Where does the team go from here? A look into recent results for clues...

[sagegrouse]

I definitely think +/- is meaningless, even over a full season. But azzefkram wasn't interested in discussing BPM (which clearly favors Young), so I was trying to be polite and use a framework that azzefkram might acknowledge. But I would absolutely prefer to be talking about things like BPM, and in fact that's where I started in this discussion a few steps before you jumped in.



I completely agree. I'm not saying your theory is wrong. I'm just saying there aren't data to support it. There are two separate discussions going on: (1) has the team been more successful on the floor with Young vs Lively? And (2) has that story flipped recently? The overwhelming consistent answer to (1) is "yes." I was using BPM to say that, and then switched to +/- begrudgingly to show that even the +/- (which are meaningless) don't support the idea that the team plays better with Lively in. That's what azzefkram and I were discussing.

You changed the discussion to talk about the second question. I don't think we have enough information to assess the second question.



I'm saying that if one is going to use +/- at all, then season-long is the only +/- stat that is even remotely close to worthwhile. As I said above, I'd much rather be talking about this using BPM. I definitely believe that even season-long +/- is pretty worthless, but way less worthless than a single-game +/-. But the participants in the discussion refused to consider BPM, so I was taking the only other track possible.

And I am not saying your theory is wrong. I'm saying that we don't have any sufficient evidence to assess it at this point. It's certainly possible that your theory is right. I just wouldn't say the +/- is a strong argument for it, nor would I say his efficiency is a strong argument for it (at least not yet; that could eventually prove the case).

CDu and Kedsy, it appears, are in "violent agreement."

[dm9e24]

I just wish Lively were playing anywhere near Mark William's sophomore year ( he was top 20, Lively was #1 coming in to Duke) and Ryan was the back up, playing 10-12 minutes a game, and producing like he was before other coaches figured him out. Ryan seems to be more well rounded than Theo was last year and less foul prone. That would be a killer combo. But it looks like it will take a couple of more years for Derrick to get to Mark's sophomore year, no matter how many more minutes Jon plays him. It would seem to me that minutes are earned and my amateur eyes and non metric brain doesn't see that Lively has earned more minutes than Ryan. Derrick just doesn't show any consistency. Unfortunately, those years it will take for Derrick to get to that next level will not be in a Duke uniform. Which also makes me yearn for the good old days when you could watch a freshman class like the one we have this year develop into really good sophomores. Which may not benefit the kids and their nba dreams in the short term, but would certainly benefit Duke basketball...and Jon.

[DukieInBrasil]

Perhaps this could become the team's theme song for this season:

"You're gonna lively up yourself (Lively up yourself)
And don't say: "No"
You lively up yourself (Lively up yourself)
Big daddy said so, y'all
You lively up yourself (Lively up yourself)
And don't be no drag
You lively up yourself (Lively up yourself)
'Cause reggae is another bag"

--- Bob Marley and the Wailers, track 1 from African Herbsman

Good ol' Bob. The original release was from the extemely daring and defiant anti-pop reggae album Natty Dread, Bob's first release not as The Wailers, ie., without Bunny and Peter. This incarnation conquered the world as Bob Marley & The Wailers.

[dlmzzz]

How possible is it to calculate BPM over the past four games? (That's when I noticed teams doubling Ryan more.) I've never tried to calculate that stat myself.

Per Torvik, I see Ryan's offensive BPM in the last four games were: 4.1, 7.3, -10.3, and 2.1; Not sure if averaging makes any sense, but that's an average of 0.8 (obviously skewed by the bad performance in the Miami game).

Ryan's defensive BPM in those games were: -3.0, 6.4, 5.8, 1.7; an average of 2.7. Does that suggest his defensive contributions on average outweighed his offensive contributions? (honest question) If so, I may have my doubts about the value of this stat (at least on the defensive side).

Dereck's oBPM in the last 4 games: -4.5, 1.8, 1.3, -0.1; an average of -.4.

Dereck's dBPM in the last 4 games: 6.6, 11.1, 3.2, -2.4; an average of 4.6.


Overall BPM:

Ryan: 1.1, 13.6, -4.5, 3.8; average 3.5

Dereck: 2.0, 12.8, 4.5, -2.6; average 4.2


Obviously a small sample, but any theory about recent games would necessarily involve a small sample.

My interpretation of these stats is very different. I read it as showing that neither Ryan nor Lively are performing consistently right now. If that's the case, then who plays more in a game should depend purely on how the game is going. It's bacon one day, and eggs the next. It'd be nice to get a full breakfast, but I wouldn't count on it.