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  1. #1

    NIL deal amount accuracy

    There are various sites that report the value of NIL deals.

    Is there any way of determining the accuracy of these deals?

    I am told that the numbers are significantly inflated. One example is that I am told Bacot receives closer to 200 K or so rather than the reported 1-1.5 Mil number.

  2. #2
    scottdude8's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by doctorhook View Post
    There are various sites that report the value of NIL deals.

    Is there any way of determining the accuracy of these deals?

    I am told that the numbers are significantly inflated. One example is that I am told Bacot receives closer to 200 K or so rather than the reported 1-1.5 Mil number.
    Many of these websites are not actually using real numbers, but instead inferring what someone's "potential" NIL earnings could be based on their social media following. This is why, for instance, Jared McCain is projected to earn so much NIL... it's because of his TikTok following, not (as far as I know) from any reporting on what deals he may have. I'd take everything you read on this front with a major grain of salt and much skepticism.
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  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Many of these websites are not actually using real numbers, but instead inferring what someone's "potential" NIL earnings could be based on their social media following. This is why, for instance, Jared McCain is projected to earn so much NIL... it's because of his TikTok following, not (as far as I know) from any reporting on what deals he may have. I'd take everything you read on this front with a major grain of salt and much skepticism.
    I agree about the skepticism.

    I pose the question because with a player like Bacot, wouldn't he be better off staying another year and earning 1.5 M?

    He sure won't get that money in the G League or overseas.

  4. #4
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    I also think the numbers are highly inflated (there's probably a reason why they are, if one follows the money). Unless they release their tax returns, there is no way to know for certain. Or at some point, if there is a cap on NIL deals per team, then they'd have to disclose them.

    I can't believe Bacot could make $1.5M. Banchero's deals last year were nowhere near that high, more like ~$200K. As we know, Banchero was the #1 draft pick, led his team well into March, was ranked all year, etc. How could Bacot make ~8x that? Carolina boosters are crazy, but I can't believe they'd be that crazy to conjure up such deals for Bacot. But hey, Melinda Gates, if you want to pull a few million bucks out from between your couch cushions, there are a few players on this team that might stay another year!

    9F
    I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.

  5. #5
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    There is a difference between legitimate endorsement deals (for example, check out Dereck Lively's tweet today about Lids -- https://twitter.com/DereckLively/sta...91204097458179 ) and money given to players from boosters and collectives that is merely thinly veiled pay-for-play (like the Texas A&M football recruiting collective, the Hunt family in Arkansas, and John Ruiz for Miami). If you want details about the latter, google can provide many links.

    It is my understanding that the vast majority of NIL stuff done by Duke players is legitimate endorsement opportunities, like Lively's tweet, the stuff being sold by The Brotherhood, or the ads that Paolo did a year ago. That said, I do think there is at least a little bit of the -- well -- slightly more shady stuff also happening for Duke athletes, as it is at pretty much every school these days. I don't want to get into details -- and I, frankly, don't have a lot of details -- but there are groups that will pay players to make appearances at charitable events or hospitals and stuff like that. It happens and I really don't have a problem with it.

    If I had to guess, I believe there are some schools and some players who are making really nice income from these shady NIL deals. We know for a fact that Nijel Pack is making $800k from John Ruiz to play at Miami this year and next. Rest assured, he is not alone in pulling down 6-figures to play at a certain school. I agree that $1.5 mil for Armando Bacot is probably a bit more than reality, but I would not be at all surprised to find out that he was making well over $500k this season and he could probably do the same if he choses to come back.

    -Jason "finding hard numbers -- actual verifiable stuff -- on any of these deals is almost impossible" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by kako View Post
    I also think the numbers are highly inflated (there's probably a reason why they are, if one follows the money). Unless they release their tax returns, there is no way to know for certain. Or at some point, if there is a cap on NIL deals per team, then they'd have to disclose them.

    I can't believe Bacot could make $1.5M. Banchero's deals last year were nowhere near that high, more like ~$200K. As we know, Banchero was the #1 draft pick, led his team well into March, was ranked all year, etc. How could Bacot make ~8x that? Carolina boosters are crazy, but I can't believe they'd be that crazy to conjure up such deals for Bacot. But hey, Melinda Gates, if you want to pull a few million bucks out from between your couch cushions, there are a few players on this team that might stay another year!

