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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    As you mentioned, the issue is yardage. Bennett is 53. Hamilton is 74 (despite looking like 53). Larranaga is 73. Can't imagine either coaching past 3 years from the end of this season (RoyWill retired at 70; Coach K at 74). Boeheim is the oldest coach in the NCAA at 78.
    I conveniently forgot Boeheim. We will have retired some SERIOUS coaching talent in the ACC over these last and coming years.
       

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Santa Clara, CA
    I don't expect Duke to win this game. I'll be down if that happens, but I will have expected it. This was obviously going to be a tough week on the road, and 0-2 was certainly possible. It still may turn out that way. I hope not. But if Duke pulls off a win, the 1-1 week should be celebrated.

    That being said, I think Duke wins by (surprise) controlling the boards and playing tough defense. Oh, and REALLY cut down on the turnovers. And make your free throws, boys!

    UVAs D is solid once again, so a Duke offensive flurry would be surprising (welcome, but surprising). It will be interesting to see how the new coach and staff game plans this one.

    On a player level, I hope to see:

    • A continuation of Lively's recent performances (but please cut out the 3's)
    • A rebound (not literally, thought boards are fine) by Proctor
    • Renewed aggression in the lane by Flip
    • A 3 from Grandison
    • Solid post work from Young
    • A few minutes from Whitehead (just to show he's back on the road to recovery)
    • A little of everything from Mitchell (except turnovers)
    • Roach leading the team literally and in scoring (but not in FG attempts)


    Oh and did I say less turnovers? Yes? Well, I'll say it again - take care of the ball!

    If Duke does all these things and still loses, I will definitely see the silver lining.

    9F
    I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Yeah. Coach K really understood how to attack the packline (14-5 against Bennett). Where the packline often opens is the 3, and that isn't exactly our forte this year.

    This will be a tough, tough game for Scheyer. And agreed; it'll take a great Duke game to pull this one out. I wanna see a) as few turnovers as possible, b) continued solid rebounding, and c) not settling for an outrageous number of 3pt shots.
    Agree with these keys to the game for us. We are not good at a) and c) so will need to be really smart with the ball. Pack line success depends on good 3 pt shooting and dribble penetration with kick outs to open shooting. In the latter we really need to not make crazy and careless passes. Proctor/Roach will need to play patient and smart.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Nov 2022
    Location
    Atlanta
    The team has seemed pretty good at responding to the coaching staff this year. After a loss or coming out of a timeout, you can usually see pretty easily what the coaches have been stressing by watching what the team does. I think that's a testament to Scheyer, and I think that's a good sign for this weekend. I would guess the coaches are preaching protecting the ball and toughness. If those things are there, I think we've got a good chance to win. I don't think there have been many times in recent years where we go into a game at JPJ thinking this will be an easy won, but we have a great record there.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Clark drives to pass, so it will be important for our shotblockers to stay home as long as possible if and when he gets into the lane, because challenging his shot will absolutely result in a dumpoff pass for a layup or dunk by one of the bigs.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Maturin View Post
    And for the love of God, don't overcommit to help when Clark drives - he's looking to pass!
    Just want to emphasize this point. Imo, whoever’s guarding Clark might challenge his shot from whatever angle, but no help D other than hands high or feint toward him but staying with one’s own man. Also, no help from wing, which results in leaving 3-bombers for Clark to get it to. Just make it a bit more difficult for Clark to score on some drives.

    Yes, Clark could beat us with his own 2-pt drives, but that’s less likely than his beating us with assists for dunks and open 3s.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Nov 2022
    Location
    Atlanta
    Good point. Lively should be able to block Clark without leaving the floor, we should use that to our advantage.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    I will be attending the game Saturday at the JPJ with a friend that has season tickets and is a huge UVa fan. This is my first Duke road game since at GT in 2014. I have been to a couple games at Cameron since then. I am wondering if Duke will have a strong contingent of fans there Saturday. I am sure it will be near capacity. UVa really has some good fans and they show up for Duke and other prominent ACC programs. If you have never been, the JPJ is an excellent place to take in a basketball game for fans. There is not a bad seat in the arena.

    Let’s Go Duke!

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Nov 2022
    Location
    Atlanta
    Really big game for us mentally this weekend. The tough stretch was UNC, Miami, UVA. Winning 2/3 would be huge. We've also got a stretch of easier games (easier, no guarantees) coming up. ND at home. @ Syracuse, but I feel like we can handle that zone. Louisville at home (can we beat them by more than we beat GT?), revenge games at home against VT and NC State, and then UNC. 4 of those last 6 are at home. UNC is going to be fired up for that finale, but they also seem to be unraveling. Hopefully, that continues.

