MBB: Duke vs Carolina (2/4/23, 6:30 pm, ESPN) Pre-game & In-game Thread

[Southgate0809]

i have way too much time on my hands as I am going to wade into armchair coaching. We have as close to consensus as we are likely to have on DBR that Lively needs to avoid foul trouble on Saturday. With that in mind, would it make sense for Scheyer to have Lively front Bacot rather than playing behind? Rotation and weak side help becomes more important which is another issue. But if Lively plays behind, then Bacot can bang/muscle Lively which will lead to more/quicker fouls on DL, IMO. Why not make it more difficult to get the ball into Bacot. If the passes are lobs to get them over DL, then help side D has more time to rotate. etc.

Just a thought.

Interesting idea. I'd worry that Bacot would use this to his advantage and just be able to move Lively around to where he wants him.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Jeff Capel did the opposite last night. Pitt doubled the post and it worked out reasonably well. Bacot kept getting to the foul line, often on putback attempts, but the double team seemed to bother him. He was 3/10 from the floor and committed a critical turnover against the double team in the last minute.

But this Duke team doesn't double the post and I would be surprised if that changes on Saturday. I expect we will look to limit their shooters and hope our bigs can do their best without fouling against Bacot.

For all his accolades, Bacot isn't the most efficient scorer. In the three games against Duke last year, he was bad, great, and then ok trending towards bad.

2/5 @ UNC: 12 pts on 4-10 FG shooting and 4-5 FT shooting
3/5 vs Duke: 23 pts on 10-11 FG shooting and 3-4 FT shooting
4/2 vs. Duke: 11 pts on 3-10 FG shooting and 5-8 FT shooting

Bacot is a great rebounder and opportunistic scorer. He's not a guy that can reliably create his own shot as he doesn't have a bevy of post moves and counters like Ryan Young. Bacot's main move is to seal his man and then use his wide body to push and create an angle to attack the rim. He's not an explosive athlete but will get his shot up pretty quickly if given the opportunity. Duke did a very good job of forcing him to score over length in 2 of the 3 matchups last year.

Where I think Duke can really exploit Bacot is by finding opportunities to get him to be a help defender. Bacot is not an above-the-rim guy and doesn't have the lateral quickness to readjust if he commits his hips to a new direction. If a guard can get the ball into the lane or if Young or Filipowski can get a clean lane off a dribble hand off, pocket pass, or through the Horns Set, Bacot will be forced to help and allow Young/Lively/Filipowski to have a free layup or dunk.

Duke has to make Bacot work as much as possible. Don't give him cheap baskets off the offensive glass. Don't send him to the line 8, 10, or 15 times. Don't allow him to seal his man. Make him go over and around without fouling and live with the results. Duke can live with Bacot getting 20 points if it takes him 20 shots to do it.

[UrinalCake]

Interesting idea. I'd worry that Bacot would use this to his advantage and just be able to move Lively around to where he wants him.

I think you throw some double teams at him, helping off of Nance or Black. The help defense is still important in this case because Bacot is good about finding the man left open under the basket. Nance is no Brady Manek but he's an okay shooter. Black is bad but can hit them when he's open. Still I'd rather have those guys shooting than Bacot against single coverage in the post.

It's kind of funny to read the threads on IC, after yesterday's loss they are terrified of the game this weekend, some fans saying they're not even going to watch because they're expecting a blowout in our favor.

[DukieInBrasil]

I think you throw some double teams at him, helping off of Nance or Black. The help defense is still important in this case because Bacot is good about finding the man left open under the basket. Nance is no Brady Manek but he's an okay shooter. Black is bad but can hit them when he's open. Still I'd rather have those guys shooting than Bacot against single coverage in the post.

It's kind of funny to read the threads on IC, after yesterday's loss they are terrified of the game this weekend, some fans saying they're not even going to watch because they're expecting a blowout in our favor.

From IC's fingertips to god's ears...

