MBB: Duke 75, Wake Forest 73 Post-Game Thread

[ChrisP]

How sweet it is!!!

[arnie]

We won and that’s all that matters, but need to play much better Saturday to beat the Cheats. Not sure why our good FT shooters can’t finish the job at the end.

[lotusland]

Bad stall ball at the end. Cheap fouls, turnovers and missed free throws defeat the purpose.

[bluenorth]

For me the best part of the game was the continued development of Coach S. He was, is, and will be just fine as Duke's leader.

[DukieInBrasil]

Really? The final margin was so deceiving based on last minute foul-and-jack-up-shots stuff when the game was no longer in doubt after Kyle put it to bed. I really don’t think that’s the takeaway here.

Duke has given away 8 pt leads with less than 20 seconds before. This game was one more missed front end of a 1n1 away from being a loss or going in to OT.
I think the takeaway here is that Duke still hasn't figured out how to close games strong, ie., once again played really well for 80% of the game, and played incredibly poorly for about 20% of the game.

[CameronDuke]

For the analytics based folks out there, with tonight’s Duke win 75-73 over Wake, Duke dropped on Kenpom from 27 overall to 30 overall. The O dropped from 30 to 36 and the D moved up slightly from 37 to 35. I thought Duke played better in spurts than the final score indicated. My only gripe is the 14 Duke turnovers and some silly fouls at times. Duke was 15-20 on the night from the line but the two front end of 1 and 1 misses at the end contributed to the final score being only a 2 point margin. Monster offensive game from Jeremy and I hope his wrist is ok. Proctor continues to emerge and Flip continues to be a double double machine. Mitchell had a quiet game but hit a big shot on the and 1 layup he hit. Lively II got some good stick backs but again was in foul trouble tonight. It’s great to be able to bring a big man off the bench like Young to give you 9, 4, and 2. Let’s hope we see Dariq playing Saturday versus UNC-CH. With the ending of the game tonight a bit sloppy for Duke, it’s easy to walk away from this one with a bit of a sour taste in your mouth but Wake made their final push with the game all but already decided. Just gotta hit front end of 1 and 1s at the end if you’re Duke.

[weezie]

...Not sure why our good FT shooters can’t finish the job at the end.

Running into picks all night takes it out of you.

[Saratoga2]

Two of my favorite plays from the game

1. Scheyer's called in bound pass long to Filipowski for the dunk

2. Filipowski's bounce pass to Young for an easy basket

[SouthernDukie]

Duke has given away 8 pt leads with less than 20 seconds before. This game was one more missed front end of a 1n1 away from being a loss or going in to OT.
I think the takeaway here is that Duke still hasn't figured out how to close games strong, ie., once again played really well for 80% of the game, and played incredibly poorly for about 20% of the game.

Unfortunately, an honest assessment has to consider that one of the, but not the only, legitimate take aways.

[wallyman]

Disappointing ending, but Wake did shoot 16-17 from the line. That will win you a lot of close games.
And thank goodness for the one they missed at the end, keeping it a two possession game.

[sagegrouse]

A two point game- geez. Crazy.

A five-point lead with 4+ seconds left and Duke on the free-throw line. Final score somewhat misleading.

[sagegrouse]

Disappointing ending, but Wake did shoot 16-17 from the line. That will win you a lot of close games.
And thank goodness for the one they missed at the end, keeping it a two possession game.

They were 16-16 until the miss at the end.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Duke was up 9 with 30 seconds left. The game was effectively over by then. Even with a series of weird plays, Duke was up 5 as the ball was in the air. I don't think the final score is an accurate reflection of how this team looked at the end of the game. It was over, some interesting stuff happened, and then it was really over.

What I think about this game is that the refs were so completely bought into the Tyree Appleby show that it turned what would have been a comfortable second half into a game that was more tense than it needed to be. Even Appleby was laughing at how often he fooled the refs. Good on Coach Scheyer for demonstrably calling them out.

From an analytics standpoint, Duke was fine with the exception of the offensive glass. They stopped getting offensive boards after the first 10 minutes or so. If they had continued to own the glass, Duke would have put up an even better offensive performance.

At any rate, it was a win. If Duke wins the next, it will be a good week.

