Where does the team go from here? A look into recent results for clues...

[Kedsy]

I think we can succeed with a 7- or 7-5-man rotation. It's just that one of Grandison, Blakes, and Schutt has to step up into that role. Grandison seems the most likely having done so before, but really if we can get to the point where Scheyer trusts 7 guys to play legitimate minutes in the second half, we can probably make it work.

If Lively and Young can't both be on the court at the same time (i.e., they split 40 minutes), then a 7-man rotation means everyone except Lively and Young (including Grandison) averages 32 mpg. That would seem to me to be less than ideal for Grandison, Mitchell, and Roach (because of his lingering injury). If those three guys average 25 to 28 minutes, that would mean there's 12 to 21 mpg left for an 8th guy. If Coach doesn't want to play Blakes for all of those 12 to 21 minutes, it would seem to open up some playing time for Schutt (or one of the others, but I assume Schutt) as the 9th guy. Or do you see all five of them (including Grandison, who hasn't topped 26 minutes in any game this season) playing 30+ minutes and Blakes picking up the 5 (or so) minute scraps?

[tommy]

We need for both Roach and Proctor to shoot fewer 3s, which ties in with, they both need to be much more selective about when they shoot 3s. I'd love to see Grandison get more shots on post-touch redirect passes.
I agree with CDu that improvements from Filipowski and Proctor are key. Now, if Lively can show the % improvement that Flip n Ty have, then that could help take this team up a notch. Mitchell hasn't really shown any improvement this year, but he has been good and very steadily good throughout the year. Young also continues to be the same player he has been, and that is fine. Grandison has shown no improvement this year, and actually a large regression from his stats from last year. Blakes had a pair of phenomenal games, has improved from last year, but otherwise has not really improved during the course of this year. The biggest disappointment has been the captain Jeremy Roach who is essentially the same player he was last year, and a decent argument could be made that he is playing worse this year than last (all of his shooting %s are lower, his assist rate is the same, but turnovers are up, but he is stealing the ball at a slightly higher rate), and he definitely has not improved during the course of the year. The worst part is that his feel for the game is as bad or worse than it was last year. He's got a quick first step that can get past his initial defender but after that it's hard to know what he's good at.
I think Jon and the staff need to be much more dedicated to calling plays for this team, since they don't have a single player on the team who is consistently good at creating or knowing how to attack the defense.

Were you saying that 72 hours ago after he keyed the big win over Miami?

[Kedsy]

Grandison has shown no improvement this year, and actually a large regression from his stats from last year.

Is it really that large a regression? His stats are pretty similar to last season at Illinois, except for his three-point percentage. That difference seems large, but is actually only a matter of having made four (4) of his three-point misses over the course of 20 games, which is one additional make every couple of weeks. I'm not saying that's nothing, but I wouldn't call it a large regression.

[UrinalCake]

Now, can Lively/the team do a better job of getting Lively into easy scoring positions? Like tons of pick-n-rolls? Can Lively be better on the offensive glass? Can Lively do more than just set screens? I think the answer to all of those is 'yes'. No idea if it's Lively or the coaching staff not prioritizing Lively's offense, but I'd like to see it.

Every game we execute one PNR in the first half where Lively dives to the rim and gets a lob dunk. But that's it. Why do we stop looking for that? I don't expect Lively to be Okafor in the post either, but he should be able to score at the rate Mark Mitchell did as a freshman, which is to say a few times a game we feed it to him in the post, especially when he has a mismatch against a smaller defender, and he actually tries to do something instead of passing it right back out. He also needs to go up stronger with the ball, on the rare chance that he does attempt a layup or hook shot he's falling away or weakly tossing it at the rim. We have a size advantage in nearly every game, yet it doesn't seem like we take advantage of it.

[DukieInBrasil]

Were you saying that 72 hours ago after he keyed the big win over Miami?

did you know that two things can be true at the same time? Roach has had more than just one game where he was an important part of an important victory. It is also true that statistically speaking, he has been worse this year than last year. To me, that's disappointing.

Per this thread, I don't have much expectation that Roach will improve all that much this year. Really the only thing he needs to improve is his decision making, and if that is just a function of who he is as a player, then it's hard to see how that happens. He had a stretch last year when he really reduced the "dial his own number" mentality and did a better than good job of being a distributing PG, and he was pretty efficient from the floor too. Perhaps he can re-find that mojo, or maybe the composition of this team just doesn't allow for him to play that way.

