MBB: Duke vs Carolina (2/4/23, 6:30 pm, ESPN) Pre-game & In-game Thread

[CDu]

If Black does guard Flip (and I agree that's likely), I hope we invert our posts and get Flip posted up. If Flip dribbles against Black, it's advantage Black. But if Flip gets the ball in the post on Leaky, it's Flip who is going to find a way, I think.

I agree that IF we can get the ball to Flip in the low post against Black, our chances of scoring are really good. Either on the initial shot or on a putback. So long as we can draw both Nance and Bacot away from the rim, as those two guys can muck up our offensive rebounding prowess.

That's going to be one of the interesting battles in my opinion: UNC is a VERY good defensive rebounding team, while we are an ELITE offensive rebounding team. I tend to think that defensive rebounding teams usually win out on the boards against offensive rebounding teams (I think it's harder to offensive rebound against a really good defensive rebounding team than it is to defensive rebound against a really good offensive rebounding team). But if we can still win those offensive rebounds, that will help a lot.

Factors that are in conflict:
- We offensive rebound really well, but UNC defensive rebounds really well (as noted above)
- We don't foul, but UNC draws a lot of fouls
- We are a bit turnover prone, but UNC doesn't force turnovers
- We play slow, UNC plays fast

Other factors that seem to go together like PB and J:
- We don't draw fouls, and UNC doesn't get called for fouls
- We defend the 3 really well (both in limiting attempts and in limiting %), UNC doesn't shoot it well at all or often
- We don't force turnovers, UNC doesn't commit them

It's going to be an interesting test. UNC has a huge advantage in experience. Both teams have played a similar level this season (both disappointing relative to expectations). UNC has been more steady (as you might expect from a veteran team), whereas we have been all over the place.

At each team's best this season, we have a clear edge. We've had 7 games with a Torvik game score of 95 (out of 100) or better, versus UNC's 1; we have 4 games better than UNC's best performance. But on average, UNC has played slightly better thanks to them avoiding the absolute clunkers (we have 3 games with a 50 or below game score; UNC has none).

[CDu]

in our last four games, Tyrese Proctor is shooting 39.1% from three on high volume (5.8 three-attempts per game), and even with all the turnovers last night has 4.8 apg, with an outstanding 3.2 a/to ratio. He's become a worthy offensive weapon.

If Whitehead comes back and can play at a similar level to before his injury, and if Roach's wrist is OK, we can put out a lineup with four or five (with Young) offensive weapons who need to be closely guarded. Even Lively has had some gravity lately as a lob threat and with his offensive rebounds.


FOUR FACTOR ANALYSIS:

REBOUNDING: Uncharacteristically, UNC has been blah at offensive rebounding this season (29.3%; #168) while Duke has been outstanding (38.2%; #2). Both teams are strong rebounding defensively, though UNC (76.0%; #22) is slightly better than Duke (74.5%; #58).

TURNOVERS: UNC doesn't turn it over very much (15.6%; #19) while Duke tends to be a little sloppy (18.3%; #152). On defense, UNC (16.0%; #322) is one of the few teams who forces fewer turnovers than Duke (17.7%; #233).

FREE THROW RATE: UNC gets to the line a LOT (41.6%; #11). Duke, not so much (30.5%; #209). On defense, neither UNC (24.3%; #27) nor Duke (24.1%; #25) allows their opponents to shoot many free throws. This is a prime rock/hard place situation which could potentially impact the game result.

TWO POINT SHOOTING: UNC (52.9%; #74) is better at making two-pointers than Duke (50.5%; #159). Duke (47.2%; #72) is better at defending two-pointers than UNC (48.9%; #127).

THREE POINT SHOOTING: Both teams kinda suck at shooting threes. UNC (31.8%; #283) sucks a bit worse than Duke (32.5%; #247). The good news is Duke is very good at defending threes (30.1%; #30) while UNC is only middling at it (33.6%; #160). More good news is Duke has shot 39.3% on threes over our past four games. UNC has shot a characteristic 31.0% on threes in their last four games.


OVERALL: UNC has a big advantage at getting to the line. Duke has a big advantage at offensive rebounding. UNC has a slight advantage at turnovers and shooting twos. Duke has a slight advantage at shooting threes (with some momentum, so maybe better than a slight advantage).

Playing at home, Torvik has Duke as a 4.8 point favorite. I think Pomeroy should have Duke as around a 3.5 point favorite.

Replying to get this on a new page as it was post #20 and I didn't want such an informative post getting lost in the shuffle.

