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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    There are likely at least a few who made their decision before they set foot on campus. Right?

    Hasty work and premature decisions may lead to penalties out of all proportion to the issues immediately involved. Winston Churchill

    The temptation to form premature theories upon insufficient data is the bane of our profession. Sherlock Holmes

    Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Mike Tyson

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    Hasty work and premature decisions may lead to penalties out of all proportion to the issues immediately involved. Winston Churchill

    The temptation to form premature theories upon insufficient data is the bane of our profession. Sherlock Holmes

    Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Mike Tyson
    Solid words of wisdom. Guarantee these players have their sights set on the NBA. Question is, "how quick"?
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by dukebluesincebirth View Post
    When Love drilled an early 3 against us Saturday night, I smiled on the inside and said nothing out loud- but I had a good feeling that would be his false confidence shot of the night. Since it came so early, there was a chance it would entice him to fire up more and more bad shots throughout the game, eventually becoming a huge negative for carolina's offense. And he did not disappoint. He's so predictable at this point.
    I posted that in the in game thread at the time! I was glad he had hit his first heat check 3, because he would fall in love with that shot. Which I thought would be good for us.

    Great minds and all that….

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    Hasty work and premature decisions may lead to penalties out of all proportion to the issues immediately involved. Winston Churchill

    The temptation to form premature theories upon insufficient data is the bane of our profession. Sherlock Holmes

    Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Mike Tyson
    We've had several players recently who didn't seem too concerned about how ready they were or how the season went. They were going pro no matter what.

  5. #45
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    Feb 2007
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    Los Angeles
    If there is any question about why Flip will be heading to the NBA after this year, you might want to read Jon Givony's evaluation of him which was posted on ESPN last week. Not sure if it's a paywall thing, but if not, here it is:

    https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/ins...g-expectations

    You have to scroll down a bit to get to the evals of the individual Duke players, but Kyle's is first. Short summary: his game, at his height, and with his athleticism, shot, and versatility, is absolutely tailor made for the modern NBA, and he has a good chance to be the second big guy off the board after Wembayama.

    I'll be very happy if we can get Tyrese and Mark (and Ryan) back. We'd have a heck of a roster with those guys plus the incomings. Any others are pure gravy at this point.

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    If there is any question about why Flip will be heading to the NBA after this year, you might want to read Jon Givony's evaluation of him which was posted on ESPN last week. Not sure if it's a paywall thing, but if not, here it is:

    https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/ins...g-expectations

    You have to scroll down a bit to get to the evals of the individual Duke players, but Kyle's is first. Short summary: his game, at his height, and with his athleticism, shot, and versatility, is absolutely tailor made for the modern NBA, and he has a good chance to be the second big guy off the board after Wembayama.

    I'll be very happy if we can get Tyrese and Mark (and Ryan) back. We'd have a heck of a roster with those guys plus the incomings. Any others are pure gravy at this point.
    The one thing I've seen questioned is his length. Meaning arm length. I thought he defended pretty well the other night even when switched on guards. He held his own. And he has a level of toughness that will translate in the NBA too. He doesn't seem to be afraid of anything. One of the tougher players we've had recently.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    If there is any question about why Flip will be heading to the NBA after this year, you might want to read Jon Givony's evaluation of him which was posted on ESPN last week. Not sure if it's a paywall thing, but if not, here it is:

    https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/ins...g-expectations

    You have to scroll down a bit to get to the evals of the individual Duke players, but Kyle's is first. Short summary: his game, at his height, and with his athleticism, shot, and versatility, is absolutely tailor made for the modern NBA, and he has a good chance to be the second big guy off the board after Wembayama.

    I'll be very happy if we can get Tyrese and Mark (and Ryan) back. We'd have a heck of a roster with those guys plus the incomings. Any others are pure gravy at this point.
    Paywall. ESPN+.

    But I have to share this cus it's amazing: at 22.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.3 blocks per 40 mins, Flip stuffs the stat sheet like no freshman we've seen in college basketball history.

    Yeah...he's gone.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  8. #48
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    Dukes in the G-League

    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Right. I suspect most lean one way or the other, and, depending how hard that lean is, the outcome of their season may have some barring on what they end up doing. But, sometimes it doesn't. See Steward, DJ.
    Seeing this made me look up how DJ has been doing lately. He's battling Alex O'Connell for minutes on the Stockton Kings (not exactly true, as AOC is more of SF and DJ is more of a SG, but still fun to think about).

