Originally Posted by
Wahoo2000
Just some additional thoughts on the very good preview/analysis provided here (as usual):
Centers: Shedrick started the year off pretty hot (efficiency wise) but has continued to struggle (as he did last year) with fouling issues. He gets a little to handsy at times, and it affects his defense. Eventually, Bennett "pulled the plug", demoting him to the bench, and until yesterday, nearly out of the rotation completely. Like nearly EVERY player on Virginia's roster (maybe excepting the PGs), there's a "good Shedrick" and a "bad Shedrick". Good Shedrick is an excellent shot blocker and finisher at the rim of dishes and oops. He's also an underrated shooter (excellent from the FT line) though he takes VERY few shots outside the paint. Bad Shedrick picks up silly fouls, and really struggles with his hedge-and-recover responsibilities vs the pick-and-roll (often failing to turn the guard back toward the screen side, or bumping into/off his defensive teammate as he attempts to recover). His core strength is lower than expected from a player his size and his center of gravity is high - easy for opposing bigs to move him without much resistance. Tuesday, Bennett actually had him mix in some drop coverage with the pick and roll that seemed to help, and Shedrick exaggerated contact on backdowns picking up a couple charges. TBD if these changes can mitigate his major weaknesses moving forward. I would expect Caffaro to play 3 min or less - almost a total nonfactor barring something surprising.
Forwards: Gardner and Vander Plas have been hot and cold for stretches during the season. Last few games, Gardner has been closer to his ceiling, and Vander Plas has been a non factor. It is believed Vander Plas has a nagging back issue. When it flares up, it affects his movement and shooting and he goes from A-tier role player to C-tier quickly. Has been the latter lately. If he hits a couple 3s early though - watch out.
Wings: Franklin's productivity on offense comes down to one thing - is he hitting his 3s? When he is, he can go "John Starks" hot and it tends to expand to the rest of his game - midrange, drives to the rim, getting to the line, etc. It all starts with him hitting from deep. Unfortunately, he can also go "John Starks" cold. When that happens, nothing seems to go right for him with regards to scoring. He's still a capable and willing (if unspectacular) passer, and will work his butt off on D whether his O is working or not. Dunn is going to be a DeAndre Hunter/Mikal Bridges-type at some point. Not yet though, despite the fact that he does show more than the occasional flash of that talent. He's ideally suited to be a small-ball 4 right now. Still needs a little more seasoning with his ball handling and shooting to maximize his potential on the perimeter. PT could be anywhere from 3-20 min depending on how he's performing. Still a little thin/weak to really bang with bigger bodies. McKneeley is like a Joe Harris/Kyle Guy blend. Not quite the shooter that Guy was, and not quite the all-around player Harris was - though he compares decently with where both were as true frosh. He has been coming on lately, showing a little more confidence on both ends. Seems to be getting more comfortable in the systems here. If I had to pick a "surprise" player to have a big game, it'd be McKneeley. He's lately been supplanting Franklin's late game minutes when Franklin is missing shots and McKneeley is playing well.
Guards: Beekman is key - he injured his hamstring pretty significantly in early Dec and was almost a total nonfactor (for a guy playing 30+ min) for most of the next month. In that stretch, Virginia lose extremely close games @ Miami and Pitt, and lost at home to Houston by 8. IMO Virginia goes a MINIMUM of 2-1 in those game with a healthy Beekman. Sources close to the program indicate Beekman is still not 100%, but his explosiveness/1st step are about 90% there. Most of the lingering issues are tied to RE-active movement (i.e. defense). He has excellent anticipation, but int he rare instance he is fooled by a change of direction, he still lacks the elite quickness needed to recover and keep his man in front consistently. When he is full 100%, anything short of prime Allen Iverson isn't beating Beekman off the bounce with speed. Clark is a warrior, and seems to deliver when it really counts, but is not above some head-scratching turnovers or blown defensive assignments. He's also at times exploitable if an opposing guards wants to get physical and back him down in the high/mid post for an easy turn around. Based on what I've witnessed, usually you want that guard to be at least 6'2ish, have excellent vision/court awareness in case of help coming, and to have a noticeable weight advantage on Clark (clark is shockingly strong for his size, and due to low center of gravity harder to move than you'd expect).
My prediction- If Virginia plays with the focus and intensity they had in the 1st half vs NC State, Virginia will win (assuming no crazy outlier like Duke shooting 61% from 3 on solid volume). If Virginia is up-and-down with their effort and focus, especially with regards to their defensive assignments and rotations, the game will be there for the taking if Duke plays pretty well (not A+ game, a B/B+ will probably do it).