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  1. #1

    MBB: Duke v Wake Forest (1/31 @ 7:00 p.m. ET ESPN) Pre-Game & In-Game Thread

    Duke has a big week. Kicking things off is a home game against the Demon Deacons of Wake Forest. Duke lost in Winston-Salem at the end of December, 70-81. The team was without Dereck Lively II and Dariq Whitehead in that contest, who were both suffering from a non-COVID illness. Lively has come on a bit lately while Whitehead might miss this rematch due to his lower leg injury suffered during the first half of the game at Virginia Tech.

    A lot has changed for Duke since December 20th. The team suffered a 24-point loss in Raleigh to the Wolfpack and then looked shaky in road contests at BC, Clemson, and VT, winning one of those three road affairs. Duke is coming off a dominating 43-point win over Georgia Tech on Saturday. Has Duke turned a corner?

    The Blue Devils are undefeated at home so far this year. In a reversal from last season, the team has looked solid at home but shaky on the road. Will Duke continue the trend of playing better at home?

    Duke is solidly an NCAA Tournament team at the moment, appearing as a 6-seed in the latest BracketMatrix update. A loss against Wake Forest probably won't put Duke on the bubble. A win won't move Duke up that much, either, but it will keep Duke in the hunt for a top-4 seed and in the mix for a bye in the ACC Tournament. The biggest factor in this game might be revenge. Duke never looked together in Winston-Salem. They have shown signs of high-quality team play of late. Will that trend continue on Tuesday night?

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Duke has a big week. Kicking things off is a home game against the Demon Deacons of Wake Forest. Duke lost in Winston-Salem at the end of December, 70-81. The team was without Dereck Lively II and Dariq Whitehead in that contest, who were both suffering from a non-COVID illness. Lively has come on a bit lately while Whitehead might miss this rematch due to his lower leg injury suffered during the first half of the game at Virginia Tech.
    A lot has changed for Duke since December 20th. The team suffered a 24-point loss in Raleigh to the Wolfpack and then looked shaky in road contests at BC, Clemson, and VT, winning one of those three road affairs. Duke is coming off a dominating 43-point win over Georgia Tech on Saturday. Has Duke turned a corner?
    The Blue Devils are undefeated at home so far this year. In a reversal from last season, the team has looked solid at home but shaky on the road. Will Duke continue the trend of playing better at home?
    Duke is solidly an NCAA Tournament team at the moment, appearing as a 6-seed in the latest BracketMatrix update. A loss against Wake Forest probably won't put Duke on the bubble. A win won't move Duke up that much, either, but it will keep Duke in the hunt for a top-4 seed and in the mix for a bye in the ACC Tournament. The biggest factor in this game might be revenge. Duke never looked together in Winston-Salem. They have shown signs of high-quality team play of late. Will that trend continue on Tuesday night?
    I'm betting that the presence of Lively by itself will be a big factor in the re-match. Even if Dariq is unable to go Duke can play Grandison, Blakes, and Schutt as needed to fill that Wing/SG slot, but Lively gives Duke a defensive presence (and 3pt threat!!!) that was lacking in Round 1. Factors like being the first ACC road game, and a game after a 10-day break for holidays won't be in play this time around either.
    Go Duke!

  3. #3
    Feels like the current starting 5 will be what we ride for the rest of the season.

    Lively and Proctor both had their best games against GaTech and Roach seems pretty comfortable in the scoring guard role.

    Young, Whitehead (when healthy), Grandison and Blakes is a pretty deep bench.

    Here's hoping their play carries over and we get some revenge against Wake.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelion View Post
    Feels like the current starting 5 will be what we ride for the rest of the season.

    Lively and Proctor both had their best games against GaTech and Roach seems pretty comfortable in the scoring guard role.

    Young, Whitehead (when healthy), Grandison and Blakes is a pretty deep bench.

    Here's hoping their play carries over and we get some revenge against Wake.
    Itís hard to know if weíve turned a corner given GT was an inferior opponent, but itís possible we are forming our identity, especially on the offensive side. Like you say, Roach may be coming into the veteran 2-guard role a la Quinn Cook. Proctor had a really good playmaking game with 8 ast and no turnovers; if he can continue such steady PG play we might be in good shape. Flip is becoming this yearís Paolo, and maybe heís already there. The Lively and Young rotation should continue to be largely offense for defense but otherwise effective. Livelyís defense is making a difference. The question is, can we get more points from our bench, especially Grandison?