[scottdude8]

For all his accolades, Bacot isn't the most efficient scorer. In the three games against Duke last year, he was bad, great, and then ok trending towards bad.

2/5 @ UNC: 12 pts on 4-10 FG shooting and 4-5 FT shooting
3/5 vs Duke: 23 pts on 10-11 FG shooting and 3-4 FT shooting
4/2 vs. Duke: 11 pts on 3-10 FG shooting and 5-8 FT shooting

Bacot is a great rebounder and opportunistic scorer. He's not a guy that can reliably create his own shot as he doesn't have a bevy of post moves and counters like Ryan Young. Bacot's main move is to seal his man and then use his wide body to push and create an angle to attack the rim. He's not an explosive athlete but will get his shot up pretty quickly if given the opportunity. Duke did a very good job of forcing him to score over length in 2 of the 3 matchups last year.

Where I think Duke can really exploit Bacot is by finding opportunities to get him to be a help defender. Bacot is not an above-the-rim guy and doesn't have the lateral quickness to readjust if he commits his hips to a new direction. If a guard can get the ball into the lane or if Young or Filipowski can get a clean lane off a dribble hand off, pocket pass, or through the Horns Set, Bacot will be forced to help and allow Young/Lively/Filipowski to have a free layup or dunk.

Duke has to make Bacot work as much as possible. Don't give him cheap baskets off the offensive glass. Don't send him to the line 8, 10, or 15 times. Don't allow him to seal his man. Make him go over and around without fouling and live with the results. Duke can live with Bacot getting 20 points if it takes him 20 shots to do it.

Yeah, this is one reason why I think the gameplan should focus on preventing Love/Davis from getting hot rather than Bacot. Bacot will get his no matter what, especially if the refs let him get away with what he did against Pitt last night. Let's not make it easy on Love and Davis by doubling Bacot... make the guards make tougher entry passes and decisions.

The other key for me: any three that isn't WIDE open is a win for UNC given their depth issues. Every possession we should be running some action that puts a Tar Heel in danger of picking up a foul. That was a big part of how we blew the lid off in Chapel Hill last year, and there's no reason we can't do it again this year if we can make Bacot guard Flip in some sets, or get him in screen-and-roll actions in others.

[azzefkram]

For all his accolades, Bacot isn't the most efficient scorer. In the three games against Duke last year, he was bad, great, and then ok trending towards bad.

2/5 @ UNC: 12 pts on 4-10 FG shooting and 4-5 FT shooting
3/5 vs Duke: 23 pts on 10-11 FG shooting and 3-4 FT shooting
4/2 vs. Duke: 11 pts on 3-10 FG shooting and 5-8 FT shooting

Bacot is a great rebounder and opportunistic scorer. He's not a guy that can reliably create his own shot as he doesn't have a bevy of post moves and counters like Ryan Young. Bacot's main move is to seal his man and then use his wide body to push and create an angle to attack the rim. He's not an explosive athlete but will get his shot up pretty quickly if given the opportunity. Duke did a very good job of forcing him to score over length in 2 of the 3 matchups last year.

Where I think Duke can really exploit Bacot is by finding opportunities to get him to be a help defender. Bacot is not an above-the-rim guy and doesn't have the lateral quickness to readjust if he commits his hips to a new direction. If a guard can get the ball into the lane or if Young or Filipowski can get a clean lane off a dribble hand off, pocket pass, or through the Horns Set, Bacot will be forced to help and allow Young/Lively/Filipowski to have a free layup or dunk.

Duke has to make Bacot work as much as possible. Don't give him cheap baskets off the offensive glass. Don't send him to the line 8, 10, or 15 times. Don't allow him to seal his man. Make him go over and around without fouling and live with the results. Duke can live with Bacot getting 20 points if it takes him 20 shots to do it.

While I agree with most of this, I am not sure that last year's info tells us much about this year though. Mark W was much better suited to counter Bacot than either Ryan or Dereck. Mark had Dereck's height and length combined with Ryan's bulk.

