MBB: Duke vs Carolina (2/4/23, 6:30 pm, ESPN) Pre-game & In-game Thread

[Southgate0809]

UNC is usually good at taking charges against us. The 2019 game at home was so frustrating. I hope that avoiding charges is an emphasis in practice.

[MartyClark]

My concern is Bacot gobbling up rebounds on both ends of the floor, and then converting the offensive rebounds for either an easy bucket in the paint or a great look from 3.

Agree that is a big concern. I'm concerned about Bacot getting all the calls down low and on screens. Bacot gets the benefit of the doubt on so many foul calls, I worry that he fouls Lively out of the game early.

[Southgate0809]

If Lively starts, what's the O/u on how many second it will take for him to have 2 fouls? I'd say 120.

[Music man55]

Well, it’s almost here. The cheats vs Duke. First, I agree that I hope Jon only plays Whitehead in spurts, maybe he hits a couple of threes and provides some good defensive help on Love and Davis, or anyone else he might be guarding.

Second, I agree with some other posters that RJ Davis is the player that concerns me most. He absolutely needs to be contained and not be allowed to drive and hit free throws. Don’t know who guards him, but limiting him would go a long way toward slowing down their offense. Love will probably hit some threes, but Davis concerns me more.

Third, if Flip can go right at Bacot and get some fouls on him, without lowering his shoulder and getting himself in foul trouble, it might slow Bacot down a little. I hope Lively can stay on the court for defensive purposes, because I think his presence might disrupt the cheat guards from driving successfully.

Summing it up, one never knows quite what to expect when these two square off. I, like everyone else, would love to beat these ##*^]%%#**#%! If Roger Ayers is one of the refs, then our chances probably go down Sat. Night. Go Duke 9F 9F 9F!!

[Phredd3]

That is why I emphasized the “IF” in my post: it is far from a given that we can make it happen with Flip in the post.

And just for the record, as the person who brought up the notion in the first place, I don't expect it to actually happen much, either. I'm just afraid that if Flip plays his usual game and tries to dribble-drive against Leaky Black, he's going to end up with another six-turnover kind of game. I'd prefer a little less pastry.

[Kedsy]

It's not an elite defense, but it is pretty good.

Duke adjusted dRating when Lively plays fewer than 15 minutes (9 games): 0.975 (equivalent of #48)

Duke adjusted dRating when Lively plays 15+ minutes (13 games): 0.875 (equivalent of #2)

So, one could argue that when Lively plays at least 15 minutes, we have been an elite defense. Though it could be a low-sample anomaly, since in our three of our four worst defensive performances, Dereck played 14, 12, and 12 minutes, and it's not like something magical happens during the 15th minute.

Still, it's probably not a coincidence that in our games against Power 6 teams in which our adjusted dRating was over 0.98 (7 games), Dereck averaged 12.6 mpg; and in such games in which our adjusted dRating was under 0.93 (also 7 games), Dereck averaged 17.3 mpg.

[UrinalCake]

Lively has got to stay straight up and down when defending Bacot. He may get called for a foul anyways, but at least don’t make it an easy call by lowering his arms. On the other end just sprint down the floor and try to beat Bacot down the court, that’s the only real advantage he has. UNC has no depth behind Bacot (though Washington played well in that one game when Bacot was out) so if we can tire him out a bit that would help a ton. For all of his accolades he does struggle to defend big physical posts so Young may be able to have his usual efficient scoring. I don’t expect him to ever get into foul trouble even though it did happen in the first game last season.

[CDu]

Duke adjusted dRating when Lively plays fewer than 15 minutes (9 games): 0.975 (equivalent of #48)

Duke adjusted dRating when Lively plays 15+ minutes (13 games): 0.875 (equivalent of #2)

So, one could argue that when Lively plays at least 15 minutes, we have been an elite defense. Though it could be a low-sample anomaly, since in our three of our four worst defensive performances, Dereck played 14, 12, and 12 minutes, and it's not like something magical happens during the 15th minute.

Still, it's probably not a coincidence that in our games against Power 6 teams in which our adjusted dRating was over 0.98 (7 games), Dereck averaged 12.6 mpg; and in such games in which our adjusted dRating was under 0.93 (also 7 games), Dereck averaged 17.3 mpg.