[simplyluvin]

For the season our 3pt defense is actually quite good. It was bad against VT and Miami. But it's been good on the season.

Yeah like I said, there is some recency bias, but I also care mainly about elite shooting teams. We held Clemson to a low percentage but fared very poorly with the aforementioned other two. Notre Dame and Syracuse seem to be the remaining good to great 3pt shooting teams that will be good tests for us.

[Kedsy]

Every game we execute one PNR in the first half where Lively dives to the rim and gets a lob dunk. But that's it. Why do we stop looking for that? I don't expect Lively to be Okafor in the post either, but he should be able to score at the rate Mark Mitchell did as a freshman, which is to say a few times a game we feed it to him in the post, especially when he has a mismatch against a smaller defender, and he actually tries to do something instead of passing it right back out. He also needs to go up stronger with the ball, on the rare chance that he does attempt a layup or hook shot he's falling away or weakly tossing it at the rim. We have a size advantage in nearly every game, yet it doesn't seem like we take advantage of it.

I agree with your overall premise. We should look for that lob to Lively more. I was astonished at how easy he made that alley-oop look last night, on a pass that was a good way away from the basket and was thrown before Lively started his jump.

That said, I assume you mean Mark Williams, rather than Mark Mitchell? Williams was a much better offensive player, including a pretty decent post game, than Lively is. Williams's freshman oRating of 125 (vs. Lively's 110) attests to that. As does his 18.7 points per 40 minutes (vs. Lively's 10.0), his 6.0 offensive box-plus-minus (vs. Lively's -0.7), his 66.4 eFG% (vs. Lively's 56.1%), his 77.0% at the rim (vs. Lively's 64.4%), and his 40.7% on two-point jumpers (vs. Lively's 20%). There's really no legitimate comparison.

[MarkD83]

I enjoy the conversation and just wanted to point out that at 20 games into the season,

1. Players can focus on their strengths but really won't improve their weaknesses.
2. There are things that individuals and teams can improve right now due to effort and focus. Shooting is not one of those skills.
3. The time is over for Coach S to experiment but rather take what works and maximize these things.
4. With 11 regular season games left if Duke's best players play 35+ minutes a game they should be able to handle that as long as Coach S manages rest during the game (I believe someone above pointed that out).


So, with those caveats here is what I would love to see going forward. (I am assuming Whitehead is done for the season. If he comes back that is a bonus).

The players that will play and the roles they will play:

1) Filipowski - be the man
2) Roach - Be more vocal during key segments of the game...demand the ball when it is crunch-time. Drive and dish or drive and shoot, 3 ptrs only if wide open.
3) Proctor - Be the point guard you have been in the last several games. I like that he took the last 3 ptr against VT. Don't be afraid to do that going forward.
4) Mitchell - As someone mentioned continue to be the swiss army knife.
5) Young - Stay in the paint and get offensive rebounds and put backs or kick it out.
6) Grandison- Be alert for the kick outs from Young for a 3 ptr, also be a swiss army knife but more on the perimeter.
7) Lively - Be a pest in the post - Try to block everything and if you have to use all 5 fouls...do it.
8) Blakes - Be a pest on defense like earlier in the year. If you have to use all 5 fouls as you go for steals and 50/50 balls do it.

Overall as a team...

1) Rebound, rebound, rebound - If the offense is a missed shot and an offensive rebound and a put back than do it. The defense ends when you get the rebound.
2) Drive everything but pull up for the mid-range shots...Duke has the size to rebound if there are missed 10-15 footers.
3) No 3 pointers until you move the defense around with 2-3 passes or a kick out.
4) Pick up full court with the 3 guards and Grandison when he is in and then drop back to the match-up zone. Mixing in the switching man to man is also OK.

(As an aside...it is really refreshing this year to not constantly see opposing guards run past switches for lay-ups.)

OK enough said...I hope Coach S is reading this.

[Kedsy]

Yeah like I said, there is some recency bias, but I also care mainly about elite shooting teams.

Except coming into last night's game, Virginia Tech was not an elite shooting team. Their season-long 3pt% not including last night was 33.9% (Duke's is 32.1%). Their 3pt% in conference games (again, not including last night) was 31.2% (Duke's is 33.3%).

[flyingdutchdevil]

Except coming into last night's game, Virginia Tech was not an elite shooting team. Their season-long 3pt% not including last night was 33.9% (Duke's is 32.1%). Their 3pt% in conference games (again, not including last night) was 31.2% (Duke's is 33.3%).