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Van Nuys, CA
    Quote Originally Posted by kako View Post
    I don't expect Duke to win this game. I'll be down if that happens, but I will have expected it. This was obviously going to be a tough week on the road, and 0-2 was certainly possible. It still may turn out that way. I hope not. But if Duke pulls off a win, the 1-1 week should be celebrated.

    That being said, I think Duke wins by (surprise) controlling the boards and playing tough defense. Oh, and REALLY cut down on the turnovers. And make your free throws, boys!

    UVAs D is solid once again, so a Duke offensive flurry would be surprising (welcome, but surprising). It will be interesting to see how the new coach and staff game plans this one.

    On a player level, I hope to see:

    • A continuation of Lively's recent performances (but please cut out the 3's)
    • A rebound (not literally, thought boards are fine) by Proctor
    • Renewed aggression in the lane by Flip
    • A 3 from Grandison
    • Solid post work from Young
    • A few minutes from Whitehead (just to show he's back on the road to recovery)
    • A little of everything from Mitchell (except turnovers)
    • Roach leading the team literally and in scoring (but not in FG attempts)


    Oh and did I say less turnovers? Yes? Well, I'll say it again - take care of the ball!

    If Duke does all these things and still loses, I will definitely see the silver lining.

    9F
    Agree with this . I can’t understand blow out losses this late in the season. They are not inexperienced players 23 games played. Pride compete . You have to shoot accurately to beat UVA. Not expecting a win just 100% better effort than Monday
       

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Nov 2022
    Location
    Atlanta
    Anyone good with stats have any idea how we typically shoot from 3 against UVA (especially AT UVA) compared to our 3P% for the season? I have the feeling we usually shoot higher than average.

  11. #31
    I expect us to play very well, but come up short. We don't shoot the 3 well enough to win this game. I would've signed up for 2-2 when looking at our last 4. We should have a strong chance to go 5-1 or 4-2 to end the year.

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Nov 2022
    Location
    Atlanta
    Ah, a little faith everybody. We've actually shot the 3 pretty well lately, not counting the Miami game, but including the VT game where we shot almost 40%.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    So Monday night sucked. No way around it. Saturday doesn't get much, if any, easier. Hopefully the team is better prepared to play this weekend than they were on Monday. If they are, they can win. If not, they will lose again.

    UVa has been a steady presence in the top 10-15 of the metrics rankings this year: #14 in KenPom, #15 in Torvik. It's not a vintage Tony Bennett team, but it's still a very good team. They still play the pack line defense, and although it isn't as good as it was in Bennett's 2010s heyday, it's still a top-25 level defense. They make hitting 2s difficult, they do well on the defensive glass, and they do a good job of using their lower bodies to create contact so as to avoid foul calls. It's a very well-coached team, even if it isn't quite the optimal lineup for Bennett's system. On offense, they control the tempo (6th slowest pace in the country), avoid turnovers (8th best in the country), and they hit their 3s.

    Centers: Kadin Shedrick (6'11", 230lb redshirt junior) has logged the most starts, although his starting spot has been usurped of late. He's by far the most talented center on the team, with good length and athleticism. But for whatever reason, he just hasn't found a consistent spot in Bennett's circle of trust. The former top-70 recruit is likely to come off the bench against us. He's their best shot blocker and dunk threat, but he just has never put it all together. The other true center on the roster is Francisco Caffaro (7'0", 250lb redshirt senior from Argentina). Caffaro DEFINITELY fits the Bennett mold, a big, burly space eater who sets screens and loves contact. Unfortunately, his skill level has never arrived, and as such he's remained a backup over his 5 years. He only shoots near the rim, and is a good rebounder. That said, he's been dealing with a foot injury and has missed several games. But even if he plays, it will be a bit role.

    Forwards: The Hoos start a pair of forwards instead. Jayden Gardner (6'7", 235lb fifth year senior transfer from ECU) is the better of the two frontcourt players. He's a well-built guy with a decent shooting touch and solid post moves. His lack of height hinders him from being truly great, but he's still a very good player whose stat line understates how good he is (somewhat deflated by pace of play, and playing fewer minutes this year). The other starter is Ben Vander Plas (6'8", 235lb grad transfer from Ohio). Vander Plas is a stretch big with decent 3pt touch and overall skill level including the ability to dribble and pass. He's not overly athletic, and not a big rebounder, but he's a good system guy who fills his role after being a star at a lower level for the previous 3 years.

