Where does the team go from here? A look into recent results for clues...

[CDu]

Obviously last night was a frustrating loss. We saw some really good things (great start, excellent offensive results overall, cut down on the turnovers and shot well) and some bad things (terrible defense, crucial missed free throws, not finishing off the win), and some terrible things (the injury to Whitehead, the throat shot). With that result, it's going to be a fight to get anywhere near where we've typically finished the season in the last decade. And most likely we won't get there. But I'm less interested in guessing whether we'll make the unlikely jump to a 3-4 seed or whether we'll wind up on the bubble or something in between. What I'm interested in discussing/thinking about is the path to success moving forward this season, whatever "success" turns out to be.

Things I'm growing quite comfortable with:
- Filipowski. Full disclosure: after the Clemson game, I posted a thread about his inefficiency and overuse. He was generally too turnover-happy and very ineffiicient as a shooter/scorer. To his credit, with the week off after that game he has made some adjustments and completely changed the narrative. Over the past two games, he has averaged 23 ppg, 12 rpg, 2 apg, 2 spg, 1 bpg, and a 4:1 A:TO ratio, along with shooting 50% on 2s and 45.5% on 3s. He's been completely magnificent. I'm comfortable that he's figured out how to avoid those turnovers, and in doing so his decisionmaking is allowing him to dominate. He's filling that lead dog role that we expected Whitehead to fill.
- Young's offense: in conference play, he remains our best player in terms of PER, WS/40, and total win shares. For the season, he's tops in those categories plus BPM (BPM isn't available for conference play, otherwise he'd be tops there too). Is he limited? Absolutely. Is he playing at his ceiling right now? Almost certainly. But what he provides is a very savvy, veteran offensive player who produces, and provides excellent defensive rebounding as well.
- Mitchell as a Swiss-army knife defender. He's long, rangy, athletic, and tenacious, and has generally been a very good on-ball defender. He hasn't won every matchup (stronger bigs can give him trouble), but his versatility is a nice boost.

Things I'm warming up to:
- Proctor at PG. It's a small sample size, and there are still some warts on display, but here's what Proctor has done over the last 4 games: 13 ppg (on 11.3 FGA), 3.5 apg, 2.8 rpg, and a nearly 3:1 A:TO ratio. He's still not shooting as well as we'd like from a lead guard, but he's improving: 30.8% from 3 in that span. He has tallied 5+ assists in 2 of those 4 games and double-digit points in all 4. If he can be a 12-14 ppg, 3-5 apg player with a 2.5 A:TO ratio moving forward, I'll feel pretty good about our PG situation.
- Jeremy Roach's 2pt shooting and off-the-dribble play. Over the two games since his return, Roach has been really effective in scoring off the dribble. He's shooting 66.7% on 2s over that stretch. It's what made him an exciting prospect coming into this season: the ability to create points off the dribble. He's one of the few guys on the roster who can consistently do that when healthy. It's nice to see it resurfacing now.

If Filipowski and Proctor continue to play like they have the last few games, I think they can form an excellent 1-2 punch on offense. Especially with Young as a multifaceted post conduit for them. I think there is a real opportunity for success offensively there.

Where I think we need to improve:
- Crunch time/key play decision-making and execution. We've managed a 3-possession second-half lead in each of the last 3 games. We just haven't been able to sustain it, and as such we have two losses and a close win out of those 3 games. Whether it is fatigue or losing focus at the wrong times, we need to improve in that area. Because all three of these last 3 games were winnable with a bit more poise and better decision-making/execution.
- Roach's and Grandison's 3pt shooting. With Whitehead out, we're going to need guys to space the floor for Filipowski, Young, and the guards' drives. Those two guys have to be better than the 5-21 between them from 3 over the past 4 games. I don't expect Roach to be a high-percentage 3pt shooter, but he needs to be a 30+% guy on reasonable volume. And Grandison needs to be a 35+% guy for us.
- Lively needs to continue to improve on avoiding fouls and providing a more consistent defensive presence. He was absolutely fabulous against Miami. But unfortunately he just hasn't been able to put that sort of performance together with anything remotely resembling consistency. I don't expect 10 boards and 5 blocks regularly, but he needs to be more of a presence more consistently. And step one is being available. Right now, he's still way too foul prone.

