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  1. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    And our only two road wins. Most of our other road losses were by double digits with the exception being VA tech. Our offense was bad against UNC and really bad against Miami. Not trying to be pessimistic but I have a hard time finding a path to victory in this one. Offensive rebounds would be one but Virginia does a good job of limiting those. The only thing I can come up with is something unexpected happening like Whitehead coming back and scoring 20 pts.
    Is Whitehead even gonna play Saturday?
       

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Music man55 View Post
    Is Whitehead even gonna play Saturday?
    I don’t think a home knows yet.
       

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    I don’t think a home knows yet.
    Huh??
       

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Music man55 View Post
    Huh??
    Stupid auto correct. I don’t think anyone knows about Whitehead yet.
       

  5. #45
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    Stupid auto correct. I don’t think anyone knows about Whitehead yet.
    In Jim Sumner’s latest article he said Whitehead would not play again till mid-February at best. Now I’m not sure if he is considering the 11th part of mid-February and simply meant that is the earliest game he can possibly play. Or he meant that the game on 2/14 at home against ND is actually the next game he could possibly play since that is closer to the literal “mid-February”.

    I do think it is more likely his first game back would be a home game against a lesser opponent, but that could just be a coincidence…
       

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
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    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    Most of our other road losses were by double digits with the exception being VA tech.
    We played well against Clemson too. That was our best road performance IMO given the quality of opponent. If we play as well as we did against Clemson and finish better, we’ll have a chance.
       

  7. #47

    Excellent perspective

    Quote Originally Posted by Wahoo2000 View Post
    Just some additional thoughts on the very good preview/analysis provided here (as usual):

    Centers: Shedrick started the year off pretty hot (efficiency wise) but has continued to struggle (as he did last year) with fouling issues. He gets a little to handsy at times, and it affects his defense. Eventually, Bennett "pulled the plug", demoting him to the bench, and until yesterday, nearly out of the rotation completely. Like nearly EVERY player on Virginia's roster (maybe excepting the PGs), there's a "good Shedrick" and a "bad Shedrick". Good Shedrick is an excellent shot blocker and finisher at the rim of dishes and oops. He's also an underrated shooter (excellent from the FT line) though he takes VERY few shots outside the paint. Bad Shedrick picks up silly fouls, and really struggles with his hedge-and-recover responsibilities vs the pick-and-roll (often failing to turn the guard back toward the screen side, or bumping into/off his defensive teammate as he attempts to recover). His core strength is lower than expected from a player his size and his center of gravity is high - easy for opposing bigs to move him without much resistance. Tuesday, Bennett actually had him mix in some drop coverage with the pick and roll that seemed to help, and Shedrick exaggerated contact on backdowns picking up a couple charges. TBD if these changes can mitigate his major weaknesses moving forward. I would expect Caffaro to play 3 min or less - almost a total nonfactor barring something surprising.

    Forwards: Gardner and Vander Plas have been hot and cold for stretches during the season. Last few games, Gardner has been closer to his ceiling, and Vander Plas has been a non factor. It is believed Vander Plas has a nagging back issue. When it flares up, it affects his movement and shooting and he goes from A-tier role player to C-tier quickly. Has been the latter lately. If he hits a couple 3s early though - watch out.

