This Week in the ACC - 2023 ACC Tournament

[aivroadstr]

Please someone check behind me, but I see a REAL POSSIBILITY of getting to the double-bye in the ACC Tourney. We need NC State to beat Clemson today and then Clemson lose again to UVA on Tuesday. If we continue our upward trajectory and show up on Tuesday, along with the Crazies, I expect us to have a better showing on Tuesday against NC State and win. And if the Cheats don't Cheat next Saturday, that should put us as the #4 seed for the ACC Tournament and a double-bye. If Clemson wins against NC State today, that would knock us to the #5 seed, because tie breaker belongs to them (they beat us 1/14). So be cheering State today (and today only ).

Final Seeding Projections
1) Miami 16-4 (WIN: FS, Pitt)
2) UVA 16-4 (WIN: Cheats, Clemson, Louisville) - tie breaker goes to Miami (12/20)
3) Pitt 15-5 (WIN: Syracuse, ND; LOSE: Miami)
4) Duke 14-6 (WIN: VT, NC State, Cheats)
5) NC State 13-7 (WIN: Clemson; LOSE: 5x National Champs)
6) Clemson 13-7 (WIN: ND; LOSE: NC State, UVA) - tie breaker goes to NC State for better overall record, being they would have split games in season.
7) Wake Forest 11-9 (WIN: ND, BC; LOSE: Syracuse)
8) Cheats 11-9 (WIN: FS; LOSE UVA, 21x ACC Tournament Champs)
9) Syracuse 11-9 (WIN: GT, WF; LOSE: Pitt) - tie breaker goes to Cheats (1/24)
10) Boston College 9-11 (WIN: GT; LOSE WF)
11) Virginia Tech 8-12 (WIN: Louisville, FS; LOSE 19x ACC Regular Season Champs)
12) Florida State 6-14 (LOSE: Miami, UNC, VT)
13) Georgia Tech 4-16 (WIN: Louisville; LOSE Syracuse, BC)
14) Notre Dame 2-18 (LOSE: WF, Pitt, Clemson) - shame for Mike Brey to end this way
15) Louisville 2-18 (LOSE: GT, VT, UVA) - tie breaker goes to ND (1/28)

#4 seeding puts us playing our first game on Thursday for Game 9 against the winner of NC State vs FS/GT. This is best case, as we would play a slightly fatigued NC State on Thursday. However, we would turnaround and face a tough Miami in Game 12 on Friday.

#5 seeding puts us playing FS/GT in Game 5 on Wed March 8th and then a rematch with Clemson for Game 9. Following this, we are destined to meet Miami Saturday for Game 12, which will happen regardless of #4 or #5 seeding.

I am certainly hopeful but our path to win the ACC Tournament this year is very difficult, though the double-bye would be extremely helpful. I am glad the tournament is in Greensboro, home crowd will also help.

Let's go DUKE!

[MartyClark]

Please someone check behind me, but I see a REAL POSSIBILITY of getting to the double-bye in the ACC Tourney. We need NC State to beat Clemson today and then Clemson lose again to UVA on Tuesday. If we continue our upward trajectory and show up on Tuesday, along with the Crazies, I expect us to have a better showing on Tuesday against NC State and win. And if the Cheats don't Cheat next Saturday, that should put us as the #4 seed for the ACC Tournament and a double-bye. If Clemson wins against NC State today, that would knock us to the #5 seed, because tie breaker belongs to them (they beat us 1/14). So be cheering State today (and today only ).

Final Seeding Projections
1) Miami 16-4 (WIN: FS, Pitt)
2) UVA 16-4 (WIN: Cheats, Clemson, Louisville) - tie breaker goes to Miami (12/20)
3) Pitt 15-5 (WIN: Syracuse, ND; LOSE: Miami)
4) Duke 14-6 (WIN: VT, NC State, Cheats)
5) NC State 13-7 (WIN: Clemson; LOSE: 5x National Champs)
6) Clemson 13-7 (WIN: ND; LOSE: NC State, UVA) - tie breaker goes to NC State for better overall record, being they would have split games in season.
7) Wake Forest 11-9 (WIN: ND, BC; LOSE: Syracuse)
8) Cheats 11-9 (WIN: FS; LOSE UVA, 21x ACC Tournament Champs)
9) Syracuse 11-9 (WIN: GT, WF; LOSE: Pitt) - tie breaker goes to Cheats (1/24)
10) Boston College 9-11 (WIN: GT; LOSE WF)
11) Virginia Tech 8-12 (WIN: Louisville, FS; LOSE 19x ACC Regular Season Champs)
12) Florida State 6-14 (LOSE: Miami, UNC, VT)
13) Georgia Tech 4-16 (WIN: Louisville; LOSE Syracuse, BC)
14) Notre Dame 2-18 (LOSE: WF, Pitt, Clemson) - shame for Mike Brey to end this way
15) Louisville 2-18 (LOSE: GT, VT, UVA) - tie breaker goes to ND (1/28)

#4 seeding puts us playing our first game on Thursday for Game 9 against the winner of NC State vs FS/GT. This is best case, as we would play a slightly fatigued NC State on Thursday. However, we would turnaround and face a tough Miami in Game 12 on Friday.