If those things happen, I think we can still be a very good team. The sooner the better obviously. But I think there's still plenty of opportunity for growth.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Obviously last night was a frustrating loss. We saw some really good things (great start, excellent offensive results overall, cut down on the turnovers and shot well) and some bad things (terrible defense, crucial missed free throws, not finishing off the win), and some terrible things (the injury to Whitehead, the throat shot). With that result, it's going to be a fight to get anywhere near where we've typically finished the season in the last decade. And most likely we won't get there. But I'm less interested in guessing whether we'll make the unlikely jump to a 3-4 seed or whether we'll wind up on the bubble or something in between. What I'm interested in discussing/thinking about is the path to success moving forward this season, whatever "success" turns out to be.

Things I'm growing quite comfortable with:
- Filipowski. Full disclosure: after the Clemson game, I posted a thread about his inefficiency and overuse. He was generally too turnover-happy and very ineffiicient as a shooter/scorer. To his credit, with the week off after that game he has made some adjustments and completely changed the narrative. Over the past two games, he has averaged 23 ppg, 12 rpg, 2 apg, 2 spg, 1 bpg, and a 4:1 A:TO ratio, along with shooting 50% on 2s and 45.5% on 3s. He's been completely magnificent. I'm comfortable that he's figured out how to avoid those turnovers, and in doing so his decisionmaking is allowing him to dominate. He's filling that lead dog role that we expected Whitehead to fill.
- Young's offense: in conference play, he remains our best player in terms of PER, WS/40, and total win shares. For the season, he's tops in those categories plus BPM (BPM isn't available for conference play, otherwise he'd be tops there too). Is he limited? Absolutely. Is he playing at his ceiling right now? Almost certainly. But what he provides is a very savvy, veteran offensive player who produces, and provides excellent defensive rebounding as well.
- Mitchell as a Swiss-army knife defender. He's long, rangy, athletic, and tenacious, and has generally been a very good on-ball defender. He hasn't won every matchup (stronger bigs can give him trouble), but his versatility is a nice boost.

Things I'm warming up to:
- Proctor at PG. It's a small sample size, and there are still some warts on display, but here's what Proctor has done over the last 4 games: 13 ppg (on 11.3 FGA), 3.5 apg, 2.8 rpg, and a nearly 3:1 A:TO ratio. He's still not shooting as well as we'd like from a lead guard, but he's improving: 30.8% from 3 in that span. He has tallied 5+ assists in 2 of those 4 games and double-digit points in all 4. If he can be a 12-14 ppg, 3-5 apg player with a 2.5 A:TO ratio moving forward, I'll feel pretty good about our PG situation.
- Jeremy Roach's 2pt shooting and off-the-dribble play. Over the two games since his return, Roach has been really effective in scoring off the dribble. He's shooting 66.7% on 2s over that stretch. It's what made him an exciting prospect coming into this season: the ability to create points off the dribble. He's one of the few guys on the roster who can consistently do that when healthy. It's nice to see it resurfacing now.

If Filipowski and Proctor continue to play like they have the last few games, I think they can form an excellent 1-2 punch on offense. Especially with Young as a multifaceted post conduit for them. I think there is a real opportunity for success offensively there.

