This Week in the ACC - 2/27-3/5

[pfrduke]

Down to the last week. Before we get into seeding possibilities - and acknowledging that this has been covered in other threads - let’s just take a moment to appreciate the relative futility of the league as a whole. We’re sitting here almost in March and there’s a very real possibility there will be zero ACC teams in human polls next week, which would go well with the zero teams in the top 29 (Torvik) or top 33 (Pomeroy) of the leading dork polls (although Duke sits right at 25 in Sagarin).

Anyway, in the sorting of lesser giants, there are only five teams with a shot of a double bye, and Duke (on the outside looking in at the moment) needs basically a perfect storm to get there. Odds are very high that Pitt, Miami, UVA, and Clemson, in some order, will get to skip the first two days in Greensboro. Similarly, the Tuesday teams are all but set - the only theoretical switch is if BC wins out and Syracuse loses out, which is unlikely (especially since Syracuse gets to host GT and BC has to go to Wake). But plenty of final seed order among those teams - and the ones in the middle - will depend on how the week plays out.

Monday
[204]Florida State (7-11) (+7) hosts [45]North Carolina (10-8) (-9) (7:00, ESPN)

Tuesday
[34]Duke (12-6) (-5) hosts [50]NC State (12-7) (7:00, ESPN)
[38]Virginia (13-5) (-6) hosts [59]Clemson (13-5) (7:00, ACCN)
[111]Syracuse (9-9) (-8) hosts [196]Georgia Tech (4-14) (7:00, ACCNX)
[83]Wake Forest (10-8) (-10) hosts [172]Boston College (8-10) (7:00, ESPNU)
[281]Louisville (2-16) (+10) hosts [81]Virginia Tech (6-12) (9:00, ACCN)

Wednesday
[171]Notre Dame (2-16) (+5) hosts [55]Pittsburgh (14-4) (7:00, ESPNU)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday
[38]Virginia (13-5) (-19) hosts [281]Louisville (2-16) (2:00, ESPN2)
[172]Boston College (8-10) (-4) hosts [196]Georgia Tech (4-14) (2:30, ESPNU)
[81]Virginia Tech (6-12) (-12) hosts [204]Florida State (7-11) (4:00, ESPN2)
[111]Syracuse (9-9) (-1) hosts [83]Wake Forest (10-8) (5:00, ACCNX)
[37]Miami (14-5) (-5) hosts [55]Pittsburgh (14-4) (6:00, ACCN)
[45]North Carolina (10-8) (-2) hosts [34]Duke (12-6) (6:30, ESPN)
[59]Clemson (13-5) (-11) hosts [171]Notre Dame (2-16) (8:00, ACCN)

Sunday the regular season is already done!

ACC Non-Conference: 109-52
ACC v. Power 6: 23-32

Conference-Only Efficiency Ratings
Miami: +10.7
Clemson: +10.1
Pittsburgh: +9.6
Virginia: +7.0
Duke: +6.8
North Carolina: +5.7
NC State: +5.2
Wake Forest: +2.6
Syracuse: -2.0
Virginia Tech: -2.8
Boston College: -7.0
Notre Dame: -8.3
Florida State: -8.5
Georgia Tech: -13.1
Louisville: -17.4

[WV_Iron_Duke]

Really like your weekly summaries. Don’t watch much much ACC except for Duke.

[gofurman]

Really like your weekly summaries. Don’t watch much much ACC except for Duke.

Please FSU.

[OldPhiKap]

As we get to the last week, I want to again thank pfrduke for putting these together every week for a number of seasons now. Invaluable, thanks, Sporkz.

[CameronDuke]

Some sad news for UVa this week. Former head coach Terry Holland has died Sunday in Charlottesville after a battle with Alzheimer’s. He was 80. RIP Coach.

[OldPhiKap]

Some sad news for UVa this week. Former head coach Terry Holland has died Sunday in Charlottesville after a battle with Alzheimer’s. He was 80. RIP Coach.

Sad, he was a great competitor.

[UrinalCake]

Tuesday
[38]Virginia (13-5) (-6) hosts [59]Clemson (13-5) (7:00, ACCN)

I don't know who to root for here. I guess it would be whichever team is more likely to lose another game (thus giving us the the #4 seed in the ACCT if we win out) but with these two hosting the two worst teams in the conference on Saturday I don't think a second loss is going to happen. I guess I'll root for UVA to fall out of Q1 range for the CHeats (they are currently #28). Also UVA being -19 against Louisville feels insane.

[Dr. Maturin]

Duke's 3-point shooting in ACC play is a cromulent 35.2%, which is 7th in the league. That's a solid improvement from the early season numbers. Unfortunately, it's been somewhat offset by turnover issues. Duke's turnover rate in ACC play is 19.1%, which is 14th.


This is possibly as wide-open as I've ever seen the ACC POY race. KenPom's numbers say that Flip has been the best player in the league, followed by Bacot. I'm assuming the voters will rely more on counting stats than efficiency numbers. Tyree Appleby is leading the league in scoring. Will the voters pick a player from a Wake Forest team headed to the NIT for the second straight year? If not, I doubt they go with #2 scorer El Ellis, who has performed admirably on a hopeless team. After that, you have Terquavion Smith, Bacot, and Jarkel Joiner to round out the top 5 in scoring. Bacot was the preseason pick, and might end up as the default option for some voters. Still, it would be unusual for an ACC POY to come from a team so far down in the standings. If the voters want to reward a top player from a top team, Isaiah Wong is 9th in scoring and wouldn't be a bad choice.