    Wings: Armaan Franklin (6'4", 195lb senior transfer from Indiana) is the team's leading scorer. Franklin struggled a bit with his shot last year, but has been a really good shooter and scorer this year at 39.5%. He is long and athletic and dangerous from deep, in the midrange, and going to the rim. I would imagine that Mitchell gets the assignment on Franklin in this one. Aside from Franklin, it's mostly role players on the wings coming off the bench. Isaac McKneely (6'4", 180lb freshman) and Ryan Dunn (6'8", 205lb freshman) are the main contributors. McKneely is a top-60 recruit, and he is in there to shoot. He's a 43.7% 3pt shooter, and 3s account for about 75% of his shot attempts. Can't leave him open. Dunn is a rangy, athletic wing with great length and a better shooting stroke than his 30.8% 3pt percentage would suggest. He's a pest defensively with good versatility and shotblocking ability. Both McKneely and Dunn play regularly, but both are reserves.

    Guards: The Hoos play a pair of PGs the majority of the game, and they are both very good players. Reece Beekman (6'3", 175lb junior) is the NBA prospect of the two. He has EXCELLENT defensive skills, both in terms of tenacity, length, and athleticism. The guy will be 1st team All-ACC Defense and on the short list for ACC DPoY, and with good reason. He's a royal pain in the rear on that end. On offense, he has developed into a capable 3pt shooter albeit on a low volume. But his best attribute is his ability off the dribble, where he has a terrific first step. Beekman is very unselfish, and his 5 assists per game could be even higher if in a faster paced team or if not playing next to another good passing PG. Clark looks like he should be the team mascot rather than a player, but he's very good in his own right. He is a terrific 3pt shooter, and can be a pest to the ballhandler bringing it up. He also leads the ACC in assists. Clark drives to pass, so it will be important for our shotblockers to stay home as long as possible if and when he gets into the lane, because challenging his shot will absolutely result in a dumpoff pass for a layup or dunk by one of the bigs.

    I like this matchup a bit better than I do the Miami matchup in one aspect. UVa doesn't want to push the tempo at all, and Duke has struggled with teams who want to play frenetic defense on the perimeter and get uptempo. It's not that UVa won't run if handed the opportunity, but they are more than happy to play their boa constrictor style defense in the paint rather than extend pressure on the ball and force turnovers. That of course doesn't mean that Duke will be favored. UVa will be (and rightfully so) favored by about 5 in this one. It's just that I think UVa's style is a tad more conducive to what we want to do. Hopefully between that and having had a few days to recover and prepare for this one will lead to a better result, even if not a win. It will be a very difficult game as it always is against UVa, especially when they are the better team. But it will be an important test of our ability to bounce back.
    Just some additional thoughts on the very good preview/analysis provided here (as usual):

    Centers: Shedrick started the year off pretty hot (efficiency wise) but has continued to struggle (as he did last year) with fouling issues. He gets a little to handsy at times, and it affects his defense. Eventually, Bennett "pulled the plug", demoting him to the bench, and until yesterday, nearly out of the rotation completely. Like nearly EVERY player on Virginia's roster (maybe excepting the PGs), there's a "good Shedrick" and a "bad Shedrick". Good Shedrick is an excellent shot blocker and finisher at the rim of dishes and oops. He's also an underrated shooter (excellent from the FT line) though he takes VERY few shots outside the paint. Bad Shedrick picks up silly fouls, and really struggles with his hedge-and-recover responsibilities vs the pick-and-roll (often failing to turn the guard back toward the screen side, or bumping into/off his defensive teammate as he attempts to recover). His core strength is lower than expected from a player his size and his center of gravity is high - easy for opposing bigs to move him without much resistance. Tuesday, Bennett actually had him mix in some drop coverage with the pick and roll that seemed to help, and Shedrick exaggerated contact on backdowns picking up a couple charges. TBD if these changes can mitigate his major weaknesses moving forward. I would expect Caffaro to play 3 min or less - almost a total nonfactor barring something surprising.

    Forwards: Gardner and Vander Plas have been hot and cold for stretches during the season. Last few games, Gardner has been closer to his ceiling, and Vander Plas has been a non factor. It is believed Vander Plas has a nagging back issue. When it flares up, it affects his movement and shooting and he goes from A-tier role player to C-tier quickly. Has been the latter lately. If he hits a couple 3s early though - watch out.

