Where does the team go from here? A look into recent results for clues...

[CDu]

It's crazy that we, as a fan base, have gone from arguing at the beginning of the season whether Flip would start or even whether he'd be the 8th man, to trying to figure out how to best find him a couple minutes of rest as he approaches 40 minutes a game. Shows what we know.

Yeah, this season has been crazy. The top 2 recruits have been borderline playable at all for good chunks of the season. The “safe floor, good shooting” vet wing has struggled for consistent minutes despite a need for perimeter shooting and wing play. The token backup center has been one of our best players so far. And the top-5 recruit who had a brutal summer and CTC has been our best and most indispensable player. Strange, strange season, to say the least.

[scottdude8]

Yeah, this season has been crazy. The top 2 recruits have been borderline playable at all for good chunks of the season. The “safe floor, good shooting” vet wing has struggled for consistent minutes despite a need for perimeter shooting and wing play. The token backup center has been one of our best players so far. And the top-5 recruit who had a brutal summer and CTC has been our best and most indispensable player. Strange, strange season, to say the least.

Yup, and this is worth remembering when we’re talking about the “elephant in the room” (ie Scheyer’s performance) elsewhere. Jon was arguably dealt a hand that would’ve been challenging for ANY coach. We have to judge him with that in mind.

[CDu]

Yup, and this is worth remembering when we’re talking about the “elephant in the room” (ie Scheyer’s performance) elsewhere. Jon was arguably dealt a hand that would’ve been challenging for ANY coach. We have to judge him with that in mind.

Yeah, I think any assessment of Scheyer’s coaching should be incomplete at this stage. Between injury and odd performance, we just don’t can’t know if he is going to work out or not.

[CasualObserver]

Lots of food for thought. 3 token thoughts:

1. I wonder if Grandison would do better playing heavier minutes, allowing him to get more into a flow. He played heavy minutes at Illinois. With Whitehead unavailable, it might be interesting to give that a try.

2. While there was commentary above that Lively/Ryan combined minutes don’t make sense for the reason stated, that might not have to be the case if Young takes some shots from the high post. He is a very good free throw shooter.

3. When Proctor/Roach begin a drive, it seems to me their pass to the wing is more out of last minute desperation. Their field of vision should allow them to see if the defensive wing starts coming in. It would be at that moment to make the pass, not at the point they are surrounded.

[jv001]

Thanks, CDu for a very well thought out thread and the posts so far have been great. Some of my thughts.

1) The rotation without Whitehead. Grandison seems the logical choice for increased minutes in my opinion. He's experienced, has a history of being a good 3-point shooter. Whitehead to me seemed to be more of a guard than a SF because of his tendency to stay on the perimeter. Especially when Jeremy was out. Grandison looks to be a pretty good defender and is usually in the right place at the right time.

2) As for Shutt I don't have an idea of how good he is. I do know that 3-point shooting is a team weakness and he's supposed to be a good shooter. I guess Coach Scheyer has his reasons for not playing him much. But I felt the same about Coach K at times (Justin Robinson).

3) Getting Lively more minutes so as to shorten Youngs minutes seems to be the solution, but Derrick needs to stay on the court without fouling so much. If he would just quit using his hands when defending that would help. He's gotten a reputation of being foul prone and the refs are not going to give him the benefit of the doubt. He needs to have better hands as well, mostly on rebounding. Too many balls that he doesn't bring in.

4) I think more zone defense would help Derrick stay on the court as well. I'm not talking big minutes in a zone but a few to give the opponent a different look and keep Livley on the court longer.

5) Coach Scheyer said that lack of communication on defense was the main reason that the team defended poorly in the first half against VT. I remember Coach K talking about the lack of communication in prior seasons. We need to clean that up.

6) The improvement by Proctor has been evident. He's the best in the pick-n-roll with Lively and I'd like to see more of that. Now if Tyrese can keep improving that outside shot, that would take the team to another level.

Sorry for the long post.

GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Thanks, CDu for a very well thought out thread and the posts so far have been great. Some of my thughts.

1) The rotation without Whitehead. Grandison seems the logical choice for increased minutes in my opinion. He's experienced, has a history of being a good 3-point shooter. Whitehead to me seemed to be more of a guard than a SF because of his tendency to stay on the perimeter. Especially when Jeremy was out. Grandison looks to be a pretty good defender and is usually in the right place at the right time.