Yeah, I think it's fair to say that when Lively plays well enough to stay on the floor for more than 15 minutes, our defense is undeniably excellent. The question up until recently has been whether he can stay on the floor for more than those 15 minutes AND be a net positive over Young. Foul trouble made it hard to play him for a good chunk of the first half of the season (they could have technically played him more, but often he would get 2 quick fouls and thus be "behind the chains" in terms of foul trouble vs game situation), and on top of that until very recently the team was simply getting better results with Young on the court than they were with Lively on the court.

As you've noted, that has definitely evened out over the last 7-8 games, and in more recent games Lively's play has also improved with impact performances (albeit still in foul-limited minutes) in 3 of the last 4 games.

Moving forward, I think it's safe to say the defense will be excellent when he is on the floor. And it's feeling a bit more likely that he'll be able to stay on the floor more moving forward, as he seems fouling somewhat less now than earlier in the season. But more importantly than that, the offense seems to be struggling less with him in than it was earlier in the season, which explains why the team's plus/minus comparison is shifting (great defense and awful offense isn't necessarily more valuable than good offense and mediocre defense).

But I'm cautiously optimistic based on the last four games that Lively is in the midst of a breakout, and will be a big positive impact down the stretch. As to whether or not he's up for the challenge against Bacot? Yeah, I'm not going to venture a guess on that.

[azzefkram]

As to whether or not he's up for the challenge against Bacot? Yeah, I'm not going to venture a guess on that.

I am not very optimistic that Duke has an answer for Bacot. Maybe Duke can let him get his and limit everyone else. Maybe Duke will get lucky and the refs will actually call the multiple pushes in the back on rebounds and moving screens on offense, so Bacot gets in foul trouble. A man can dream, can't he?

[Kedsy]

Same. And Bacot will score a lot. I just hope it's closer to 20 than it is to 30.

In ACC play, not counting the UVa game in which he played one minute, Bacot is averaging 20 points per game. Again not counting Virginia, he's only had two ACC games below 20 points (14 vs. Louisville in his lowest minute (25) ACC game; and 18 vs. Syracuse), and his high scoring game in ACC play is 23 points.

So, he's consistently within a few points of the 20 point mark. I suppose he could blow up for 30 against Duke, but if he didn't do that against anybody else, it seems unlikely against the tallest team in the ACC.

[Southgate0809]

I am not very optimistic that Duke has an answer for Bacot. Maybe Duke can let him get his and limit everyone else. Maybe Duke will get lucky and the refs will actually call the multiple pushes in the back on rebounds and moving screens on offense, so Bacot gets in foul trouble. A man can dream, can't he?

They have called charges on him before when he lowers his shoulder. I think Lively can get away with taking a charge because he's so much thinner than Bacot. Young has been great at throwing his weight into opposing bigs that try to back him down. If he really puts his body into Bacot and frustrates him, I can see Bacot firing back and lowering his shoulder. If Bacot goes out, I think you want a healthy mix of Lively and Young. From a defensive standpoint, you should be able to shut down things inside and force some bad 3's. From an offensive standpoint, you want Young to feast in the post.

[CDu]

I am not very optimistic that Duke has an answer for Bacot. Maybe Duke can let him get his and limit everyone else. Maybe Duke will get lucky and the refs will actually call the multiple pushes in the back on rebounds and moving screens on offense, so Bacot gets in foul trouble. A man can dream, can't he?

Fingers crossed. If Bacot is allowed to use his body, I think he will get Lively in foul trouble. And while Young can hang with Bacot he doesn’t have Bacot’s length. But maybe Lively figures out how to stay down on any fakes, and avoids those fouls? If so, he can be disruptive for sure.

And maybe we will catch some breaks with Bacot getting called for some early ones.

[dukelifer]

How often are actually running anything to get Flip the ball in the low post? I know we did late in the Wake game, but seems mostly all season Flip has been a face up guy at 15ft and out who looks to either drive or back down closer. More of this could play into Leaky's defensive strengths. My perception could be off here, but running plays for Flip in the low post seems like it is an uncommon set for our offense.

For Duke to win this game, Scheyer needs to get a bit creative with how to use Flip. The team plays better at home but UNC has a huge psychological advantage in this game- with their core having played in this rivalry game many times and on the biggest stage. The Duke kids need to be very careful out of the gate- because nervousness or over anxiousness could burn a lot of adrenaline early and the game may get out of hand quickly. It will come down to guard play. I have no idea which Proctor will show up but Duke needs Proctor to hit shots and not turn it over. The matchups are not bad but UNC will be very confident and they know the world is watching. Foul trouble may be the difference -we shall see. It will take a lot for a young Duke to win this one.