I'm a bit hesitant as to how I feel about Whitehead in this one. On the one hand, if he comes back and can hit shots, he can be a difference maker. On the other, we've played the last two games without him well enough that we could win without him, and I'm concerned about the possibility of him coming back and trying to do too much, resulting in turnovers and/or a poor shooting performance. Obviously we can't know which will happen, but that's my only hesitation.

[Kedsy]

Replying to get this on a new page as it was post #20 and I didn't want such an informative post getting lost in the shuffle.

Thank you.

I'm a bit hesitant as to how I feel about Whitehead in this one. On the one hand, if he comes back and can hit shots, he can be a difference maker. On the other, we've played the last two games without him well enough that we could win without him, and I'm concerned about the possibility of him coming back and trying to do too much, resulting in turnovers and/or a poor shooting performance. Obviously we can't know which will happen, but that's my only hesitation.

Yeah, this is a very good point. Now I don't know how I feel about it, either.

- We play slow, UNC plays fast

I missed talking about tempo in my earlier post. UNC does play a fair bit faster than Duke (adjusted tempo of 68.9 vs. 65.5), but this isn't really the run-run-run UNC to which we've grown accustomed. KenPom rates them as just the 94th-fastest team in the country. Last year they were #39 and the year before that, #43.

At each team's best this season, we have a clear edge. We've had 7 games with a Torvik game score of 95 (out of 100) or better, versus UNC's 1; we have 4 games better than UNC's best performance. But on average, UNC has played slightly better thanks to them avoiding the absolute clunkers (we have 3 games with a 50 or below game score; UNC has none).

Well, since Duke is #27 in Torvik to UNC's #41, and #29 to UNC's #32 in Pomeroy, wouldn't that suggest that on average Duke has played a little better?

[Southgate0809]

Replying to get this on a new page as it was post #20 and I didn't want such an informative post getting lost in the shuffle.

I'm a bit hesitant as to how I feel about Whitehead in this one. On the one hand, if he comes back and can hit shots, he can be a difference maker. On the other, we've played the last two games without him well enough that we could win without him, and I'm concerned about the possibility of him coming back and trying to do too much, resulting in turnovers and/or a poor shooting performance. Obviously we can't know which will happen, but that's my only hesitation.

I have the same feeling about Whitehead. Maybe it being his potential first game back from injury would cause him to slow down and let the game come to him. If he can just hit a couple 3's and play good D, that's a big contribution from him. When his 3's go in, they look absolutely perfect. That darn Appleby had some perfect swishes last night for Wake.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I agree with others that my hope for Whitehead, if he is healthy, is to come in off the bench, hit some 3's, and generally be a positive contributor for spurts. Between Whitehead and Grandison, Duke needs to get a few 3's to drop from the bench players.

[CDu]

Well, since Duke is #27 in Torvik to UNC's #41, and #29 to UNC's #32 in Pomeroy, wouldn't that suggest that on average Duke has played a little better?

Not exactly, at least it depends on what metric you look at.

Torvik and KenPom both include other temporal weights in their season-long metrics. That means that different games provide different contributions to each team's overall efficiency margins. And I think that's a reasonable way to project the current quality of a team, discounting some of the November/December performances over time.

But simply looking at the average game score for each team, UNC's is 4 points higher (~82 to our ~78). Meaning that on a straight average of each game with uniform weight, UNC has been slightly better. It's just that for whatever reason, the "secret sauce" in the formulas favor us in terms of efficiency margin.

[CDu]

I have the same feeling about Whitehead. Maybe it being his potential first game back from injury would cause him to slow down and let the game come to him. If he can just hit a couple 3's and play good D, that's a big contribution from him. When his 3's go in, they look absolutely perfect. That darn Appleby had some perfect swishes last night for Wake.

Yeah, the range of outcomes for Whitehead is just SO wide. He could change the game either way if he comes back and is a high-volume player. Alternatively, if he can come back and play like a Grandison type of role, that would be a huge boost too as it would give us less of a window for a total collapse. It's just a big unknown.

[Kedsy]

Not exactly, at least it depends on what metric you look at.

Torvik and KenPom both include other temporal weights in their season-long metrics. That means that different games provide different contributions to each team's overall efficiency margins. And I think that's a reasonable way to project the current quality of a team, discounting some of the November/December performances over time.

But simply looking at the average game score for each team, UNC's is 4 points higher (~82 to our ~78). Meaning that on a straight average of each game with uniform weight, UNC has been slightly better. It's just that for whatever reason, the "secret sauce" in the formulas favor us in terms of efficiency margin.

