MBB: Duke at UVa (Saturday, Feb 11 4pm ET ESPN) Pre- and In-Game Thread

[CDu]

So Monday night sucked. No way around it. Saturday doesn't get much, if any, easier. Hopefully the team is better prepared to play this weekend than they were on Monday. If they are, they can win. If not, they will lose again.

UVa has been a steady presence in the top 10-15 of the metrics rankings this year: #14 in KenPom, #15 in Torvik. It's not a vintage Tony Bennett team, but it's still a very good team. They still play the pack line defense, and although it isn't as good as it was in Bennett's 2010s heyday, it's still a top-25 level defense. They make hitting 2s difficult, they do well on the defensive glass, and they do a good job of using their lower bodies to create contact so as to avoid foul calls. It's a very well-coached team, even if it isn't quite the optimal lineup for Bennett's system. On offense, they control the tempo (6th slowest pace in the country), avoid turnovers (8th best in the country), and they hit their 3s.

Centers: Kadin Shedrick (6'11", 230lb redshirt junior) has logged the most starts, although his starting spot has been usurped of late. He's by far the most talented center on the team, with good length and athleticism. But for whatever reason, he just hasn't found a consistent spot in Bennett's circle of trust. The former top-70 recruit is likely to come off the bench against us. He's their best shot blocker and dunk threat, but he just has never put it all together. The other true center on the roster is Francisco Caffaro (7'0", 250lb redshirt senior from Argentina). Caffaro DEFINITELY fits the Bennett mold, a big, burly space eater who sets screens and loves contact. Unfortunately, his skill level has never arrived, and as such he's remained a backup over his 5 years. He only shoots near the rim, and is a good rebounder. That said, he's been dealing with a foot injury and has missed several games. But even if he plays, it will be a bit role.

Forwards: The Hoos start a pair of forwards instead. Jayden Gardner (6'7", 235lb fifth year senior transfer from ECU) is the better of the two frontcourt players. He's a well-built guy with a decent shooting touch and solid post moves. His lack of height hinders him from being truly great, but he's still a very good player whose stat line understates how good he is (somewhat deflated by pace of play, and playing fewer minutes this year). The other starter is Ben Vander Plas (6'8", 235lb grad transfer from Ohio). Vander Plas is a stretch big with decent 3pt touch and overall skill level including the ability to dribble and pass. He's not overly athletic, and not a big rebounder, but he's a good system guy who fills his role after being a star at a lower level for the previous 3 years.

Wings: Armaan Franklin (6'4", 195lb senior transfer from Indiana) is the team's leading scorer. Franklin struggled a bit with his shot last year, but has been a really good shooter and scorer this year at 39.5%. He is long and athletic and dangerous from deep, in the midrange, and going to the rim. I would imagine that Mitchell gets the assignment on Franklin in this one. Aside from Franklin, it's mostly role players on the wings coming off the bench. Isaac McKneely (6'4", 180lb freshman) and Ryan Dunn (6'8", 205lb freshman) are the main contributors. McKneely is a top-60 recruit, and he is in there to shoot. He's a 43.7% 3pt shooter, and 3s account for about 75% of his shot attempts. Can't leave him open. Dunn is a rangy, athletic wing with great length and a better shooting stroke than his 30.8% 3pt percentage would suggest. He's a pest defensively with good versatility and shotblocking ability. Both McKneely and Dunn play regularly, but both are reserves.

Guards: The Hoos play a pair of PGs the majority of the game, and they are both very good players. Reece Beekman (6'3", 175lb junior) is the NBA prospect of the two. He has EXCELLENT defensive skills, both in terms of tenacity, length, and athleticism. The guy will be 1st team All-ACC Defense and on the short list for ACC DPoY, and with good reason. He's a royal pain in the rear on that end. On offense, he has developed into a capable 3pt shooter albeit on a low volume. But his best attribute is his ability off the dribble, where he has a terrific first step. Beekman is very unselfish, and his 5 assists per game could be even higher if in a faster paced team or if not playing next to another good passing PG. Clark looks like he should be the team mascot rather than a player, but he's very good in his own right. He is a terrific 3pt shooter, and can be a pest to the ballhandler bringing it up. He also leads the ACC in assists. Clark drives to pass, so it will be important for our shotblockers to stay home as long as possible if and when he gets into the lane, because challenging his shot will absolutely result in a dumpoff pass for a layup or dunk by one of the bigs.