    DJ's stats are largely down from a year ago. He's scoring less (11.3ppg vs 14.6), rebounding less (2.1rpg vs 4.0), and getting fewer assists (3.5apg vs 4.0). Some of that is certainly that he is playing less (21.7mpg vs 29.1) and that is perhaps the more significant stat as it indicates the team seems less "potential" in him and is not as eager to draw out his skills by playing him more. On the good side, he's shooting really well from 3 (46.2% vs 33.3% a year ago) and that is a super important stat for his pro future. It would really help if he could maintain something close to that percentage while shooting more as he is currently only attempting 3.5 3s per game. The NBA would probably like to see him up above 5 3FGA per game to prove his shooting skill translates to the next level.

    DJ is not on a 2-way deal, so he is almost certainly making a standard G-League salary, which comes to $40k per season (the season lasts about half the year and many players get side gigs overseas in the off-season). He likely got some kind of Exhibit 10 contract bonus from the Sacto Kings for playing with them in training camp and then reporting to the G-League team (probably around $15-20k).

    Jeremy Roach is most assuredly making considerably more from playing basketball this year than DJ Steward is.


    Meanwhile, I checked on Matt Hurt too. He's the backup to big man Kenny Lofton Jr. on the Memphis Hustle. Lofton, who is on a 2-way deal from the Griz, sat out a recent game and Hurt went off for 28 point including 4-7 on 3s. He's certainly got stretch big shooting ability (he's hitting better than 39% of his 3s) but he is not much of a rebounder (just 3.3rpg) and I suspect he struggles on D too. Much like DJ, I doubt Matt is really on the radar for NBA teams at this point.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Seeing this made me look up how DJ has been doing lately. He's battling Alex O'Connell for minutes on the Stockton Kings (not exactly true, as AOC is more of SF and DJ is more of a SG, but still fun to think about).

    DJ's stats are largely down from a year ago. He's scoring less (11.3ppg vs 14.6), rebounding less (2.1rpg vs 4.0), and getting fewer assists (3.5apg vs 4.0). Some of that is certainly that he is playing less (21.7mpg vs 29.1) and that is perhaps the more significant stat as it indicates the team seems less "potential" in him and is not as eager to draw out his skills by playing him more. On the good side, he's shooting really well from 3 (46.2% vs 33.3% a year ago) and that is a super important stat for his pro future. It would really help if he could maintain something close to that percentage while shooting more as he is currently only attempting 3.5 3s per game. The NBA would probably like to see him up above 5 3FGA per game to prove his shooting skill translates to the next level.

    DJ is not on a 2-way deal, so he is almost certainly making a standard G-League salary, which comes to $40k per season (the season lasts about half the year and many players get side gigs overseas in the off-season). He likely got some kind of Exhibit 10 contract bonus from the Sacto Kings for playing with them in training camp and then reporting to the G-League team (probably around $15-20k).

    Jeremy Roach is most assuredly making considerably more from playing basketball this year than DJ Steward is.


    Meanwhile, I checked on Matt Hurt too. He's the backup to big man Kenny Lofton Jr. on the Memphis Hustle. Lofton, who is on a 2-way deal from the Griz, sat out a recent game and Hurt went off for 28 point including 4-7 on 3s. He's certainly got stretch big shooting ability (he's hitting better than 39% of his 3s) but he is not much of a rebounder (just 3.3rpg) and I suspect he struggles on D too. Much like DJ, I doubt Matt is really on the radar for NBA teams at this point.
    how about Keels?

  10. #50
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    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Seeing this made me look up how DJ has been doing lately. He's battling Alex O'Connell for minutes on the Stockton Kings (not exactly true, as AOC is more of SF and DJ is more of a SG, but still fun to think about).

    DJ's stats are largely down from a year ago. He's scoring less (11.3ppg vs 14.6), rebounding less (2.1rpg vs 4.0), and getting fewer assists (3.5apg vs 4.0). Some of that is certainly that he is playing less (21.7mpg vs 29.1) and that is perhaps the more significant stat as it indicates the team seems less "potential" in him and is not as eager to draw out his skills by playing him more. On the good side, he's shooting really well from 3 (46.2% vs 33.3% a year ago) and that is a super important stat for his pro future. It would really help if he could maintain something close to that percentage while shooting more as he is currently only attempting 3.5 3s per game. The NBA would probably like to see him up above 5 3FGA per game to prove his shooting skill translates to the next level.

    DJ is not on a 2-way deal, so he is almost certainly making a standard G-League salary, which comes to $40k per season (the season lasts about half the year and many players get side gigs overseas in the off-season). He likely got some kind of Exhibit 10 contract bonus from the Sacto Kings for playing with them in training camp and then reporting to the G-League team (probably around $15-20k).

    Jeremy Roach is most assuredly making considerably more from playing basketball this year than DJ Steward is.