[dukelifer]

Yeah, this is one reason why I think the gameplan should focus on preventing Love/Davis from getting hot rather than Bacot. Bacot will get his no matter what, especially if the refs let him get away with what he did against Pitt last night. Let's not make it easy on Love and Davis by doubling Bacot... make the guards make tougher entry passes and decisions.

The other key for me: any three that isn't WIDE open is a win for UNC given their depth issues. Every possession we should be running some action that puts a Tar Heel in danger of picking up a foul. That was a big part of how we blew the lid off in Chapel Hill last year, and there's no reason we can't do it again this year if we can make Bacot guard Flip in some sets, or get him in screen-and-roll actions in others.

I agree. This is a guards game. Duke’s guards need to be very good in containing Davis and Love. That is no small task and still have energy for O. I also agree Duke needs to exploit UNC’s lack of depth. Get them in foul trouble and the game will change. Gonna be a chess match.

[kshepinthehouse]

in our last four games, Tyrese Proctor is shooting 39.1% from three on high volume (5.8 three-attempts per game), and even with all the turnovers last night has 4.8 apg, with an outstanding 3.2 a/to ratio. He's become a worthy offensive weapon.

If Whitehead comes back and can play at a similar level to before his injury, and if Roach's wrist is OK, we can put out a lineup with four or five (with Young) offensive weapons who need to be closely guarded. Even Lively has had some gravity lately as a lob threat and with his offensive rebounds.


FOUR FACTOR ANALYSIS:

REBOUNDING: Uncharacteristically, UNC has been blah at offensive rebounding this season (29.3%; #168) while Duke has been outstanding (38.2%; #2). Both teams are strong rebounding defensively, though UNC (76.0%; #22) is slightly better than Duke (74.5%; #58).

TURNOVERS: UNC doesn't turn it over very much (15.6%; #19) while Duke tends to be a little sloppy (18.3%; #152). On defense, UNC (16.0%; #322) is one of the few teams who forces fewer turnovers than Duke (17.7%; #233).

FREE THROW RATE: UNC gets to the line a LOT (41.6%; #11). Duke, not so much (30.5%; #209). On defense, neither UNC (24.3%; #27) nor Duke (24.1%; #25) allows their opponents to shoot many free throws. This is a prime rock/hard place situation which could potentially impact the game result.

TWO POINT SHOOTING: UNC (52.9%; #74) is better at making two-pointers than Duke (50.5%; #159). Duke (47.2%; #72) is better at defending two-pointers than UNC (48.9%; #127).

THREE POINT SHOOTING: Both teams kinda suck at shooting threes. UNC (31.8%; #283) sucks a bit worse than Duke (32.5%; #247). The good news is Duke is very good at defending threes (30.1%; #30) while UNC is only middling at it (33.6%; #160). More good news is Duke has shot 39.3% on threes over our past four games. UNC has shot a characteristic 31.0% on threes in their last four games.


OVERALL: UNC has a big advantage at getting to the line. Duke has a big advantage at offensive rebounding. UNC has a slight advantage at turnovers and shooting twos. Duke has a slight advantage at shooting threes (with some momentum, so maybe better than a slight advantage).

Playing at home, Torvik has Duke as a 4.8 point favorite. I think Pomeroy should have Duke as around a 3.5 point favorite.

What similar level are you referring to for Whitehead? As our lowest rated offensive player and a guy who in 3/4 of his last games shot below 34% what confidence do you have that he will be able to help
Much?

[kshepinthehouse]

Replying to get this on a new page as it was post #20 and I didn't want such an informative post getting lost in the shuffle.

I'm a bit hesitant as to how I feel about Whitehead in this one. On the one hand, if he comes back and can hit shots, he can be a difference maker. On the other, we've played the last two games without him well enough that we could win without him, and I'm concerned about the possibility of him coming back and trying to do too much, resulting in turnovers and/or a poor shooting performance. Obviously we can't know which will happen, but that's my only hesitation.