2) As for Shutt I don't have an idea of how good he is. I do know that 3-point shooting is a team weakness and he's supposed to be a good shooter. I guess Coach Scheyer has his reasons for not playing him much. But I felt the same about Coach K at times (Justin Robinson).

3) Getting Lively more minutes so as to shorten Youngs minutes seems to be the solution, but Derrick needs to stay on the court without fouling so much. If he would just quit using his hands when defending that would help. He's gotten a reputation of being foul prone and the refs are not going to give him the benefit of the doubt. He needs to have better hands as well, mostly on rebounding. Too many balls that he doesn't bring in.

4) I think more zone defense would help Derrick stay on the court as well. I'm not talking big minutes in a zone but a few to give the opponent a different look and keep Livley on the court longer.

5) Coach Scheyer said that lack of communication on defense was the main reason that the team defended poorly in the first half against VT. I remember Coach K talking about the lack of communication in prior seasons. We need to clean that up.

6) The improvement by Proctor has been evident. He's the best in the pick-n-roll with Lively and I'd like to see more of that. Now if Tyrese can keep improving that outside shot, that would take the team to another level.

Sorry for the long post.

GoDuke!

I love the idea of Grandison playing heavy minutes. He is a) a shooter and b) a solid defender. His defense isn't as good as we originally thought, but he's not a liability. Which is why it's so surprising he isn't playing more. With Whitehead out for a while (he's shooting 44% from 3 in ACC play), we desperately need 3pt shooting. Roach isn't the answer. Proctor isn't the answer. Flip had one great 3pt shooting game a couple of days ago but, other than that, he's not the answer. Mitchell has stopped shooting threes. So Grandison needs to play and shoot some damn threes.

[superdave]

If Lively and Young can't both be on the court at the same time (i.e., they split 40 minutes), then a 7-man rotation means everyone except Lively and Young (including Grandison) averages 32 mpg. That would seem to me to be less than ideal for Grandison, Mitchell, and Roach (because of his lingering injury). If those three guys average 25 to 28 minutes, that would mean there's 12 to 21 mpg left for an 8th guy. If Coach doesn't want to play Blakes for all of those 12 to 21 minutes, it would seem to open up some playing time for Schutt (or one of the others, but I assume Schutt) as the 9th guy. Or do you see all five of them (including Grandison, who hasn't topped 26 minutes in any game this season) playing 30+ minutes and Blakes picking up the 5 (or so) minute scraps?

I would play Blakes 10 mpg game and have him pick up full court the whole time. I would also play Schutt 5-8 mpg. Both need to be invested if Scheyer wants them back next year. Use the Whitehead injury to get these guys some reps and build towards next year.

[UrinalCake]

That said, I assume you mean Mark Williams, rather than Mark Mitchell? Williams was a much better offensive player, including a pretty decent post game, than Lively is. Williams's freshman oRating of 125 (vs. Lively's 110) attests to that. As does his 18.7 points per 40 minutes (vs. Lively's 10.0), his 6.0 offensive box-plus-minus (vs. Lively's -0.7), his 66.4 eFG% (vs. Lively's 56.1%), his 77.0% at the rim (vs. Lively's 64.4%), and his 40.7% on two-point jumpers (vs. Lively's 20%). There's really no legitimate comparison.

Yes, I said the wrong Mark . I agree that freshman year Williams's offense was better than Lively's has been so far. I didn't come armed with stats, but my eye test says that Williams could score in the post a couple times a game and occasionally took a mid range jumper that he hit at a high percentage. I would be curious to know what his stats were as of late January though; he really came on at the end of the season so I think if we considered where he was at the same time as the current season then the difference would not be as pronounced. I also recall that Williams was a poor rebounder for most of the year, many of us speculated that he was chasing blocks rather than maintaining good position, until he responded with a double digit rebounding game in the ACCT.

Anyways, my point was that I am hopeful that Lively's offense could improve to the point that it is on par with what Williams gave us as a freshman. Maybe that's not realistic, but he should be able to give us more than he is currently. And if he wants to make a similar end of year jump, that would be awesome too.