    Meanwhile, I checked on Matt Hurt too. He's the backup to big man Kenny Lofton Jr. on the Memphis Hustle. Lofton, who is on a 2-way deal from the Griz, sat out a recent game and Hurt went off for 28 point including 4-7 on 3s. He's certainly got stretch big shooting ability (he's hitting better than 39% of his 3s) but he is not much of a rebounder (just 3.3rpg) and I suspect he struggles on D too. Much like DJ, I doubt Matt is really on the radar for NBA teams at this point.
    I wish DJ could have found that 3-point shooting stroke while he was at Duke. By most recruiting sites, he was supposed to be a really good shooter. DJ was one of my favorite players on that team. That smile seemed to never leave his face and he looked to be a good teammate.

    GoDukw!

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    But I have to share this cus it's amazing: at 22.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.3 blocks per 40 mins, Flip stuffs the stat sheet like no freshman we've seen in college basketball history.
    Not to knock Flip's remarkable production but...

    Flip/40 -- 22.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.3 blocks
    Zion/40 -- 30.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.8 steals, and 2.4 blocks
    Marvin/40 -- 24.8 points, 13.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks
    Wendell/40 -- 20.1 points, 13.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.2 steals, and 3.0 blocks
    Vernon/40 -- 28.6 points, 14.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.1 steals, and 2.5 blocks

    Care to rethink that "stuffs the stat sheet like no freshman we've seen..." comment?

    -Jason "that Vernon Carey's freshman year has been so forgotten by the masses due to Tre's clutch play and the unfortunate Covid end to the season is a real crime" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  12. #52
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    Jan 2009
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    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Not to knock Flip's remarkable production but...

    Flip/40 -- 22.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.3 blocks
    Zion/40 -- 30.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.8 steals, and 2.4 blocks
    Marvin/40 -- 24.8 points, 13.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks
    Wendell/40 -- 20.1 points, 13.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.2 steals, and 3.0 blocks
    Vernon/40 -- 28.6 points, 14.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.1 steals, and 2.5 blocks

    Care to rethink that "stuffs the stat sheet like no freshman we've seen..." comment?

    -Jason "that Vernon Carey's freshman year has been so forgotten by the masses due to Tre's clutch play and the unfortunate Covid end to the season is a real crime" Evans
    Ask Jonathan Givony. Not my statement.

    But Givony is correct. No one has ever topped 22.5/13.5/2.0/1.6/1.3.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  13. #53
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    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Ask Jonathan Givony. Not my statement.

    But Givony is correct. No one has ever topped 22.5/13.5/2.0/1.6/1.3.
    Couldn't you or Givony say on one has topped Zions stats? Looks pretty impressive.

    GoDuke!

  14. #54
    This thread had me thinking about players (where you would consider it a tough decision) that left vs those that came back. I recall Tre Jones being a potential one and done, but really struggled shooting as a freshman. Worked on his shot, came back and had a nice sophomore campaign. It was a bit of a struggle getting established in the NBA, but he got there. Grayson Allen is another guy that has carved out a better career than I expected and was obviously at Duke for 4. Mark Williams sophomore year seemed to be a good thing. Then I think about Keels, Steward, Hurt, Carey, Duval that left and just not sure it panned out great. This is obviously a hugely subjective topic of what is considered success, but I feel like in sample sizes that I recall, there have been better success stories with guys that have returned. Obviously NIL is a difference now too that some I mentioned didn't have the luxury of. I was also reflecting on a world where I saw Laettner, Hurley, and Hill stay 4 years. Seems so wild to think about now. Different day and age.

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    how about Keels?
    The numbers ain't encouraging.

    14.3ppg and he's hitting just 43.2% of his FGs. He's shooting ok from outside, 38%, and attempts almost 6 3FGA per game, so he's taking the shots the NBA wants him to take. He's posting a decent 3.7 apg, so he's not a black hole with the ball. Trevor is playing 30+ minutes per game in G-league games, which is what one would expect from a 2-way player in whom the NBA team has made an investment.

    The bad news for Keels is that the Knicks just have not used him much at all with the big club. He's played in 1 NBA game, getting 1 minute in a blowout win over the Wiz back in October. He grabbed a rebound, so he avoided putting up a trillion. Most 2-way players are getting NBA time every now and then, so this is a sign of how far he has to go to get a permanent roster spot. He's still very young, but I expect the Knicks will want to see some signs of progress from him over the summer before committing to another 2-way deal.