    Wings: Franklin's productivity on offense comes down to one thing - is he hitting his 3s? When he is, he can go "John Starks" hot and it tends to expand to the rest of his game - midrange, drives to the rim, getting to the line, etc. It all starts with him hitting from deep. Unfortunately, he can also go "John Starks" cold. When that happens, nothing seems to go right for him with regards to scoring. He's still a capable and willing (if unspectacular) passer, and will work his butt off on D whether his O is working or not. Dunn is going to be a DeAndre Hunter/Mikal Bridges-type at some point. Not yet though, despite the fact that he does show more than the occasional flash of that talent. He's ideally suited to be a small-ball 4 right now. Still needs a little more seasoning with his ball handling and shooting to maximize his potential on the perimeter. PT could be anywhere from 3-20 min depending on how he's performing. Still a little thin/weak to really bang with bigger bodies. McKneeley is like a Joe Harris/Kyle Guy blend. Not quite the shooter that Guy was, and not quite the all-around player Harris was - though he compares decently with where both were as true frosh. He has been coming on lately, showing a little more confidence on both ends. Seems to be getting more comfortable in the systems here. If I had to pick a "surprise" player to have a big game, it'd be McKneeley. He's lately been supplanting Franklin's late game minutes when Franklin is missing shots and McKneeley is playing well.

    Guards: Beekman is key - he injured his hamstring pretty significantly in early Dec and was almost a total nonfactor (for a guy playing 30+ min) for most of the next month. In that stretch, Virginia lose extremely close games @ Miami and Pitt, and lost at home to Houston by 8. IMO Virginia goes a MINIMUM of 2-1 in those game with a healthy Beekman. Sources close to the program indicate Beekman is still not 100%, but his explosiveness/1st step are about 90% there. Most of the lingering issues are tied to RE-active movement (i.e. defense). He has excellent anticipation, but int he rare instance he is fooled by a change of direction, he still lacks the elite quickness needed to recover and keep his man in front consistently. When he is full 100%, anything short of prime Allen Iverson isn't beating Beekman off the bounce with speed. Clark is a warrior, and seems to deliver when it really counts, but is not above some head-scratching turnovers or blown defensive assignments. He's also at times exploitable if an opposing guards wants to get physical and back him down in the high/mid post for an easy turn around. Based on what I've witnessed, usually you want that guard to be at least 6'2ish, have excellent vision/court awareness in case of help coming, and to have a noticeable weight advantage on Clark (clark is shockingly strong for his size, and due to low center of gravity harder to move than you'd expect).

    My prediction- If Virginia plays with the focus and intensity they had in the 1st half vs NC State, Virginia will win (assuming no crazy outlier like Duke shooting 61% from 3 on solid volume). If Virginia is up-and-down with their effort and focus, especially with regards to their defensive assignments and rotations, the game will be there for the taking if Duke plays pretty well (not A+ game, a B/B+ will probably do it).

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Southgate0809 View Post
    Ah, a little faith everybody. We've actually shot the 3 pretty well lately, not counting the Miami game, but including the VT game where we shot almost 40%.
    UVa forces you to take threes under time pressure- not a Duke strength. We will see how it goes- but if UVa plays D like last night- Duke has a tough road ahead. Duke will need to play well out of the gate.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Southgate0809 View Post
    Anyone good with stats have any idea how we typically shoot from 3 against UVA (especially AT UVA) compared to our 3P% for the season? I have the feeling we usually shoot higher than average.
    I already posted in this thread (see below) how we've shot against Virginia over our past six games against them. If you'd like to go further back and all you're interested in is 3pt%, it doesn't take somebody "good with stats" to read a box score.

    It doesn't take a stats guru to look up Duke's three-point pct for the full seasons, either, but our three-point% for the past five seasons (including this one) have been:

    2023: 32.4%
    2022: 36.6%
    2021: 35.2%
    2020: 35.2%
    2019: 30.8%

    So in our three away games over the past four seasons, we've been much better than our average in two of the games and much worse than our average in the other. In our three home games in the past four seasons, we've been better once, about the same once, and much worse once.

    One thing I'd also note is that people seem to be worried that we'll take too many bad threes against UVa's defense, but in the past four seasons (6 games), we never in even one game took "too many" threes. The only games in which we took a large number of threes we also made a high percentage of them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Since Virginia is a system team, I've collated our advanced stats against them for the past four seasons (6 games). Here you go:

    OFFENSE

    Code:
    Year	Tempo	AdjRat	eFG	2pt%	3pt%	%threes	Reb%	TO%	FTR	Score	H/A
    2022 #1	63.9	1.11	48.1	45.7	35.3	32.7	38.2	23.4	42.3	68-69	H
    2022 #2	59.4	1.15	55.0	51.5	41.2	34.0	19.4	13.5	34.0	65-61	A
    2021	61.0	1.19	59.8	60.7	39.1	45.1	14.8	16.4	17.6	66-65	H
    2020	62.9	0.96	33.9	33.3	23.5	28.8	28.6	15.9	25.4	50-52	A
    2019 #1	62.9	1.32	52.9	64.9	14.3	27.5	30.3	12.7	60.9	72-70	H
    2019 #2	63.1	1.46	72.2	54.2	61.9	46.7	36.4	23.8	51.1	81-71	A
    DEFENSE

