park, and it didn't matter whether you went to SHU, SJU, Uconn, nova, but we'll see you in march at the garden"...and uconn has that back a bit now. I think it's incredibly important that the BE kept the garden contract in that deal.

2) Somehow they have this recruiting trail to internationals, especially African players. I have no idea how they do it, but they must have a marketing department or spies there or something.
Sanogo: Mali
Samson Johnson: Togo
Kassoum Yakwe: Mali
Amida Brimah: Ghana
Charles Okwandu: Nigeria
Hasheem Thabeet: Tanzania

And my point isn't to bucket these players or countries, but the amount of success they've had recruiting a largely underrepresented basketball continent is pretty stunning...so it's not hard to imagine the program on the whole makes a point of building a channel one way or another.

3) good coaching
Calhoun is in the hall of fame, and it's hard to argue against the program that hurley is putting together right now.


Anyway, those are my thoughts.

[arnie]

Of interest, but not directly rated, the highest ever seed total in a Final Four is 22. That occurred in 2000 with Mich St, Florida, Whisky and Cheats. This year FAU and UConn are in totaling 13; if Miami wins the total will be 23 or 24.

[DukieInKansas]

UConn had no tradition until Calhoun got there and now they’re on the verge of winning their fifth national championship. That would be as many as Duke and more than Kansas if I have my math right. I think it would also tie them with Indiana. I don’t like them but when you see what Calhoun belt and what has been sustained, obviously with some lapses by Ollie and now Hurley it’s pretty amazing. Throw in Geno’s unmatched record and it’s hard to argue that Storrs Connecticut hasn’t been the capital of college basketball for the last quarter century.

I wish the ACC had taken them over Boston College, Syracuse or Notre Dame. BC is irrelevant, Boeheims a jerk (so glad his coaching career ended in Greensboro appreciated the irony) and now that Mike Brey is gone, Notre Dame has lost the one thing that counteracted there insufferability and sanctimony

Kansas will tell you they have 6.

Gotta knead the numbers to give the bakers their due.

[knicknut]

That's a bit of a weird argument, and implies that uconn has had easier games when they make the FF, which I'm not sure I agree overall. Lets look at it a bit more closely. And I'll use KP numbers rather than seeds...since at least it's not exposed to bias.

...

In any case, I don't think Uconn has been especially "lucky" in who they've played overall. They are certainly boom/bust for one reason or another, but not really because of their opponents relative to a typical run to either the FF or title.

I read Clemmons's point as that UConn has been able to string their wins together and/or get hot at the right times to cluster their success into championships. Would you rather win a championship every five seasons and lose in the 1st or 2nd round or miss the tournament in the other four years, or lose in the sweet 16 every year? Long-term collective models would put these two schools roughly equal, but UConn's path down the first one makes its place in the "blue bloods" argument an interesting one.

[uh_no]

I read Clemmons's point as that UConn has been able to string their wins together and/or get hot at the right times to cluster their success into championships. Would you rather win a championship every five seasons and lose in the 1st or 2nd round or miss the tournament in the other four years, or lose in the sweet 16 every year? Long-term collective models would put these two schools roughly equal, but UConn's path down the first one makes its place in the "blue bloods" argument an interesting one.

but the odd thing is I don't think you can intentionally build a team to do that as you would in, say, pro ball where you have to juggle cap space, draft picks, etc. So they're lucky when it comes to titles vs overall program quality, but unlucky in terms of "decent years" overall relative to program quality.But yeah, I'd agree with that, even if it's not an intentional "path."

I don't care much about the blue blood stuff. Just like the ivy league, people in the "club" will come up with whatever reasons to gate keeep, and everyone else will come up with whatever reason why the distinction is irrelevant. Neither is really right.

[gofurman]

Uconn was paying +800 before weekend. I am, um, well aware

[DevilHorse]

I was wondering if Bobby was there:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639828740929732609

Larry
DevilHorse