Where I think we need to improve:
- Crunch time/key play decision-making and execution. We've managed a 3-possession second-half lead in each of the last 3 games. We just haven't been able to sustain it, and as such we have two losses and a close win out of those 3 games. Whether it is fatigue or losing focus at the wrong times, we need to improve in that area. Because all three of these last 3 games were winnable with a bit more poise and better decision-making/execution.
- Roach's and Grandison's 3pt shooting. With Whitehead out, we're going to need guys to space the floor for Filipowski, Young, and the guards' drives. Those two guys have to be better than the 5-21 between them from 3 over the past 4 games. I don't expect Roach to be a high-percentage 3pt shooter, but he needs to be a 30+% guy on reasonable volume. And Grandison needs to be a 35+% guy for us.
- Lively needs to continue to improve on avoiding fouls and providing a more consistent defensive presence. He was absolutely fabulous against Miami. But unfortunately he just hasn't been able to put that sort of performance together with anything remotely resembling consistency. I don't expect 10 boards and 5 blocks regularly, but he needs to be more of a presence more consistently. And step one is being available. Right now, he's still way too foul prone.

If those things happen, I think we can still be a very good team. The sooner the better obviously. But I think there's still plenty of opportunity for growth.

Nice post. I'm a little more pessimistic than you on "Where we need to improve".

One major area is 3pt shooting. Now that Whitehead is out, our starting 5 is horrible at 3s. The Roach-Proctor combo is probably the worst 3pt shooting backcourt in the ACC. Mitchell was only shot 5 threes in the last 6 games (and made only 1 of them). Last night was the first game since November 27 where Flip made more than 1 three. Without the 3, Duke is that much easier to guard.

[superdave]

Nice post. I'm a little more pessimistic than you on "Where we need to improve".

One major area is 3pt shooting. Now that Whitehead is out, our starting 5 is horrible at 3s. The Roach-Proctor combo is probably the worst 3pt shooting backcourt in the ACC. Mitchell was only shot 5 threes in the last 6 games (and made only 1 of them). Last night was the first game since November 27 where Flip made more than 1 three. Without the 3, Duke is that much easier to guard.

If we are going to continue to shoot around 32% from 3 for the season, then I want more set plays, more backdoor picks, more crashing the boards.

I want a lot less of the ineffective dribble-handoffs and one-on-one play we have been seeing. We dont have that kind of creator on the team, and need to put these guys in better position to score.

[Kedsy]

Lively needs to continue to improve on avoiding fouls and providing a more consistent defensive presence.

Thanks, CDu. I think this can be a good discussion.

I think the rotation may be a concern moving forward. Normally, I'm on the side of young-players-don't-get-tired-by-lots-of-minutes, but our top five guys looked gassed at the end, last night. Maybe because they're not used to playing so much with Coach Scheyer having employed a deeper rotation. But especially if Whitehead is going to miss extended time, I think multiple people need to be given an opportunity to step up.

Lively is my top guy here. He's played 15 or fewer minutes in 6 of our last 7 games (and he only had 18 mins in the seventh game), and he's only been in foul trouble in one (maybe two) of them. Coach doesn't appear to trust him with more minutes, but I think we need him playing more than 20 mpg (I'd personally prefer 25-ish) for this team to make a serious run.

Grandison has played fewer than 10 minutes in three of our past seven games. Obviously if Whitehead is out, he'll play more. But how much more?

Blakes has played just 5 minutes in each of our last two games. Is that because of the broken nose, or has Coach decided he's not helping enough to earn more time?

Schutt hasn't played at all in our last five games. I assume there are reasons for that. But he does bring something we need to the table. And if Coach Scheyer really doesn't have confidence in more than one of Lively, Grandison, and Blakes, there are available minutes for further down the bench.

In our past two games, the bench (other than Roach) has only played an average of 37 minutes. Without Whitehead, if that number doesn't increase it would mean our five starters would be averaging close to 33 mpg. That includes Ryan Young, who I think has to top out at 25 to 28 minutes and should probably be closer to 20. While Whitehead is out (which I guess might be the rest of the season), if we assume Young and Lively will split 40 minutes, then even if Grandison increases to 25 mpg, the other four starters have to play 32.5 mpg if Blakes only plays 5 mpg and Schutt doesn't play. Can Jeremy Roach do that with his lingering injury? Do we want the other freshmen playing that much?