Ah. I see what you're saying. And almost all of that average difference comes from our historically bad 10 game score against NC State.

[CDu]

Ah. I see what you're saying. And almost all of that average difference comes from our historically bad 10 game score against NC State.

Yep, aside from that disaster I think we are probably right around UNC in average game score.

[jipops]

Appleby's performance last night gives me concern about the Davis / Roach matchup.

Agree with what has previously been stated about Whitehead. Will he actually be a net benefit coming back in this game for a team that has played pretty well without him for the past two? I think there is a case to be made that defensively he can step right in and be of high value. If he is back for Saturday, I would personally like to see him be of low usage on the offensive end but give us some versatility on defense against somebody like Caleb Love.

Individual matchup-wise and comparing the levels of experience on both rosters - this appears to have the makings of a blowout win for unc. But numbers-wise we look pretty even. I guess there is no result that would be surprising here.

[brevity]

I would normally break down the analytics in this one and talk about what the players do or don't do well. That kind of all goes out the window in this one.

Thank you. When discussing UNC basketball, there's not nearly enough defenestration.

[jipops]

I agree that IF we can get the ball to Flip in the low post against Black, our chances of scoring are really good. Either on the initial shot or on a putback. So long as we can draw both Nance and Bacot away from the rim, as those two guys can muck up our offensive rebounding prowess.

How often are actually running anything to get Flip the ball in the low post? I know we did late in the Wake game, but seems mostly all season Flip has been a face up guy at 15ft and out who looks to either drive or back down closer. More of this could play into Leaky's defensive strengths. My perception could be off here, but running plays for Flip in the low post seems like it is an uncommon set for our offense.

[Southgate0809]

I know we've all begged for it all season and it hasn't happened, so I don't expect it to happen on Saturday, BUT what an interesting idea to put Flip at the 5 just for a little bit. See if he can pull Bacot away from the basket and get some fouls on him. Or if they kept Nance on him, let Mitchell or Whitehead try to drive past him.

[CDu]

How often are actually running anything to get Flip the ball in the low post? I know we did late in the Wake game, but seems mostly all season Flip has been a face up guy at 15ft and out who looks to either drive or back down closer. More of this could play into Leaky's defensive strengths. My perception could be off here, but running plays for Flip in the low post seems like it is an uncommon set for our offense.

Yep, that is the tricky question. How often have we TRIED getting it to Flip in the post? A not unreasonably small amount, especially more recently. How often have we SUCCEEDED in getting it to Flip in the post? A much smaller number.

Between Flip not being great at establishing and maintaining good post position and the team not being great at post entry passes, we haven’t had much success feeding Flip in the post.

We have one guy who is elite at getting/maintaining good post position (Young), and a few guys who are good at feeding the post (Grandison, Young, Whitehead). Proctor and Mitchell have their moments but aren’t consistently able to do it to anyone other than Young (who makes it so much easier to do). And when you add in that Flip hasn’t learned the tricks of the post-up trade yet, it makes for a bad combo.

That is why I emphasized the “IF” in my post: it is far from a given that we can make it happen with Flip in the post.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yep, that is the tricky question. How often have we TRIED getting it to Flip in the post? A not unreasonably small amount, especially more recently. How often have we SUCCEEDED in getting it to Flip in the post? A much smaller number.

Between Flip not being great at establishing and maintaining good post position and the team not being great at post entry passes, we haven’t had much success feeding Flip in the post.

We have one guy who is elite at getting/maintaining good post position (Young), and a few guys who are good at feeding the post (Grandison, Young, Whitehead). Proctor and Mitchell have their moments but aren’t consistently able to do it to anyone other than Young (who makes it so much easier to do). And when you add in that Flip hasn’t learned the tricks of the post-up trade yet, it makes for a bad combo.

That is why I emphasized the “IF” in my post: it is far from a given that we can make it happen with Flip in the post.

And the issue being the man guarding Flip has the size, strength, and savviness to prevent Flip from getting the ball in the post (Black). Despite Flip's 3 inch advantage, I suspect Black will bully Flip in the post without fouling (much like he did with Paolo last year).

I think better lines of attack are Mitchell-v-Nance (Mitchell is much quicker but if UNC double teams, Mitchell likely has a TO) or Proctor-v-Love (Love has pretty terrible defensive numbers).

Should be a fun game. The two teams are more similar to one another than they historically have been.