    Would love for us to further our growth and team identity against Wake before heading into a tough stretch of conference games. Iím excited to see where we go.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by simplyluvin View Post
    The question is, can we get more points from our bench, especially Grandison?
    We got 29 points from our bench against Georgia Tech, including 10 each from Young and Grandison. Not sure how many more bench points we can expect, especially while Whitehead is out.

  6. #6
    Iíll be interested to see Dukeís defensive assignments. Hildreth was especially effective in the game at Wake, and I donít remember who guarded him. Iíd think Mitchell and Grandison would get this assignment, yes? I hope whoever guards Monsanto does not, even once, leave him to double down, as any duo of Filipowski, Lively, and Young should do an acceptable job against Wakeís bigs.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    Iíll be interested to see Dukeís defensive assignments. Hildreth was especially effective in the game at Wake, and I donít remember who guarded him. Iíd think Mitchell and Grandison would get this assignment, yes? I hope whoever guards Monsanto does not, even once, leave him to double down, as any duo of Filipowski, Lively, and Young should do an acceptable job against Wakeís bigs.
    After watching DJ Burns abuse the Wake bigs over...and over...and over...and over in the 2nd half Saturday, I wonder if Young sees even more touches in this one.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by simplyluvin View Post
    Itís hard to know if weíve turned a corner given GT was an inferior opponent, but itís possible we are forming our identity, especially on the offensive side. Like you say, Roach may be coming into the veteran 2-guard role a la Quinn Cook. Proctor had a really good playmaking game with 8 ast and no turnovers; if he can continue such steady PG play we might be in good shape.
    If Proctor can operate at the level of 8 assists and 0 TOs we will be in excellent shape.

    Quote Originally Posted by simplyluvin View Post
    Flip is becoming this yearís Paolo, and maybe heís already there. The Lively and Young rotation should continue to be largely offense for defense but otherwise effective. Livelyís defense is making a difference. The question is, can we get more points from our bench, especially Grandison?

    Would love for us to further our growth and team identity against Wake before heading into a tough stretch of conference games. Iím excited to see where we go.
    Except that Lively scored 9 points on 4-6 shooting, Young 10 points on 5-6 shooting, so that offense is a wash.

    I was at the game, and I don't know if it is because Lively turned a corner, or because it was so much more obvious live, but Lively's defense is next level. His feet have Chris Duhon's lateral quickness. He looks capable of guarding 1-5. I am very excited for the future of this team, if Lively is a double double kind of guy + brings that defensive intensity/ability.
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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    I'm betting that the presence of Lively by itself will be a big factor in the re-match. Even if Dariq is unable to go Duke can play Grandison, Blakes, and Schutt as needed to fill that Wing/SG slot, but Lively gives Duke a defensive presence (and 3pt threat!!!) that was lacking in Round 1. Factors like being the first ACC road game, and a game after a 10-day break for holidays won't be in play this time around either.
    Go Duke!
    100% agreed... going into the first Wake game I had thought that Lively's defensive presence could be a major factor, but obviously we never got to test that hypothesis. Hopefully having him in the paint will allow our guards to be more aggressive on the perimeter against the three point shot.
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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edouble View Post
    If Proctor can operate at the level of 8 assists and 0 TOs we will be in excellent shape.



    Except that Lively scored 9 points on 4-6 shooting, Young 10 points on 5-6 shooting, so that offense is a wash.

    I was at the game, and I don't know if it is because Lively turned a corner, or because it was so much more obvious live, but Lively's defense is next level. His feet have Chris Duhon's lateral quickness. He looks capable of guarding 1-5. I am very excited for the future of this team, if Lively is a double double kind of guy + brings that defensive intensity/ability.
    I too am very excited about the future of this team...the sad thing in the current era of basketball is that the future is only 12-19 more games and the team has already played 21.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by simplyluvin View Post
    Itís hard to know if weíve turned a corner given GT was an inferior opponent, but itís possible we are forming our identity, especially on the offensive side. Like you say, Roach may be coming into the veteran 2-guard role a la Quinn Cook. Proctor had a really good playmaking game with 8 ast and no turnovers; if he can continue such steady PG play we might be in good shape. Flip is becoming this yearís Paolo, and maybe heís already there. The Lively and Young rotation should continue to be largely offense for defense but otherwise effective. Livelyís defense is making a difference. The question is, can we get more points from our bench, especially Grandison?

