2023-2024 Roster

[CDu]

I am somewhat confused by this logic. Yes, it is true that if you are unlikely to ever be drafted (e.g., Hurt and Steward), then sticking around for another year is unlikely to improve your draft position. But why does that mean you should just leave after your freshman year.

I doesn't inherently mean that, and Kesdy wasn't implying that. It just means that "returning to improve your pro bball future" isn't always a realistic option.

For some guys (like the ones you mentioned, or even guys like Jack White, Delaurier, etc), the choice is to stick around. For others, it isn't.

Matthew Hurt is a prime example of this. He didn't see himself as a 4-year player coming out of high school (most 5-star recruits don't). His goal was to be a pro bball player, not a Duke graduate. He had an up-and-down freshman year, and he came back just like folks here wanted him to do. And he had a MONSTER second season. Could not have been realistically any better. And what did that get him? Nothing. Wasn't even draft anyway. There was no way he was going to get drafted due to his lack of length and athleticism, despite being an elite shooter and scorer. So he decided to go pro, realizing that his draft stock wasn't going to get any better than it was at that time (coming off an amazing individual season, with a very crowded frontcourt picture looming if he stayed).

So Kedsy's point was that it isn't as simple as "come back, play better, and improve your draft stock." For some guys, playing amazingly isn't enough. For others, it's not realistic to improve in the ways that would improve their draft stock. And for others, it's simply a lack of interest in being in a difficult school when they could be focusing full time on bball.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I doesn't inherently mean that, and Kesdy wasn't implying that. It just means that "returning to improve your pro bball future" isn't always a realistic option.

For some guys (like the ones you mentioned, or even guys like Jack White, Delaurier, etc), the choice is to stick around. For others, it isn't.

Matthew Hurt is a prime example of this. He didn't see himself as a 4-year player coming out of high school (most 5-star recruits don't). His goal was to be a pro bball player, not a Duke graduate. He had an up-and-down freshman year, and he came back just like folks here wanted him to do. And he had a MONSTER second season. Could not have been realistically any better. And what did that get him? Nothing. Wasn't even draft anyway. There was no way he was going to get drafted due to his lack of length and athleticism, despite being an elite shooter and scorer. So he decided to go pro, realizing that his draft stock wasn't going to get any better than it was at that time (coming off an amazing individual season, with a very crowded frontcourt picture looming if he stayed).

So Kedsy's point was that it isn't as simple as "come back, play better, and improve your draft stock." For some guys, playing amazingly isn't enough. For others, it's not realistic to improve in the ways that would improve their draft stock. And for others, it's simply a lack of interest in being in a difficult school when they could be focusing full time on bball.

Matthew Hurt is an example of a player who should have left Duke early despite no NBA future.

If Hurt stuck around, we wasn't going to play as much during his junior year. With Mark Williams back and Paolo signing on, Hurt hasn't going to start. Sure, Hurt's shooting is 10x Paolo's, but Paolo does everything else better, including defense (on D, a mediocre Paolo is still infinitely better than a horrific Hurt).

Now, could Hurt have transferred? Probably. But he said, "eff it. I've proven what I need to in college. My stock is at an all time high. I'm out" and left. Can't blame him.

[DCDevil9194]

Matthew Hurt is an example of a player who should have left Duke early despite no NBA future.

If Hurt stuck around, we wasn't going to play as much during his junior year. With Mark Williams back and Paolo signing on, Hurt hasn't going to start. Sure, Hurt's shooting is 10x Paolo's, but Paolo does everything else better, including defense (on D, a mediocre Paolo is still infinitely better than a horrific Hurt).

Now, could Hurt have transferred? Probably. But he said, "eff it. I've proven what I need to in college. My stock is at an all time high. I'm out" and left. Can't blame him.

I get it. But it is unfortunate. In theory, Matthew Hurt is the type of college player you want Duke to get; someone who can be a great college player, but is not a strong NBA prospect (see Timme, Garza, Bacot).

[kshepinthehouse]

I am somewhat confused by this logic. Yes, it is true that if you are unlikely to ever be drafted (e.g., Hurt and Steward), then sticking around for another year is unlikely to improve your draft position. But why does that mean you should just leave after your freshman year. In fact, most college players stick around precisely because the NBA is not in their future. And that is true of even strong college players who are likely to make some money playing professional basketball, including Bacot, Timme, Edey, and others. One might think that if you are unlikely to ever be drafted by the NBA, then maybe you should enjoy the time you have playing for one of the best college basketball programs.

Three things. One there are other professional leagues besides the NBA. Two coming back could mean that you expose your flaws even more and now you’re further away from the NBA. Third if you want to learn to be an NBA player then NBA is the best place to learn. Some guys have the newfound strategy to work their way through the g league.