As our lowest offensively rated player, I was wondering if our offense, contrary to the eye test, would look like without him.

[kshepinthehouse]

Agree that is a big concern. I'm concerned about Bacot getting all the calls down low and on screens. Bacot gets the benefit of the doubt on so many foul calls, I worry that he fouls Lively out of the game early.

I think he’s gonna foul Lively out in about ten minutes.

[gofurman]

While Bacot will be a load, he does have to deal with Lively and, to a lesser extent, Young. I think Lively is up the task and Young can do a serviceable job, but Bacot will get his. If he can hold him to <20 points, I'll take it.

It's the guards I'm worried about.

Caleb Love, or as I like to call him, Jekyll and Hyde, has given Duke fans nightmares. His best game last year was the Final Four game. This year, his efficiency is pretty terrible: 28% from 3, 47% from 2, 14.6 PER. And those numbers look worse in conference play: 38.5% from 2, 27% from 3, 9.8 PER. With Love, I think you prevent the drives and bait him into contested 3s, which he loves taking. Love could have 6 points on Saturday; he could also have 25. Neither would surprise me.

RJ Davis, on the other hand, is a royal pain in the a. IMO, he's one of the better guards in the ACC who doesn't get enough credit. 38% from 3, 50% from 2, 16.4 ppg off 12 shots, 19.7 PER. He's a load. And his numbers are even better in the ACC: 45% from 3, 58% from 2, 17.7 ppg off 10.9 shots, 24.7 PER. If I'm Hubert, I'm putting the ball in this kid's hands for 90% of the game.

Not sure how to guard Davis. He's small, but so crafty. And he'll bait Roach into at least 2 shooting fouls. Do you take someone like Proctor - who has significant length over Davis - as the primary? Do you bring in Blakes early and often to be a pest? To me, he's the biggest concern for me regarding his underperforming UNC team. Bacot will get his, but how to you contain Davis?

big key. see the Pitt. RJ Davis has a hurt finger... thus his struggles v pitt. I hope it is still a pain for a few games. This would REALLY help us. The key is what Love and Davis contribute. If we can contain one of the two to less than 10 points we have a good chance. They really need Bacot, RJ and Love to do well. We need Roach, Flip and someone else to score well..

[KKDL19]

Could just come down to match ups and who gets hot.

I am not going to focus on Bacot vs any Duke bigs because he will do well. Unlike last year, Bacot will not be guarding Flip; that will go to Nance and Black and others

I will be watching Flip vs who ever UNC matches up with him.

But I also think bench production and scoring might be something to watch too. Duke can get production from Young, Grandison, Blakes whereas, UNC gets minutes from their bench but not much production.

Lastly, my X Factor(s)- Mitchell needs to come to play & if Whitehead plays.

[Kedsy]

What similar level are you referring to for Whitehead? As our lowest rated offensive player and a guy who in 3/4 of his last games shot below 34% what confidence do you have that he will be able to help
Much?

In calendar 2023, Dariq Whitehead has shot 46.7% from three on five three-attempts per game. He's basically been AJ Griffin with decent defense. Personally, I think that can help the team. YMMV.

[kshepinthehouse]

In calendar 2023, Dariq Whitehead has shot 46.7% from three on five three-attempts per game. He's basically been AJ Griffin with decent defense. Personally, I think that can help the team. YMMV.

And our record was 3-3 in those games. So how much did that help?

[Southgate0809]

And our record was 3-3 in those games. So how much did that help?

That's kind of a non-argument. We could have gone 0-6 if he wasn't playing.

[kshepinthehouse]

That's kind of a non-argument. We could have gone 0-6 if he wasn't playing.

We’ve won the last two without him. Offense has looked pretty good. According to Kenpom he is our lowest rated player offensively. He has shot poorly in 3/4 games. My argument is that I don’t necessarily trust him to be a difference maker vs UNC. I hope he is. I’ve hoped he turns into a super star all season. But given his recent poor performances, combined with his injury, if he’s even able to play he’d come off the bench for me and he’d have a short leash. Seems like we’ve been playing well without him.