    Code:
    Year	Tempo	AdjRat	eFG	2pt%	3pt%	%threes	Reb%	TO%	FTR	Score	H/A
    2022 #1	63.9	1.02	49.2	54.7	16.7	18.5	70.3	7.8	13.8	68-69	H
    2022 #2	59.4	0.97	50.9	45.7	40.0	36.4	81.8	10.1	14.5	65-61	A
    2021	61.0	0.93	54.8	51.2	45.5	21.2	66.7	21.3	19.2	66-65	H
    2020	62.9	0.85	45.0	45.0	30.0	20.0	72.4	23.8	20.0	50-52	A
    2019 #1	62.9	0.94	55.7	69.4	17.6	32.1	75.9	12.7	32.1	72-70	H
    2019 #2	63.1	0.95	55.0	50.0	41.7	40.0	54.8	22.2	11.7	81-71	A
    Obviously slow tempo in all six games. Our offense solved the packline in five of the six games (though those were good offensive teams (#1, #1, #18, #7, #7; the team that didn't fare well on offense was #12)). None of the four factors show any consistency among the games. Our defense has been decent but not great against Virginia. They've consistently done well on two-point shooting in the six games, but no other pattern emerges that I can see.

  16. #36
    Don’t know which Duke team will show up, certainly hopeful not the Duke at Miami. We will have to play really well to beat them at JPJ. We have had some success there and we will have to take care of the ball to have a chance. With all the freshmen, you never know how they will perform, especially on the road. Roach and Proctor, please take better care of the ball! Actually, I am expecting a loss Sat. Just hope we play with poise and a fire in our game as far as shooting the ball. It would be a huge win if we can do it! Let’s go Duke!!
       

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Shallow analysis alert: this season's team (and, by extension, head coach Jon Scheyer) has never lost 2 consecutive games. That's not a hard and fast rule, but Duke finds a way to bounce back. Here's a list of their wins following a loss. Two of them were road games.

    L-Kansas (neutral), W-Delaware (home) 92-58
    L-Purdue (neutral), W-Ohio State (home) 81-72
    L-Wake Forest (away), W-Florida State (home) 86-67
    L-NC State (away), W-Boston College (away) 65-64
    L-Clemson (away), W-Miami (home) 68-66
    L-Virginia Tech (away), W-Georgia Tech (away) 86-43

    Winning at UVA is a taller order than winning in Boston or Atlanta, but this team has been pretty good at wiping the slate clean and looking ahead.

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Dallas, TX
    I'll be happy as long as we compete. Don't let their pressure rattle us into turnovers, and stay home on their shooters. If we do those things, we should keep the game within striking distance.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Shallow analysis alert: this season's team (and, by extension, head coach Jon Scheyer) has never lost 2 consecutive games. That's not a hard and fast rule, but Duke finds a way to bounce back. Here's a list of their wins following a loss. Two of them were road games.

    L-Kansas (neutral), W-Delaware (home) 92-58
    L-Purdue (neutral), W-Ohio State (home) 81-72
    L-Wake Forest (away), W-Florida State (home) 86-67
    L-NC State (away), W-Boston College (away) 65-64
    L-Clemson (away), W-Miami (home) 68-66
    L-Virginia Tech (away), W-Georgia Tech (away) 86-43

    Winning at UVA is a taller order than winning in Boston or Atlanta, but this team has been pretty good at wiping the slate clean and looking ahead.
    Of course, it may be somewhat significant that the two bolded teams are in 11th and 14th place respectively, in a 15-team conference. Virginia, obviously, is number one. I mean, I don't want to kill any optimism, but the task is just a might bit harder this time around.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    Of course, it may be somewhat significant that the two bolded teams are in 11th and 14th place respectively, in a 15-team conference. Virginia, obviously, is number one. I mean, I don't want to kill any optimism, but the task is just a might bit harder this time around.
    And our only two road wins. Most of our other road losses were by double digits with the exception being VA tech. Our offense was bad against UNC and really bad against Miami. Not trying to be pessimistic but I have a hard time finding a path to victory in this one. Offensive rebounds would be one but Virginia does a good job of limiting those. The only thing I can come up with is something unexpected happening like Whitehead coming back and scoring 20 pts.
       

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