Where does the team go from here? A look into recent results for clues...

[azzefkram]

And in aggregate, the team is better overall with Young than with Lively.

All the statistical evidence we have says definitively that Young has played better than Lively. And it isn't close.

All the statistical evidence we have does a poor job measuring defensive impact. It's not remotely shocking that an all-O, no-D player would show up better than an all-D, no-O player. All the team evidence we have shows a team playing worse the more Ryan plays.

[lotusland]

Proctor has a good stroke and he’s and 87% free throw shooter. He needs to keep shooting it especially when he’s unguarded. Ryan developed footwork because he’s a below the rim player. Lively doesn’t require the same space. He needs to be stronger physically and stronger with the ball. With his length he needs to be able get position near the restricted area, catch the ball, turn and go up strong without bringing the ball down. Easier said than done but he shouldn’t worry about advanced footwork or, God forbid, dribbling, until he’s mastered that.
Grandison shoots from his chest. He’s not the first shooter to have a weird form but it limits how many good shots he can get off. Duke has been mixing zone with their m2m. VT hit a couple 3s against our zone, most notably Basille’s and one where Flip got caught out of position. We’re not a great shooting team but we’re also not a great ball handling and passing team. Our guards can’t stop shooting open 3s and shrink the court for their defense. Take good shots, limit turnovers and rebound. We don’t have anyone with Barrett or Zion’s ability to drive and score in the paint but at least we don’t have Jack, Goldwire and Tre standing on the perimeter afraid to shoot.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Proctor has a good stroke and he’s and 87% free throw shooter. He needs to keep shooting it especially when he’s unguarded. Ryan developed footwork because he’s a below the rim player. Lively doesn’t require the same space. He needs to be stronger physically and stronger with the ball. With his length he needs to be able get position near the restricted area, catch the ball, turn and go up strong without bringing the ball down. Easier said than done but he shouldn’t worry about advanced footwork or, God forbid, dribbling, until he’s mastered that.
Grandison shoots from his chest. He’s not the first shooter to have a weird form but it limits how many good shots he can get off. Duke has been mixing zone with their m2m. VT hit a couple 3s against our zone, most notably Basille’s and one where Flip got caught out of position. We’re not a great shooting team but we’re also not a great ball handling and passing team. Our guards can’t stop shooting open 3s and shrink the court for their defense. Take good shots, limit turnovers and rebound. We don’t have anyone with Barrett or Zion’s ability to drive and score in the paint but at least we don’t have Jack, Goldwire and Tre standing on the perimeter afraid to shoot.

I think we focus too much on form rather than results. In the three years prior (2 and Illinois and 1 at Holy Cross), Grandison shot 36.5%, 41.5%, and 40.5% on 5.7, 1.4, and 4.5 3FG per game. He is a proven 3pt shooter. Is he as talented as Cattoor? Nope. But he's arguably the best 3pt shooter on the team. He's in a mini-slump, but he's got the pedigree.

Roach has never, ever been an average 3pt shooter. Three seasons at Duke and basically the same 3pt results (low 30s % all three years). Proctor may have good form, may have great FT%, but that isn't translating to good 3pt shooting. He's the anti-Justise Winslow (poor FT%, really good 3pt FG%).

Not sure what's preventing Grandison from getting on the floor, but he/coaching staff need to focus on that.

[CDu]

All the statistical evidence we have does a poor job measuring defensive impact. It's not remotely shocking that an all-O, no-D player would show up better than an all-D, no-O player. All the team evidence we have shows a team playing worse the more Ryan plays.

We don’t have evidence that the team plays worse the more Young plays. In fact we have the opposite info.

[Kedsy]

Proctor may have good form, may have great FT%, but that isn't translating to good 3pt shooting.

At this point in 2016, freshman Luke Kennard was shooting 29.5% from three (on 4.8 three-attempts per game). Over the last 11 games of the regular season, he shot 40% from three (4.5 3attpg), before slumping again in the post-season. So who knows what Proctor's form might translate into moving forward?

[Ian]

Based on stats I've seen, since the December break there have been only 4 players who when they are on the court, the teams as a whole posts better +/- compared to when they are off the floor.