[sagegrouse]

Duke has given away 8 pt leads with less than 20 seconds before. This game was one more missed front end of a 1n1 away from being a loss or going in to OT.
I think the takeaway here is that Duke still hasn't figured out how to close games strong, ie., once again played really well for 80% of the game, and played incredibly poorly for about 20% of the game.

Disagree, I believe. We made key baskets at the end.

Flip makes the FT, and we win by 6.

[kcduke75]

How sweet it is!!!

I see what you did there. Props.

[Skydog]

Duke has given away 8 pt leads with less than 20 seconds before. OT.

I doubt that is true. A loss like that would violate Bill James’ rule for safe leads, a rule that is ~99.99% reliable.

[CDu]

From an analytics standpoint, Duke was fine with the exception of the offensive glass. They stopped getting offensive boards after the first 10 minutes or so. If they had continued to own the glass, Duke would have put up an even better offensive performance.

I would say the turnovers were the bigger problem. We still rebounded fairly well (not as dominant as usual, but Wake is a solid defensive rebounding team). But turning it over on over 20% of our possessions is pretty bad.

[JetpackJesus]

Duke was up 9 with 30 seconds left. The game was effectively over by then. Even with a series of weird plays, Duke was up 5 as the ball was in the air. I don't think the final score is an accurate reflection of how this team looked at the end of the game. It was over, some interesting stuff happened, and then it was really over.

What I think about this game is that the refs were so completely bought into the Tyree Appleby show that it turned what would have been a comfortable second half into a game that was more tense than it needed to be. Even Appleby was laughing at how often he fooled the refs. Good on Coach Scheyer for demonstrably calling them out.

From an analytics standpoint, Duke was fine with the exception of the offensive glass. They stopped getting offensive boards after the first 10 minutes or so. If they had continued to own the glass, Duke would have put up an even better offensive performance.

At any rate, it was a win. If Duke wins the next, it will be a good week.

Adding to your first sentence, Applebee's had that nice split of Duke's D where Duke allowed him to have the mostly uncontested layup. That only happens because the game is over and the entire defense was on the 3pt line. It was a conceded basket, and rightly so. Five of Wake's points that cut it to two were the result of Duke saying, "We'll allow it." And, rightly so, again.

I would like to see the team not miss front ends, though.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I would say the turnovers were the bigger problem. We still rebounded fairly well (not as dominant as usual, but Wake is a solid defensive rebounding team). But turning it over on over 20% of our possessions is pretty bad.

I generally agree. On the other hand, there were way too many TOs called that were clearly sell jobs by Wake Forest. Proctor got called for a charge on what was an obvious blocking foul on Hildreth. Then a few moments later was tripped but was called for a travel. There were a couple of really dumb mistakes, but it wasn't as bad as the box score says on account of the obviously wrong calls from the refs.

[Kedsy]

About as close as you can get, for a game that wasn't actually close.


OFFENSE

Possessions: 69.1 (not particularly fast, but faster than Duke usually goes)
oRtg: 1.09 (1.09 adjusted; not good; equivalent of the #90 offense in the country)
eFG%: 55.6% (very good)
3pt%: 35.3% (adequate)
2pt%: 56.8% (for this year's team, excellent; our 4th-best 2pt% of the season)
%threes: 35.3% (a bit high, but not really an issue)
FT rate: 37.0% (strong)
OR%: 29.0% (weak)
TO%: 20.2% (blah, after four consecutive good games in this regard)
a/to: 0.93:1
%assisted: 48.1% (whoa; 3rd highest assist% of the season)
fast break pts: 13 (17.3% of points; pretty good)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 1.06 (0.95 adjusted; decent; equivalent of the #26 defense in the country)
eFG%: 44.5% (good)
3pt%: 29.0% (also good)
2pt%: 45.5% (pretty good)
%threes: 48.4% (way too high, but it worked out)
FT rate: 26.6% (decent)
DR%: 75.0% (good)
TO%: 13.0% (poor)
a/to: 1.11:1
%assisted: 41.7%
stl%: 5.8% (weak)
blk%: 15.2% (2pt shots) (strong)
fast break pts: 12 (16.4% of points; blah)


Our defense was pretty good; very good at everything except forcing turnovers. Our offense was pretty mediocre, though we were strong at two-point baskets and getting to the line.