[Kedsy]

Despite not having a "true" point guard, this year's Duke team has assisted on 56.4% of its baskets. Going back 20 years, that's Duke's 2nd-highest team assist% (behind only 2018's 57.6%).

Right now, all nine of Duke's rotation players have an assist% of 10.0 or higher, though Filipowski (10.1%), Lively (10.1%), and Mitchell (10.0%) just make the cut. Going back to 2006 (as far as I could easily go), among players with 300 or more minutes only one Duke team has had more than five such players, and that one team (2009) had six.

Obviously teams that only play a 7-man rotation have a disadvantage in the "how many players did x" competition, and of course there's a lot of season to play but so far Duke has really been sharing the ball well.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Despite not having a "true" point guard, this year's Duke team has assisted on 56.4% of its baskets. Going back 20 years, that's Duke's 2nd-highest team assist% (behind only 2018's 57.6%).

Right now, all nine of Duke's rotation players have an assist% of 10.0 or higher, though Filipowski (10.1%), Lively (10.1%), and Mitchell (10.0%) just make the cut. Going back to 2006 (as far as I could easily go), among players with 300 or more minutes only one Duke team has had more than five such players, and that one team (2009) had six.

Obviously teams that only play a 7-man rotation have a disadvantage in the "how many players did x" competition, and of course there's a lot of season to play but so far Duke has really been sharing the ball well.

I recall a preseason quote - or maybe it was in reference to a recruiting effort - from Coach Scheyer that he wants his teams to lead the nation in assists and made three-pointers. Duke is definitely not there in the shooting category but well on its way in the assists category. Future recruiting classes are said to include better shooters.

[CameronBornAndBred]

We know it's never happened before in Duke-UNC history, so Saturday will be a first. However, I wonder how many other times that a rivalry game has been coached by two people that had previously been players on their teams. Or even simply within conference, regardless of "rivalry" status.

[kako]

5 thoughts...

1. I hope that Lively can stay in the game to be a defensive disrupter down low, but I have my doubts. I think he will be called for fouls, Bacot is too experienced. But if Lively can stay in the game and alter shots, big upside.

2. I think Bacot will get his. So our perimeter D needs to be better than with Wake. I think we got lucky that Wake missed several open outside shots. Counting on that twice in a row is low probability. So containing UNC's guards is important.

3. I don't expect Whitehead to play. If he does, to me anything he can give is a bonus. That includes just taking a few minutes to give the others a breather without being a liability.

4. I believe this is a game where Young may be a factor. Either drawing fouls, hitting the open man from the post or getting those power lay ups he's good at.

5. For the overall season, we need to defend home court with fervor. But I do hope Roach, Blakes and the staff convey the gravity of the losses last season. Time to get a win vs. Carolina.

9F

[Bob Green]

My guess on matchups, at least to start, will be:

Mitchell on Black (though I'd be intrigued by Mitchell on Love)

I’m all aboard the Mitchell on Love train. Mitchell is a tough defender so let’s use him to shutdown Love. I believe Mitchell’s length will frustrate Love.

[jipops]

For Duke to win this game, Scheyer needs to get a bit creative with how to use Flip. The team plays better at home but UNC has a huge psychological advantage in this game- with their core having played in this rivalry game many times and on the biggest stage. The Duke kids need to be very careful out of the gate- because nervousness or over anxiousness could burn a lot of adrenaline early and the game may get out of hand quickly. It will come down to guard play. I have no idea which Proctor will show up but Duke needs Proctor to hit shots and not turn it over. The matchups are not bad but UNC will be very confident and they know the world is watching. Foul trouble may be the difference -we shall see. It will take a lot for a young Duke to win this one.

Proctor has been consistently good for the last 2/3 of January. So hopefully the current Proctor shows up, and better yet one that efficiently makes shots.

A lot has to go right on Saturday for a favorable outcome. I think that begins with staying out of foul trouble. If we have to go heavy on the bench early and lose either Roach, Proctor, or Flip for an extended amount of time - then this game could get out of hand very quickly. I do see Lively piling up some quick fouls. Hopefully we can keep it close enough to where he is available to be a factor on D late.

[gumbomoop]

As there’s no “This Week” thread for this week, I’ll post here that the Pitt-UNC game has gotten very chippy. Double techs, crowd into it. UNC by 1.

ETA - More chippiness, lots more.