My random prediction: Grandison scores 12+ points cus Love/Nance ignore him.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Appleby's performance last night gives me concern about the Davis / Roach matchup.

Agree with what has previously been stated about Whitehead. Will he actually be a net benefit coming back in this game for a team that has played pretty well without him for the past two? I think there is a case to be made that defensively he can step right in and be of high value. If he is back for Saturday, I would personally like to see him be of low usage on the offensive end but give us some versatility on defense against somebody like Caleb Love.

Individual matchup-wise and comparing the levels of experience on both rosters - this appears to have the makings of a blowout win for unc. But numbers-wise we look pretty even. I guess there is no result that would be surprising here.

I thought Duke did a pretty good job on Appleby last night. Or, at least, they played him according to the game plan. As was noted on the broadcast, the plan was to make Appelby a scorer instead of a distributor. He was not overly efficient at either for most of the game. Don't get me wrong, Appelby did score 27 points on 9-19 shooting for the game. On the other hand, 2 of those FGs were an uncontested layup and then a halfcourt heave as the buzzer went off. Up until then, he was 7-17 from the floor, including 1-4 from 3, and had 4 assists against 4 turnovers. Everyone else was ineffective. Damari Monsanto was mostly a non-factor all game until a couple of late 3s. For the game, though, he was 3-12 from behind the arc. Andrew Carr was 1-7. The Wake team outside of Appelby was 7-26 from 3. Monsanto, Williamson, and Appleby are all very good 3-point shooters. The team did a good job of limiting dribble penetration by Appleby and forced him into a shot maker instead of a guy that got the others clean looks. Appleby had averaged 7.3 assits per game in the previous 10. So I see the gameplan worked.

I think RJ Davis presents a similar challenge to Duke and will require a similar approach. Davis is quick and gets to his shots. He can also setup his teammates as well as get to the FT line. But UNC hasn't had the shooters around him that Wake has around Appleby. Love CAN hit shots but is just as likely to make a bad decision. Nance can hit shots, but he is just as likely to take a deep 2 as a 3 and isn't mobile enough to hunt his shot the way Manek was. Leaky Black, in year 5, isn't a shooter and probably won't ever be one throughout his basketball career. Bacot isn't either. I think Duke just stays home on the shooters and uses its length and size up front to deter drives to the rim. Keep UNC from getting open looks at the rim and off the FT line. With Mitchell, they can even help off of Black when Bacot gets a post touch to make it easier on Lively, Young, and Filipowski to just wall up and remain out of foul trouble. I think my biggest concern in this one is allowing Davis to get too many FT attempts. Just play it straight up, have Lively practice going straight up as much as possible, and use the size to control the defensive glass. That's all easier said than done...

Last year, Duke's defenders would get on an island and allow Davis and Love to carve them up. I think Proctor, Mitchell, Filipowski, and Lively are more equipped to prevent dribble penetration. Mitchell and Lively are more than capable of using their length on a switch to both guards until the rotation comes. Filipowski has also proven to be no slouch of a defender out to the perimeter. Proctor is fundamentally sound on that end as well. So often last year, Griffin or Keels would be out of position or Banchero or Williams would be caught guarding to 20+ feet away from the rim. This is a team that, at least to my eye, isn't trying to hide someone that can't be in the right place. It's not an elite defense, but it is pretty good. If they can get the defensive board to close out a possession, I like their chances.

[scottdude8]

Nice post and good start to the thread.

It does seem like Bacot will be a handful, but I think it's UNC's outside game that will prove to be the difference in the game. If their guards are hitting threes and driving without push back, it will be a long night. I'd like to see Blakes (maybe without the mask?) be a ball hawk and really disrupt some high/low play and get in passing lanes.

For offense - well, I have no idea what to expect. We rolled GT so easily it was hard to determine what our efficacy was on different things. Wake seemed like we exploited the inside game well and hit enough perimeter shots to keep them honest on D.

Flip will likely have a much harder time creating space on offense with Bacot on him. If he can be effective on offense, grab his share of the rebounds and we can create turnovers - I like our chances.