    9F
    I am pretty sure Banchero made much more last year- but some that was just before March Madness. Banchero was destined to make millions out of the gate- so his NIL deal is not really typical. Bacot is not likely to get drafted in the first round (I suspect someone may take him in the second)- maybe even Jordan if he has a pick.
    Last edited by JasonEvans; 03-07-2023 at 02:46 PM. Reason: Fixed spelling of Bacot

  7. #7
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    Just want to state my feelings on the record: all of these athletes deserve to make as much money as they can legally make (even endorsing someone's restaurant, body shop, pet store, etc. for a ridiculous amount of money is legal. It may be a bad business deal, but it's legal, as long as the money itself is legal and not laundered). Before when schools and the NCAA made gobs of cash and threw the players a bone (which yes, included tuition, but that's basically a sunk cost to the school), it smacked of indentured servitude. I do think the full effects of NIL have not really been understood yet, and I think it will eventually cause even greater changes in college sports as we used to know it. And I think one of those changes will be to eventually let the public know how much NIL money a player makes. But overall, letting players profit off themselves, just like any other students can, is the right thing to do.

    Once again, calling Melinda Gates, calling Melinda Gates...

    9F
    I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.

  8. #8
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    I got curious and dug around on the internet and found this site that has the top 100 NIL estimated valuations. I think it's very important to remember these are estimates/projections. The potential probably has something to do with pedigree, followers, location and performance. That being said:

    1. Bronny James ($7.2M) and Arch Manning (#3.7M) are #1 and 2. The rich get richer! You can't be on social media for long until you hear about Livvy Dunne. She's #3 at $3.4M.
    2. Jared McCain is #16, valuation of $1.2M. Way to early to really know, of course. But it is significant that he's so high. I would guess Roach knows this. Makes me wonder what Lively and Whitehead were before they matriculated.
    3. Oscar Tshiebwe is #25 at $915M. Zack Edey is #39 at $813M. Drew Timme is #67 at $626M. Gradey Dick is #75 at $561.
    4. Bacot is #79 at $551M. Flip is close behind at #83/$546M.
    5. I didn't see any other ACC players or Duke incoming freshmen, but I could have missed one. Unfortunately you cannot search by college, only high school.

    9F
    I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by kako View Post
    I got curious and dug around on the internet and found this site that has the top 100 NIL estimated valuations. I think it's very important to remember these are estimates/projections. The potential probably has something to do with pedigree, followers, location and performance. That being said:

    1. Bronny James ($7.2M) and Arch Manning (#3.7M) are #1 and 2. The rich get richer! You can't be on social media for long until you hear about Livvy Dunne. She's #3 at $3.4M.
    2. Jared McCain is #16, valuation of $1.2M. Way to early to really know, of course. But it is significant that he's so high. I would guess Roach knows this. Makes me wonder what Lively and Whitehead were before they matriculated.
    3. Oscar Tshiebwe is #25 at $915M. Zack Edey is #39 at $813M. Drew Timme is #67 at $626M. Gradey Dick is #75 at $561.
    4. Bacot is #79 at $551M. Flip is close behind at #83/$546M.
    5. I didn't see any other ACC players or Duke incoming freshmen, but I could have missed one. Unfortunately you cannot search by college, only high school.
    K, not M... right? I mean... wow!
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by kako View Post
    I got curious and dug around on the internet and found this site that has the top 100 NIL estimated valuations. I think it's very important to remember these are estimates/projections. The potential probably has something to do with pedigree, followers, location and performance. That being said:

    1. Bronny James ($7.2M) and Arch Manning (#3.7M) are #1 and 2. The rich get richer! You can't be on social media for long until you hear about Livvy Dunne. She's #3 at $3.4M.
    2. Jared McCain is #16, valuation of $1.2M. Way to early to really know, of course. But it is significant that he's so high. I would guess Roach knows this. Makes me wonder what Lively and Whitehead were before they matriculated.
    3. Oscar Tshiebwe is #25 at $915M. Zack Edey is #39 at $813M. Drew Timme is #67 at $626M. Gradey Dick is #75 at $561.
    4. Bacot is #79 at $551M. Flip is close behind at #83/$546M.
    5. I didn't see any other ACC players or Duke incoming freshmen, but I could have missed one. Unfortunately you cannot search by college, only high school.

    9F
    The question is how accurate are these numbers?

    NIL amounts may be grossly exaggerated.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by kako View Post
    Just want to state my feelings on the record: all of these athletes deserve to make as much money as they can legally make (even endorsing someone's restaurant, body shop, pet store, etc. for a ridiculous amount of money is legal. It may be a bad business deal, but it's legal, as long as the money itself is legal and not laundered). Before when schools and the NCAA made gobs of cash and threw the players a bone (which yes, included tuition, but that's basically a sunk cost to the school), it smacked of indentured servitude. I do think the full effects of NIL have not really been understood yet, and I think it will eventually cause even greater changes in college sports as we used to know it. And I think one of those changes will be to eventually let the public know how much NIL money a player makes. But overall, letting players profit off themselves, just like any other students can, is the right thing to do.