I guess this is a long-winded way to say that with our personnel we kind of have to play a true 8-man (probably an 8.5-man rotation), and without Whitehead I'm not sure how that happens if Coach has no faith in Schutt and he's losing faith in Blakes (though I don't know if the latter is really true).

[CDu]

I think the rotation may be a concern moving forward. Normally, I'm on the side of young-players-don't-get-tired-by-lots-of-minutes, but our top five guys looked gassed at the end, last night. Maybe because they're not used to playing so much with Coach Scheyer having employed a deeper rotation. But especially if Whitehead is going to miss extended time, I think multiple people need to be given an opportunity to step up.

Yeah, thanks Kedsy for highlighting a point that I kind of hinted at but didn't address. I do think that a lot of our failure to hold/maintain those second-half leads is probably a function of fatigue. Scheyer really rode a 6.5 man rotation in the second half the last few games. That can work if we have enough different offensive weapons to allow guys to take plays off. But when the same 2-3 (or in the worst case, 1) guys have to carry the offense, they can run out of gas.

I'd add too that it's probably not just minutes, but second-half/continual minutes. If Scheyer can figure out a way to steal a few minutes of rest for Filipowski in the second half, that would be great. Likewise, I don't think having Roach not come out of the game in the second half after entering was ideal for his freshness down the stretch.

The challenge of course is finding a balance between stealing those minutes of rest without losing momentum. And some of it may be a matter of avoiding falling behind in the first half and having to play catchup. But finding that balance would be nice.

Lively is my top guy here. He's played 15 or fewer minutes in 6 of our last 7 games (and he only had 18 mins in the seventh game), and he's only been in foul trouble in one (maybe two) of them. Coach doesn't appear to trust him with more minutes, but I think we need him playing more than 20 mpg (I'd personally prefer 25-ish) for this team to make a serious run.

Grandison has played fewer than 10 minutes in three of our past seven games. Obviously if Whitehead is out, he'll play more. But how much more?

I would expect Grandison to see the biggest increase in minutes, simply because he plays roughly the same position as Whitehead. Obviously Whitehead had the potential to do much more than Grandison can, but to this point in the season they've played fairly similar in role. So it makes sense in that regard to stick to that approach, just increasing the minutes for Grandison to somewhat offset the loss of Whitehead. The other benefit is - on the off-chance that Whitehead can return - you don't have to drastically revise what you are doing when he comes back.

I agree that getting Lively able to play more minutes would increase the team's ceiling. The challenge is that between foul trouble and inconsistency, combined with Young playing really well, it's been hard to justify playing Lively much more. Hopefully the Miami game is a hint of Lively getting more comfortable out there. But having said that, it's essentially a "six of one, half-dozen of the other situation" for him. More minutes for Lively just means fewer minutes for Young, because we aren't going to play those two guys together. So I don't see it as a means to fill in some of Whitehea

Blakes has played just 5 minutes in each of our last two games. Is that because of the broken nose, or has Coach decided he's not helping enough to earn more time?

Schutt hasn't played at all in our last five games. I assume there are reasons for that. But he does bring something we need to the table. And if Coach Scheyer really doesn't have confidence in more than one of Lively, Grandison, and Blakes, there are available minutes for further down the bench.

I think it's unlikely that Schutt breaks into the rotation, but I guess he might be the next most likely if we're going with the "use guys to fill the role that Whitehead had" approach. Grandison and Schutt are the most reasonable approximation of the shooting that Whitehead provided (which, unfortunately, was the only thing we saw with any consistency from Whitehead to this point). So if the staff wants to maintain the same structure of the offense, playing Grandison and Schutt might make more sense than Blakes.

Blakes has been an excellent defender, but his ballhandling is shaky and his shooting has generally been bad (outside of two magnificent games in December, he's a 25% 3pt shooter; and he looks every bit the part of that 25%). Not that Grandison and Whitehead have been great shooters, but they look the part. Having said that, if the team decides to change the approach and focuses on defense, perhaps Blakes picks up those minutes.