#5 seeding puts us playing FS/GT in Game 5 on Wed March 8th and then a rematch with Clemson for Game 9. Following this, we are destined to meet Miami Saturday for Game 12, which will happen regardless of #4 or #5 seeding.

I am certainly hopeful but our path to win the ACC Tournament this year is very difficult, though the double-bye would be extremely helpful. I am glad the tournament is in Greensboro, home crowd will also help.

Let's go DUKE!

I guess that I'm one of those "glass is half empty"guys. I hope you are right on Duke's finish to the regular season. I have concerns about the NC State game and I always have concerns about the game with the Cheats.

Let's goDuke

[Bob Green]

…and I always have concerns about the game with the Cheats.

I agree. Winning in Chapel Hill will be a challenge. We’re at the time in the season where one must take one game at a time. The double bye is in striking distance so let’s take care of today’s business by smoking the turkeys.

[arnie]

I guess that I'm one of those "glass is half empty"guys. I hope you are right on Duke's finish to the regular season. I have concerns about the NC State game and I always have concerns about the game with the Cheats.

Let's goDuke

Agree on both and I think maybe the home game against the Pack may be hardest. There is a convoluted way Duke gets the double bye with another loss; but not thinking of that yet.

[kshepinthehouse]

I’m hoping we will have an early game so I can take my son

[CDu]

Agree on both and I think maybe the home game against the Pack may be hardest. There is a convoluted way Duke gets the double bye with another loss; but not thinking of that yet.

It isn’t that convoluted. Just really unlikely. It requires Clemson to lose all remaining games.

Basically if Clemson beats Notre Dame at home or upsets State or UVa, we can’t get the 4th seed with 7 losses.

[arnie]

It isn’t that convoluted. Just really unlikely. It requires Clemson to lose all remaining games.

Basically if Clemson beats Notre Dame at home or upsets State or UVa, we can’t get the 4th seed with 7 losses.

Pitt can also lose out and if we beat Pack and lose another; believe we’re also a double bye team.

[gumbomoop]

It isn’t that convoluted. Just really unlikely. It requires Clemson to lose all remaining games.

Basically if Clemson beats Notre Dame at home or upsets State or UVa, we can’t get the 4th seed with 7 losses.

It’s less convoluted even than this, for Duke to get 3-seed.

• Duke wins out
• Pitt loses at ND and at Miami
• Clemson loses at NCSt and at UVa.

Not difficult at all to see Clemson losing those 2 tough away games. Pitt at ND is close to a toss-up. Miami should beat Pitt in Miami. I don’t expect Duke to win out, but it’s definitely possible.

This scenario will still have plenty of life if tonight Duke wins and Clemson loses.

I still expect Duke to finish 6th, play VT on ACCT Wednesday.

ETA — Ha, didn’t see that Clemson-NCSt was a noon start, and with Clemson crushing near halftime, the 3-seed scenario will probably be kaput by 2 pm today.

[Bob Green]

• Duke wins out
• Pitt loses at ND and at Miami
• Clemson loses at NCSt and at UVa.

Not difficult at all to see Clemson losing those 2 tough away games.

Clemson 47, NC State 27 with two minutes left in 1st half.

Edit: Halftime score is Clemson 54, NC State 29

[gumbomoop]

Clemson 47, NC State 27 with two minutes left in 1st half.

Right. See my ETA in post just before yours.

I’ll return to my default expectation, stated in that post, as well, that we finish 6th and play VT on ACCT Wed. I guess tonight’s game is a practice run.

[Bob Green]

Right. See my ETA in post just before yours.

I’ll return to my default expectation, stated in that post, as well, that we finish 6th and play VT on ACCT Wed. I guess tonight’s game is a practice run.

Hopefully, we can finish 5th. I’m not clued in on all the seed scenarios.

[dlmzzz]

Hopefully, we can finish 5th. I’m not clued in on all the seed scenarios.

If we win out and all other games go according to projections, we come in 5th and play the winner of FSU and GA Tech.

http://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=accm

Updated:
Ian pointed out in a different thread that we don't have to win out to finish 5th, we just have to beat NC State (even if we lose our other two games). I assume winning out is the only way to keep a slim chance of getting to 4th.

[gumbomoop]

I’ve been focused on thinking Duke will finish either 3d or 6th. Won’t try to explain, as I’ve posted such scenarios on both this and the earlier “Help with ACC bracket matrix” threads.

I did not see, really didn’t think about the possibility, that Clemson would crush the Pack. Now that’s happened, however, I begin to see that Clemson is now a dangerous team, with a NET-chip on its shoulder. So if I now imagine Clemson winning at UVa, things get interesting. Depending mostly on results from a few key games, Duke could finish anywhere from 3-8.