They are: Proctor, Flip, Young and Lively.


So now you know why Jon Scheyer likes to have 2 of the 3 PF/C on the floor a lot. They are the only ones producing.

That said, he needs to find a way to get Flip 5 more minutes of rest per game so he's not totally gassed at the end. Him being exhausted at the end of games is a big part of why Duke has problems closing out games.

[azzefkram]

We don’t have evidence that the team plays worse the more Young plays. In fact we have the opposite info.

In all seriousness, what am I missing?

Prior to Wake, Duke's AdjOE was 111.1 and its AdjDE 89.7. Since Wake, Duke's AdjOE is 108.5 and its AdjDE is 100.9.

Prior to Wake, Duke was 10-2. Yes, there were some patsies in there, but Kansas, Xavier, Purdue and Ohio State are better teams than any we have played since. Since Wake, Duke has gone 4-4 against not exactly a gauntlet.

I don't mean to be difficult, but that doesn't look better.

[cato]

At this point in 2016, freshman Luke Kennard was shooting 29.5% from three (on 4.8 three-attempts per game). Over the last 11 games of the regular season, he shot 40% from three (4.5 3attpg), before slumping again in the post-season. So who knows what Proctor's form might translate into moving forward?

If Proctor starts shooting 3s anything like Luke, he will end up by far the best basketball player on this team.

[CDu]

In all seriousness, what am I missing?

Prior to Wake, Duke's AdjOE was 111.1 and its AdjDE 89.7. Since Wake, Duke's AdjOE is 108.5 and its AdjDE is 100.9.

Prior to Wake, Duke was 10-2. Yes, there were some patsies in there, but Kansas, Xavier, Purdue and Ohio State are better teams than any we have played since. Since Wake, Duke has gone 4-4 against not exactly a gauntlet.

I don't mean to be difficult, but that doesn't look better.

Young has a better plus/minus than Lively. Which means that the team has had better results when he has been on the floor. Now plus/minus is a flawed metric for assessing one’s individual play for numerous reasons. But it simply is a fact that the team has fared better when young is in than when Lively is in.

So while it is true that individual stats aren’t a perfect measure, and while it is also true that plus/minus has its limitations, all the stats say Young has been better and the plus/minus agrees.

There are lots of reasons why the AdjOE and AdjDE can vary temporally. But literally looking at the results when each player is in vs when each player is out, Duke has been better with Young on the floor.

Hopefully Lively can change that, as I wholeheartedly agree that the team’s ceiling needs him to be what we thought he would be. But so far, the team has been better with Young than with Lively.

[DukieInBrasil]

Based on stats I've seen, since the December break there have been only 4 players who when they are on the court, the teams as a whole posts better +/- compared to when they are off the floor.
They are: Proctor, Flip, Young and Lively.
So now you know why Jon Scheyer likes to have 2 of the 3 PF/C on the floor a lot. They are the only ones producing.
That said, he needs to find a way to get Flip 5 more minutes of rest per game so he's not totally gassed at the end. Him being exhausted at the end of games is a big part of why Duke has problems closing out games.

total agreement, and maybe that means finding a way to have 2.5+ minutes in each half (more than current) with either Lively or Young as the only "big", meaning Mitchell moves up to the 4, or possibly the dreaded Young+Lively combo. Or maybe it means finding more ways to go zone at times to rest Flip. Flip has clearly shown that he is by far the best player on this team and Jon needs to maximize the chances for him to perform at max level to close out games.

In all seriousness, what am I missing?

Prior to Wake, Duke's AdjOE was 111.1 and its AdjDE 89.7. Since Wake, Duke's AdjOE is 108.5 and its AdjDE is 100.9.
Prior to Wake, Duke was 10-2. Yes, there were some patsies in there, but Kansas, Xavier, Purdue and Ohio State are better teams than any we have played since. Since Wake, Duke has gone 4-4 against not exactly a gauntlet.
I don't mean to be difficult, but that doesn't look better.