I guess this is a long-winded way to say that with our personnel we kind of have to play a true 8-man (probably an 8.5-man rotation), and without Whitehead I'm not sure how that happens if Coach has no faith in Schutt and he's losing faith in Blakes (though I don't know if the latter is really true).

I think we can succeed with a 7- or 7-5-man rotation. It's just that one of Grandison, Blakes, and Schutt has to step up into that role. Grandison seems the most likely having done so before, but really if we can get to the point where Scheyer trusts 7 guys to play legitimate minutes in the second half, we can probably make it work.

[UrinalCake]

Proctor has shown the most steady improvement over the course of the season, so in that respect he represents the highest upside and the most potential for the team to improve. I think our best chance of winning is scoring inside, strong defense, and winning the rebounding battle as we were doing earlier in the season. We have enough data to know we're a poor three point shooting team so we have to make up for it by grabbing offensive boards and not giving away possessions (yesterday's 7 TO was a great sign in that respect; the Miami game too). I also worry that Roach won't be able to play well on the back end of two-day turnarounds due to his lingering toe injury. Grandison is the guy I think needs to step up the most to replace Whitehead assuming he isn't coming back for a while if at all.

[fogey]

"Lively is my top guy here. He's played 15 or fewer minutes in 6 of our last 7 games (and he only had 18 mins in the seventh game), and he's only been in foul trouble in one (maybe two) of them. Coach doesn't appear to trust him with more minutes, but I think we need him playing more than 20 mpg (I'd personally prefer 25-ish) for this team to make a serious run."


Seriously, if Lively is tutored on low post footwork (likely took Ryan Young 4 years to master his moves) and could replicate Ryan's moves down low, he would become an absolute force. Slow mo, rinse and repeat, for as long as it takes so it becomes second nature. Ok all done here.

[CDu]

"Lively is my top guy here. He's played 15 or fewer minutes in 6 of our last 7 games (and he only had 18 mins in the seventh game), and he's only been in foul trouble in one (maybe two) of them. Coach doesn't appear to trust him with more minutes, but I think we need him playing more than 20 mpg (I'd personally prefer 25-ish) for this team to make a serious run."


Seriously, if Lively is tutored on low post footwork (likely took Ryan Young 4 years to master his moves) and could replicate Ryan's moves down low, he would become an absolute force. Slow mo, rinse and repeat, for as long as it takes so it becomes second nature. Ok all done here.

If only it was that easy. Developing those low-post moves - most notably in concert with shooting tough - can take years. Young has had a lot more time working to develop those skills due to his inferior run/jump athleticism.

[flyingdutchdevil]

"Lively is my top guy here. He's played 15 or fewer minutes in 6 of our last 7 games (and he only had 18 mins in the seventh game), and he's only been in foul trouble in one (maybe two) of them. Coach doesn't appear to trust him with more minutes, but I think we need him playing more than 20 mpg (I'd personally prefer 25-ish) for this team to make a serious run."


Seriously, if Lively is tutored on low post footwork (likely took Ryan Young 4 years to master his moves) and could replicate Ryan's moves down low, he would become an absolute force. Slow mo, rinse and repeat, for as long as it takes so it becomes second nature. Ok all done here.

Lively is not going to learn footwork in the next 2 months. He's just not.

Lively is not going to learn to shoot in the next 2 months. He's just not.

Lively is not going to be a scorer the next 2 months. He's just not.

Now, can Lively/the team do a better job of getting Lively into easy scoring positions? Like tons of pick-n-rolls? Can Lively be better on the offensive glass? Can Lively do more than just set screens? I think the answer to all of those is 'yes'. No idea if it's Lively or the coaching staff not prioritizing Lively's offense, but I'd like to see it.

