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  1. #41
    Getting back to tonight’s game, I am concerned how our guards keep Appleby in front of them. Appleby blowing by our guards and dishing to their bigs or going to rack could get our bigs in foul trouble. All their guys but Hildreth shoot 36% or better from three so we cannot lay off them. I saw Appleby at BC earlier in the year and he simply took over the game. Stopping him is key. He averages 6 assists per game although he is prone to turn it over.

    I guess the spread it 9, so maybe i need to take a deep breath shouldn’t be as concerned as I feel. Vegas knows. Also, hope we aren’t looking ahead to Saturday.

  2. #42
    Duke did a pretty decent job of frustrating Appleby during the first matchup. He was just 2-8 from the field, going 1-4 from both inside and outside the arc to go along with 8 assists against 8 turnovers. Unfortunately, he repeatedly got to the FT line where he made 13 of his 14 attempts.

    There are two big things Duke needs to do in this game in my mind. The first is limiting easy baskets. Wake Forest shot very well inside the arc and especially at the rim in the first matchup. The second issue, which I think is the bigger one, is limiting fouls and FT attempts. Duke is typically very good at limiting FT attempts from opponents. Wake shot 26 FT attempts in the first game. Keeping Appleby in particular off the line is going to be a key to victory for Duke.

    I think the addition of Dereck Lively will help with both concerns. He's one of the best rim protectors in the nation and he as the lateral mobility to check the Wake Forest guards without fouling or forcing a teammate to shift and thus be put into a position to foul. Of course, Lively has had issues with staying out of foul trouble. He'll need to play smart in this one. I think Appelby and others are going to find it difficult to get to the rim when Lively is on the court and may defer to less accurate mid-range jumpers or force off-angle shots. They key here is making sure Lively is able to stay on the court.

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Southgate0809 View Post
    If Zion finished #7 in those metrics, I think that's irrefutable evidence that that the KenPom Players of the Year metrics are incredibly flawed and should never even be looked at.
    the great shame of that team was the great teammate nature of Zion, when he said "this is RJ's team". The need to massage RJ's ego really hurt that team, b/c he ended up using so much of the offensive oxygen that should have been going to the obviously better, exponentially more efficient player: Zion. It's amazing that K couldn't see that and didn't utilize that unbelievable and exceptionally obvious talent more. The fact that K did not refuse to let RJ command so much of the offensive usage cost that team dearly.

    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    Couldn’t agree more. His defense is game changing. He will never get more than maybe 4 blocks, because after that guys are afraid to shoot anywhere near him. Totally disruptive.
    He's had 5 blocks in a game already. Although i see your point, his reputation is there, and once he is present in the face of the opponent and has blocked a couple shots most of the time, like GT, they'll just stop trying to shoot around/over him.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Mount Kisco, NY
    GAME DAY!

    At this point, there really is a lot riding on every game. We must win our home games, and this is a chance to avenge a road loss and see if this team has matured as much as we hope.

    As tough as the second half of our ACC schedule is compared to the first half, we seem to be trending upward.

    -Can we string together two solid performances in a row, on both sides of the ball?
    -Can Flip continue to dominate and avoid offensive fouls/turnovers as he garners more and more attention?
    -Can Lively continue his ascent?
    -Will Roach continue to look healthy with that gimpy toe?
    -Will Proctor continue his recently sharp A/TO ration and his solid 3-point shooting
    -If all the above happens, will that allow Young and Grandison to continue to be a solid veteran bench unit that's productive on offense when they come in

    Gotta get this win...let's close January with some building momentum.

  5. #45
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    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Was Saturday's performance a harbinger of good things to come, or just an aberration against a bad team? Another data point tonight.

  6. #46
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    Lewisville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Was Saturday's performance a harbinger of good things to come, or just an aberration against a bad team? Another data point tonight.
    I'd characterize the GT game as a dominant performance, as opposed to a blowout due to ridiculously good shooting, so I'll vote "harbinger"

    But I'll certainly watch with great interest, not only for the framework you put forth, but also hoping to silence the Wake fans in my community (10 miles from WF campus).

  7. #47
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    Atlanta
    Given how we looked in the last game, I'll consider any wins by less than 40 points a disappointment for the rest of the conference season.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southgate0809 View Post
    Given how we looked in the last game, I'll consider any wins by less than 40 points a disappointment for the rest of the conference season.
    “That’s the halftime [lead] my friend!”
       

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    I'd characterize the GT game as a dominant performance, as opposed to a blowout due to ridiculously good shooting, so I'll vote "harbinger"

    But I'll certainly watch with great interest, not only for the framework you put forth, but also hoping to silence the Wake fans in my community (10 miles from WF campus).
    Yeah, I think "harbinger" is a reasonable viewpoint. There were a few positive things that were brewing going into the game: Flip becoming extremely efficient; Proctor finding his stride as a PG; Roach returning; Lively starting to play well. We just hadn't necessarily put all of those things together in the same game. It finally happened in a big way against GT.

    Now, GT's ineptitude certainly magnified our positives. But none of those individual positives were one-off occurrences; it was just the first time the team had really put it all together.

    That's not to say that we'll look great every game moving forward. But I think there's a reasonable chance that the team will start having more excellent performances rather than this being a sort of dead cat bounce.