[UrinalCake]

One might think that if you are unlikely to ever be drafted by the NBA, then maybe you should enjoy the time you have playing for one of the best college basketball programs.

But Duke's success at getting so many guys to the league quickly has created a natural filter where now the ones who choose to come here are not the guys who want to enjoy four years of playing in college. When you have a kid who has dreamed about playing the the NBA his whole life, and chooses to go to the program that has sold him on making that happen, then you can't realistically expect him to just give up on that dream after struggling for one season, to decide that the NBA is not in his future at 19 years old and he should instead enjoy playing in college for three more years while all of his peers who he grew up playing against are off making millions. Kids want to take their shot at realizing their dream. They may know that the odds are against them, but there are also plenty of examples of guys who beat the odds and found success and every kid thinks they can be the one to beat the odds.

[kshepinthehouse]

I disagree with your 2nd year predictions of Steward and Keels, but there isn't anyway to prove that. I think Steward easily could have been a 2nd round pick and Keels a guaranteed 1st round pick. But, we'll never know.

And I agree there is risk with staying and improving your stock isn't a guarantee. See McRoberts or a half-dozen UNC players.

I guess we'll have to disagree about players leaving early. I think some make bad decisions, and that's not "hindsight is 20/20". It looked bad then and it looks bad now.

But we are past that now. This isn’t 20 years ago. These kids are coming in planning to leave. So while it looks like some of them may should stay they just don’t have that mentality.

Keels isn’t a good NBA prospect. The only NBA attribute he has is strength. He’s a below the rim, below average athlete, shot poorly, poor finisher at the rim, undersized to play the 2 and not good enough to play point. There’s really not a lot for an NBA team to like about him.

As far as Steward is concerned, his physical limitations really hurt him as well. He’s way too slight to play the 2 and hasn’t shown NBA point guard skills. To overcome those he needed to be an elite scorer or shooter and he isn’t that either. There’s not a lot about him that an NBA team would like either.

[KKDL19]

Hey, I get all of the debates and discussions about players who leave early or opt to play pro, BUT they are living their dreams to some extent and making money doing what they love to do. No all athletes are motivated to be students.

[dukelilsis]

I do expect we will see transfers from this team. Could be Schutt, Reeves, Blakes or all of them. Reeves may stay, Duke doesn't have a 7-footer signed.

9F

As a friend of the family, I will say that I would be very surprised if Reeves left. They are very excited about a Duke education in addition to the basketball experience. That said, I realize anything can happen.

[KKDL19]

And Reeves should have an opportunity to contribute next year too

[kAzE]

5 games is a small sample size.

Yes, Proctor is a great FT shooter. But that hasn't translated to good 3pt shooting.

His game against UNC is what I want to see: only 2 threes but 11 2pt FGs.

If Proctor decides to leave this year, the NBA is not going to label him a good 3pt shooter. They just aren't. Now, could he come back and shoot 35%+, or better yet, 40%+ from 3 and be labeled a good shooter? Absolutely. But that ain't happening this year.

I think he's shown enough potential on his shooting stroke (particularly from the foul line), that teams are going to view him as a guy will develop into a plus shooter with time. And that's all it takes for a team to invest these days (especially a 2nd round pick). For better or for worse, past performance isn't nearly as important as future potential these days.

All you need to do is look at Luke Kennard's freshman year. Now he's a top 5 shooter in the NBA.

I'm not saying Proctor will be the same, but the potential is what NBA teams care about, and he's shown some good stuff in other areas already that make him just as intriguing, if not more so, than a guy like Kennard.

All that said, I really really really hope he chooses to return to Duke. But I'm on the pessimistic side for that.

[CDu]

I think he's shown enough potential on his shooting stroke (particularly from the foul line), that teams are going to view him as a guy will develop into a plus shooter with time. And that's all it takes for a team to invest these days. For better or for worse, past performance isn't nearly as important as future potential these days.

All you need to do is look at Luke Kennard's freshman year. Now he's a top 5 shooter in the NBA.

Yeah, worth also adding that it isn't just a 5 game sample. He's shot 34.3% from 3 over the past 16 games. The only reason his stat line is bad from three is because he was abysmal (15.6%) over his first 8 games. But he's been a decent 3pt shooter for over 2 months of the season now.

[DukieInBrasil]

I doesn't inherently mean that, and Kesdy wasn't implying that. It just means that "returning to improve your pro bball future" isn't always a realistic option.

For some guys (like the ones you mentioned, or even guys like Jack White, Delaurier, etc), the choice is to stick around. For others, it isn't.