[Southgate0809]

The most troublesome thing to me is Whitehead's injury. We seem to be drastically improving as a team every single game. We definitely let shooters get open too often in the first half, but I don't think it was that bad of a defensive performance. If we had done that, and Virginia Tech shot 50% from 3 in the first half instead of 70%, we would have won the game. Some of their 3's were too open, but they also hit some really tough shots. This was a game that the 2010 or 2015 could have easily lost, and by more than 3 points. The loss itself isn't discouraging to me. I hate losing to Virginia Tech (I'm from Virginia, and their fans are the worst), and I'm absolutely furious about the no-call, but forgets wins and losses for a minute. If the steady improvement continues, I think we can play with anyone by March (with a healthy Whitehead). Without him, obviously, we're less optimistic. Does Schutt make a Grayson Allen-type late season run? I think it's more likely that Grandison and Blakes get more minutes.

[simplyluvin]

Nice post. I'm a little more pessimistic than you on "Where we need to improve".

One major area is 3pt shooting. Now that Whitehead is out, our starting 5 is horrible at 3s. The Roach-Proctor combo is probably the worst 3pt shooting backcourt in the ACC. Mitchell was only shot 5 threes in the last 6 games (and made only 1 of them). Last night was the first game since November 27 where Flip made more than 1 three. Without the 3, Duke is that much easier to guard.

Yup, 3pt shooting AND perimeter defense (although I may be mired in recency bias because of the last two games). Aside from the individual improvements, we just need to shoot better. Also our late game play was better last night, but we need to see improvement there, and I think we will as the season goes on.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yup, 3pt shooting AND perimeter defense (although I may be mired in recency bias because of the last two games). Aside from the individual improvements, we just need to shoot better. Also our late game play was better last night, but we need to see improvement there, and I think we will as the season goes on.

Our three best 3pt shooters - Schutt, Grandison, and Whitehead - aren't playing or can't paly. As others have pointed out, Grandison had less than 10 minutes in 3 of the last 7 ACC games. Schutt cannot get off the bench. Whitehead looks to be out at least quite a few games.

One of our 2 lead guards - Roach - has always been a 'meh' 3pt shooter. The other - despite good form and a clear greenlight from the coaching staff - is terrible at 3s. Remember Trevon Duval, who everyone ragged on for poor 3pt shooting? That dude shot 29% from 3, or 300+ basis points higher than Proctor.

I get Proctor is our best distributor and Roach is our leader. But you gotta get some shooters out there on the floor. Play Grandison and Schutt more!

[CDu]

Yup, 3pt shooting AND perimeter defense (although I may be mired in recency bias because of the last two games). Aside from the individual improvements, we just need to shoot better. Also our late game play was better last night, but we need to see improvement there, and I think we will as the season goes on.

For the season our 3pt defense is actually quite good. It was bad against VT and Miami. But it's been good on the season.

[CDu]

Lively is not going to learn footwork in the next 2 months. He's just not.

Lively is not going to learn to shoot in the next 2 months. He's just not.

Lively is not going to be a scorer the next 2 months. He's just not.

Now, can Lively/the team do a better job of getting Lively into easy scoring positions? Like tons of pick-n-rolls? Can Lively be better on the offensive glass? Can Lively do more than just set screens? I think the answer to all of those is 'yes'. No idea if it's Lively or the coaching staff not prioritizing Lively's offense, but I'd like to see it.

Yeah, I agree. I don't expect Lively to show any more offensive skill this season than he's currently showing. What I hope is that he can cut down the foul rate and become a more consistently excellent defensive presence (those two points are related), and that he can be an opportunistic fifth option on offense.

If he can do that, he can probably push his minutes up into the 20+ range, provided that we are able to get more offense from our guards/wings (Proctor's recent play is a good sign) and Flip can continue his dominant play.