But they have an elite shooter in Cattoor, who shot 10 of VT's 19 3pt shots. And as a 41% shooter, he did make 5-10.

[bshrader]

[QUOTE=Kedsy;1558045]Except coming into last night's game, Virginia Tech was not an elite shooting team. Their season-long 3pt% not including last night was 33.9% (Duke's is 32.1%). Their 3pt% in conference games (again, not including last night) was 31.2% (Duke's is 33.3%).[/Q

Having watched quite a bit of VT games this year, I think much of their shooting woes can be attributed to not having Cattoor for that stretch of games. Not only for his skill as a shooter individually, but how his presence on the court opens their offense generally into finding better shot selection.

[CDu]

If Lively and Young can't both be on the court at the same time (i.e., they split 40 minutes), then a 7-man rotation means everyone except Lively and Young (including Grandison) averages 32 mpg. That would seem to me to be less than ideal for Grandison, Mitchell, and Roach (because of his lingering injury). If those three guys average 25 to 28 minutes, that would mean there's 12 to 21 mpg left for an 8th guy. If Coach doesn't want to play Blakes for all of those 12 to 21 minutes, it would seem to open up some playing time for Schutt (or one of the others, but I assume Schutt) as the 9th guy. Or do you see all five of them (including Grandison, who hasn't topped 26 minutes in any game this season) playing 30+ minutes and Blakes picking up the 5 (or so) minute scraps?

I think Mitchell and Grandison can handle 32-35 mpg, as can Flip and Proctor. The key to me is staggering their rest to allow for a couple of minutes each half. I don’t think the lack of Grandison having played more than 26 minutes in a game this season is less to do with Grandison’s ability to do so and more to do with Scheyer’s preferred rotation. But with Whitehead out, “preferred” goes out the window.

Roach I could see playing less, at least in the short term. But probably no less than the 25-28 as you suggest. From there, either those additional 4-8 mpg are absorbed by the other four, or they are absorbed by Blakes or Schutt.

To be clear, I am not saying this is the only approach. Scheyer could certainly choose to play Blakes more. But I don’t think he is forced to do so.

We could see basically a 7-man something like:
Flip (34)
Proctor (34)
Grandison (30-32)
Mitchell (30)
Roach (26)
Lively/Young (38-40)
Blakes (4-8)

Or I could see a 7.5 man something like:
Flip (34)
Proctor (34)
Mitchell (30)
Roach (26)
Grandison (24)
Lively/Young (38-40)
Blakes (12-14)

Or a true 8-man rotation looking something like this:
Flip (34)
Proctor (34)
Mitchell (28)
Roach (26)
Lively/Young (38-40)
Grandison (20)
Blakes (18-20)

I don’t see any of these as problematic approaches, so long as a little rest is given each half.

[Kedsy]

But they have an elite shooter in Cattoor, who shot 10 of VT's 19 3pt shots. And as a 41% shooter, he did make 5-10.

I agree we let Cattoor get too many open shots, but 5 of 10 is only one make more than you'd expect based on his season percentage (and that one was easy to identify after it bounced four feet in the air before lucking into the basket). I'd argue a bigger problem was the rest of the team shooting 56% from three last night, after they'd shot 32.5% (29.3% in conference games) for the season before last night.

[simplyluvin]

Our three best 3pt shooters - Schutt, Grandison, and Whitehead - aren't playing or can't paly. As others have pointed out, Grandison had less than 10 minutes in 3 of the last 7 ACC games. Schutt cannot get off the bench. Whitehead looks to be out at least quite a few games.

One of our 2 lead guards - Roach - has always been a 'meh' 3pt shooter. The other - despite good form and a clear greenlight from the coaching staff - is terrible at 3s. Remember Trevon Duval, who everyone ragged on for poor 3pt shooting? That dude shot 29% from 3, or 300+ basis points higher than Proctor.

I get Proctor is our best distributor and Roach is our leader. But you gotta get some shooters out there on the floor. Play Grandison and Schutt more!

It’s challenging when our primary guards are poor outside shooters. You cite Duval as exhibit A. Tre Jones shot 26% in his freshman year offset by incredibly efficient 2pt shooting. Keels surprisingly poor shooting (31%) was more than offset by outstanding shooting from AJ and Wendell.