  10. #50
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Haven’t seen this elsewhere so apologies if it’s a double post… but apparently Dariq has a chance to play tonight. Jon said he’s done on court work but needs to have been able to practice yesterday to go today.
       

  11. #51
    Seems like Dariq likely will not play tonight but could be a go for this weekend. Encouraging news.

    https://www.si.com/college/duke/bask...whitehead-wake

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by simplyluvin View Post
    Seems like Dariq likely will not play tonight but could be a go for this weekend. Encouraging news.

    https://www.si.com/college/duke/bask...whitehead-wake
    Wow. That's really encouraging news after what I feel most feared would end his season.
       

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by AGDukesky View Post
    “That’s the halftime [lead] my friend!”
    Halftime score at Cameron: Duke 58, Clemson 16 on Jan. 29, 2000, as Mike Dunleavy banks in a 40-footer at the buzzer.
       

  14. #54
    We’ll see tonight what Duke does in the aftermath of that big win against the Jackets. Wake will be a different challenge though, but having Lively available this time should make a big difference. I just hope we cut down on the turnovers and are able to knock down the threes tonight. Playing in Cameron will hopefully make the difference, Getting the win tonight will tell us alot about how far we’ve come and where we’re going!
       

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by Music man55 View Post
    I just hope we cut down on the turnovers and are able to knock down the threes tonight.
    In our last three games, Duke is shooting 40.3% from three, which is #55 in the country for that time period (#7 among Power 6 teams).

    In our last four games, Duke is only turning it over on 14.3% of its possessions, good for #36 in the country for that time period (#11 among P6 teams).

    So I think you must mean you hope Duke continues to keep turnovers low and continues to knock down threes tonight.

  16. #56
    Duke has won 23 straight games against Wake at home. The last time Duke lost 2 in a row to Wake was Feb 2008/Jan 2009. The last time Duke was swept in the season series was the 1996-1996 season. Wake actually won 9 straight in the series from 1993-1997, but Duke has utterly dominated the series since.

    If you're looking for signs that this team is turning the corner, the results on offense look good. We've had 3 straight excellent performances on that end. Some numbers that could be good trends:
    - 3 straight games shooting 39% or better from 3.
    - After 3 straight bad turnover games (NC State/BC/Pitt), Duke has now played 4 games with much better TO numbers. The last 3 have come with Roach back in the team, which makes sense.
    - After 5 straight games of shooting < 50% on 2s, Duke has made 60% of its 2s over the last two games.

    Defense is where the GT game looks more like an outlier. It came after 3 consecutive not-so-great outings. The defensive numbers have been up and down in ACC, so I don't think I see many clear trends. Duke did completely dominate GT, so hopefully there is something to build off of.


    Speaking of outliers, the game @ Wake sure looks like one in retrospect:
    - Duke only rebounded 20% of its missed shots, by far our lowest number of the season. The absence of Lively, plus Ryan Young having to log 34 minutes, may have been a big factor there.
    - Wake shot 26 free throws with a free throw rate of 49.1. That's our second highest FTR allowed all year and way, way above our average. Duke has been very good (22nd in the country) at keeping teams off the line. Is it me, or does this happen a lot at the Joel?
    - On the other side of things, we forced an unusual amount of turnovers (21%) on defense. Wake is a pretty good team at taking care of the ball (#69 in DI), yet we had our highest TO forced rate of the conference season.

    I think this is going to be a very different game than the one in Winston. In his weekly teleconference, Scheyer made a point to say "they beat the crap out of us last time" (per Brendan Marks on twitter). It is time to exact some revenge.

  17. #57
    Wake is such a scrappy team. Forbes lost his 3 best players off last year’s team, and has taken the role players from last year, added a transfer, and has his team competing in the ACC again.

    I wonder who will start on Monsanto? He can absolutely light it up from 3, and we cannot leave him. Maybe Mark Mitchell.

    We also can’t let Appleby control the game and get to the line either. Appleby, Hildreth, and Monsanto are the keys. Shut them down, and we win this game.
       

  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    In our last three games, Duke is shooting 40.3% from three, which is #55 in the country for that time period (#7 among Power 6 teams).

    In our last four games, Duke is only turning it over on 14.3% of its possessions, good for #36 in the country for that time period (#11 among P6 teams).

    So I think you must mean you hope Duke continues to keep turnovers low and continues to knock down threes tonight.
    Wow, Duke has shot over 40% from 3 in that time period and thats only good for 55th in the nation??? That seems like a crazy stat!
       

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by bshrader View Post
    Wow, Duke has shot over 40% from 3 in that time period and thats only good for 55th in the nation??? That seems like a crazy stat!
    55th in the nation over the last ~10 days. If we shot that percentage over the whole season it would be 3rd. But when you look at such a small sample of games (just 2-3 games per team), it's not hard to have a bunch of teams average over 40%.

  20. #60
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    Washington, D.C.

    Good times!

    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Halftime score at Cameron: Duke 58, Clemson 16 on Jan. 29, 2000, as Mike Dunleavy banks in a 40-footer at the buzzer.
    That was one of those games where the opponent looked terrified trying to run a half court offense.

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