Well, since Wake, Duke has gone 4-3, not 4-4. And you are conflating individual player performance with overall team performance, which is subject to the vagaries of many different factors, a game in which we were missing our captain, on the road (a loss), and another game in which another one of our rotation players got injured and had to leave after playing quite well (also a loss). Also a common factor there: true road games, which are much more difficult than neutral courts. It's true that Duke stunk up the joint in Raleigh and we were technically at full strength.

[azzefkram]

Young has a better plus/minus than Lively. Which means that the team has had better results when he has been on the floor. Now plus/minus is a flawed metric for assessing one’s individual play for numerous reasons. But it simply is a fact that the team has fared better when young is in than when Lively is in.

So while it is true that individual stats aren’t a perfect measure, and while it is also true that plus/minus has its limitations, all the stats say Young has been better and the plus/minus agrees.

There are lots of reasons why the AdjOE and AdjDE can vary temporally. But literally looking at the results when each player is in vs when each player is out, Duke has been better with Young on the floor.

Hopefully Lively can change that, as I wholeheartedly agree that the team’s ceiling needs him to be what we thought he would be. But so far, the team has been better with Young than with Lively.

Thank you for the response. We are going to have to agree to disagree. I respect and value your opinions and insights, but plus/minus is an extremely flawed stat. AdjOE and AdjDE are no great shakes but I would rather hang my hat on what they are telling me than +/-.

At the end of the day, I really hope you are right because I don't want to be right. If I am right, Duke will probably have a very unsatisfying post-season. (Unless Jon finally comes to senses and starts playing Dereck more. I keed, I keed)

[tommy]

total agreement, and maybe that means finding a way to have 2.5+ minutes in each half (more than current) with either Lively or Young as the only "big", meaning Mitchell moves up to the 4, or possibly the dreaded Young+Lively combo. Or maybe it means finding more ways to go zone at times to rest Flip. Flip has clearly shown that he is by far the best player on this team and Jon needs to maximize the chances for him to perform at max level to close out games.

I'm starting to dread this combo less than I had. Just thinking it's worth a try for a few minutes here and there, perhaps against a weak opponent or two. Other than when he screens up high or participates in the dribble handoff game, Young can only operate down low, with his back to the basket. Lively has the reputation, and some have seen it from high school/AAU, that he can make midrange jumpshots. He hasn't done it yet at Duke, but I have a feeling that's more a function of comfort and confidence at this level, rather than actual ability. Let him shoot a few. Get the feel. Get comfortable without getting yanked if he misses. I have a feeling they'd start to fall at an acceptable rate. Could be wrong, but that's my guess. If he can do that, not only does it expand the scope of our attack -- which we need -- but then we can maybe play him and Ryan together, while Flip gets the rest he certainly would benefit from.

Defensively I don't think playing them together would be much of a problem. Young guards their big guy and Lively guards the 4, as he can certainly do the way he moves his feet and the way he alters shots from different angles.

[azzefkram]

total agreement, and maybe that means finding a way to have 2.5+ minutes in each half (more than current) with either Lively or Young as the only "big", meaning Mitchell moves up to the 4, or possibly the dreaded Young+Lively combo. Or maybe it means finding more ways to go zone at times to rest Flip. Flip has clearly shown that he is by far the best player on this team and Jon needs to maximize the chances for him to perform at max level to close out games.


Well, since Wake, Duke has gone 4-3, not 4-4. And you are conflating individual player performance with overall team performance, which is subject to the vagaries of many different factors, a game in which we were missing our captain, on the road (a loss), and another game in which another one of our rotation players got injured and had to leave after playing quite well (also a loss). Also a common factor there: true road games, which are much more difficult than neutral courts. It's true that Duke stunk up the joint in Raleigh and we were technically at full strength.

I am including Wake since that is when Ryan resumed the starting 5. I guess I wasn't very clear on that. Yes there are a ton of additional factors and Ryan certainly isn't the sole cause of any Duke underperformance. CDu wrote that Duke performs better when Ryan is on the court and I was responding to that.