    Trevor will earn over $500k on his 2-way contract this season, darn good money and likely comparable to what he might have made at Duke via NIL opportunities had he returned.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by 6th Man View Post
    This thread had me thinking about players (where you would consider it a tough decision) that left vs those that came back. I recall Tre Jones being a potential one and done, but really struggled shooting as a freshman. Worked on his shot, came back and had a nice sophomore campaign. It was a bit of a struggle getting established in the NBA, but he got there. Grayson Allen is another guy that has carved out a better career than I expected and was obviously at Duke for 4. Mark Williams sophomore year seemed to be a good thing. Then I think about Keels, Steward, Hurt, Carey, Duval that left and just not sure it panned out great. This is obviously a hugely subjective topic of what is considered success, but I feel like in sample sizes that I recall, there have been better success stories with guys that have returned. Obviously NIL is a difference now too that some I mentioned didn't have the luxury of. I was also reflecting on a world where I saw Laettner, Hurley, and Hill stay 4 years. Seems so wild to think about now. Different day and age.
    You're comparing the OAD failures with the returnee successes.

    How about the Zions/Tatums/Kyries of the world (OAD successes) or the Boldens/Derryck Thorntons/Chase Jeters of the world (top 25 players who returned to college basketball and didn't get drafted)?

    Tough to make any generalizations, given it's impossible to predict how players who didn't return would fare if they did.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Ask Jonathan Givony. Not my statement.

    But Givony is correct. No one has ever topped 22.5/13.5/2.0/1.6/1.3.
    I mean, that is just silly. So, I have to find someone who tops him in every stat? Zion tops him (significantly) in every stat except rebounds but Givony asserts that Flip is having more of a "stat stuffer" season than Zion did? That's just stupid on his part.

    Chet Holmgren comes really close -- 21.0/14.7/2.8/1.2/5.4. I checked De'Andre Ayton, Anthony Davis, Jared Sullinger, and a few other bigs (gotta be a big to get to 13+ rebounds/40) but cannot find anyone who beats Flip in all 5 major statistical categories. I found plenty who top him in 3 or 4, but not all 5. I stopped looking when I got back to 2010. Not gonna bother to go back more than that. Woo hoo... nice job finding something useless, Givony.

    -Jason "also checked Elton, Carlos, Shelden, and a few more... no dice" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I mean, that is just silly. So, I have to find someone who tops him in every stat? Zion tops him (significantly) in every stat except rebounds but Givony asserts that Flip is having more of a "stat stuffer" season than Zion did? That's just stupid on his part.

    Chet Holmgren comes really close -- 21.0/14.7/2.8/1.2/5.4. I checked De'Andre Ayton, Anthony Davis, Jared Sullinger, and a few other bigs (gotta be a big to get to 13+ rebounds/40) but cannot find anyone who beats Flip in all 5 major statistical categories. I found plenty who top him in 3 or 4, but not all 5. I stopped looking when I got back to 2010. Not gonna bother to go back more than that. Woo hoo... nice job finding something useless, Givony.

    -Jason "also checked Elton, Carlos, Shelden, and a few more... no dice" Evans
    I don't think it's useless at all. It shows how Flip is in such rare territory. It's not just scoring and rebounding, but he can do a few other things well too. I mean, look at the names you researched to find someone who tops Flip. That's an insane list!!!!!

    While we don't have a Zion or a Paolo or a Jabari or a Marvin, we do have a very unique player who is arguably a top 2 freshman in the country and who is going very high in the draft.

    I think that's Givony's point. But I may be reading into it.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    I don't think it's useless at all. It shows how Flip is in such rare territory. It's not just scoring and rebounding, but he can do a few other things well too. I mean, look at the names you researched to find someone who tops Flip. That's an insane list!!!!!

    While we don't have a Zion or a Paolo or a Jabari or a Marvin, we do have a very unique player who is arguably a top 2 freshman in the country and who is going very high in the draft.

    I think that's Givony's point. But I may be reading into it.
    Yup, I agree about all that and he is having an incredible season. He doesn't feel quite as dominant as a scorer as some of the other names on the list and he does not have the eye-popping explosion or athleticism that some of them did, but he's a special talent. Unless he and Duke really struggle down the stretch, he's gonna be OAD and a potential lottery pick.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Yup, I agree about all that and he is having an incredible season. He doesn't feel quite as dominant as a scorer as some of the other names on the list and he does not have the eye-popping explosion or athleticism that some of them did, but he's a special talent. Unless he and Duke really struggle down the stretch, he's gonna be OAD and a potential lottery pick.
    And he isn't. But this is a kid who, 24 months ago, wasn't a 5 star HS recruit. This is a kid who, 3 months ago, got publicly berated by scouts and journalists for a lack of effort and talent in the pre-season. This is a kid who got punched in the throat, vomited, and somehow still played the next possession of an ACC game.

    As a Duke fan for 20 years, I can't think of another player who completely and utterly destroyed pre-season expectations of him. I get the RSCI top 5 ranking, but everyone - myself included - crapped on Flip's ability to produce this pre-season. And now? He's got a mixture of 5 statistical categories that no freshman has ever accomplished. I think that's incredible.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

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