    Would love for us to further our growth and team identity against Wake before heading into a tough stretch of conference games. Iím excited to see where we go.
    This will probably spark some debate. I would say that Flip at his best this year is better than Paolo at his best last year. Paolo was may more consistent, so I'm not saying that Flip has had a better year overall, but his rebounding and free throw shooting make him very valuable. Apparently, he was so good against Virginia Tech that it led to an attempted assassination, er, I mean, an inadvertent celebratory fist pump.
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  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Southgate0809 View Post
    This will probably spark some debate. I would say that Flip at his best this year is better than Paolo at his best last year. Paolo was may more consistent, so I'm not saying that Flip has had a better year overall, but his rebounding and free throw shooting make him very valuable. Apparently, he was so good against Virginia Tech that it led to an attempted assassination, er, I mean, an inadvertent celebratory fist pump.
    I would suggest another look at Paolo from last year. He was an amazing offensive threat and was not shy about taking control when we needed a basket. The only reason he wasn't even more celebrated is that we were only a year removed from Zion.

    Flip is great. I'm really pleased with his skillet and attitude. But he is in no danger of becoming a top draft pick.
       

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I would suggest another look at Paolo from last year. He was an amazing offensive threat and was not shy about taking control when we needed a basket. The only reason he wasn't even more celebrated is that we were only a year removed from Zion.

    Flip is great. I'm really pleased with his skillet and attitude. But he is in no danger of becoming a top draft pick.
    Here's a great question for debate, IMO...who is/was more valuable to their respective teams? Paolo or Flip?

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by bshrader View Post
    Here's a great question for debate, IMO...who is/was more valuable to their respective teams? Paolo or Flip?
    I mean, what does that really tell us? How weak the teams around the two players are/were?

    If you ask me whether I would prefer to have Flip on this team of the leading candidate for NBA Rookie of the Year, I'm taking Paolo and I suspect most would.
       

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I mean, what does that really tell us? How weak the teams around the two players are/were?

    If you ask me whether I would prefer to have Flip on this team of the leading candidate for NBA Rookie of the Year, I'm taking Paolo and I suspect most would.
    But that isnt the question. The question is which player is more valuable to their team? Where would last year's team have been without Paolo? Where would this year's team be, so far, without Flip?

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Flip is great. I'm really pleased with his skillet and attitude.
    You're pleased with Flip's skillet or the skillet flip?

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  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    You're pleased with Flip's skillet or the skillet flip?

    I've been trying so hard to think what the perfect NIL deal would be for him to stick around for another year. It's going to be some sort of Rachel Ray cookware set where he shows you how to Flip the skillet properly.
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  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I would suggest another look at Paolo from last year. He was an amazing offensive threat and was not shy about taking control when we needed a basket. The only reason he wasn't even more celebrated is that we were only a year removed from Zion.

    Flip is great. I'm really pleased with his skillet and attitude. But he is in no danger of becoming a top draft pick.
    If you look at them, not as potential pros but as college players, they're pretty comparable:

    Code:
    Player	Pts/40	oRating	dRating	PER	eFG	trueSh%	FTR	OR%	DR%	Asst%	stl%	blk%	TO%	usg%	ws/40	OBPM	DBPM	BPM
    KF	22.2	110.6	89.7	25.3	48.2	54.0	43.1	11.2	26.6	10.5	2.6	3.4	14.5	30.0	0.212	5.4	3.2	8.5
    PB	20.9	113.8	98.1	24.2	52.0	55.7	36.6	6.4	19.1	17.5	1.9	2.7	13.3	27.5	0.191	5.4	2.3	7.7
    Paolo was a much better passer and slightly better shooter. Flip is a much better rebounder (he's actually on track to have the best defensive rebounding percentage in Duke history, or at least since 1987 when they started tracking defensive rebounds) and a much better defender (with the caveat that defensive stats are somewhat unreliable).

    Which begs a player by player comparison with last year's team, with a look toward the postseason.