I like this matchup a bit better than I do the Miami matchup in one aspect. UVa doesn't want to push the tempo at all, and Duke has struggled with teams who want to play frenetic defense on the perimeter and get uptempo. It's not that UVa won't run if handed the opportunity, but they are more than happy to play their boa constrictor style defense in the paint rather than extend pressure on the ball and force turnovers. That of course doesn't mean that Duke will be favored. UVa will be (and rightfully so) favored by about 5 in this one. It's just that I think UVa's style is a tad more conducive to what we want to do. Hopefully between that and having had a few days to recover and prepare for this one will lead to a better result, even if not a win. It will be a very difficult game as it always is against UVa, especially when they are the better team. But it will be an important test of our ability to bounce back.

[AGDukesky]

Good analysis! I don’t expect a win but it will be very disappointing if Coach can’t get the team to compete better and make this a contest. Another blowout loss would be a bad sign for the postseason imo.

[Southgate0809]

K owned UVA in this building. Hopefully, the secrets were passed along to Scheyer. Do we expect to see significant minutes from Ryan Young in this one? 10+ points from him would go along way against the UVA defense.

[azzefkram]

I hope Duke's guards value the ball a boatload more than they did Monday, Duke's bigs finish through contact, and Mark is glued to Franklin from the pre-game on. As long as Duke doesn't get 3 happy, I feel cautiously optimistic they can steal a win.

[MChambers]

Duke has usually done a pretty good job of getting good looks from 3 against the pack line defense. Of course, this team doesn't shoot 3s very well.

[Southgate0809]

Duke has usually done a pretty good job of getting good looks from 3 against the pack line defense. Of course, this team doesn't shoot 3s very well.

Yeah, seems like we shoot the 3 well when we beat Virginia. Sometimes, that takes individual players going off, like when Tatum did, but I also remember the 2019 team shooting the lights out at Virginia, and the current team certainly shoots better from 3 than they did. Also, not counting Lively's 3 attempt against UNC, we got 40% that game. He needs to stop doing that by the way.

[Dr. Maturin]

This is going to be a tough one. We'll need the focus and attention to detail showed in the UNC game, plus much better shooting.

The good news is that this is a much better tactical matchup than Miami. While Larranaga's teams are built to beat a Duke style defense, we've had much more luck over the years(relative to overall team strength) against UVA. Their blocker-mover offense involves a lot of off the ball screening and moving. Most of their baskets are assisted (67.5%, which is #3 in the country). We've had some success by switching on defense to counter their off-ball screens and daring them to beat us one on one. That said, both Clark and Beekman are quick guards capable of getting in the lane. In the UVA game at home last year, our rotations were terrible and they got a bunch of easy buckets off of drives. In the return game, we did much better, and it was only close because Clark became Stephen Curry and hit 6 threes in the first half. Duke needs to work hard to prevent open 3s in this one. And for the love of God, don't overcommit to help when Clark drives - he's looking to pass!

Offensively, I don't like the matchup as much. They don't really have a weakness. Our offensive rebounding has been a crutch this year, and they are good at preventing those. We have usually beaten UVA with either superior force of talent or by hitting 3s. Somehow we've managed to get hot at the right time in that building (Matt Jones and Tyus in 2015; Tatum in 2017, the whole team in 2019, AJ last year). Can that continue? I think we need to hit 3s to have a chance. We probably also need Flip to return to form.

[Southgate0809]

I also remember Roach having some good drives to the rim last year.

[dukelifer]

So Monday night sucked. No way around it. Saturday doesn't get much, if any, easier. Hopefully the team is better prepared to play this weekend than they were on Monday. If they are, they can win. If not, they will lose again.

