MBB: Duke v Wake Forest (1/31 @ 7:00 p.m. ET ESPN) Pre-Game & In-Game Thread

[UrinalCake]

Flips defense and rebounding are way better than Paolo's, subjectively speaking. Paolo scored in much flashier ways, you would see him make plays and realize he was going to be an NBA star, but in terms of total productivity I see them as comparable. We also forget that Paolo had a stretch towards the middle of the ACC season where he struggled offensively before closing out the season strong.

[sagegrouse]

100% agreed... going into the first Wake game I had thought that Lively's defensive presence could be a major factor, but obviously we never got to test that hypothesis. Hopefully having him in the paint will allow our guards to be more aggressive on the perimeter against the three point shot.

Against Georgia Tech, whenever Lively guarded the man with the ball, there was a palpable pause in the action as the player guarded tried to figure out what to do. That's respect.

[simplyluvin]

This will probably spark some debate. I would say that Flip at his best this year is better than Paolo at his best last year. Paolo was may more consistent, so I'm not saying that Flip has had a better year overall, but his rebounding and free throw shooting make him very valuable. Apparently, he was so good against Virginia Tech that it led to an attempted assassination, er, I mean, an inadvertent celebratory fist pump.

Would be a fun and interesting debate. Their Ortg and Drtg are comparable so far. Flip has the edge in rebounding and FT shooting like you say. Is he #1 pick material? Well, let's hope he plays himself into that level. Is he definitely one of the 3 to 5 best players in the country like Paolo was last year? Not yet, but Flip is trending really well lately and he's in the top 25 conversation for now.

[Southgate0809]

Would be a fun and interesting debate. Their Ortg and Drtg are comparable so far. Flip has the edge in rebounding and FT shooting like you say. Is he #1 pick material? Well, let's hope he plays himself into that level. Is he definitely one of the 3 to 5 best players in the country like Paolo was last year? Not yet, but Flip is trending really well lately and he's in the top 25 conversation for now.

Yeah, I wasn't considering season-long stats or draft potential. Just who is better at their best. Maybe our stat gurus could find the best statistical performances from each player.

[Kedsy]

Yeah, I wasn't considering season-long stats or draft potential. Just who is better at their best. Maybe our stat gurus could find the best statistical performances from each player.

Torvik tracks game-by-game BPM. Here are each player's best five BPM performances:

Paolo (39 games): 20.5, 16.5, 16.0, 13.7, 12.9

Flip (21 games): 20.3, 20.2, 19.3, 18.1, 16.4

[DavidBenAkiva]

The fact that Filipowski's stats compare to Banchero's in any way is a total shock to me. Coming into the season, I didn't expect him to be the leading scorer on the team. He's playing at an All-ACC 1st team level. He was just named ACC Freshman of the Week yet again, the 7th time he has won that award. That ties Marvin Bagley III for 6th most in ACC history.

[CDu]

Torvik tracks game-by-game BPM. Here are each player's best five BPM performances:

Paolo (39 games): 20.5, 16.5, 16.0, 13.7, 12.9

Flip (21 games): 20.3, 20.2, 19.3, 18.1, 16.4

Yeah, this seems to jive well. Very minor quibble but Banchero also had a 19.3 BPM vs Citadel, a 15.6 against Kentucky, and a 14.2 against SCSU. So his best 5-game stretch looks like this: 20.5, 19.3, 16.5, 16.0, 15.6.

That said, it shows the general idea that Flip has played just a little bit better than Banchero to this point. Both his average BPM being a point higher and his having achieved 5 games with 16+ BPM (and 3 games at 19+) in just over half the time it took Banchero to achieve 5 games with 15+ BPM and 2 games with 19+.

[Kedsy]

Yeah, this seems to jive well. Very minor quibble but Banchero also had a 19.3 BPM vs Citadel, a 15.6 against Kentucky, and a 14.2 against SCSU. So his best 5-game stretch looks like this: 20.5, 19.3, 16.5, 16.0, 15.6.

Yeah, not sure how I missed reviewing the first 10 games of last season, but obviously you're right.

[cato]

The fact that Filipowski's stats compare to Banchero's in any way is a total shock to me. Coming into the season, I didn't expect him to be the leading scorer on the team. He's playing at an All-ACC 1st team level. He was just named ACC Freshman of the Week yet again, the 7th time he has won that award. That ties Marvin Bagley III for 6th most in ACC history.