    Banchero/Filipowski
    Williams/Lively
    2022 Roach/2023 Roach
    Keels/Proctor
    Moore/Whitehead
    Griffin/Mitchell
    John/Young
    Baker/Grandison
    B Jones/Blakes

    The bottom of the rotation is clearly better this season. If Paolo and Flip are comparable college players (and I believe they are) and if Lively can consistently play to his potential (e.g., the Miami and Ga Tech games; not talking about pro potential), the major differences are (a) Griffin's offense (especially shooting) vs. Mitchell's defense; (b) John's defense vs. Young's offense; and most importantly, (c) Moore vs. Whitehead. Before the season, we thought Dariq would be able to bring much of the same advantages as Wendell did. So far, that hasn't been remotely true. But if Dariq comes back and suddenly "gets it," I think this year's team will be primed for a post-season run. If we're a #4 to #7 seed, nobody will want to face us.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southgate0809 View Post
    I've been trying so hard to think what the perfect NIL deal would be for him to stick around for another year. It's going to be some sort of Rachel Ray cookware set where he shows you how to Flip the skillet properly.
    IHOP

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    If you look at them, not as potential pros but as college players, they're pretty comparable:

    Code:
    Player	Pts/40	oRating	dRating	PER	eFG	trueSh%	FTR	OR%	DR%	Asst%	stl%	blk%	TO%	usg%	ws/40	OBPM	DBPM	BPM
    KF	22.2	110.6	89.7	25.3	48.2	54.0	43.1	11.2	26.6	10.5	2.6	3.4	14.5	30.0	0.212	5.4	3.2	8.5
    PB	20.9	113.8	98.1	24.2	52.0	55.7	36.6	6.4	19.1	17.5	1.9	2.7	13.3	27.5	0.191	5.4	2.3	7.7
    Paolo was a much better passer and slightly better shooter. Flip is a much better rebounder (he's actually on track to have the best defensive rebounding percentage in Duke history, or at least since 1987 when they started tracking defensive rebounds) and a much better defender (with the caveat that defensive stats are somewhat unreliable).

    Which begs a player by player comparison with last year's team, with a look toward the postseason.

    Banchero/Filipowski
    Williams/Lively
    2022 Roach/2023 Roach
    Keels/Proctor
    Moore/Whitehead
    Griffin/Mitchell
    John/Young
    Baker/Grandison
    B Jones/Blakes

    The bottom of the rotation is clearly better this season. If Paolo and Flip are comparable college players (and I believe they are) and if Lively can consistently play to his potential (e.g., the Miami and Ga Tech games; not talking about pro potential), the major differences are (a) Griffin's offense (especially shooting) vs. Mitchell's defense; (b) John's defense vs. Young's offense; and most importantly, (c) Moore vs. Whitehead. Before the season, we thought Dariq would be able to bring much of the same advantages as Wendell did. So far, that hasn't been remotely true. But if Dariq comes back and suddenly "gets it," I think this year's team will be primed for a post-season run. If we're a #4 to #7 seed, nobody will want to face us.
    fascinating numbers, which i would argue show that Flip is slightly "better" or more valuable. I guess it depends on whether you value defense or offense more. Regardless, you're right to point out that one should not confuse his success in the NBA with his collegiate performance.
    As for the player-player comparisons, i bolded who i thought was the better player, and those unhighlighted i thought were equal or at least the 2023 player still has enough time to grow into becoming a more valuable player. I feel like Banchero vs Flip is kinduva wash at the moment, but if Flip can bring that 3FG% up he might surpass PB, in terms of value to his Duke team. Roach has been essentially the same player from last year to this year, he scores a little more but is a little less efficient at it. Although Keels scored more and was a solid defender, perhaps better than Proctor, he was also a low efficiency shooter and not much of a passer. Proctor's shooting efficiency has been worse that Keels' was, although he is improving as of late and maybe end up being roughly equivalent. Keels was the more physically imposing defender and i doubt that Proctor will surpass my impression of Keels as a defender, but Proctor is already by far a much better passer than Keels was, and is only getting better. AJ Griffin was capable of much bigger scoring nights than Mitchell has shown so far, but Mitchell hasn't been bad at that. Mitchell is a lightyears better defender than AJ was though, so kinduva a wash, but if MM can channel that meanness and drive to and finish at the rim with more frequency he might surpass AJ.
    So while some of the starters were better/more valuable on last year's team, the role players on this year's team are better than the role players on last year's team. I might still be high on the beatdown delivered to GT, but if that game really was an inflection point for this team then i'm pretty excited about what this team can accomplish this year.

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