Originally Posted by
CDu
So Monday night sucked. No way around it. Saturday doesn't get much, if any, easier. Hopefully the team is better prepared to play this weekend than they were on Monday. If they are, they can win. If not, they will lose again.
UVa has been a steady presence in the top 10-15 of the metrics rankings this year: #14 in KenPom, #15 in Torvik. It's not a vintage Tony Bennett team, but it's still a very good team. They still play the pack line defense, and although it isn't as good as it was in Bennett's 2010s heyday, it's still a top-25 level defense. They make hitting 2s difficult, they do well on the defensive glass, and they do a good job of using their lower bodies to create contact so as to avoid foul calls. It's a very well-coached team, even if it isn't quite the optimal lineup for Bennett's system. On offense, they control the tempo (6th slowest pace in the country), avoid turnovers (8th best in the country), and they hit their 3s.
Centers: Kadin Shedrick (6'11", 230lb redshirt junior) has logged the most starts, although his starting spot has been usurped of late. He's by far the most talented center on the team, with good length and athleticism. But for whatever reason, he just hasn't found a consistent spot in Bennett's circle of trust. The former top-70 recruit is likely to come off the bench against us. He's their best shot blocker and dunk threat, but he just has never put it all together. The other true center on the roster is Francisco Caffaro (7'0", 250lb redshirt senior from Argentina). Caffaro DEFINITELY fits the Bennett mold, a big, burly space eater who sets screens and loves contact. Unfortunately, his skill level has never arrived, and as such he's remained a backup over his 5 years. He only shoots near the rim, and is a good rebounder. That said, he's been dealing with a foot injury and has missed several games. But even if he plays, it will be a bit role.
Forwards: The Hoos start a pair of forwards instead. Jayden Gardner (6'7", 235lb fifth year senior transfer from ECU) is the better of the two frontcourt players. He's a well-built guy with a decent shooting touch and solid post moves. His lack of height hinders him from being truly great, but he's still a very good player whose stat line understates how good he is (somewhat deflated by pace of play, and playing fewer minutes this year). The other starter is Ben Vander Plas (6'8", 235lb grad transfer from Ohio). Vander Plas is a stretch big with decent 3pt touch and overall skill level including the ability to dribble and pass. He's not overly athletic, and not a big rebounder, but he's a good system guy who fills his role after being a star at a lower level for the previous 3 years.
Wings: Armaan Franklin (6'4", 195lb senior transfer from Indiana) is the team's leading scorer. Franklin struggled a bit with his shot last year, but has been a really good shooter and scorer this year at 39.5%. He is long and athletic and dangerous from deep, in the midrange, and going to the rim. I would imagine that Mitchell gets the assignment on Franklin in this one. Aside from Franklin, it's mostly role players on the wings coming off the bench. Isaac McKneely (6'4", 180lb freshman) and Ryan Dunn (6'8", 205lb freshman) are the main contributors. McKneely is a top-60 recruit, and he is in there to shoot. He's a 43.7% 3pt shooter, and 3s account for about 75% of his shot attempts. Can't leave him open. Dunn is a rangy, athletic wing with great length and a better shooting stroke than his 30.8% 3pt percentage would suggest. He's a pest defensively with good versatility and shotblocking ability. Both McKneely and Dunn play regularly, but both are reserves.
Guards: The Hoos play a pair of PGs the majority of the game, and they are both very good players. Reece Beekman (6'3", 175lb junior) is the NBA prospect of the two. He has EXCELLENT defensive skills, both in terms of tenacity, length, and athleticism. The guy will be 1st team All-ACC Defense and on the short list for ACC DPoY, and with good reason. He's a royal pain in the rear on that end. On offense, he has developed into a capable 3pt shooter albeit on a low volume. But his best attribute is his ability off the dribble, where he has a terrific first step. Beekman is very unselfish, and his 5 assists per game could be even higher if in a faster paced team or if not playing next to another good passing PG. Clark looks like he should be the team mascot rather than a player, but he's very good in his own right. He is a terrific 3pt shooter, and can be a pest to the ballhandler bringing it up. He also leads the ACC in assists. Clark drives to pass, so it will be important for our shotblockers to stay home as long as possible if and when he gets into the lane, because challenging his shot will absolutely result in a dumpoff pass for a layup or dunk by one of the bigs.
I like this matchup a bit better than I do the Miami matchup in one aspect. UVa doesn't want to push the tempo at all, and Duke has struggled with teams who want to play frenetic defense on the perimeter and get uptempo. It's not that UVa won't run if handed the opportunity, but they are more than happy to play their boa constrictor style defense in the paint rather than extend pressure on the ball and force turnovers. That of course doesn't mean that Duke will be favored. UVa will be (and rightfully so) favored by about 5 in this one. It's just that I think UVa's style is a tad more conducive to what we want to do. Hopefully between that and having had a few days to recover and prepare for this one will lead to a better result, even if not a win. It will be a very difficult game as it always is against UVa, especially when they are the better team. But it will be an important test of our ability to bounce back.