[Saratoga2]

I agree with those thinking that Filipowski needs additional short rest periods spaced out during the game. He is our most effective overall player and we seem to have problems scoring if he is out of the lineup, so Jon has to be judicious with those rest periods. The same is true for Young. He is just not the type of player who can be expected to be in for more than 25 minutes per game. The primary player who can sub for him is Lively, which means around 20m minutes for him. To do that he has to reduce his rate of fouling and we have to find a way for him to get opportunities close to the basket.

That said, and as good as Flip has been, we cannot rely on him to score such a high percentage of our points game after game. Who then can pick up a [part of the burden? Young can have games where he can offset down nights for Flip. I would expect Young's point range to vary between 8 and 14.

I agree that Proctor has shown substantial improvement both in running the offense and in scoring. His defense has also gotten better. I can see him consistently proving 15 points and 5 assists.

Roach has become more of scoring guard than a creator for others. He has quickness and can score off the dribble but his 3 point shooting is only fair and not all that threatening to space the floor. If we get 10 or 12 points from Jeremy then that would be a realistic expectation..

Mitchell is a good defender and can go to the hoop and hit free throws. Overall, his value will keep him in the game for at least 30 minute. Great if he could come through with 8 or 10 points consistently.

That leaves the elephant in the room. No Whitehead, at least for a while and I haven't heard a report as yet on him. He was improving in many ways and as a shooting guard/wing was in a position to give us a much needed scoring boost. I have heard the talk of Grandison's past capabilities but have not seen him perform well enough to fill what Whitehead could potentially give us. I am less optimistic about him fulfilling that role, even if given more minutes. Schutt is unknown other than having the reputation of a good 3 point shooter. Jon is not using him, so I have to believe he isn't showing enough to take minutes away from Grandison. Blakes has had a couple of impressive offensive games but generally doesn't appear to be able to give the team a boost.

I just don't see how Jon can overcome the loss of Whitehead. In my opinion we are a good team but our potential would be much better if Whitehead can return.

[azzefkram]

I'm starting to dread this combo less than I had. Just thinking it's worth a try for a few minutes here and there, perhaps against a weak opponent or two. Other than when he screens up high or participates in the dribble handoff game, Young can only operate down low, with his back to the basket. Lively has the reputation, and some have seen it from high school/AAU, that he can make midrange jumpshots. He hasn't done it yet at Duke, but I have a feeling that's more a function of comfort and confidence at this level, rather than actual ability. Let him shoot a few. Get the feel. Get comfortable without getting yanked if he misses. I have a feeling they'd start to fall at an acceptable rate. Could be wrong, but that's my guess. If he can do that, not only does it expand the scope of our attack -- which we need -- but then we can maybe play him and Ryan together, while Flip gets the rest he certainly would benefit from.

Defensively I don't think playing them together would be much of a problem. Young guards their big guy and Lively guards the 4, as he can certainly do the way he moves his feet and the way he alters shots from different angles.

When I first started reading this, I thought tommy had gone crazy-pants. But after finishing it, I can see the logic. I think Dereck should play more but he does need a defensive rebounding caddy (like many shotblockers). Flip is the best choice for this, but Ryan also certainly fits the bill. I pull my non-existent hair out every time I see Dereck at the 5 and Mark at the 4.

[CDu]

Thank you for the response. We are going to have to agree to disagree. I respect and value your opinions and insights, but plus/minus is an extremely flawed stat. AdjOE and AdjDE are no great shakes but I would rather hang my hat on what they are telling me than +/-.

At the end of the day, I really hope you are right because I don't want to be right. If I am right, Duke will probably have a very unsatisfying post-season. (Unless Jon finally comes to senses and starts playing Dereck more. I keed, I keed)

But you are using AdjOE and AdjDE incorrectly here, which is the problem that is leading to your faulty conclusions. AdjOE and AdjDE are themselves simply extensions of +/-, so the fact that Young’s plus/minus is better means the team’s AdjOE and AdjDE are also going to be better when he is on the floor than when Lively is in. The fact that the team’s efficiency is worse in those games just means the team played worse overall. It could be that they played worse when Young was in, or it could be that they played worse when Lively was in, or it could be that they played worse when either guy was in. That is where +/- comes in, because it inherently tells us the efficiency with and without each player in. The adjustment is just a game-level scaling of the efficiency. So because Young has a better plus/minus, it means the team’s adjOE vs AdjDE is better than the AdjOE vs AdjDE when Lively was in.