It’s the opposite of the Horvath syndrome. Instead of preseason rumors unrealistically raising expectations, those rumors unrealistically crushed expectations.

It’s great to see and I hope he continues his trajectory.

[CDu]

The fact that Filipowski's stats compare to Banchero's in any way is a total shock to me. Coming into the season, I didn't expect him to be the leading scorer on the team. He's playing at an All-ACC 1st team level. He was just named ACC Freshman of the Week yet again, the 7th time he has won that award. That ties Marvin Bagley III for 6th most in ACC history.

Yeah, coming into the season, the general consensus (and confirmed by the talking heads during games) was that Flip was struggling. And yet, here he is putting up better numbers than the guy who was a 1st Team All-ACC and 2nd Team All-American last year.

In the summer, we on DBR talked about the team having somewhat of a similar look to the 2022 team position by position. Not identical mind you, but pretty similar. The concern was that Flip wasn't going to be able to be a true proxy for Banchero. And yet, he's outperforming (slightly) Banchero so far. It's the other two elite prospects who haven't managed to hold up their end of the comps. Lively has looked more like freshman year Williams rather than sophomore year Williams (again, not exactly the same, but overall level of play is similar). And Whitehead hasn't looked at all like Wendell Moore (let alone making up for the expected difference between Flip and Banchero). If anything, I'd say he's looked a bit more like AJ Griffin than anyone else (at least in ACC play).

Fortunately, Proctor has recently started playing a better PG than Keels did, so maybe we can get away with Whitehead being more of an AJ Griffin type than a Wendell Moore type. But we need to see the Lively from two of the last three games more consistently for the team to look like the 2022 team. There's still hope though, and Lively's last 3 games give a window into the possible avenue to that level.

[dlmzzz]

As a couple of side comments, right now Flip is #10 in the KenPom Player of the Year metrics (1.246). Paulo finished #7 (1.331). For context, Tshiebwe was the highest rated player last year at 1.788, and Edey is first this year with 2.228 (only Kaminsky at Wisconsin and Russdiculous at Louisville have ever ended a year with a higher rating under the current KPOY point system). Flip is pretty much a lock to be ACC rookie of the year, and is widely considered the second best freshman in the country (behind Brandon Miller at Alabama).

Other Duke players who have finished in the top 10 include:
Nolan Smith (#4, 2011)
Mason Plumlee (#5, 2013)
Jabari Parker (#5, 2014)
Jahlil Okafor (#2, 2015)
Marvin Bagley (#3, 2018)
RJ Barrett (#6, 2019)
Zion Williamson (#7, 2019)
Vernon Carey (#7, 2020)

I would guess that our standards for evaluating star players are incredibly high.

[Edouble]

Would be a fun and interesting debate. Their Ortg and Drtg are comparable so far. Flip has the edge in rebounding and FT shooting like you say. Is he #1 pick material? Well, let's hope he plays himself into that level. Is he definitely one of the 3 to 5 best players in the country like Paolo was last year? Not yet, but Flip is trending really well lately and he's in the top 25 conversation for now.

FWIW, Paolo was Consensus 2nd Team All American, winding up on the USBWA and NABC 2nd Team All American, and AP and Sporting News 3rd Team All American.

Maybe Top 10 would be a more reasonable argument.

[Ian]

Yeah, this seems to jive well. Very minor quibble but Banchero also had a 19.3 BPM vs Citadel, a 15.6 against Kentucky, and a 14.2 against SCSU. So his best 5-game stretch looks like this: 20.5, 19.3, 16.5, 16.0, 15.6.

That said, it shows the general idea that Flip has played just a little bit better than Banchero to this point. Both his average BPM being a point higher and his having achieved 5 games with 16+ BPM (and 3 games at 19+) in just over half the time it took Banchero to achieve 5 games with 15+ BPM and 2 games with 19+.

I think had Banchero played on this year's team he would have put up better numbers.
Flip has to do more offensively because his teammates are much worse offensively compared to last year. There are no shooters like Griffin or wings like Moore on this year's team.

Also I'm not sure BPM matters in draft stock anyway. Tshibwe dominated last year and didn't even declare, because he knew he was not on any NBA's teams 1st round radar.