UVa has been a steady presence in the top 10-15 of the metrics rankings this year: #14 in KenPom, #15 in Torvik. It's not a vintage Tony Bennett team, but it's still a very good team. They still play the pack line defense, and although it isn't as good as it was in Bennett's 2010s heyday, it's still a top-25 level defense. They make hitting 2s difficult, they do well on the defensive glass, and they do a good job of using their lower bodies to create contact so as to avoid foul calls. It's a very well-coached team, even if it isn't quite the optimal lineup for Bennett's system. On offense, they control the tempo (6th slowest pace in the country), avoid turnovers (8th best in the country), and they hit their 3s.

Centers: Kadin Shedrick (6'11", 230lb redshirt junior) has logged the most starts, although his starting spot has been usurped of late. He's by far the most talented center on the team, with good length and athleticism. But for whatever reason, he just hasn't found a consistent spot in Bennett's circle of trust. The former top-70 recruit is likely to come off the bench against us. He's their best shot blocker and dunk threat, but he just has never put it all together. The other true center on the roster is Francisco Caffaro (7'0", 250lb redshirt senior from Argentina). Caffaro DEFINITELY fits the Bennett mold, a big, burly space eater who sets screens and loves contact. Unfortunately, his skill level has never arrived, and as such he's remained a backup over his 5 years. He only shoots near the rim, and is a good rebounder. That said, he's been dealing with a foot injury and has missed several games. But even if he plays, it will be a bit role.

Forwards: The Hoos start a pair of forwards instead. Jayden Gardner (6'7", 235lb fifth year senior transfer from ECU) is the better of the two frontcourt players. He's a well-built guy with a decent shooting touch and solid post moves. His lack of height hinders him from being truly great, but he's still a very good player whose stat line understates how good he is (somewhat deflated by pace of play, and playing fewer minutes this year). The other starter is Ben Vander Plas (6'8", 235lb grad transfer from Ohio). Vander Plas is a stretch big with decent 3pt touch and overall skill level including the ability to dribble and pass. He's not overly athletic, and not a big rebounder, but he's a good system guy who fills his role after being a star at a lower level for the previous 3 years.

Wings: Armaan Franklin (6'4", 195lb senior transfer from Indiana) is the team's leading scorer. Franklin struggled a bit with his shot last year, but has been a really good shooter and scorer this year at 39.5%. He is long and athletic and dangerous from deep, in the midrange, and going to the rim. I would imagine that Mitchell gets the assignment on Franklin in this one. Aside from Franklin, it's mostly role players on the wings coming off the bench. Isaac McKneely (6'4", 180lb freshman) and Ryan Dunn (6'8", 205lb freshman) are the main contributors. McKneely is a top-60 recruit, and he is in there to shoot. He's a 43.7% 3pt shooter, and 3s account for about 75% of his shot attempts. Can't leave him open. Dunn is a rangy, athletic wing with great length and a better shooting stroke than his 30.8% 3pt percentage would suggest. He's a pest defensively with good versatility and shotblocking ability. Both McKneely and Dunn play regularly, but both are reserves.

Guards: The Hoos play a pair of PGs the majority of the game, and they are both very good players. Reece Beekman (6'3", 175lb junior) is the NBA prospect of the two. He has EXCELLENT defensive skills, both in terms of tenacity, length, and athleticism. The guy will be 1st team All-ACC Defense and on the short list for ACC DPoY, and with good reason. He's a royal pain in the rear on that end. On offense, he has developed into a capable 3pt shooter albeit on a low volume. But his best attribute is his ability off the dribble, where he has a terrific first step. Beekman is very unselfish, and his 5 assists per game could be even higher if in a faster paced team or if not playing next to another good passing PG. Clark looks like he should be the team mascot rather than a player, but he's very good in his own right. He is a terrific 3pt shooter, and can be a pest to the ballhandler bringing it up. He also leads the ACC in assists. Clark drives to pass, so it will be important for our shotblockers to stay home as long as possible if and when he gets into the lane, because challenging his shot will absolutely result in a dumpoff pass for a layup or dunk by one of the bigs.