[scottdude8]

I love the idea of Grandison playing heavy minutes. He is a) a shooter and b) a solid defender. His defense isn't as good as we originally thought, but he's not a liability. Which is why it's so surprising he isn't playing more. With Whitehead out for a while (he's shooting 44% from 3 in ACC play), we desperately need 3pt shooting. Roach isn't the answer. Proctor isn't the answer. Flip had one great 3pt shooting game a couple of days ago but, other than that, he's not the answer. Mitchell has stopped shooting threes. So Grandison needs to play and shoot some damn threes.

Agreed. Grandison played 25 mpg last year for an Illinois team that ended the year ranked in the AP Top 20. He has proven he can do it. Why he hasn't produced at that level in a Duke uniform is still one of the ongoing mysteries of this year... maybe he hasn't adjusted as well to coming off the bench, maybe he needs more shots and consistent minutes to find his stroke, who knows. But if Whitehead is out a long time, it's a major luxury to have a guy like him to slot in to many of those minutes. And there's evidence to show that maybe he'll be able to make more of an impact than we'd expect.

[jv001]

Agreed. Grandison played 25 mpg last year for an Illinois team that ended the year ranked in the AP Top 20. He has proven he can do it. Why he hasn't produced at that level in a Duke uniform is still one of the ongoing mysteries of this year... maybe he hasn't adjusted as well to coming off the bench, maybe he needs more shots and consistent minutes to find his stroke, who knows. But if Whitehead is out a long time, it's a major luxury to have a guy like him to slot in to many of those minutes. And there's evidence to show that maybe he'll be able to make more of an impact than we'd expect.

Grandison has proved he can do it and I think one of the reasons for his inconsistency was the up and down minutes he was getting. Don't put him on a short leash and go with it.

GoDuke!

[azzefkram]

Lively is my top guy here. He's played 15 or fewer minutes in 6 of our last 7 games (and he only had 18 mins in the seventh game), and he's only been in foul trouble in one (maybe two) of them. Coach doesn't appear to trust him with more minutes, but I think we need him playing more than 20 mpg (I'd personally prefer 25-ish) for this team to make a serious run.

This. Since Wake, Duke's D has been quite poor (ranked 133 per Torvik). Dereck has some warts, but he can defend. Is his offense extremely limited? Yes, but so is everyone else's not named Flip. I can see going offense over defense if you are really elevating the O, but Duke hasn't been setting the world on fire offensively (ranked 89 per Torvik). Heck, that period even includes 2 of Duke's top 3 offensive performances: FSU (thank you Ryan) and VTech (thank you Flip).

[azzefkram]

That said, I assume you mean Mark Williams, rather than Mark Mitchell? Williams was a much better offensive player, including a pretty decent post game, than Lively is. Williams's freshman oRating of 125 (vs. Lively's 110) attests to that. As does his 18.7 points per 40 minutes (vs. Lively's 10.0), his 6.0 offensive box-plus-minus (vs. Lively's -0.7), his 66.4 eFG% (vs. Lively's 56.1%), his 77.0% at the rim (vs. Lively's 64.4%), and his 40.7% on two-point jumpers (vs. Lively's 20%). There's really no legitimate comparison.

I won't argue that Dereck is better than Mark W offensively (he is not) but some of those number quotes should come with the small sample size caveat. Dereck makes his next 3 two-point jumpers and he shooting 50% on two-point jumpers for the season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I won't argue that Dereck is better than Mark W offensively (he is not) but some of those number quotes should come with the small sample size caveat. Dereck makes his next 3 two-point jumpers and he shooting 50% on two-point jumpers for the season.

What does it tell you about Lively if he has only taken five 2pt jumpers all season? That he's saving this offensive tool for later in the season? Or that he's really bad at jumpers right now?

Lively isn't making Duke that much better offensively. He is limited. Extremely limited. Scouts drastically overestimated his offensive potential, and they didn't have great things to say about his offense to begin with.

[DukieInBrasil]

I won't argue that Dereck is better than Mark W offensively (he is not) but some of those number quotes should come with the small sample size caveat. Dereck makes his next 3 two-point jumpers and he shooting 50% on two-point jumpers for the season.

and that would be 3 times as many jumpers as he's made all season. Lively is not a shooter, and has done nothing this year to dispel that perception. Get him more opportunities running at the rim for dunks, he's really good at that.