[Kedsy]

So while it is true that individual stats aren’t a perfect measure, and while it is also true that plus/minus has its limitations, all the stats say Young has been better and the plus/minus agrees.

I think opponents might be on to Ryan Young. We've seen a lot more double-teams coming at him in the past few games, which has lowered both his individual stats and efficiency.


Ryan Young, last 3 games: 23.0 mpg; 11.6 points per 40 mins; 8.7 rebs per 40; 2.3 assists per 40

Also, in his last five games, Ryan is shooting 56.5% from the field, as opposed to the 76.5% he shot from the field in our first 15 games. He also hasn't been to the free throw line, even once, in the past two games.


Dereck Lively, last 3 games: 15.7 mpg; 11.9 points per 40 mins; 13.5 rebs per 40; 1.7 assists per 40.

In those three games, Dereck also has committed 6.0 fouls per 40 minutes, but that means he should be able to safely play 25 or so minutes without being in serious danger fouling out (on average, at least).


So I'd say it's not clear that Ryan Young can perform better than Dereck Lively on offense when opponents bring the double-team.

[CDu]

And to expand on my last post, I suspect that the real reason why our AdjOE and AdjDE are lower in more recent games is due to the guards playing worse. So I suspect that our Adjusted efficiency margin has gotten worse when both guys are in. But again, the plus/minus shows that our efficiency margin - and thus our adjusted efficiency margin, has been better with Young in than with Lively.

[CDu]

I think opponents might be on to Ryan Young. We've seen a lot more double-teams coming at him in the past few games, which has lowered both his individual stats and efficiency.


Ryan Young, last 3 games: 23.0 mpg; 11.6 points per 40 mins; 8.7 rebs per 40; 2.3 assists per 40

Also, in his last five games, Ryan is shooting 56.5% from the field, as opposed to the 76.5% he shot from the field in our first 15 games. He also hasn't been to the free throw line, even once, in the past two games.


Dereck Lively, last 3 games: 15.7 mpg; 11.9 points per 40 mins; 13.5 rebs per 40; 1.7 assists per 40.

In those three games, Dereck also has committed 6.0 fouls per 40 minutes, but that means he should be able to safely play 25 or so minutes without being in serious danger fouling out (on average, at least).


So I'd say it's not clear that Ryan Young can perform better than Dereck Lively on offense when opponents bring the double-team.

I would suggest there is a real risk of small sample size effect here. Young has shot 67% over the past 3 games, which is basically right in line with his norms. He had two subpar shooting games the two games prior to that. So I am not sure how much they figured out vs him just having two bad games and course correcting since.

As for Lively, that awesome rebound rate is mainly driven by one awesome game against Miami.

That said, if Lively has more games like Miami moving forward, his minutes will go up.

[UrinalCake]

Prior to Wake, Duke's AdjOE was 111.1 and its AdjDE 89.7. Since Wake, Duke's AdjOE is 108.5 and its AdjDE is 100.9. Prior to Wake, Duke was 10-2... Since Wake, Duke has gone 4-4 against not exactly a gauntlet.

Our teams historically have performed great in November and December and struggled in January, even in years where there are no major roster changes. I typically chalk it up to elite freshmen having an advantage out of the gate when games are more about raw talent, opponents adjusting to our play and us failing to counter those adjustments, more true road games (Wake was our first this season), and the grind of conference play wearing down younger players. I think our numbers were naturally going to come down in January no matter what, irrespective of Lively's minutes. I also don't think his minutes increased THAT much across the two windows you provided. I'm not a stats guy so I don't have proof, but again I think our numbers are more about the team as a whole and less about Lively playing 15 minutes instead of 10 or whatever.

ETA: Also Roach missed three games during the "bad" stretch and was clearly not 100% leading up to his missed games. That's clearly going to impact our numbers.