Speaking of wide-open, who is going to win the ACCT this year? It's possible the best team in the league will be 5th or 6th and have to play 4 games. The metrics have Duke listed as the top team right now, but a) it's really close with 3 teams in the mid-30s of KenPom, and b) it's only that way because UVA and Miami have just taken bad losses. This feels like a year where a random team could make a run.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Duke's 3-point shooting in ACC play is a cromulent 35.2%, which is 7th in the league. That's a solid improvement from the early season numbers. Unfortunately, it's been somewhat offset by turnover issues. Duke's turnover rate in ACC play is 19.1%, which is 14th.


This is possibly as wide-open as I've ever seen the ACC POY race. KenPom's numbers say that Flip has been the best player in the league, followed by Bacot. I'm assuming the voters will rely more on counting stats than efficiency numbers. Tyree Appleby is leading the league in scoring. Will the voters pick a player from a Wake Forest team headed to the NIT for the second straight year? If not, I doubt they go with #2 scorer El Ellis, who has performed admirably on a hopeless team. After that, you have Terquavion Smith, Bacot, and Jarkel Joiner to round out the top 5 in scoring. Bacot was the preseason pick, and might end up as the default option for some voters. Still, it would be unusual for an ACC POY to come from a team so far down in the standings. If the voters want to reward a top player from a top team, Isaiah Wong is 9th in scoring and wouldn't be a bad choice.


Speaking of wide-open, who is going to win the ACCT this year? It's possible the best team in the league will be 5th or 6th and have to play 4 games. The metrics have Duke listed as the top team right now, but a) it's really close with 3 teams in the mid-30s of KenPom, and b) it's only that way because UVA and Miami have just taken bad losses. This feels like a year where a random team could make a run.

Duke's TO rate has rebounded a little of late. The team struggled a ton with TOs on the road against Miami (30.6%) and Virginia (32.3%). Since then, it has gotten much better. In the last four games, the TO% has been 12.2% vs ND, 22.5% @ Syracuse, 9.9% vs. Louisville, and 14.0% vs. VT. Those teams are all fairly poor at forcing TOs. In fact, those 4 teams all rank 291st or worse in Defensive TO%. It will be a real test of Duke to keep the TOs under control against NC State. They are not great at forcing TOs (111th in the nation), but Duke struggled in that department (among many other things) all the same at PNC Arena in January.

Since January 28th (the game at GT), Duke is shooting 37.4% from 3 and has the #9 overall defense in the nation according to T-Rank. If they can sustain the offense for the rest of the way, this is a good team.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Not sure where to put this, so it goes here in this thread.

Pittsburgh (25) joins Virginia (13) and Miami (16) in the AP Top 25 poll that was just released: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-col...l-poll?week=17

Duke is now up to 2nd among other teams receiving votes. Not to look ahead too much, but if Duke makes it to the ACC semis or finals without a loss, I think there's a good chance they end the season in the top 25 of the AP Poll and possibly within the top 16-20 depending on how far they go.

[robed deity]

Not sure where to put this, so it goes here in this thread.

Pittsburgh (25) joins Virginia (13) and Miami (16) in the AP Top 25 poll that was just released: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-col...l-poll?week=17

Duke is now up to 2nd among other teams receiving votes. Not to look ahead too much, but if Duke makes it to the ACC semis or finals without a loss, I think there's a good chance they end the season in the top 25 of the AP Poll and possibly within the top 16-20 depending on how far they go.

Evidence that many voters don't watch the games. Anyone who has watched Virginia the last 3 weeks wouldn't have the Cavs in the top 25 let alone 13.

[MChambers]

Please FSU.

Yes, I am hoping that Hubert takes his starters to the locker room with a minute left, so that the walk-ons can deal with the crowd rush.

[gumbomoop]

By my pre-disgruntled count, FSU has been outfought 4 times in the first 5 minutes. Otoh, Bacot has 2 PFs already.

[brevity]

Yes, I am hoping that Hubert takes his starters to the locker room with a minute left, so that the walk-ons can deal with the crowd rush.

Good times.



But why would FSU fans rush the court now, if they were to beat an 18-11 (10-8) team?

[cbarry]

By my pre-disgruntled count, FSU has been outfought 4 times in the first 5 minutes. Otoh, Bacot has 2 PFs already.

FSU is just dreadful.
Soft. Can’t take advantage of a ton of UNC turnovers. Plus UNC is shooting well.

Looks like it will be up to us to keep UNC out of the NCAA. Let’s do it!!

[CameronDuke]

FSU is a sad, scared pack of dogs this year.

[MChambers]

Good times.



But why would FSU fans rush the court now, if they were to beat an 18-11 (10-8) team?

UNC was the preseason #1?

[cbarry]

FSU is a sad, scared pack of dogs this year.

How the mighty have fallen. FSU used to be good! Now they are bottom feeders.
Plus, unfortunately, it looks like UNC has finally “figured it out”

Carolina in a veritable blowout at the half.

[ChrisP]

So much for this being the bright spot in a crappy Monday for me 🙄

[pfrduke]

11-18 from 3 in the first half (2-6 from 2). Hope they're getting those all out of their system...