I like this matchup a bit better than I do the Miami matchup in one aspect. UVa doesn't want to push the tempo at all, and Duke has struggled with teams who want to play frenetic defense on the perimeter and get uptempo. It's not that UVa won't run if handed the opportunity, but they are more than happy to play their boa constrictor style defense in the paint rather than extend pressure on the ball and force turnovers. That of course doesn't mean that Duke will be favored. UVa will be (and rightfully so) favored by about 5 in this one. It's just that I think UVa's style is a tad more conducive to what we want to do. Hopefully between that and having had a few days to recover and prepare for this one will lead to a better result, even if not a win. It will be a very difficult game as it always is against UVa, especially when they are the better team. But it will be an important test of our ability to bounce back.

I watched them yesterday against State and their D was locked in and barely fouled. State had a hard time running anything and their best offense was hitting deep threes from a 40%+ shooter. UVa does not turn the ball over so hard to get many points there. I am a bit worried that Flip will be left alone on the perimeter and he will shoot a bunch of threes and that has been an adventure. Their pack line will frustrate Mitchell and Flip on drives. Just not sure that Duke will be able to crack the code in 40 min. A very tough game for Duke - but Duke should be rested. UVa is an experienced and balanced team and Duke will need to play their A game to win.

[Kedsy]

Since Virginia is a system team, I've collated our advanced stats against them for the past four seasons (6 games). Here you go:

OFFENSE

Year	Tempo	AdjRat	eFG	2pt%	3pt%	%threes	Reb%	TO%	FTR	Score	H/A
2022 #1	63.9	1.11	48.1	45.7	35.3	32.7	38.2	23.4	42.3	68-69	H
2022 #2	59.4	1.15	55.0	51.5	41.2	34.0	19.4	13.5	34.0	65-61	A
2021	61.0	1.19	59.8	60.7	39.1	45.1	14.8	16.4	17.6	66-65	H
2020	62.9	0.96	33.9	33.3	23.5	28.8	28.6	15.9	25.4	50-52	A
2019 #1	62.9	1.32	52.9	64.9	14.3	27.5	30.3	12.7	60.9	72-70	H
2019 #2	63.1	1.46	72.2	54.2	61.9	46.7	36.4	23.8	51.1	81-71	A

DEFENSE

Year	Tempo	AdjRat	eFG	2pt%	3pt%	%threes	Reb%	TO%	FTR	Score	H/A
2022 #1	63.9	1.02	49.2	54.7	16.7	18.5	70.3	7.8	13.8	68-69	H
2022 #2	59.4	0.97	50.9	45.7	40.0	36.4	81.8	10.1	14.5	65-61	A
2021	61.0	0.93	54.8	51.2	45.5	21.2	66.7	21.3	19.2	66-65	H
2020	62.9	0.85	45.0	45.0	30.0	20.0	72.4	23.8	20.0	50-52	A
2019 #1	62.9	0.94	55.7	69.4	17.6	32.1	75.9	12.7	32.1	72-70	H
2019 #2	63.1	0.95	55.0	50.0	41.7	40.0	54.8	22.2	11.7	81-71	A

Obviously slow tempo in all six games. Our offense solved the packline in five of the six games (though those were good offensive teams (#1, #1, #18, #7, #7; the team that didn't fare well on offense was #12)). None of the four factors show any consistency among the games. Our defense has been decent but not great against Virginia. They've consistently done well on two-point shooting in the six games, but no other pattern emerges that I can see.

[Southgate0809]

What's our record in JPJ? They might as well call it coach K arena

[duke79]

What is the point spread in this game? I assume UVa is favored. For whatever reason, Duke has not played well on the road. I wonder if the freshman have been overly intimidated by the home crowds (I doubt they saw much of this in their high school careers)?