[Southgate0809]

I agree on that. It's certainly not like waiting for Kyrie or Zion to come back from injury.

[AGDukesky]

I think he’s gonna foul Lively out in about ten minutes.

Well more like six minutes of game time spread over about two hours. But that last minute he will be well rested!

[DukieInBrasil]

I agree. This is a guards game. Duke’s guards need to be very good in containing Davis and Love. That is no small task and still have energy for O. I also agree Duke needs to exploit UNC’s lack of depth. Get them in foul trouble and the game will change. Gonna be a chess match.

This is why i think having Mitchell guard Love is a good idea, and then putting Proctor on Black. Leaky is a low-usage, low-threat player on offense, which is not to say that he's useless, but he doesn't require massive energy output to contain him. Proctor needs to keep his energy and sharpness for the offensive side of the ball. Leaky has several inches on Tyrese, but as long as Tyrese can be in Leaky's area i think that'll be good enough. It would be a waste of his defensive prowess to have Mitchell defend Leaky, so put him on Love. Roach vs Davis should be a good matchup both ways.

We’ve won the last two without him. Offense has looked pretty good. According to Kenpom he is our lowest rated player offensively. He has shot poorly in 3/4 games. My argument is that I don’t necessarily trust him to be a difference maker vs UNC. I hope he is. I’ve hoped he turns into a super star all season. But given his recent poor performances, combined with his injury, if he’s even able to play he’d come off the bench for me and he’d have a short leash. Seems like we’ve been playing well without him.

In general i agree with your assessment of Whitehead. I think he's a bit more useful than what you're saying about him, but i don't understand people who pine for him to come in and be some dynamic playmaking, slashing, offensive juggernaut. He hasn't been that all year, and i don't expect him to become that now. He has been a pretty good 3pt shooter lately, and that's something that Duke really needs. If he does play in the rivalry game, that's what i hope he does, not drive the lane. I think that the games we've won without him have much more to do with Proctor and Lively really growing into their roles much more than they had previously and also Roach playing like he's fully or near-fully healed that toe than any sort of addition by subtraction. For example, i think he would have been much more useful than Schutt ended up being the last 2 games.

[CDu]

In general I agree with your assessment of Whitehead. I think he's a bit more useful than what you're saying about him, but i don't understand people who pine for him to come in and be some dynamic playmaking, slashing, offensive juggernaut. He hasn't been that all year, and i don't expect him to become that now. He has been a pretty good 3pt shooter lately, and that's something that Duke really needs. If he does play in the rivalry game, that's what i hope he does, not drive the lane. I think that the games we've won without him have much more to do with Proctor and Lively really growing into their roles much more than they had previously and also Roach playing like he's fully or near-fully healed that toe than any sort of addition by subtraction. For example, i think he would have been much more useful than Schutt ended up being the last 2 games.

I am totally agnostic about Whitehead at this point. He has not shown at any point this season the game that earned him a top-2 high school ranking. So I definitely don't expect him to bring that to the table. What he has done - at times - well, is make 3s. But that wasn't a strength of his game in high school (he wasn't a bad shooter, but he wasn't a knockdown shooter), and it isn't like he's consistently been a good shooter this year either. He has only had a decent-to-good TS% (52% or better) in 6 of his 16 games. To be fair, 5 of those 6 were elite (60+% TS%), but for the season he's at an awful 45.9 TS% (and a still pretty awful 48.7 TS% in ACC play, and 47.9% from the FSU game onward). On top of that he's averaging 2.84 turnovers per 40 minutes, which is a really high number for a guy who has essentially been a jumpshooter.

Is it possible that he comes back and gets his timing down and start to be the impact player he was in high school? Maybe. But I definitely don't expect it to happen at this point. And I don't trust his shooting to be of value overall (though certainly in some games he'll be a huge shooting weapon) unless he literally just becomes a catch-and-shoot 3pt shooter.