I have a weird perspective on this game... I don't mind if Bacot goes off, if it means we contain Love and Davis. That's very counterintuitive and probably goes a bit against the grain, but it sounds like Mtn.Devil agrees with me here. I'd rather give up the occasional easy bucket or put back to Bacot if that means we're forcing Love/Davis into tough shots on the outside. Another way I see this paying dividends is making it harder on Love/Davis to get Bacot the ball rather than making it difficult for Bacot once he gets the ball. Don't worry about doubling Bacot once he gets the ball, but instead pressure Love/Davis on the perimeter and do some fronting on the inside to create opportunities for turnovers.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I have a weird perspective on this game... I don't mind if Bacot goes off, if it means we contain Love and Davis. That's very counterintuitive and probably goes a bit against the grain, but it sounds like Mtn.Devil agrees with me here. I'd rather give up the occasional easy bucket or put back to Bacot if that means we're forcing Love/Davis into tough shots on the outside. Another way I see this paying dividends is making it harder on Love/Davis to get Bacot the ball rather than making it difficult for Bacot once he gets the ball. Don't worry about doubling Bacot once he gets the ball, but instead pressure Love/Davis on the perimeter and do some fronting on the inside to create opportunities for turnovers.

Same. And Bacot will score a lot. I just hope it's closer to 20 than it is to 30.

With Love, he either contains himself or he goes off. The same defender/defensive scheme can make Love score 7 points off 2-14 shooting or score 29 points off 10-19 shooting. The kid is arguably the most erratic scorer in the ACC.

Davis is the one that needs to be contained, IMO. And I don't think Roach is best positioned to do so, although Proctor on Davis has it's warts too.

[cato]

I have a weird perspective on this game... I don't mind if Bacot goes off, if it means we contain Love and Davis. That's very counterintuitive and probably goes a bit against the grain, but it sounds like Mtn.Devil agrees with me here. I'd rather give up the occasional easy bucket or put back to Bacot if that means we're forcing Love/Davis into tough shots on the outside. Another way I see this paying dividends is making it harder on Love/Davis to get Bacot the ball rather than making it difficult for Bacot once he gets the ball. Don't worry about doubling Bacot once he gets the ball, but instead pressure Love/Davis on the perimeter and do some fronting on the inside to create opportunities for turnovers.

My concern is Bacot gobbling up rebounds on both ends of the floor, and then converting the offensive rebounds for either an easy bucket in the paint or a great look from 3.

[DavidBenAkiva]

And the issue being the man guarding Flip has the size, strength, and savviness to prevent Flip from getting the ball in the post (Black). Despite Flip's 3 inch advantage, I suspect Black will bully Flip in the post without fouling (much like he did with Paolo last year).

I think better lines of attack are Mitchell-v-Nance (Mitchell is much quicker but if UNC double teams, Mitchell likely has a TO) or Proctor-v-Love (Love has pretty terrible defensive numbers).

Should be a fun game. The two teams are more similar to one another than they historically have been.

My random prediction: Grandison scores 12+ points cus Love/Nance ignore him.

FWIW, Paolo vs UNC last season:

2/5 @ UNC: 13 pts/10 reb/2 ast/1 tov on 5-14 shooting from the floor and 1-2 from the FT line <-- this was the game where Duke won by 20 behind AJ Griffin's 27-point performance. Everyone not named Paolo shot 22-30 from 2-point range in this one.
3/5 v UNC: 23 pts/5 reb/5 ast/4 tov on 11-26 shooting from the floor and 1 FT attempt
4/2 v UNC: 20 pts/10 reb/2 ast/2 blk/1 tov on 8-17 shooting from the floor and 2-4 from the FT line

Paolo kind of struggled to be efficient against UNC, even with Bacot primarily guarding him. If I recall, Bacot was torched by Banchero in the first few minutes of the game at Chapel Hill, but Coach Davis elected to have Leaky Black defend AJ Griffin after Brady Manek was torched to start the second half. That game got away from UNC early and then again in the second half.

I do think that Black is going to cause problems for Flip. On the other hand, Banchero had a habit of starting his offense about 15-22 ft from the hoop whereas Filipowski is more willing to dive in and use his height to score around the rim. If you look at T-Rank, Banchero settled for a lot of far 2-point jumpers. He took almost 51% of his 2-point attempts from the midrange. For Filipowski, nearly 72% of his 2-point attempts are considered close 2s. I don't think Filipowski camps out down low and he obviously feels comfortable facing up. On the other hand, he is so much more wired to get to the rim to take his shots than Banchero was. Flip has both the height and mindset to punish Black inside if that's what UNC decides to do. The key for Filipowski is going to be limiting the turnovers and making smart decisions instead of forcing the action. He's been a lot better at those facets of the game lately. Black is a great defender and I could see him getting Filipowski to make bad decisions. But if I were Coach Scheyer, I would see if I could find a way for Filipowski to get one-on-one matchups down low against Black. I think the back-to-the-basket approach could lead to success vs. having Flip try to drive on Black.