The key games are:

• All Duke games
• UVa @ UNC
• Clemson @ UVa
• Pitt @ ND

Duke gets 3-seed if we win out, Clemson wins its final 2, UVa loses to both UNC and Clemson, Pitt loses 2 of 3 (home v. Cuse, away to ND and Miami).

To be clear, I do not hope UNC beats UVa tonight. But things will get 3-seed-intriguing if Duke and UNC win tonight, and especially interesting if Cuse also upsets Pitt.

[DavidBenAkiva]

It seems there are too many contingencies for me to worry about seeding right now.

Duke needs to win tonight against VT. None of the best-case scenarios can happen without that.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The OP is jinxing the hell out of today.
So says both Miami and State.

Better not be a trend.

[aivroadstr]

Wow! Today’s action threw some unexpected curveballs. FS taking out Miami, Cheats cheatin with win over UVA, Clemson taking NC State behind the woodshed.

Updated predictions:
1) Miami 15-5 (WIN: Pitt)
2) Pitt 15-5 (WIN: ND; LOSE: Miami)
3) UVA 15-5 (WIN: Clemson, Louisville)
4) Clemson 14-6 (WIN: ND; LOSE: UVA)
5) Duke 14-6 (WIN: VT, NC State, Cheats)
6) NC State 12-8 (WIN: LOSE: 5x National Champs)
7) Cheats 11-9 (WIN: FS; LOSE: 21x ACC Tournament Champs)
8) Syracuse 11-9 (WIN: GT, WF)
8) Wake Forest 11-9 (WIN: BC; LOSE: Syracuse)
10) Boston College 9-11 (WIN: GT; LOSE WF)
11) Virginia Tech 8-12 (WIN: Louisville, FS; LOSE 19x ACC Regular Season Champs)
12) Florida State 7-13 (LOSE: UNC, VT)
13) Georgia Tech 4-16 (LOSE Syracuse, BC)
14) Notre Dame 2-18 (LOSE: Pitt, Clemson) - shame for Mike Brey to end this way
15) Louisville 2-18 (LOSE: VT, UVA) - tie breaker goes to ND (1/28)

[aivroadstr]

Double bye still within reach. Scenario 1: Pitt loses last two games - possible (both road games @ND @Miami. Scenario 2: Clemson loses last two games - unlikely (@UVA, home ND). Scenario 3: UVA loses last two home games - unlikely (home vs Clemson and Louisville). Of course this assumes we win out (home vs NC State, @UNC). I don’t see any other possibility.

[JasonEvans]

Wow! Today’s action threw some unexpected curveballs. FS taking out Miami, Cheats cheatin with win over UVA, Clemson taking NC State behind the woodshed.

Updated predictions:
1) Miami 15-5 (WIN: Pitt)
2) Pitt 15-5 (WIN: ND; LOSE: Miami)
3) UVA 15-5 (WIN: Clemson, Louisville)
4) Clemson 14-6 (WIN: ND; LOSE: UVA)
5) Duke 14-6 (WIN: VT, NC State, Cheats)
6) NC State 12-8 (WIN: LOSE: 5x National Champs)
7) Cheats 11-9 (WIN: FS; LOSE: 21x ACC Tournament Champs)
8) Syracuse 11-9 (WIN: GT, WF)
8) Wake Forest 11-9 (WIN: BC; LOSE: Syracuse)
10) Boston College 9-11 (WIN: GT; LOSE WF)
11) Virginia Tech 8-12 (WIN: Louisville, FS; LOSE 19x ACC Regular Season Champs)
12) Florida State 7-13 (LOSE: UNC, VT)
13) Georgia Tech 4-16 (LOSE Syracuse, BC)
14) Notre Dame 2-18 (LOSE: Pitt, Clemson) - shame for Mike Brey to end this way
15) Louisville 2-18 (LOSE: VT, UVA) - tie breaker goes to ND (1/28)

Spork worthy...

[duke2x]

Some updates after tonight playing with mred's website. Feel free to make corrections. Locks are in bold.

1. Pitt/UVA/Miami
2. TBD. Can be Duke/Pitt/UVA/Miami
3. TBD. This is Miami's floor. Can also be Duke/Pitt/UVA.
4. Ceiling for Clemson. Can also be Duke/Pitt/UVA.
5. Duke/Pitt/Clemson. This is the floor for all 3 teams.
6. NCSU (12-8)
7. UNC
8. Syracuse/Wake. Syracuse and Wake still have to play. The game is @Syracuse.
9. Syracuse/Wake/BC. Wake is locked into the 8-9 game.
10. Syracuse/BC. This the floor for Syracuse and BC.
11. FSU/VT winner. FSU and VT have yet to play. The game is @VT.
12. FSU/VT loser.
13. GT
14. ND/Louisville. ND has tiebreaker.
15. ND/Louisville.

[brevity]

Feel free to make corrections. Locks are in bold.

6. NCSU (12-8)
7. UNC

There is a path, however unlikely, that would allow UNC to tie NCSU and win the tiebreaker for the 6 seed. They would have to win on Saturday (boo), and then depend on Pitt winning at Miami and Louisville winning at UVA.