    Wings: Franklin's productivity on offense comes down to one thing - is he hitting his 3s? When he is, he can go "John Starks" hot and it tends to expand to the rest of his game - midrange, drives to the rim, getting to the line, etc. It all starts with him hitting from deep. Unfortunately, he can also go "John Starks" cold. When that happens, nothing seems to go right for him with regards to scoring. He's still a capable and willing (if unspectacular) passer, and will work his butt off on D whether his O is working or not. Dunn is going to be a DeAndre Hunter/Mikal Bridges-type at some point. Not yet though, despite the fact that he does show more than the occasional flash of that talent. He's ideally suited to be a small-ball 4 right now. Still needs a little more seasoning with his ball handling and shooting to maximize his potential on the perimeter. PT could be anywhere from 3-20 min depending on how he's performing. Still a little thin/weak to really bang with bigger bodies. McKneeley is like a Joe Harris/Kyle Guy blend. Not quite the shooter that Guy was, and not quite the all-around player Harris was - though he compares decently with where both were as true frosh. He has been coming on lately, showing a little more confidence on both ends. Seems to be getting more comfortable in the systems here. If I had to pick a "surprise" player to have a big game, it'd be McKneeley. He's lately been supplanting Franklin's late game minutes when Franklin is missing shots and McKneeley is playing well.

    Guards: Beekman is key - he injured his hamstring pretty significantly in early Dec and was almost a total nonfactor (for a guy playing 30+ min) for most of the next month. In that stretch, Virginia lose extremely close games @ Miami and Pitt, and lost at home to Houston by 8. IMO Virginia goes a MINIMUM of 2-1 in those game with a healthy Beekman. Sources close to the program indicate Beekman is still not 100%, but his explosiveness/1st step are about 90% there. Most of the lingering issues are tied to RE-active movement (i.e. defense). He has excellent anticipation, but int he rare instance he is fooled by a change of direction, he still lacks the elite quickness needed to recover and keep his man in front consistently. When he is full 100%, anything short of prime Allen Iverson isn't beating Beekman off the bounce with speed. Clark is a warrior, and seems to deliver when it really counts, but is not above some head-scratching turnovers or blown defensive assignments. He's also at times exploitable if an opposing guards wants to get physical and back him down in the high/mid post for an easy turn around. Based on what I've witnessed, usually you want that guard to be at least 6'2ish, have excellent vision/court awareness in case of help coming, and to have a noticeable weight advantage on Clark (clark is shockingly strong for his size, and due to low center of gravity harder to move than you'd expect).

    My prediction- If Virginia plays with the focus and intensity they had in the 1st half vs NC State, Virginia will win (assuming no crazy outlier like Duke shooting 61% from 3 on solid volume). If Virginia is up-and-down with their effort and focus, especially with regards to their defensive assignments and rotations, the game will be there for the taking if Duke plays pretty well (not A+ game, a B/B+ will probably do it).
    Wahoo2000, Thank you for your in-depth, objective analysis. Great to have you on our board.

    No surprise, but I'm struck by the veteran nature of your team vs. us young Dukies. Makes a difference.

    Question: Since you've watched so many UVA games, I'm interested to learn your perspective on how the refs call your games [presuming high quality refs]. In fast-paced games, there is likely to be more variance in how plays are called, given the many split-second decisions refs have to make.

    But in the slower-paced UVA mode -- if they are controlling the tempo -- I wonder if you see an overall pattern. Does it just depend on the particular refs? Do the refs generally "let them play," especially down low, given the pack line defense?

    Thanks for any perspective you can share.

    Hoping for a great game, played well by both teams.







    Looking forward to the game. Personally, I hope that both teams play well, and may the better team win.
    “I love it. Coach, when we came here, we had a three-hour meeting about the core values. If you really represent the core values, it means diving on the floor, sacrificing your body for your teammates, no matter how much you’re up by or how much you’re down by, always playing hard.” -- Zion

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by hustleplays View Post
    No surprise, but I'm struck by the veteran nature of your team vs. us young Dukies. Makes a difference.
    Clearly Virginia is much more experienced than Duke. But it's worth noting that of the eight members of Virginia's rotation, only three have spent more than one season on Virginia's team. Franklin and Gardner transferred in before last season, Vander Plas transferred in before this season, and McKneely and Dunn are freshmen. Only Beekman, Clark, and Shedrick have been Wahoos for more than one season.

    Obviously Duke only has one player who's been a Blue Devil for more than one season, and one is less than three. But it seems to me some people seem to credit opposing transfers as "veterans" while discounting the transfers on Duke's team, when talking about our youth.