[Southgate0809]

What is the point spread in this game? I assume UVa is favored. For whatever reason, Duke has not played well on the road. I wonder if the freshman have been overly intimidated by the home crowds (I doubt they saw much of this in their high school careers)?

The State game and the Miami game seemed like ones where we were just overwhelmed by the other team's energy and the crowd. But it also looked like Clemson and VT had intense crowds, and we responded well there. I've been to plenty of games at JPJ. They like to talk on TV about how it's such a great college environment. It's a joke. Not Dean Dome level pathetic, but it's not exactly intimidating. I'm more concerned about UVA's defense causing bad shots and turnovers in the first few minutes of the game and having to play catchup after going down 10-2 early.

[CDu]

What is the point spread in this game? I assume UVa is favored. For whatever reason, Duke has not played well on the road. I wonder if the freshman have been overly intimidated by the home crowds (I doubt they saw much of this in their high school careers)?

I don't know the Vegas line. But we're a 6.2 point underdog according to Bart Torvik. I'd imagine KenPom's number is pretty similar to that.

I would guess a 5-6 point spread.

[UrinalCake]

I hate to say it but I think it will take a real outlier-type performance for us to win. The packline D means a crowded lane with plenty of opportunities for turnovers with multiple guys swiping at the ball. Open shots will be tough to come by, and our three point shooting on the road is just atrocious. We'll have very small windows to feed the ball into the post, which has not been a strength. I do think the slower pace will work to our advantage, as opposed to Miami who sped us up and ran us out of the gym. But we're going to somehow have to protect the ball, rebound well, and hit some threes. We'll have to play our best game of the entire season to come away with a win.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I hate to say it but I think it will take a real outlier-type performance for us to win.

All I can say for sure is that whatever happens in this game at UVA, people will see it as a referendum on the season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I hate to say it but I think it will take a real outlier-type performance for us to win. The packline D means a crowded lane with plenty of opportunities for turnovers with multiple guys swiping at the ball. Open shots will be tough to come by, and our three point shooting on the road is just atrocious. We'll have very small windows to feed the ball into the post, which has not been a strength. I do think the slower pace will work to our advantage, as opposed to Miami who sped us up and ran us out of the gym. But we're going to somehow have to protect the ball, rebound well, and hit some threes. We'll have to play our best game of the entire season to come away with a win.

Yeah. Coach K really understood how to attack the packline (14-5 against Bennett). Where the packline often opens is the 3, and that isn't exactly our forte this year.

This will be a tough, tough game for Scheyer. And agreed; it'll take a great Duke game to pull this one out. I wanna see a) as few turnovers as possible, b) continued solid rebounding, and c) not settling for an outrageous number of 3pt shots.

[flyingdutchdevil]

All I can say for sure is that whatever happens in this game at UVA, people will see it as a referendum on the season.

They are likely to win the ACC reg season, so I do hope we look back on this game.

And while Duke and UNC are undoubtedly bigger names with more exposure than UVA, Bennett should be the face of the ACC now that Coach K and Roy Williams are gone (and Bennett is one of two active ACC coaches to win it all. And the other coach is likely to retire in the next 14 months or so).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

They are likely to win the ACC reg season, so I do hope we look back on this game.

And while Duke and UNC are undoubtedly bigger names with more exposure than UVA, Bennett should be the face of the ACC now that Coach K and Roy Williams are gone (and Bennett is one of two active ACC coaches to win it all. And the other coach is likely to retire in the next 14 months or so).

I would say Bennett, Hamilton, and Larañega are the absolute elder statesmen of the league today. Bennett is obviously the one with the most yardage ahead of him.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I would say Bennett, Hamilton, and Larañega are the absolute elder statesmen of the league today. Bennett is obviously the one with the most yardage ahead of him.

As you mentioned, the issue is yardage. Bennett is 53. Hamilton is 74 (despite looking like 53). Larranaga is 73. Can't imagine either coaching past 3 years from the end of this season (RoyWill retired at 70; Coach K at 74). Boeheim is the oldest coach in the NCAA at 78.