Matthew Hurt is a prime example of this. He didn't see himself as a 4-year player coming out of high school (most 5-star recruits don't). His goal was to be a pro bball player, not a Duke graduate. He had an up-and-down freshman year, and he came back just like folks here wanted him to do. And he had a MONSTER second season. Could not have been realistically any better. And what did that get him? Nothing. Wasn't even draft anyway. There was no way he was going to get drafted due to his lack of length and athleticism, despite being an elite shooter and scorer. So he decided to go pro, realizing that his draft stock wasn't going to get any better than it was at that time (coming off an amazing individual season, with a very crowded frontcourt picture looming if he stayed).

So Kedsy's point was that it isn't as simple as "come back, play better, and improve your draft stock." For some guys, playing amazingly isn't enough. For others, it's not realistic to improve in the ways that would improve their draft stock. And for others, it's simply a lack of interest in being in a difficult school when they could be focusing full time on bball.

interesting you bring those 2 guys up. Neither put up even remotely stellar stats at Duke, stayed all 4 years, with no legit NBA prospects, and yet both have played in the NBA. Granted Javin has played 1 game and Jack a handful. Apparently both valued their Duke experience enough to play all 4 years rather than pursue other options. However, both have unique attributes that an NBA team might be able to use: Jack is tough as nails, a good defender on the wing and can shoot 3s (except for that time...). Javin is tall and long and quite springy, and could be a defensive specialist in an extremely limited role, someday, maybe.
Others bring up Keels and Steward, as well as Hurt, all of whom could be reasonably expected to put up more NBA stats than either White or Delaurier have. So why aren't they getting a shot at the NBA? Well, Keels has played as much as Javin has, but still... I don't have the answer, it just one of the quirks of pro sports.

[CrazieDUMB]

I really meant guys that were questionable as to whether they should go. A lot of our guys have been no brainers. I was legitimately trying to think if we've had any guys that left when it seemed really "iffy" and it panned out well for them? I considered the guys I mentioned as "iffy" though Hurt played 2 years so he is a bad example. It is tough to make generalizations on players who would be in that "iffy" category. I agree. My "iffy" list is probably different than everyone else's.

Maybe Gerald Henderson? He could have stayed for his senior season, still had a pretty solid NBA career

[DCDevil9194]

Maybe Gerald Henderson? He could have stayed for his senior season, still had a pretty solid NBA career

Gary Trent is good recent example.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Gary Trent is good recent example.

Trent is a great example. Did so much better than expected, especially as the 37th overall pick (2nd round).

Many questioned his decision to go pro at the time.

[Alan_Wilson]

Mitchell leaving after this year would be a terrible mistake for him. As for Lively, I hope he comes back selfishly but I think he is good to go, despite his inconsistencies this year. He's already improved a bunch in recent games. I see the foundation there for a great player. Re: Proctor, he needs another year of seasoning in the ACC.

[Bluedog]

Matthew Hurt is an example of a player who should have left Duke early despite no NBA future.

If Hurt stuck around, we wasn't going to play as much during his junior year. With Mark Williams back and Paolo signing on, Hurt hasn't going to start. Sure, Hurt's shooting is 10x Paolo's, but Paolo does everything else better, including defense (on D, a mediocre Paolo is still infinitely better than a horrific Hurt).

Now, could Hurt have transferred? Probably. But he said, "eff it. I've proven what I need to in college. My stock is at an all time high. I'm out" and left. Can't blame him.

NIL also didn't exist for Hurt. And the transfer portal was a different beast. if those two things had been in play, it's possible Hurt would have stuck around college ball longer...or not. Impossible to say. But certainly, those two factors are HUGE now and must be impactful for certain players.

[CDu]

NIL also didn't exist for Hurt. And the transfer portal was a different beast. if those two things had been in play, it's possible Hurt would have stuck around college ball longer...or not. Impossible to say. But certainly, those two factors are HUGE now and must be impactful for certain players.

While it was not officially allowed until June 30, 2021, it was pretty clear that NIL was going to be available when Hurt made his decision official. The Supreme Court had already ruled, and several states had adopted laws.

And the one-time free transfer rule was adopted in April 2021, so that was also in play when Hurt made his decision.

So I don't think that those rules would change his decision.

[kshepinthehouse]

Maybe Gerald Henderson? He could have stayed for his senior season, still had a pretty solid NBA career

Different era

[kshepinthehouse]

Mitchell leaving after this year would be a terrible mistake for him. As for Lively, I hope he comes back selfishly but I think he is good to go, despite his inconsistencies this year. He's already improved a bunch in recent games. I see the foundation there for a great player. Re: Proctor, he needs another year of seasoning in the ACC.

Mitchell also may not play as much if he comes back.
He’s also not a good run and jump athlete and he’s a poor shooter. He will most likely not be able to improve those things substantially. Furthermore, he’d have to post the 3 in the NBA. He can’t.