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    We played well against Clemson too. That was our best road performance IMO given the quality of opponent. If we play as well as we did against Clemson and finish better, we’ll have a chance.
    That’s true. Seems like we had an eight point lead isn’t the second half then had a really long drought to end the game.
       

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Clearly Virginia is much more experienced than Duke. But it's worth noting that of the eight members of Virginia's rotation, only three have spent more than one season on Virginia's team. Franklin and Gardner transferred in before last season, Vander Plas transferred in before this season, and McKneely and Dunn are freshmen. Only Beekman, Clark, and Shedrick have been Wahoos for more than one season.

    Obviously Duke only has one player who's been a Blue Devil for more than one season, and one is less than three. But it seems to me some people seem to credit opposing transfers as "veterans" while discounting the transfers on Duke's team, when talking about our youth.
    There are of course at least 3 ways experience/youth is relevant: (1) college game experience; physical maturity; team continuity.

    Ironically, looking at years in the program makes for an even more stark contrast than looking at game experience or years of college bball.

    UVa’s top 8 currently have 733 games played, and they had 19 (20 if you include Shedrick’s redshirt year) years of experience in college coming into this year, of which 10 (11) were at UVa.

    Duke’s top 8 have 451 games, 9 prior years, of which only 2 were in the program.

    If we extend to the top 9 players, that difference grows: UVa with 819, 22 (24), and 13 (15); Duke with 496, 10, and 3.

    So any way you look at it, UVa has a massive advantage in experience.

  11. #51
    For what it is worth Duke does usually play well in Charlottesville.

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by AGDukesky View Post
    In Jim Sumner’s latest article he said Whitehead would not play again till mid-February at best. Now I’m not sure if he is considering the 11th part of mid-February and simply meant that is the earliest game he can possibly play. Or he meant that the game on 2/14 at home against ND is actually the next game he could possibly play since that is closer to the literal “mid-February”.

    I do think it is more likely his first game back would be a home game against a lesser opponent, but that could just be a coincidence…
    In Jim's article, he talks about Duke's two leading scorers (Flip & Jeremy) averaging 28 points per game (total). Since the ACC began Duke has only 3 teams with only two double figure scorers. I suggest you read the article to see how those teams did in the NCAAT. This season Duke is 9th in PPG, 12th FG %, 12th 3-point %, and 14th TO differential. Coach Scheyer has even said this team is not a good jump shooting team. I'm wondering what the coaches are working on for the upcoming Virginia game. The Cavalier defense seems to prevent inside scoring with the Pack-Line defense. That would suggest the best way to beat them is by making 3-point shots, but Duke is not a good 3-point shooting team. It's going to be interesting to see how Duke responds after the Miami massacre.

    GoDuke!

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    In Jim's article, he talks about Duke's two leading scorers (Flip & Jeremy) averaging 28 points per game (total). Since the ACC began Duke has only 3 teams with only two double figure scorers. I suggest you read the article to see how those teams did in the NCAAT. This season Duke is 9th in PPG, 12th FG %, 12th 3-point %, and 14th TO differential. Coach Scheyer has even said this team is not a good jump shooting team. I'm wondering what the coaches are working on for the upcoming Virginia game. The Cavalier defense seems to prevent inside scoring with the Pack-Line defense. That would suggest the best way to beat them is by making 3-point shots, but Duke is not a good 3-point shooting team. It's going to be interesting to see how Duke responds after the Miami massacre.

    GoDuke!
    Yes that’s why I said earlier it’s hard for me to see a path to victory in this one unless something unexpected happens.
       

  14. #54
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    Yes that’s why I said earlier it’s hard for me to see a path to victory in this one unless something unexpected happens.
    I feel the same way. I'll be happy to be wrong, but I will be surprised.

    GoDuke!