[DukieInBrasil]

The most troublesome thing to me is Whitehead's injury. We seem to be drastically improving as a team every single game. We definitely let shooters get open too often in the first half, but I don't think it was that bad of a defensive performance. If we had done that, and Virginia Tech shot 50% from 3 in the first half instead of 70%, we would have won the game. Some of their 3's were too open, but they also hit some really tough shots. This was a game that the 2010 or 2015 could have easily lost, and by more than 3 points. The loss itself isn't discouraging to me. I hate losing to Virginia Tech (I'm from Virginia, and their fans are the worst), and I'm absolutely furious about the no-call, but forgets wins and losses for a minute. If the steady improvement continues, I think we can play with anyone by March (with a healthy Whitehead). Without him, obviously, we're less optimistic. Does Schutt make a Grayson Allen-type late season run? I think it's more likely that Grandison and Blakes get more minutes.

the first half, and in particular the 5- 15 minutes stretch of it, was some of the worst defense ever played. Duke was on pace to let VT score 130 points for the game. We were leaving great 3pt shooters wide. the. f. open. They deserved to shoot 70% from 3 b/c we let them have incredibly open shots.
As for the rest, i agree, the throat-punch no-call is as galling as it gets, and I too have seen lots of improvements that show up in flashes for a few minutes and then disappear, or as was the case last night, were completely absent for 1/4 of the game, and then suddenly re-appeared. I just hope the team improves from one game to the next.

[DukieInBrasil]

Our three best 3pt shooters - Schutt, Grandison, and Whitehead - aren't playing or can't paly. As others have pointed out, Grandison had less than 10 minutes in 3 of the last 7 ACC games. Schutt cannot get off the bench. Whitehead looks to be out at least quite a few games.

One of our 2 lead guards - Roach - has always been a 'meh' 3pt shooter. The other - despite good form and a clear greenlight from the coaching staff - is terrible at 3s. Remember Trevon Duval, who everyone ragged on for poor 3pt shooting? That dude shot 29% from 3, a 300+ basis points higher than Proctor.

I get Proctor is our best distributor and Roach is our leader. But you gotta get some shooters out there on the floor. Play Grandison and Schutt more!

We need for both Roach and Proctor to shoot fewer 3s, which ties in with, they both need to be much more selective about when they shoot 3s. I'd love to see Grandison get more shots on post-touch redirect passes.
I agree with CDu that improvements from Filipowski and Proctor are key. Now, if Lively can show the % improvement that Flip n Ty have, then that could help take this team up a notch. Mitchell hasn't really shown any improvement this year, but he has been good and very steadily good throughout the year. Young also continues to be the same player he has been, and that is fine. Grandison has shown no improvement this year, and actually a large regression from his stats from last year. Blakes had a pair of phenomenal games, has improved from last year, but otherwise has not really improved during the course of this year. The biggest disappointment has been the captain Jeremy Roach who is essentially the same player he was last year, and a decent argument could be made that he is playing worse this year than last (all of his shooting %s are lower, his assist rate is the same, but turnovers are up, but he is stealing the ball at a slightly higher rate), and he definitely has not improved during the course of the year. The worst part is that his feel for the game is as bad or worse than it was last year. He's got a quick first step that can get past his initial defender but after that it's hard to know what he's good at.
I think Jon and the staff need to be much more dedicated to calling plays for this team, since they don't have a single player on the team who is consistently good at creating or knowing how to attack the defense.

[kako]

Excellent OP. 5 thoughts:

1. I have no problem playing Grandison more. I've already posted my thoughts on him in other strings, but his best feature (to date) has been his knowing where to be and when to be there. The ball doesn't stick with him. If he can hit more shots, all the better.

2. I think Duke should play to its strengths. Which means play the "we're taller" card more often. Get points in the lane, get more rebounds because 2's don't kick out as much as 3's. To get Flip some minutes of rest (agree that's needed), play a high low game with Lively and Young. And Flip, god love him, should avoid taking so many 3's. Maybe there should be a rule - you drop below 33% from 3 in a game and you've shot more than one 3, it's the lane for you. He's fast enough to get past most bigs on the perimeter and get into the lane (maybe do more isos for him?). BTW, did we talk about his euro step last game?