[azzefkram]

What does it tell you about Lively if he has only taken five 2pt jumpers all season? That he's saving this offensive tool for later in the season? Or that he's really bad at jumpers right now?

Lively isn't making Duke that much better offensively. He is limited. Extremely limited. Scouts drastically overestimated his offensive potential, and they didn't have great things to say about his offense to begin with.

It tells me nothing. Dereck has taken 5 two-point jumpers on the season, Ryan (who no one calls limited, even though he is) has taken 6. As for the scouts, I wouldn't say that. I remember reading he was a rim runner/lob threat. That's pretty much what he's shown at Duke. Unfortunately, that offensive profile requires a level of guard play that Duke really has yet to show so far. I would say that Dereck's offense is limited but looks extremely limited because Duke's guard play has been lackluster (though I think Tyrese and Jeremy are improving).

[azzefkram]

and that would be 3 times as many jumpers as he's made all season. Lively is not a shooter, and has done nothing this year to dispel that perception. Get him more opportunities running at the rim for dunks, he's really good at that.

Not really the point (though I do agree that Duke should get him more rim-running opportunities).

[CDu]

The biggest problems for Lively are twofold:
1. He hasn't played as well as his theoretical backup, and
2. He can't play alongside his theoretical backup.

If he starts playing like he did against Miami a bit more consistently, he will overtake Young. But he isn't playing that way with any regularly. And as such, he's playing limited minutes.

Put another way, the team is generally better with Young on the floor right now. Once Lively changes that statement, he'll play more.

Yes, the defense is better with Lively than with Young. But the offense is better with Young than with Lively. And in aggregate, the team is better overall with Young than with Lively.

Hopefully Lively can change that, and soon. Our ceiling depends on Lively getting there. But he isn't there yet. And I don't think playing him more in hopes he gets there is the right way to do it. They should play him what his play merits. And hopefully his play will start to merit playing over Young, and starting soon.

[azzefkram]

Yes, the defense is better with Lively than with Young. But the offense is better with Young than with Lively. And in aggregate, the team is better overall with Young than with Lively.

Agree with the first 2 points and disagree with the third. Since Wake, Duke is 4-4 against an average schedule. TRank has fallen from 9 to 38, AdjOE has fallen from 31 to 48 (89th ranked O during that time), and AdjDE has fallen from 21-53 (133rd ranked D during that time).

Maybe Duke would perform worse if Dereck and Ryan's minutes were flipped, but that is just speculation.

[JayZee]

The biggest problems for Lively are twofold:
1. He hasn't played as well as his theoretical backup, and
2. He can't play alongside his theoretical backup.

If he starts playing like he did against Miami a bit more consistently, he will overtake Young. But he isn't playing that way with any regularly. And as such, he's playing limited minutes.

Put another way, the team is generally better with Young on the floor right now. Once Lively changes that statement, he'll play more.

Yes, the defense is better with Lively than with Young. But the offense is better with Young than with Lively. And in aggregate, the team is better overall with Young than with Lively.

Hopefully Lively can change that, and soon. Our ceiling depends on Lively getting there. But he isn't there yet. And I don't think playing him more in hopes he gets there is the right way to do it. They should play him what his play merits. And hopefully his play will start to merit playing over Young, and starting soon.

Agree that our ceiling is dependent on Lively improving, especially with Dariq out.

Not sure why playing him more wouldn't increase the chances of him improving. With limited minutes, the tendency can be to demonstrate one's ability to affect the game. Lively seems like he needs the game to slow down, and to slow himself down and not go for every block. And he needs to learn to play without fouling. Wouldn't knowing that he has a longer leash and an expectation of more minutes force him to be a touch more conservative?

[CDu]

Agree with the first 2 points and disagree with the third. Since Wake, Duke is 4-4 against an average schedule. TRank has fallen from 9 to 38, AdjOE has fallen from 31 to 48 (89th ranked O during that time), and AdjDE has fallen from 21-53 (133rd ranked D during that time).

Maybe Duke would perform worse if Dereck and Ryan's minutes were flipped, but that is just speculation.

All the statistical evidence we have says definitively that Young has played better than Lively. And it isn't close.