    Once again, calling Melinda Gates, calling Melinda Gates...

    9F
    I don't know her personally but I don't think funding Duke basketball players (some of whom will become very rich after spending one year at the Gothic Wonderland) is a high charitable priority of hers.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    I don't know her personally but I don't think funding Duke basketball players (some of whom will become very rich after spending one year at the Gothic Wonderland) is a high charitable priority of hers.
    David Rubenstein who is worth about 3.4 B is however a big fan of Duke basketball.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    K, not M... right? I mean... wow!
    Oops.

    Permit me to correct the teeny tiny typo. Sorry to reduce Tshiebwe's deal by close to a billion dollars

    1. Bronny James ($7.2M) and Arch Manning (#3.7M) are #1 and 2. The rich get richer! You can't be on social media for long until you hear about Livvy Dunne. She's #3 at $3.4M.
    2. Jared McCain is #16, valuation of $1.2M. Way to early to really know, of course. But it is significant that he's so high. I would guess Roach knows this. Makes me wonder what Lively and Whitehead were before they matriculated.
    3. Oscar Tshiebwe is #25 at $915K. Zack Edey is #39 at $813K. Drew Timme is #67 at $626K. Gradey Dick is #75 at $561K.
    4. Bacot is #79 at $551K. Flip is close behind at #83/$546K.
    5. I didn't see any other ACC players or Duke incoming freshmen, but I could have missed one. Unfortunately you cannot search by college, only high school.

    9F
    I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    There is a difference between legitimate endorsement deals (for example, check out Dereck Lively's tweet today about Lids -- https://twitter.com/DereckLively/sta...91204097458179 ) and money given to players from boosters and collectives that is merely thinly veiled pay-for-play (like the Texas A&M football recruiting collective, the Hunt family in Arkansas, and John Ruiz for Miami). If you want details about the latter, google can provide many links.

    It is my understanding that the vast majority of NIL stuff done by Duke players is legitimate endorsement opportunities, like Lively's tweet, the stuff being sold by The Brotherhood, or the ads that Paolo did a year ago. That said, I do think there is at least a little bit of the -- well -- slightly more shady stuff also happening for Duke athletes, as it is at pretty much every school these days. I don't want to get into details -- and I, frankly, don't have a lot of details -- but there are groups that will pay players to make appearances at charitable events or hospitals and stuff like that. It happens and I really don't have a problem with it.

    If I had to guess, I believe there are some schools and some players who are making really nice income from these shady NIL deals. We know for a fact that Nijel Pack is making $800k from John Ruiz to play at Miami this year and next. Rest assured, he is not alone in pulling down 6-figures to play at a certain school. I agree that $1.5 mil for Armando Bacot is probably a bit more than reality, but I would not be at all surprised to find out that he was making well over $500k this season and he could probably do the same if he choses to come back.

    -Jason "finding hard numbers -- actual verifiable stuff -- on any of these deals is almost impossible" Evans
    I didn't know there was merch for sale. I might buy some, but the website doesn't work.
    Hard at work making beautiful things.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    David Rubenstein who is worth about 3.4 B is however a big fan of Duke basketball.
    Yea, I'd think he'd be more likely to part with some of his billions to help out Duke BB. And I'm sure there are plenty of other wealthy Duke grads who might fund some of these NIL deals.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    Yea, I'd think he'd be more likely to part with some of his billions to help out Duke BB. And I'm sure there are plenty of other wealthy Duke grads who might fund some of these NIL deals.
    Rubenstein has donated hundreds of millions of dollars to Duke University. This has spanned Duke academics, endowment, financial aid, a new arts center, Duke libraries, Duke Jewish Life, Sanford School, and Innovation and Entrepreneurship Initiative. As far as I can tell, his Athletic donation came in the form of $10M in 2012. While not peanuts, it hasn't been the focus of his philanthropy to date. The arts center donation was $25M alone.

    I don't think Rubenstein is going to shell out to pay players to induce them to come to Duke -- not his MO.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edouble View Post
    I didn't know there was merch for sale. I might buy some, but the website doesn't work.
    The website works. You have to buy the Brotherhood bundle for $300 and that opens up the ability to buy other merch.

    I'm not sure there is a great business model, but that is how it works.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

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