  15. #55

    Interesting analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    There are of course at least 3 ways experience/youth is relevant: (1) college game experience; physical maturity; team continuity.

    Ironically, looking at years in the program makes for an even more stark contrast than looking at game experience or years of college bball.

    UVa’s top 8 currently have 733 games played, and they had 19 (20 if you include Shedrick’s redshirt year) years of experience in college coming into this year, of which 10 (11) were at UVa.

    Duke’s top 8 have 451 games, 9 prior years, of which only 2 were in the program.

    If we extend to the top 9 players, that difference grows: UVa with 819, 22 (24), and 13 (15); Duke with 496, 10, and 3.

    So any way you look at it, UVa has a massive advantage in experience.
    CDU, thanks for the analysis. I like your breaking out the three dimensions: college game experience; physical maturity; team continuity.

    Tough challenge for us on Saturday.
    “I love it. Coach, when we came here, we had a three-hour meeting about the core values. If you really represent the core values, it means diving on the floor, sacrificing your body for your teammates, no matter how much you’re up by or how much you’re down by, always playing hard.” -- Zion

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    Yes that’s why I said earlier it’s hard for me to see a path to victory in this one unless something unexpected happens.
    Well, of course it's hard to see the path to victory without the unexpected. That's why the expectation is that UVa will win.

    It doesn't take a complicated formula for the upset to happen. We probably need to have one of our good 3pt shooting games (UVa is not good at defending the 3; while we've been a poor 3pt shooting team overall, we HAVE managed to shoot 39% or better from 3pt range 9 times this season, going 8-1 in those games). It's just that the expectation isn't a win. If we shoot 40% from 3 and UVa has a sub-30% night, I think we would stand a pretty decent chance of winning. Of course, the odds of that are not great, which is why we only have about a 1 in 4 chance of winning tonight.

  17. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Well, of course it's hard to see the path to victory without the unexpected. That's why the expectation is that UVa will win.

    It doesn't take a complicated formula for the upset to happen. We probably need to have one of our good 3pt shooting games (UVa is not good at defending the 3; while we've been a poor 3pt shooting team overall, we HAVE managed to shoot 39% or better from 3pt range 9 times this season, going 8-1 in those games). It's just that the expectation isn't a win. If we shoot 40% from 3 and UVa has a sub-30% night, I think we would stand a pretty decent chance of winning. Of course, the odds of that are not great, which is why we only have about a 1 in 4 chance of winning tonight.
    Yes but I mean something more unpredictable than that. Like Mitchell, Blakes hitting 2+ threes total. Schutt hitting a couple of shots, Whitehead coming back and going off, etc
       

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Well, of course it's hard to see the path to victory without the unexpected. That's why the expectation is that UVa will win.

    It doesn't take a complicated formula for the upset to happen. We probably need to have one of our good 3pt shooting games (UVa is not good at defending the 3; while we've been a poor 3pt shooting team overall, we HAVE managed to shoot 39% or better from 3pt range 9 times this season, going 8-1 in those games). It's just that the expectation isn't a win. If we shoot 40% from 3 and UVa has a sub-30% night, I think we would stand a pretty decent chance of winning. Of course, the odds of that are not great, which is why we only have about a 1 in 4 chance of winning tonight.
    Yes, if we hit a good percentage of our 3s, and our defense plays like it has in most games this season, I think we will win. My main concern is those 3-pointers.

    GoDuke!

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    Yes, if we hit a good percentage of our 3s, and our defense plays like it has in most games this season, I think we will win. My main concern is those 3-pointers.

    GoDuke!
    Need to weather the storm early. And avoid long scoring droughts.
       

  20. #60
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    Need to weather the storm early. And avoid long scoring droughts.
    Yeh, if the guys don't play inspired basketball from the opening tip, I'll be surprised. They've had a chance to reset and make sure they don't come out flat against a Virginia team that plays physical basketball.

    GoDuke!

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