[Southgate0809]

As a couple of side comments, right now Flip is #10 in the KenPom Player of the Year metrics (1.246). Paulo finished #7 (1.331). For context, Tshiebwe was the highest rated player last year at 1.788, and Edey is first this year with 2.228 (only Kaminsky at Wisconsin and Russdiculous at Louisville have ever ended a year with a higher rating under the current KPOY point system). Flip is pretty much a lock to be ACC rookie of the year, and is widely considered the second best freshman in the country (behind Brandon Miller at Alabama).

Other Duke players who have finished in the top 10 include:
Nolan Smith (#4, 2011)
Mason Plumlee (#5, 2013)
Jabari Parker (#5, 2014)
Jahlil Okafor (#2, 2015)
Marvin Bagley (#3, 2018)
RJ Barrett (#6, 2019)
Zion Williamson (#7, 2019)
Vernon Carey (#7, 2020)

I would guess that our standards for evaluating star players are incredibly high.

If Zion finished #7 in those metrics, I think that's irrefutable evidence that that the KenPom Players of the Year metrics are incredibly flawed and should never even be looked at.

[CDu]

I think had Banchero played on this year's team he would have put up better numbers.
Flip has to do more offensively because his teammates are much worse offensively compared to last year. There are no shooters like Griffin or wings like Moore on this year's team.

Also I'm not sure BPM matters in draft stock anyway. Tshibwe dominated last year and didn't even declare, because he knew he was not on any NBA's teams 1st round radar.

Nobody is saying Flip will be drafted like Banchero was, nor is anyone suggesting that Flip is a comparable NBA prospect. The discussion is simply about college performance.

And I don’t think the argument that Flip is asked to do more than Banchero was is a good explanation for why Flip has a higher BPM. Efficiency is part of the calculation, and presumably the better your teammates the easier it is to be efficient. But beyond that, Flip is only averaging a couple more shots per 100 possessions (so like 1.2 more shots per game) than Banchero. So it isn’t like he is winning on volume.

The real reason that Flip has the edge is because he is about 50% better in rebound rate, and 30% better in steal and block rate.

To be clear: Banchero is the better prospect. But at the college level, Flip has played slightly better.

[dlmzzz]

If Zion finished #7 in those metrics, I think that's irrefutable evidence that that the KenPom Players of the Year metrics are incredibly flawed and should never even be looked at.

Oh come on. Aren't you even SLIGHTLY curious how RJ rigged it so he would finish higher?

[SkyBrickey]

If Proctor can operate at the level of 8 assists and 0 TOs we will be in excellent shape.



Except that Lively scored 9 points on 4-6 shooting, Young 10 points on 5-6 shooting, so that offense is a wash.

I was at the game, and I don't know if it is because Lively turned a corner, or because it was so much more obvious live, but Lively's defense is next level. His feet have Chris Duhon's lateral quickness. He looks capable of guarding 1-5. I am very excited for the future of this team, if Lively is a double double kind of guy + brings that defensive intensity/ability.

Couldn’t agree more. His defense is game changing. He will never get more than maybe 4 blocks, because after that guys are afraid to shoot anywhere near him. Totally disruptive.

[SkyBrickey]

I think Flip of the last 5 games is playing as well or better that Paolo last year. He’s playing so confidently. He’s cut down on the turnovers. He’s shooting it well. If he continues to play at this level, isn’t he first team all-ACC and a top 5 pick?

If I’m a GM looking at his shooting form and FT%, I think projects as a better long range threat than Paolo and he’s definitely a better defender.

[Kedsy]

He will never get more than maybe 4 blocks...

Dereck Lively has already had two games with five blocks this season.

[Skydog]

If Zion finished #7 in those metrics, I think that's irrefutable evidence that that the KenPom Players of the Year metrics are incredibly flawed and should never even be looked at.

Kenpom’s POY algorithm is designed to somewhat mirror how POY’s are traditionally selected. It is primarily a measure of how much that player improves his team on both offense and defense with - like the voters in more traditional POY awards- some consideration given to how well the team does. There was tough competition Zion’s year from Texas Techs Jarrett Culver, Michigan State’s Cassius Winston and Gonzaga’s Brandon Clarke. Zion was clearly the most efficient offensive player of that group but the others had better defensive metrics. Plus TT & MSU went farther in the tourney.
(To show how much KP’s POY isn’t just about offense - Ja Morant didn’t even make the top 10!)