3. Gotta stick with Proctor at the point. I can't see more improvement with another option. Those that have seen his play in AUS say he can hit 3's. Maybe they will come, maybe not. But it's becoming clear Duke is best with him at the point. He can be a pass-first PG, though if he's wide open in the flow of the offense, he can and should launch it.

4. I say enough about Schutt. For now. He's clearly not in the rotation. Scheyer may be first year HC, but he's not stupid. And he was a shooter himself. So if Schutt isn't playing, I'm sure there's good reason. Scheyer isn't going to air dirty laundry in public (if there is any, other than he's not ready for ACC play).

5. Agree that Lively needs to stay on the floor. He reaches way too much. A zone may help him stay in position and avoid fouls. And if they get beat, our other guys don't have to foul because there's our shot blocker in the lane.

9F

[flyingdutchdevil]

Excellent OP. 5 thoughts:

1. I have no problem playing Grandison more. I've already posted my thoughts on him in other strings, but his best feature (to date) has been his knowing where to be and when to be there. The ball doesn't stick with him. If he can hit more shots, all the better.

2. I think Duke should play to its strengths. Which means play the "we're taller" card more often. Get points in the lane, get more rebounds because 2's don't kick out as much as 3's. To get Flip some minutes of rest (agree that's needed), play a high low game with Lively and Young. And Flip, god love him, should avoid taking so many 3's. Maybe there should be a rule - you drop below 33% from 3 in a game and you've shot more than one 3, it's the lane for you. He's fast enough to get past most bigs on the perimeter and get into the lane (maybe do more isos for him?). BTW, did we talk about his euro step last game?

3. Gotta stick with Proctor at the point. I can't see more improvement with another option. Those that have seen his play in AUS say he can hit 3's. Maybe they will come, maybe not. But it's becoming clear Duke is best with him at the point. He can be a pass-first PG, though if he's wide open in the flow of the offense, he can and should launch it.

4. I say enough about Schutt. For now. He's clearly not in the rotation. Scheyer may be first year HC, but he's not stupid. And he was a shooter himself. So if Schutt isn't playing, I'm sure there's good reason. Scheyer isn't going to air dirty laundry in public (if there is any, other than he's not ready for ACC play).

5. Agree that Lively needs to stay on the floor. He reaches way too much. A zone may help him stay in position and avoid fouls. And if they get beat, our other guys don't have to foul because there's our shot blocker in the lane.

9F

I can't see that happening. The combined shooting range of the two players is ~8 feet. It's easy to guard Duke with both those players in the game. Also, neither demands a double team (and in many cases, Lively's man can easily play help D) and Duke doesn't have the shooters to make that tandem effective.

At the 5, it's either Lively or Young or neither. 'Both' just isn't an option.

[kako]

I can't see that happening. The combined shooting range of the two players is ~8 feet. It's easy to guard Duke with both those players in the game. Also, neither demands a double team (and in many cases, Lively's man can easily play help D) and Duke doesn't have the shooters to make that tandem effective.

At the 5, it's either Lively or Young or neither. 'Both' just isn't an option.

I'd like to see it tried. Young is high, moves take his defender with him. If not, Young's ability to see the court and pass wherever would be an advantage. That frees the lane up for Lively to move, especially with a screen so he can get to the rim. Or Young gets the hockey assist by passing to someone who alley oops to Lively. These would be set plays, not motion offense.

9F

[bshrader]

I'd like to see it tried. Young is high, moves take his defender with him. If not, Young's ability to see the court and pass wherever would be an advantage. That frees the lane up for Lively to move, especially with a screen so he can get to the rim. Or Young gets the hockey assist by passing to someone who alley oops to Lively. These would be set plays, not motion offense.

9F

But then Young's defender would just sag, and dare him to take a jump shot much farther out than he's comfortable taking. And now, not only have you weakened your offensive set, you weaken your offensive rebounding prowess by pulling Young that far out.