[CDu]

But they have an elite shooter in Cattoor, who shot 10 of VT's 19 3pt shots. And as a 41% shooter, he did make 5-10.

Yeah, throw those season-long percentages out of the window. Not only were they missing their best and most prolific 3pt shooter for 4 games, but their percentages on the season were also dragged down by Darius Maddox (32% on high volume) who was essentially benched during the Clemson game after starting the prior 19 games, and played just 6 minutes with no attempts against Duke.

Don’t get me wrong: Tech still shot way better than they should have. But the lineup they played against us was notably better than a .339 shooting group.

[Kedsy]

I don’t see any of these as problematic approaches, so long as a little rest is given each half.

I agree none of those options are problematic. But I see any on-court lineup featuring all of Young, Blakes, and Mitchell as less than ideal. There's a tight ceiling with that lineup, very little shooting ability, not enough dynamic athleticism, and no matchup advantages there. All three of them are valuable players, but with a shorter rotation they'd all have to play at the same time more than I'd prefer.

Having Lively, Blakes, and Mitchell at the same time would also be less than preferable. Amazing defense, but we'd better shut out the opponent for that stretch because you're not going to get much offense from that trio.

If it were me, I'd try to figure out rotations in which Blakes spells Mitchell (with Grandison or Schutt, if he's able to defend the position, sliding over to SF) but ideally Mitchell and Blakes would rarely be on the court together. I'm not sure how possible that is with Blakes playing more minutes.

[CDu]

I agree none of those options are problematic. But I see any on-court lineup featuring all of Young, Blakes, and Mitchell as less than ideal. There's a tight ceiling with that lineup, very little shooting ability, not enough dynamic athleticism, and no matchup advantages there. All three of them are valuable players, but with a shorter rotation they'd all have to play at the same time more than I'd prefer.

Having Lively, Blakes, and Mitchell at the same time would also be less than preferable. Amazing defense, but we'd better shut out the opponent for that stretch because you're not going to get much offense from that trio.

If it were me, I'd try to figure out rotations in which Blakes spells Mitchell (with Grandison or Schutt, if he's able to defend the position, sliding over to SF) but ideally Mitchell and Blakes would rarely be on the court together. I'm not sure how possible that is with Blakes playing more minutes.

I agree that having Blakes and Mitchell in together with one of the centers feels suboptimal offensively. If we think of the substitution patterns as Blakes only coming in when Mitchell or the center is out, then that would preclude the last scenario (as they sum to over 40 minutes) but not necessarily the middle scenario so long as Mitchell plus Blakes plus the two centers <= 80 minutes. That middle scenario is a bit trickier rotationally but doable.

[SouthernDukie]

Or a true 8-man rotation looking something like this:
Flip (34)
Proctor (34)
Mitchell (28)
Roach (26)
Lively/Young (38-40)
Grandison (20)
Blakes (18-20)

I don’t see any of these as problematic approaches, so long as a little rest is given each half.

This would be my preferred rotation going forward. Keep guys as fresh as possible using all 8 guys, and maybe even mix in some full court pressure every so often to at least try and generate easy points off turnovers (especially when Blakes is in the game).

What I don't want to see is Coach S whittling it down to a 7 man rotation. I just don't see that being a winning formula going forward. Flip was gassed as it was last night. And I don't think he was the only one.

[CDu]

This would be my preferred rotation going forward. Keep guys as fresh as possible using all 8 guys, and maybe even mix in some full court pressure every so often to at least try and generate easy points off turnovers (especially when Blakes is in the game).

What I don't want to see is Coach S whittling it down to a 7 man rotation. I just don't see that being a winning formula going forward. Flip was gassed as it was last night. And I don't think he was the only one.

And I would actually prefer the first of the three options. I think we can build a rotation in which we minimize the dearth of impact players while also giving everyone enough rest. I think the key to the second half fatigue was the absence of any rest for Flip. If we can steal 2-3 minutes of rest each half, that should be enough.

[Kedsy]

And I would actually prefer the first of the three options. I think we can build a rotation in which we minimize the dearth of impact players while also giving everyone enough rest. I think the key to the second half fatigue was the absence of any rest for Flip. If we can steal 2-3 minutes of rest each half, that should be enough.

It's crazy that we, as a fan base, have gone from arguing at the beginning of the season whether Flip would start or even whether he'd be the 8th man, to trying to figure out how to best find him a couple minutes of rest as he approaches 40 minutes a game. Shows what we know.